北京西北活动构造定量资料与未来强震地点的讨论   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：9       下载免费PDF全文

冉勇康  陈立春  徐锡伟 《地震学报》2001,23(5):502-513

通过阐述北京西北的活动构造定量数据及其精度，用确定性方法、概率方法和综合评分方法，通过排队，比较出北京西北及邻近地区未来强震可能发生的地点，讨论预测结果中存在的一些问题．结果显示，未来强震最危险的断裂段为:阳原盆地南缘断裂B段和A段、延矾盆地的燕水段、宣化盆地南缘断裂、怀安镇南缘断裂东段和阳高——天镇北缘断裂东段等段落．亦即阳原-深井盆地为最危险区；天镇-怀安镇-宣化盆地为次危险区；万全-张家口和蔚县东北-矾山西南为更次危险区．   相似文献   

Timing of low-temperature metamorphism and cooling of the Paleozoic and Mesozoic formations of the Bükkium,innermost Western Carpathians,Hungary     

P. Árkai  K. Balogh  I. Dunkl 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1995,84(2):334-344

K-Ar ages of illite-muscovite and fission track ages of zircon and apatite were determined from various lithotypes of the Bükkium, which forms the innermost segment of the Western Carpathians. The stratigraphic ages of these Dinaric type formations cover a wide range from the Late Ordovician up to the Late Jurassic. The grade of the orogenic dynamo-thermal metamorphism varies from the late diagenetic zone through the anchizone up to the epizone (chlorite, maximally biotite isograd of the greenschist facies). The K-Ar system of the illite-muscovite in the < 2 m grain-size fraction approached equilibrium only in epizonal and high-temperature anchizonal conditions. The orogenic metamorphism culminated between the eo-Hellenic (160-120 Ma) phase connected to the beginning of the subduction in the Dinarides, and the Austrian (100-95 Ma) phase characterized by compressional crustal thickening. No isotope geochronological evidence was found for proving any Hercynian recrystallization. The stability field of fission tracks in zircon was approached using the thermal histories of the different tectonic units. A temperature less than 250°C and effective heating time of 20–30 Ma had only negligible effects on the tracks, whereas total annealing was reached between 250 and 300°C. Apatite fission track ages from the Paleozoic and Mesozoic formations show that the uplift of the Bükk Mountains occurred only in the Tertiary (not earlier than ca. 40 Ma ago). Thermal modeling based on apatite fission track length spectra and preserved Paleogene sediment thickness data proved that the Late Neogene burial of the recently exhumed plateau of the Bükk Mountains exceeded 1 km.  相似文献   

Quaternary changes in delivery and accumulation of organic matter in sediments of Lake Biwa, Japan     

Philip A. Meyers  Keiji Takemura 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1997,18(3):211-218

A 911-m-long sediment core from Lake Biwa, Japan, provides a record of organic matter delivery and accumulation in this large lake during a succession of tectonic and climatic changes dating back to the latest Pliocene. Sediments deposited since 430 ky are profundal; older sediments vary in setting between shallow-water and fluviodeltaic conditions, with occasional deep-water intervals. C/N ratios identify algal production as the dominant source of organic matter throughout the core, although the proportion of land-derived contributions episodically increases in the fluviodeltaic and shallow-water sediments. Rates of organic matter delivery and burial in lake sediments change in response to glacial-interglacial climate changes over the past 430 ky. Sediments deposited during interglacial intervals have organic carbon mass accumulation rates up to 9 times greater than those from glacial intervals, reflecting interglacial climates that were wetter than glacial climates. Algal production of organic matter increased during interglacial times because of greater wash-in of soil nutrients, and organic matter preservation was enhanced because of faster sedimentation rates.  相似文献   

半干旱半湿润地区洪水预报模型适用性研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘郁  赵兰兰  马丁 《水文》2016,36(1):32-36

针对半干旱半湿润地区的流域特性和产汇流特点,比较了河北雨洪模型和新安江模型的模型原理和模型特性,以滦河支流老牛河流域为例,开展了洪水预报适用性研究。结果表明,河北雨洪模型的预报精度较高,更适用于半干旱半湿润地区的洪水预报。  相似文献   

Mapping rice-fallow cropland areas for short-season grain legumes intensification in South Asia using MODIS 250 m time-series data     

Murali Krishna Gumma  Prasad S. Thenkabail  Pardharsadhi Teluguntla  Mahesh N. Rao  Irshad A. Mohammed  Anthony M. Whitbread 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2016,9(10):981-1003

The goal of this study was to map rainfed and irrigated rice-fallow cropland areas across South Asia, using MODIS 250?m time-series data and identify where the farming system may be intensified by the inclusion of a short-season crop during the fallow period. Rice-fallow cropland areas are those areas where rice is grown during the kharif growing season (June–October), followed by a fallow during the rabi season (November–February). These cropland areas are not suitable for growing rabi-season rice due to their high water needs, but are suitable for a short -season (≤3 months), low water-consuming grain legumes such as chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.), black gram, green gram, and lentils. Intensification (double-cropping) in this manner can improve smallholder farmer’s incomes and soil health via rich nitrogen-fixation legume crops as well as address food security challenges of ballooning populations without having to expand croplands. Several grain legumes, primarily chickpea, are increasingly grown across Asia as a source of income for smallholder farmers and at the same time providing rich and cheap source of protein that can improve the nutritional quality of diets in the region. The suitability of rainfed and irrigated rice-fallow croplands for grain legume cultivation across South Asia were defined by these identifiers: (a) rice crop is grown during the primary (kharif) crop growing season or during the north-west monsoon season (June–October); (b) same croplands are left fallow during the second (rabi) season or during the south-east monsoon season (November–February); and (c) ability to support low water-consuming, short-growing season (≤3 months) grain legumes (chickpea, black gram, green gram, and lentils) during rabi season. Existing irrigated or rainfed crops such as rice or wheat that were grown during kharif were not considered suitable for growing during the rabi season, because the moisture/water demand of these crops is too high. The study established cropland classes based on the every 16-day 250?m normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series for one year (June 2010–May 2011) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, using spectral matching techniques (SMTs), and extensive field knowledge. Map accuracy was evaluated based on independent ground survey data as well as compared with available sub-national level statistics. The producers’ and users’ accuracies of the cropland fallow classes were between 75% and 82%. The overall accuracy and the kappa coefficient estimated for rice classes were 82% and 0.79, respectively. The analysis estimated approximately 22.3?Mha of suitable rice-fallow areas in South Asia, with 88.3% in India, 0.5% in Pakistan, 1.1% in Sri Lanka, 8.7% in Bangladesh, 1.4% in Nepal, and 0.02% in Bhutan. Decision-makers can target these areas for sustainable intensification of short-duration grain legumes.  相似文献   

三维插值方法在2 m温度评估中的应用     

赵滨  李子良  张博 《南京气象学院学报》2016,8(4):343-355

模式地形与实况站点地形高度间固有差异严重影响了2 m温度检验评估精度,传统二维插值方法仅满足预报要素与实况观测间经纬度二维空间上的一致性,而忽略了垂直方向的一致性问题,使得检验评估中预报与观测不在同一三维空间上进行检验,从而引起严重的评估误导.利用模式三维预报变量,结合近地面要素预报产品,建立新的近地面要素三维插值方法,以确保预报与观测在三维空间上保持一致性.利用2013年7月整月24 h预报产品与观测的对比分析发现,新插值方法有效地改进了由于地形误差引起的评估误导问题,在不同地形高度条件下均保持了较为一致的误差分布趋势,显示其评估结论不受地形因素影响,具有更好的实际应用价值.进一步关注新插值方法在复杂地形区不同模拟分辨率条件下的评估改进效果,采用GRAPES区域预报模式（GRAPES-MESO4.0）针对2012年7月个例,对青藏高原复杂地形区进行了不同分辨率（45、15、5和2 km）条件下的60 h模拟敏感分析,结果表明新插值方法在高分辨率条件下（2 km）依然显示出明显的改进优势.  相似文献   

盐碱地中华绒螯蟹育苗水质调配技术的研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

肖国强  潘鲁青  栾治华  王桓台  王国峰 《海洋科学》2003,27(12):1-4

研究了地下卤水中Na^ ／K^ 对中华绒螫蟹(Eriocheir sinensis)幼体生长发育的影响以及幼体对人工海水盐度的适应性。结果表明：随着地下卤水中Na^ ／K^ 的降低，中华绒螫蟹幼体存活率、变态率和体质量增长率逐渐升高，当地下卤水中的Na^ ／K^ 低于18、6时，中华绒螯蟹幼体的存活率、变态率和体质量增长率与海水对照相比差异不显著；人工海水盐度梯度设置为18～26，Z1→Z2、Z3→Z4、Z5→M各阶段不同处理组幼体存活率和体质量增长率差异显著，而变态率差异基本不显著，各阶段的最适盐度分别为20，22和20。  相似文献   

北京地区一次强沙尘暴过程的大气边界层结构和湍流通量输送特征   总被引：15，自引：6，他引：9  

彭珍  刘熙明  洪钟祥  王丙兰 《气候与环境研究》2007,12(3):267-276

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所北京325 m气象塔的风速和温度平均场观测资料和湍流资料,以及北京市气象台地面常规气象资料和逐日08:00和20:00(北京时间)的探空资料,分析了2002年3月18～22日沙尘暴过境前后北京城市边界层结构特征和湍流输送特征,结果表明:1)在沙尘暴爆发前,边界层中水平风速一直较小;气温较高,大气层结稳定,在边界层上部有强大的逆温层.随着冷锋过境,沙尘暴爆发,边界层中水平风速和平均湍流速度急剧增强;温度也突然变化,先迅速增强后又持续下降,逆温层迅速被破坏.2)沙尘暴初期,280 m上为系统性上升气流,而47和120 m则为系统性的下沉气流.随着沙尘暴爆发,湍流动能、向下传输的动量以及向上传输的感热也迅速增大,并且120 m高度的湍能、动量通量以及感热通量明显高于47和280 m,这与北京的局地环流有关.3)本次沙尘暴过程中,120和47 m层的摩擦速度都明显超过了北京的临界摩擦速度,表明局地起沙也是本次沙尘暴过程中北京沙尘的一个重要沙源.  相似文献   

Grapes模式预报西南地区夏季2m温度的检验评估     

康岚  冯汉中  屠妮妮  徐琳娜  陈静 《四川气象》2009,(2)

利用西南地区2004、2005年夏季的实况温度对G rapes模式输出的2m温度预报产品进行检验,结果表明,不管是单日预报误差还是月平均预报误差,都没有随预报时效的延长而增大,对四川盆地大部分地区,模式预报温度偏高,对重庆、云南、贵州及川西高原南部的温度预报,基本上表现为14时偏高,02时偏低,对川西高原北部和西藏则表现为预报温度偏低。分析表明,模式中对高原地形处理的不真实是温度预报产生误差的重要原因之一,利用回归分析方法能对模式温度预报进行有效的订正。检验分析结果为进一步改进模式,提高要素预报产品质量提供了一定的依据。  相似文献   

Modeling Atmospheric Chemistry: Interactions between Gas-Phase Species and Liquid Cloud/Aerosol Particles     

Rolf Sander 《Surveys in Geophysics》1999,20(1):1-31

For detailed modeling of atmospheric chemistry it is necessary to consider aqueous-phase reactions in cloud droplets and deliquesced aerosol particles. Often, the gas-phase concentration is in equilibrium with the aqueous phase. Then Henrys law can be used to describe the distribution between the phases provided that the Henrys law coefficient is known. In some cases, thermodynamic equilibrium will not be reached and it is necessary to use kinetic expressions of the rates involved. These rates depend on diffusion constants, accommodation coefficients, Henrys law coefficients, particle size distributions, and several other parameters. This review describes how these processes can be treated in computer modeling and how the necessary data can be obtained. Even though it is written primarily for use in modeling atmospheric chemistry, some parts will also be useful for waste water and pesticide control and in other areas where the distribution of chemicals between the aqueous and the gas phase is important.  相似文献