基于CNOP方法的台风目标观测中三种敏感区 确定方案的比较研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周菲凡  张贺 《大气科学》2014,38(2):261-272

在目标观测中,敏感区的确定是个关键性的问题。本文详细研究了如何用条件非线性最优扰动（CNOP）方法确定敏感区。提出了三种确定敏感区的方案:水平投影方案、单点能量投影方案以及垂直积分能量方案。比较了三种方案确定的敏感区的差异,分析了它们所阐释的物理意义,讨论了它们的优缺点,并通过理想回报试验考查了不同方案确定的敏感区的有效性。对六个台风个例的应用结果显示,单点能量投影方案与垂直积分能量方案下识别的敏感区较为相似,二者与水平投影方案确定的敏感区则有较大的区别。两种能量方案确定的敏感区更多地反映了环境场对台风的影响,而水平投影方案则反映了台风自身对流不对称性结构对台风发展变化的影响。理想回报试验结果表明,由两种能量方案确定的敏感区对预报误差能量的减小程度以及路径预报的改善程度都要大于水平投影方案确定的敏感区的效果,且垂直积分能量方案确定的敏感区的有效性最高。而在强度预报方面,三种方案对预报效果的改善程度相当。因此,总的说在台风目标观测研究中,利用CNOP方法确定敏感区时,垂直积分能量方案是较佳的方案。  相似文献   

Coupled analysis of nonlinear sloshing and ship motions     

《Applied Ocean Research》2014

A coupled numerical model considering nonlinear sloshing flows and the linear ship motions has been developed based on a boundary element method. Hydrodynamic performances of a tank containing internal fluid under regular wave excitations in sway are investigated by the present time-domain simulation model and comparative model tests. The numerical model features well the hydrodynamic performance of a tank and its internal sloshing flows obtained from the experiments. In particular, the numerical simulations of the strong nonlinear sloshing flows at the natural frequency have been validated. The influence of the excitation wave height and wave frequency on ship motions and internal sloshing has been investigated. The magnitude of the internal sloshing increases nonlinearly as the wave excitation increases. It is observed that the asymmetry of the internal sloshing relative to still water surface becomes more pronounced at higher wave excitation. The internal sloshing-induced wave elevation is found to be amplitude-modulated. The frequency of the amplitude modulation envelope is determined by the difference between the incident wave frequency and the natural frequency of the internal sloshing. Furthermore, the coupling mechanism between ship motions and internal sloshing is discussed.  相似文献   

中国雨季的一种客观定量划分   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

黄琰  张人禾  龚志强  冯爱霞 《气象学报》2014,72(6):1186-1204

从客观分析角度出发,利用有序样本最优分割法对中国610个台站的气候平均（1961—2010年）候降水序列进行有序分割,给出中国不同区域的雨季定量划分。根据中国13个区域候降水量的气候平均值分布特征,并基于有序样本最优分割法的划分结果需同时满足分割段内波动小、段间差异大的要求,确定了各区域的合理分割数,通过制定3种雨季划分方案,对中国区域雨季进行了细致的定量划分。第1种方案将全年降水划分为雨季和旱季,结果表明,雨、旱两季差异明显的地区出现在华南西部沿海和新疆邻近区域;第2种方案将全年降水划分为雨季相对干期、雨季相对湿期和旱季3个降水阶段,这种特征出现的区域为华南大部分地区、江南地区、长江中下游地区、西南地区东部和南部,以及西北地区中东部;第3种方案将全年降水划分为春雨季、主雨季、秋雨季和旱季,出现这种特征的区域为长三角及淮河流域、黄淮和华北地区、东北地区、西北地区中部、内蒙古地区西部、青藏高原中东部及其以东地区。与已有的中国不同区域降水特征研究结果的比较表明,有序样本最优分割法不仅对中国雨季的划分客观有效,且其划分结果合理并具有明确的气象意义。  相似文献   

Analytical solutions for nonlinear consolidation of soft soil around a shield tunnel with idealized sealing linings     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2014

This paper presents the analytical solutions for nonlinear consolidation of soft soil around a shield tunnel with idealized sealing linings. By introducing the empirical relation between permeability and compressibility, along with the conformal transformation, the governing equations of nonlinear consolidation are established, and the corresponding analytical solutions are derived. Then, the Terzaghi consolidation solutions are derived from the degenerate governing equation of nonlinear consolidation. Through the predictions of different consolidation theories in both completely permeable and impermeable lining conditions, the influences of a tunnel acting as a drain and impacting the dissipation of pore pressure, degree of consolidation, long-term ground settlements and ground settlement rates are investigated. During the early stages of consolidation, the case studies reveal that the predictions made by this study strongly agree with the field data when a completely permeable lining is applied. This study confirms that a tunnel acting as a drain can accelerate the consolidation of soil and enlarge soil deformation due to consolidation. During long term consolidation, a notable nonlinearity of the soil consolidation is exhibited by a small and gradually decreasing settlement rate, showing agreement with the tendency of field data from the impermeable conditions.  相似文献   

基于最佳用途的土地用途有偿管制机制探索     

赵淑芹 《国土资源情报》2014,(2):41-45

当前基于现状用途的管制存在管制方式偏行政化、管制手段无偿化导致农村集体土地收益偏向国有、非农产业和城市分配,重塑用途管制制度已显示出迫切性。本文探索基于最佳用途,通过"用途差"和"用途差"交易实现土地用途有偿管制的机制,认为通过用途有偿管制机制不仅可以保护农用地,特别是耕地资源,保障土地资源的可持续利用。而且,可激活土地资源价值,特别是有助于农用地资源资产、资本化,缩小农村、农业和农民家庭资产与收入与城镇的差距。  相似文献   

BIBLIOGRAPHIE     

A. BAUER 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):54-55

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.  相似文献   

A steady state of the disc dynamo     

Ladislav Kvasz  Dmitry Sokoloff  Anvar Shukurov 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-4):231-244

Abstract

We discuss the steady states of the αω-dynamo in a thin disc which arise due to α-quenching. Two asymptotic regimes are considered, one for the dynamo numberD near the generation thresholdD ₀, and the other for |D| ? 1. Asymptotic solutions for |D—D ₀| ? |D ₀| have a rather universal character provided only that the bifurcation is supercritical. For |D| ? 1 the asymptotic solution crucially depends on whether or not the mean helicity α, as a function ofB, has a positive root (hereB is the mean magnetic field). When such a root exists, the field value in the major portion of the disc is O(l), while near the disc surface thin boundary layers appear where the field rapidly decreases to zero (if the disc is surrounded by vacuum). Otherwise, when α = O(|B|^?s) for |B| → ∞, we demonstrate that |B| = O(|D|^1/s ) and the solution is free of boundary layers. The results obtained here admit direct comparison with observations of magnetic fields in spiral galaxies, so that an appropriate model of nonlinear galactic dynamos hopefully could be specified.  相似文献   

静力平衡近似下大气中非线性对称运动的稳定性、分岔和突变     

彭晓林  罗德海 《成都信息工程学院学报》1991,(Z1)

本文在考虑基本气流具有非线性切变情况下,导出了对称运动所满足的非线性常微分方程,并用非线性系统的稳定、分岔、突变理论,严格地讨论了非线性对称运动的稳定性、分岔和突变问题,获得了一个推广的对称不稳定判据,找到了突变产生的条件。  相似文献   

扩展SSH　Hubbard模型的晶格振动矩阵     

杨进 《成都信息工程学院学报》1996,(Z1)

在计及最近邻电子相互作用的扩展ＳＳＨＨｕｂｂａｒｄ模型时，得到了晶格振动矩阵，它对电子的正负自旋态对称和非对称的各类非线性元激发情形均适用。  相似文献   

非线性Lyapunov稳定性及Stern''''s Modons的稳定性判据     

罗德海 《成都信息工程学院学报》1993,(4)

本文在构造正压大气运动的浅水波模式的Hamilton守恒量和积分不变的Casimir泛函的基础上,建立了一个积分不变的Lyapunov函数,通过使用变分法,找出了正压旋转流体运动的非线性Lyapunov稳定性判据,并进一步讨论了Stern's Modons的稳定性。  相似文献