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131.
The aim of this paper is to assess the accuracy of an object-oriented classification of polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR) data to map and monitor crops using 19 RADARSAT-2 fine beam polarimetric (FQ) images of an agricultural area in North-eastern Ontario, Canada. Polarimetric images and field data were acquired during the 2011 and 2012 growing seasons. The classification and field data collection focused on the main crop types grown in the region, which include: wheat, oat, soybean, canola and forage. The polarimetric parameters were extracted with PolSAR analysis using both the Cloude–Pottier and Freeman–Durden decompositions. The object-oriented classification, with a single date of PolSAR data, was able to classify all five crop types with an accuracy of 95% and Kappa of 0.93; a 6% improvement in comparison with linear-polarization only classification. However, the time of acquisition is crucial. The larger biomass crops of canola and soybean were most accurately mapped, whereas the identification of oat and wheat were more variable. The multi-temporal data using the Cloude–Pottier decomposition parameters provided the best classification accuracy compared to the linear polarizations and the Freeman–Durden decomposition parameters. In general, the object-oriented classifications were able to accurately map crop types by reducing the noise inherent in the SAR data. Furthermore, using the crop classification maps we were able to monitor crop growth stage based on a trend analysis of the radar response. Based on field data from canola crops, there was a strong relationship between the phenological growth stage based on the BBCH scale, and the HV backscatter and entropy.  相似文献   
132.
While plant diseases have been the subject of scientific research, little is known about the perceptions of key actors towards plant disease risk within specific food sectors. Drawing on concepts of risk and uncertainty, and using in-depth interviews, this paper examines the ways in which endemic plant disease risks in the UK wheat sector are perceived and managed by key ‘upstream’ and ‘downstream’ businesses, as well as by farmers and agronomists. A majority of interviewees feel that plant disease is a controllable risk and one that rests mainly at the point of production (i.e. with farmers) within the wheat sector. This assumed ‘control’ is based mainly around the availability of plant protection products (e.g. fungicides) which reduce the sense of risk attributable to outbreaks of plant disease. As a consequence, there can be a tendency to grow higher-yielding wheat varieties that are less disease-resistant. The potential banning of certain fungicides under EU legislation and climate change are perceived future threats that could increase uncertainty and change the balance between ‘control’ and ‘resistance’, the latter through the use of more disease-resistant wheat varieties. Further research is needed on the perceived impacts of plant diseases and on how different wheat sector actors will contribute to the future control of plant diseases and the development of more integrated systems of plant disease management.  相似文献   
133.
A commercially available digital camera can be used in a low-cost automatic observation system for monitoring crop growth change in open-air fields. We developed a prototype Crop Phenology Recording System (CPRS) for monitoring rice growth, but the ready-made waterproof cases that we used produced shadows on the images. After modifying the waterproof cases, we repeated the fixed-point camera observations to clarify questions regarding digital camera-derived vegetation indices (VIs), namely, the visible atmospherically resistant index (VARI) based on daytime normal color images (RGB image) and the nighttime relative brightness index (NRBINIR) based on nighttime near infrared (NIR) images. We also took frequent measurements of agronomic data such as plant length, leaf area index (LAI), and aboveground dry matter weight to gain a detailed understanding of the temporal relationship between the VIs and the biophysical parameters of rice. In addition, we conducted another nighttime outdoor experiment to establish the link between NRBINIR and camera-to-object distance. The study produced the following findings. (1) The customized waterproof cases succeeded in preventing large shadows from being cast, especially on nighttime images, and it was confirmed that the brightness of the nighttime NIR images had spatial heterogeneity when a point light source (flashlight) was used, in contrast to the daytime RGB images. (2) The additional experiment using a forklift showed that both the ISO sensitivity and the calibrated digital number of the NIR (cDNNIR) had significant effects on the sensitivity of NRBINIR to the camera-to-object distance. (3) Detailed measurements of a reproductive stem were collected to investigate the connection between the morphological feature change caused by the panicle sagging process and the downtrend in NRBINIR during the reproductive stages. However, these agronomic data were not completely in accord with NRBINIR in terms of the temporal pattern. (4) The time-series data for the LAI, plant length, and aboveground dry matter weight could be well approximated by a sigmoid curve based on NRBINIR and VARI. The results confirmed that NRBINIR was more sensitive to all of the agronomic data for overall season, including the early reproductive stages. VARI had an especially high correlation with LAI, unless yellow panicles appeared in the field of view.  相似文献   
134.
Africa is widely held to be highly vulnerable to future climate change and Ethiopia is often cited as one of the most extreme examples. With this in mind we seek to identify entry points to integrate short- to medium-term climate risk reduction within development activities in Africa, drawing from experiences in Ethiopia. To achieve this we employ a range of data and methods. We examine the changing nature of climate risks using analysis of recent climate variability, future climate scenarios and their secondary impacts. We assess the effects of climate variability on agricultural production and national GDP. Entry points and knowledge gaps in relation to mainstreaming climate risks in Ethiopia are identified using the Government's plan for poverty reduction. We end with a case study incorporating climate risks through drought insurance within the current social protection programme in Ethiopia, which provides support to 8.3 million people.Rainfall behaviour in Ethiopia shows no marked emergent changes and future climate projections show continued warming but very mixed patterns of rainfall change. Economic analysis highlights sensitivities within the economy to large-scale drought, however, while the effects are clear in major drought years in other years the relationship is weak. For social protection fairly small positive and negative effects on the number of recipients and frequency of cash payments during drought occur under the extreme range of climate model rainfall projections (2020s).Our analysis highlights several important challenges and opportunities for addressing climate risks. Challenges primarily relate to the large uncertainties in climate projections for parts of Africa, a weak evidence base of complex, often non-deterministic, climate-society interactions and institutional issues. Opportunities relate to the potential for low-regrets measures to reduce vulnerability to current climate variability which can be integrated with relatively modest effort within a shift in Africa from a disaster-focused view of climate to a long-term perspective that emphasises livelihood security and vulnerability reduction.  相似文献   
135.
In West Africa, agriculture, mainly rainfed, is a major economic sector and the one most vulnerable to climate change. A meta-database of future crop yields, built up from 16 recent studies, is used to provide an overall assessment of the potential impact of climate change on yields, and to analyze sources of uncertainty.Despite a large dispersion of yield changes ranging from −50% to +90%, the median is a yield loss near −11%. This negative impact is assessed by both empirical and process-based crop models whereas the Ricardian approach gives very contrasted results, even within a single study. The predicted impact is larger in northern West Africa (Sudano-Sahelian countries, −18% median response) than in southern West Africa (Guinean countries, −13%) which is likely due to drier and warmer projections in the northern part of West Africa. Moreover, negative impacts on crop productivity increase in severity as warming intensifies, with a median yield loss near −15% with most intense warming, highlighting the importance of global warming mitigation.The consistently negative impact of climate change results mainly from the temperature whose increase projected by climate models is much larger relative to precipitation change. However, rainfall changes, still uncertain in climate projections, have the potential to exacerbate or mitigate this impact depending on whether rainfall decreases or increases. Finally, results highlight the pivotal role that the carbon fertilization effect may have on the sign and amplitude of change in crop yields. This effect is particularly strong for a high carbon dioxide concentration scenario and for C3 crops (e.g. soybean, cassava). As staple crops are mainly C4 (e.g. maize, millet, sorghum) in WA, this positive effect is less significant for the region.  相似文献   
136.
Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and not considering future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. This is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. On a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.  相似文献   
137.
基于冠层温度的冬小麦水分胁迫指数的实验研究   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8       下载免费PDF全文
在田间实验基础上对冬小麦田逐日14时基于冠层温度的作物水分胁迫指数,(CWSI)进行了计算和分析。同一时刻干旱处理CWSI高于湿润处理;麦田灌溉后CWSI4~6天降到极小值,表明了灌水后作物从水分胁迫状态恢复所需的时间;从本次灌溉后CWSI达到极小值至再次灌溉期间,CWSI呈持续增加趋势。这些表明CWSI较好地反映了因土壤供水不足导致的作物水分胁迫。CWSI与叶水势之间呈明显的负相关关系。CWSI等于0.4,相当于实际蒸散与可能蒸散的比率为60%,是指示冬小麦发生严重水分胁迫的关键性指标。  相似文献   
138.
解冻速率对作物霜冻害的影响   总被引:5,自引:3,他引:5       下载免费PDF全文
用人工霜箱研究霜冻危害.霜箱温度控制在-1—1℃,分别模拟解冻速率为0.3℃/10min和1.6℃/10min时的辐射霜夜缓慢降温过程.结果表明霜冻危害程度受作物种类、冻结温度、结冰进程和解冻速率的影响。在某些条件下,缓慢解冻可能使受冻组织恢复,但在另一些条件下则不能.对于不同耐霜性的作物,防霜的着眼点应该是不相同的。  相似文献   
139.
Both of crop growth simulation models and remote sensing method have a high potential in crop growth monitoring and yield prediction. However, crop models have limitations in regional application and remote sensing in describing the growth process. Therefore, many researchers try to combine those two approaches for estimating the regional crop yields. In this paper, the WOFOST model was adjusted and regionalized for winter wheat in North China and coupled through the LAI to the SAIL–PROSPECT model in order to simulate soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI). Using the optimization software (FSEOPT), the crop model was then re-initialized by minimizing the differences between simulated and synthesized SAVI from remote sensing data to monitor winter wheat growth at the potential production level. Initial conditions, which strongly impact phenological development and growth, and which are hardly known at the regional scale (such as emergence date or biomass at turn-green stage), were chosen to be re-initialized. It was shown that re-initializing emergence date by using remote sensing data brought simulated anthesis and maturity date closer to measured values than without remote sensing data. Also the re-initialization of regional biomass weight at turn-green stage led that the spatial distribution of simulated weight of storage organ was more consistent to official yields. This approach has some potential to aid in scaling local simulation of crop phenological development and growth to the regional scale but requires further validation.  相似文献   
140.
Distributed crop simulation models are typically confronted with considerable uncertainty in weather variables. In this paper the use of MeteoSat-derived meteorological products to replace weather variables interpolated from weather stations (temperature, reference evapotranspiration and radiation) is explored. Simulations for winter-wheat were carried for Spain, Poland and Belgium using both interpolated and MeteoSat-derived weather variables. The results were spatially aggregated to national and regional level and were evaluated by comparing the simulation results of both approaches and by assessing the relationships with crop yield statistics over the periods 1995–2003 from EUROSTAT. The results indicate that potential crop yield can be simulated well using MeteoSat-derived meteorological variables, but that water-stress hardly occurs in the water-limited simulations. This is caused by a difference in reference evapotranspiration which was 20–30% smaller in case of MeteoSat. As a result, the simulations using MeteoSat-derived meteorological variables performed considerably poorer in a regression analyses with crop yield statistics on national and regional level. Our results indicate that a recalibration of the model parameters is necessary before the MeteoSat-derived meteorological variables can be used operationally in the system.  相似文献   
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