不同对流参数化方案在登陆浙闽台风降水预报中的比较试验   总被引：10，自引：7，他引：3  

薛根元  张建海  陈红梅  诸晓明 《高原气象》2007,26(4):765-773

利用MM5模式,在MRF和Blackadar两种边界层参数化方案下,分别选用KF2、Grell和BM三种对流参数化方案对登陆浙闽两省的6个台风暴雨过程进行数值模拟,模拟结果的对比分析及其与观测资料的比较表明:KF2方案和Grell方案在降水量较小时误差较小,BM方案在降水量较大时误差较小;对大雨以上量级的降水预报,KF2方案、Grell方案和Blackadar方案组合效果较好,而BM方案则适宜与MRF方案组合;KF2方案不适合时效较长的降水预报。在台风"卡努"的个例试验中,位涡分布特征在积分后期对不同参数化方案十分敏感,这种差异进而影响了降水预报的准确性,同时暴雨中心潜热加热的时间演变总体特征表现为暴雨中心凝结潜热加热随时间积分有明显变化。因此,在预报和模拟中应根据预报和研究对象的特点来选择对流参数化方案。  相似文献   

云微物理参数化对华北降雪影响的数值模拟   总被引：10，自引：3，他引：7  

林文实  李江南  樊琦  吴池胜  古志明  孟金平  布和朝鲁 《高原气象》2007,26(1):107-115

对发生在华北地区的一次降雪过程进行了中尺度数值模拟。结果表明,高纬强冷空气南下和低纬倒槽的水汽输送是造成这次长时间降雪过程的主要原因。采用混合方案的中尺度数值模拟表明,这次降雪天气不是对流云造成的,而是稳定性的非对流云降雪。敏感性试验也表明,采用其他积云参数化方案对模拟的降雪量基本没有影响。控制试验模拟的24h降雪量与实际观测比较吻合。模拟结果表明,当采用Dudhia简单冰相方案时,会有过多的云冰、过冷却水及雪;当采用Reisner 1混合相方案时,会有过多的云冰和雪;修改的各个Reisner 2方案对此次降雪的预报改进不大,但各个Reisner 2方案的敏感性试验中云冰混合比、过冷却水混合比和雪混合比稍微有差异。  相似文献   

冬季大气斜压性对黑潮延伸体年代际异常响应的维持机制研究          下载免费PDF全文

张舰齐  李崇银  余沛龙  陈雄 《地球物理学报》2021,64(1):67-86

黑潮延伸体(Kuroshio Extension,KE)海域附近具有强烈的大气斜压性可显著影响北太平洋上空风暴轴异常,因而有必要研究KE海区附近斜压性的特征和维持机制.本文设计数值试验并结合高分辨率ERA-Interim资料研究了大气斜压性对KE 年代际海温变率模态(KEDV-induced SSTA,Kuroshio...  相似文献   

GRAPES-Meso模式动力框架与物理过程对预报误差影响研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张涵斌  陈静  龙柯吉 《成都信息工程学院学报》2012,27(2):202-210

为了研究GRAPES-Meso区域中尺度模式误差特点,评估模式动力框架和物理过程对预报误差的影响重要性,为GRAPES区域集合预报系统方案设计提供参考,基于GRAPES中尺度模式设计了4组对比试验,每组试验对2008年3个不同类型天气过程进行了数值模拟,获得如下结论:(1)GRAPES-Meso模式存在较为显著的系统性误差,系统性误差水平和垂直分布特征主要由GRAPES模式动力框架产生,物理过程对系统性误差影响相对较小;(2)在模式层底和模式层顶,GRAPES模式层与等压面层转换方案中,预报存在较为明显的垂直插值误差;(3)边界层方案对GRAPES模式低层动力场预报误差有重要影响,可以显著减少模式低层动力场预报误差。结果表明减少动力框架预报误差是改进GRAPES-Meso模式的重点,在GRAPES-Meso集合预报系统的设计中,需要重点考虑动力框架引起的模式不确定性。  相似文献   

3-D seismic tomography for velocity and interface structure of the crust and upper mantle (theoretical part)     

郑需要  张先康 《地震学报(英文版)》1998,11(5):547-555

Ｉｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎ３－Ｄｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｔｏｍｏｇｒａｐｈｙｈａｓｂｅｅｎａｐｐｌｉｅｄｔｏｖａｒｉｏｕｓｇｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃａｌｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｓ．ＡｋｉａｎｄＬｅｅ（１９７６）ａｎｄＨａｗｌｅｙｅｔａｌ．（１９８１）ｉｎｖｅｒｔｅｄ３－Ｄｍｏｄｅ...  相似文献   

积云参数化方案研究的现状   总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2  

林文实  黄美元 《热带气象学报》1998,14(4):374-379

对现有的广泛使用的１１种积云参数化方案进行综述,侧重于它们的热力学特点和它们的优缺点,并对目前积云参数化的研究进行讨论。  相似文献   

The updated version of SPONSOR land surface scheme: PILPS-influenced improvements     

Andrey B. Shmakin 《Global and Planetary Change》1998,19(1-4)

The parameterization scheme SPONSOR (Semi-distributed ParameterizatiON Scheme of the ORography-induced hydrology) participating in PILPS (Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes) experiments since 1993 is described in more detail than before, taking into account a range of recent modifications. Improvement of the scheme in several aspects (e.g., soil water movement) resulted in significantly improved results for the Cabauw site (used for PILPS (2a) experiments). Then, parameterization of cold seasons/regions processes (water phase transformations within soil and snow cover) was developed for PILPS (2d) experiments carried out with Valdai data. Testing of the scheme against the data of Kolyma water balance station shows that it is able to reproduce the main features of heat and water exchange at the land surface in the permafrost zone quite satisfactorily. It was found that the scheme results are rather sensitive to the soil heat conductivity, especially in the cold seasons. The original method for the calculation of this parameter was developed using a square root function. The surface temperature and dates of crossing the 0°C temperature threshold for Kolyma station were reproduced with satisfactory accuracy. The temporal variation of the deep soil layers' temperatures was modelled satisfactorily too, but the seasonal amplitude of deep soil temperatures was overestimated by the scheme. This disadvantage can possibly be improved by inclusion of vertical inhomogeneity of soil thermal and hydraulic properties in the model.  相似文献   

Description and validation of the atmosphere–land–surface interaction scheme (ALSIS) with HAPEX and Cabauw data     

Parviz Irannejad  Yaping Shao 《Global and Planetary Change》1998,19(1-4)

A new land surface parameterization scheme (ALSIS), with emphasis on soil moisture prediction, is described and validated with observations from HAPEX-MOBILHY and Cabauw. An important feature of the scheme is the inclusion of vertical heterogeneity of soil hydraulic parameters is modelling unsaturated flow. The simulated soil moisture for HAPEX site using a vertically homogeneous soil has a positive bias in the upper soil layers and a negative bias in the deep soil layers. Taking into account the soil vertical heterogeneity greatly eliminates this discrepancy and results in an excellent agreement between annual cycles of modelled and observed soil moisture profiles. The mean annual soil moisture in the top 1.6 m of soil increased from 394 mm for homogeneous case to 433 mm for the heterogeneous case, consistent with 435 mm observed. The improvement in soil moisture simulation resulted in an improved skill in predicting the mean and the diurnal cycles of surface fluxes for the intensive observational period (28 May–3 July). The simulated monthly averages of surface temperature and fluxes follow observations over the year, except for January when the model overestimates the latent heat flux due to its failure in simulating high rates of dew fall. The deviation of modelled monthly mean surface fluxes from observations are well within the estimated observational errors. The simulated mean daily surface temperature, and surface fluxes are generally consistent with observations, except for some times in the winter period. The modelled diurnal cycles of temperature and fluxes are in agreement with those observed. However, the model overestimates the night-time latent heat flux, especially during January.  相似文献   

基于随机物理过程扰动的BMJ积云参数化方案对降水集合预报的影响          下载免费PDF全文

曾燕飞  闵锦忠  王世璋 《大气科学学报》2022,45(3):428-443

基于ARPS模式和随机物理过程参数化扰动（stochastically perturbed parameterization）方法,通过10个2018年6—7月间的降水个例,讨论了针对BMJ积云降水参数化方案下不同参数化扰动方式对降水预报的影响。扰动方式包括扰动BMJ方案的温湿倾向和扰动BMJ方案的温湿参考廓线。试验的结果表明BMJ方案在华东区域的降水预报中存在湿偏差,即预报的降水事件多于相应的观测事件。这一偏差在系统性增加参考廓线湿度后仍然存在。BMJ方案对不同扰动方式的响应存在较大差异。扰动BMJ方案的温湿倾向对降水预报的影响较小,且集合离散度低。扰动BMJ方案的温湿参考廓线对降水预报影响显著,能够大幅增加集合离散度,其中对称的BMJ参考廓线扰动对预报技巧评分改进有限,原因是小雨的湿偏差有所增加,而非对称的BMJ参考廓线扰动（扰动均值大于1.0）能够有效提高预报技巧评分并降低湿偏差。此外,非对称扰动大幅改善了BMJ降水预报初期（0～3 h）的空间分布形态,并且改进了夜间降水预报的强度。非对称扰动评分较高的原因是减少了原BMJ方案在降水预报初期的的大范围虚假预报,避免了大气湿度的大范围下降,保障了预报后期的强降水预报能力。而BMJ方案温湿倾向量级较小则是造成倾向扰动方法效果不明显的重要原因。  相似文献   

辐射参数化方案对气候模拟和回报的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

李清泉  王兰宁  徐影  魏敏 《应用气象学报》2005,16(Z1):12-21

研究两种不同辐射参数化方案(Morcrette 方案和Ritter方案)对一个大气环流模式及其与一个海洋环流模式的耦合模式的模拟和回报效果的影响. 大气模式的模拟结果表明,采用Morcrette方案模拟的降水较采用Ritter方案有明显改进.采用Morcrette辐射方案的大气模式对夏季500 hPa高度场的模拟比采用Ritter方案的大气模式有明显改进,但对冬季500 hPa高度场的模拟没有改进.大气-海洋耦合模式的20年夏季回报结果表明采用Morcrette方案回报的夏季降水在华北和江淮地区明显比采用Ritter辐射方案好;对于夏季温度,带有Morcrette方案的耦合模式的回报在江淮地区没有带有Ritter方案的耦合模式好,但在黄河以北和新疆等地区,前者明显好于后者.  相似文献