高时空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨璐  陈敏  陈明轩  高峰  秦睿  宋林烨  程丛兰 《气象学报》2019,77(2):243-255

以业务应用为目标,开展高时、空分辨率三维风场在强对流天气临近预报中的融合应用研究。运用北京快速更新多尺度分析和预报系统集成子系统（RMAPS-IN,Rapid-refresh Multi-scale Analysis and Prediction System-Integration）,对雷达四维变分分析系统（VDRAS）30 min临近预报的高时、空分辨率三维风场作为数据源与自动气象站风场观测进行快速融合处理。结果表明,以VDRAS临近预报风场取代数值模式预报场作为融合初猜场后形成的分析结果对于风场有明显的改善:（1）长时间序列客观检验结果表明,地面10 m高风场U/V分量绝对误差分别为0.05和0.06 m/s。实时融合对未来预报的影响随着预报时效的延长,U/V分量的绝对误差不断增大。（2）对于11个强对流个例,地面10 m高风场风速均方根误差降低0.3 m/s,风向均方根误差降低13°;边界层三维风场,风速均方根误差降低0.8 m/s,风向均方根误差降低10°。平原站点融合以后风速、风向预报效果有较大改善,山区站点融合以后改善相对较小。（3）通过对2017年7月20日暴雨和7月7日雷暴大风个例的详细分析,发现融合基于雷达资料四维变分同化获得的高分辨率临近预报风场对各对流系统中的中尺度结构特征给出了更加细致准确的描述。   相似文献   

夏季亚洲阻塞高压识别及其对中国东北气候异常的可能影响:不同再分析资料对比     

刘刚  徐士琦  廉毅 《气象学报》2019,77(2):303-314

基于阻塞高压（阻高）客观识别方法,利用1979-2016年夏季（6-8月）NCEP-Ⅰ、NCEP-Ⅱ逐日再分析资料和ERA-interim逐6 h再分析资料对识别结果进行对比分析;并以D类（130°-160°E）阻高为例,讨论其对6月中国东北地区气候的可能影响。结果表明:NCEP-Ⅰ和NCEP-Ⅱ再分析资料对阻高活动天数、发生频次及年代际变化的识别结果差异较小,而ERA-interim与前两种资料的结果差别较大。3种再分析资料下,夏季各类阻高活动天数均与500 hPa高度场存在相应的显著相关区,且形态相近。但前两种资料对于各类阻高的表征结果较为一致,而ERA-interim再分析资料对各类阻高面积和范围的表征偏小。6月D类阻高活动日数与东北地区气温和降水关系密切,D类阻高活跃年,大气环流以经向型为主,东北地区低层低温、暖平流,高层高温、冷平流的结构指示大气层结不稳定,且东北上空为异常低压环流控制,上升气流较强,有利于6月东北地区出现低温多雨天气。鄂霍次克海地区是6月罗斯贝波的重要来源地之一,而6月D类阻高的形成可能与海-陆温差有关。   相似文献   

Seismic hazard computations for regions with low earthquake activity — A case study for the Belgium,The Netherlands and NW Germany area     

Theo de Crook  Vladimír Schenk  M. S. Barbano  F. Colombo  J. J. Egozcue  M. García-Fernández  P. Kottnauer  G. Leydecker  F. Mantlík  Z. Schenková  G. Zonno 《Natural Hazards》1989,2(3-4):229-236

The algorithms to evaluate seismic hazard, used and/or developed by five teams participating in the TERESA project, applied to the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands and NW Germany are compared. The main differences in the results can be explained by the majority criterion of Egozcue et al. (1989), the differences in the upper bound and zonification and, in some cases, by a higher attenuation.  相似文献   

Fractal analysis of long-range paleoclimatic data: Oxygen isotope record of pacific core V28-239   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Richard H. Fluegeman Jr.  R. Scott Snow 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,131(1-2):307-313

R/S analysis of the oxygen isotope curve of Pacific core V28-239 yields a fractal dimension of 1.22. This value is considered to characterize global climatic change over the last 2 million years as expressed by changing O¹⁸ ratios and confirms that climatic variations are characterized by long-term persistence. The fractal dimension of 1.22 compares favorably with the approximate fractal dimension of 1.26 for annual precipitation records for nine major cities in the United States. Although the precipitation and oxygen isotope data are measured in different physical units and recorded at different time scales, fractal analysis allows for a mathematical comparison of the two phenomena. Additionally, since the fractal dimensions of the oxygen isotope and precipitation records are similar, it is implied that such fractal dimensions are characteristic of climate change over the spectral range of 10 to 10⁶ years. Given this temperature curves based on fractal parameters of long-term O¹⁸ data could be constructed which would allow examination of characteristics of temperature variation over tens and hundreds of years. Such studies may allow the establishment of limits on natural temperature variation and document the persistence of temperature trends through time. If these trends and limits can be resolved, long-range climatic prediction is feasible.  相似文献   

对峡东莲沱组与湖南五强溪组对比问题的认识^＊     

刘卫新  张宝成 《湖南地质》1989,8(1):66-70

峡东莲沱组与湖南板溪群五强溪组或漠滨组之间的关系素有争议,湖南省地矿局区调队将峡东莲沱组与湖南五强溪组对比是值得商榷的问题。本文提出峡东莲沱组沉积时代应晚于长安亚冰期,应与富禄间冰期早期地层即石门县杨家坪渫水河组,湘北、湘西莲沱组及湘中江口组含铁砂岩段相当的认识。  相似文献   

BPM时号传播时延的连续观测与研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

宁百齐  李钧 《地球物理学报》1988,31(4):375-382

利用新研制的短波传播时延实时数字显示系统,在武汉电离层观象台对BPM时号的传播时延进行了长时间连续观测。发现这种时延曲线的主要特征是:它是分段光滑的,光滑段工的相对时间比对精度可优于0.1ms;各光滑段之间,时延值发生突跳。结合多普勒图和频高图的同时观测记录,解释了时延突跳的原因,着重说明了突跳好几毫秒的所谓异常时号的传播机制。此外,还讨论了提高短波授时精度的某些技术措施。  相似文献   

Prediction by regression and intrarange data scatter in surface-process studies     

T. J. Toy  W. R. Osterkamp  K. G. Renard 《Environmental Geology》1993,22(2):121-128

Modeling is a major component of contemporary earth science, and regression analysis occupies a central position in the parameterization, calibration, and validation of geomorphic and hydrologic models. Although this methodology can be used in many ways, we are primarily concerned with the prediction of values for one variable from another variable. Examination of the literature reveals considerable inconsistency in the presentation of the results of regression analysis and the occurrence of patterns in the scatter of data points about the regression line. Both circumstances confound utilization and evaluation of the models. Statisticians are well aware of various problems associated with the use of regression analysis and offer improved practices; often, however, their guidelines are not followed. After a review of the aforementioned circumstances and until standard criteria for model evaluation become established, we recommend, as a minimum, inclusion of scatter diagrams, the standard error of the estimate, and sample size in reporting the results of regression analyses for most surface-process studies.  相似文献   

锰矿石中硅酸锰的分离和测定方法对比     

耿学道  李维翰 《岩矿测试》1994,13(1):49-51

文章对几种分离测量硅酸锰的方法进行了对比。指出硅酸锰测定失真的缘由。选择了浸取分离伴生铁矿物的浸取剂及浸取分离条件。  相似文献   

矿山地理信息系统中的空间和时间四维数据模型   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8  

郭达志  杨维平 《测绘学报》1993,22(1):33-40

现有的许多地理信息系统（GISs）一般都没有考虑时间这一维数据。本文依据矿山的特点和需求，提出了能满足空间和时间要求的GIS的概念。针对传统数据模型所存在的缺点，以及根据处理历史数据所具有的特点，提出了一种用于矿业开发的空间和时间综合四维数据模型。这种模型通过采用四维空间线性编码技术，可大大减少数据存贮所需的辅助操作。为了适应综合四维数据处理的需要，笔者研究出了一种新的拓扑结构——四维空间和时间因素的拓扑关系。  相似文献   

微气象自动观测网     

张永丰  曹东生 《高原气象》1990,9(2):177-182

本文介绍利用计算机和通讯技术,建立局地网络的微气象观测系统,实现气象数据的自动采集、无线传输和集中实时处理。整个系统由一个中心站和五个(或更多)观测子站组成,是一个点到点的通讯网络。该系统为研究不同下垫面地气相互作用的观测实验提供了手段和方便。整个系统分两部份介绍,本文作一总体概述,第二部份说明数据采集和无线传输的具体实施。  相似文献