Interevent Time Distribution in Seismicity: A Theoretical Approach     

G. Molchan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(6-7):1135-1150

This paper presents an analysis of the distribution of the time τ between two consecutive events in a stationary point process. The study is motivated by the discovery of unified scaling laws for τ for the case of seismic events. We demonstrate that these laws cannot exist simultaneously in a seismogenic area. Under very natural assumptions we show that if, after rescaling to ensure Eτ =1, the interevent time has a universal distribution F, then F must be exponential. In other words, Corral’s unified scaling law cannot exist in the whole range of time. In the framework of a general cluster model we discuss the parameterization of an empirical unified law and the physical meaning of the parameters involved. An erratum to this article is available at .  相似文献   

A Possible Detection of the 26 December 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake with Solution Products of the International GNSS Service   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. Kouba 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2005,49(4):463-483

The main goal of this work is to critically review the IGS solution products and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) in order to demonstrate their potential to contribute to studies of large earthquakes such as the one that devastated Southeast Asia on December 26th, 2004. In view of a possible detection of the Mw 9.0 Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake of December 26, 2004, position solutions, ranging from intervals of years to one second, of four International GNSS Service (IGS) stations within 3000 km of the epicenter were examined. The IGS combined, cumulative solution product (IGS04P51), consisting of epoch and station velocity solutions and based on data spans of several years prior to the earthquake, was used as a reference. Four IGS combined weekly position solutions (igs04P1301-4), two weeks before and after the earthquake, were utilized for the weekly solution resolution. PPP static and kinematic solutions with IGS Final combined orbits and clocks were used for the mean daily and instantaneous 5-min and 1-sec epoch solutions, respectively. The most significant changes, detected by both weekly and daily solutions occurred in longitude. The nearest IGS station ntus, about 1000 km east of the epicenter, moved westward about 15 mm, while the more distant Indian station iisc (∼ 2300 km NW from the epicenter), shifted about 15 mm eastward. In spite of position errors caused by interpolation of the 5-min IGS clocks, the 1-sec solutions, based on separate data sets, available only for two stations (iisc, dgar), still showed seismic surface waves, in particular at the Indian station iisc. Precise daily IGS combined polar motion and length-of-day products, after correcting for the atmospheric effects, also likely detected, statistically significant, anomalistic excitations on December 26, 2004 that could be caused by this great earthquake.  相似文献   

Implicit integration under mixed controls of a breakage model for unsaturated crushable soils          下载免费PDF全文

Yida Zhang  Giuseppe Buscarnera 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(6):887-918

This paper discusses a series of stress point algorithms for a breakage model for unsaturated granular soils. Such model is characterized by highly nonlinear coupling terms introduced by breakage‐dependent hydro‐mechanical energy potentials. To integrate accurately and efficiently its constitutive equations, specific algorithms have been formulated using a backward Euler scheme. In particular, because implementation and verification of unsaturated soil models often require the use of mixed controls, the incorporation of various hydro‐mechanical conditions has been tackled. First, it is shown that the degree of saturation can be replaced with suction in the constitutive equations through a partial Legendre transformation of the energy potentials, thus changing the thermomechanical state variables and enabling a straightforward implementation of a different control mode. Then, to accommodate more complex control scenarios without redefining the energy potentials, a hybrid strategy has been used, combining the return mapping scheme with linearized constraints. It is shown that this linearization strategy guarantees similar levels of accuracy compared with a conventional strain–suction‐controlled implicit integration. In addition, it is shown that the use of linearized constraints offers the possibility to use the same framework to integrate a variety of control conditions (e.g., net stress and/or water‐content control). The convergence profiles indicate that both schemes preserve the advantages of implicit integration, that is, asymptotic quadratic convergence and unconditional stability. Finally, the performance of the two implicit schemes has been compared with that of an explicit algorithm with automatic sub‐stepping and error control, showing that for the selected breakage model, implicit integration leads to a significant reduction of the computational cost. Such features support the use of the proposed hybrid scheme also in other modeling contexts, especially when strongly nonlinear models have to be implemented and/or validated by using non‐standard hydro‐mechanical control conditions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Development of a soil moisture‐based distributed hydrologic model for determining hydrologically based critical source areas          下载免费PDF全文

Sisi Li  Margaret Gitau  David Bosch  Bernard A. Engel  Liang Zhang  Yun Du 《水文研究》2017,31(20):3543-3557

A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km² Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices.  相似文献   

A new magnitude category disaggregation approach for temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities          下载免费PDF全文

Muhammad Rehan Anis  Michael Rode 《水文研究》2015,29(6):1119-1128

Simulation of quick runoff components such as surface runoff and associated soil erosion requires temporal high‐resolution rainfall intensities. However, these data are often not available because such measurements are costly and time consuming. Current rainfall disaggregation methods have shortcomings, especially in generating the distribution of storm events. The objectives of this study were to improve point rainfall disaggregation using a new magnitude category rainfall disaggregation approach. The procedure is introduced using a coupled disaggregation approach (Hyetos and cascade) for multisite rainfall disaggregation. The new procedure was tested with ten long‐term precipitation data sets of central Germany using summer and winter precipitation to determine seasonal variability. Results showed that dividing the rainfall amount into four daily rainfall magnitude categories (1–10, 11–25, 26–50, >50 mm) improves the simulation of high rainfall intensity (convective rainfall). The Hyetos model category approach (Hyetos_Cat) with seasonal variation performs representative to observed hourly rainfall compared with without categories on each month. The mean absolute percentage accuracy of standard deviation for hourly rainfall is 89.7% in winter and 95.6% in summer. The proposed magnitude category method applied with the coupled Hyetos_Cat–cascade approach reproduces successfully the statistical behaviour of local 10‐min rainfall intensities in terms of intermittency as well as variability. The root mean square error performance statistics for disaggregated 10‐min rainfall depth ranges from 0.20 to 2.38 mm for summer and from 0.12 to 2.82 mm for the winter season in all categories. The coupled stochastic approach preserves the statistical self‐similarity and intermittency at each magnitude category with a relatively low computational burden. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Why asymptotic limit of the acid dissolution capacity can lead to a sharp dissolution front in chemical dissolution of porous rocks?          下载免费PDF全文

Chongbin Zhao  B.E. Hobbs  A. Ord 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(15):1590-1602

The use of the asymptotic limit can greatly simplify the theoretical analysis of chemical dissolution front instabilities in fluid‐saturated rocks and therefore make it possible to obtain mathematical solutions, which often play a crucial role in understanding the propagation behavior of chemical dissolution fronts in chemical dissolution systems. However, there has been a debate in recent years that the asymptotic limit of the acid dissolution capacity (i.e., the acid dissolution capacity number approaching zero) alone cannot lead to a sharp dissolution front of the Stefan type in the acidization dissolution system, in which the dissolvable minerals of carbonate rocks are chemically dissolved by the injected acid flow. The acid dissolution capacity number is commonly defined as the ratio of the volume of the carbonate rock dissolved by an acid to that of the acid. In this paper, we use four different proof methods, including (i) direct use of the fundamental concepts; (ii) use of the mathematical governing equations of an acidization dissolution system; (iii) use of the different time scaling approach; and (iv) use of a moving coordinate system approach, to demonstrate that the asymptotic limit of the acid dissolution capacity can indeed lead to sharp dissolution fronts of the Stefan type in acidization dissolution systems on a much larger time scale (than the dissolution time scale). Our new finding is that on the reaction time scale, the condition of the conventional time derivative of porosity approaching zero alone can ensure that the acidization dissolution front has a sharp shape of the Stefan type. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya          下载免费PDF全文

Vincent Omondi Odongo  Christiaan van der Tol  Pieter R. van Oel  Frank M. Meins  Robert Becht  Japheth Onyando  Zhongbo Su 《水文研究》2015,29(15):3276-3293

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling landslides in unsaturated slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration using material point method          下载免费PDF全文

Samila Bandara  Alessio Ferrari  Lyesse Laloui 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(9):1358-1380

This paper presents a dynamic fully coupled formulation for saturated and unsaturated soils that undergo large deformations based on material point method. Governing equations are applied to porous material while considering it as a continuum in which the pores of the solid skeleton are filled with water and air. The accuracy of the developed method is tested with available experimental and numerical results. The developed method has been applied to investigate the failure and post‐failure behaviour of rapid landslides in unsaturated slopes subjected to rainfall infiltration using two different bedrock geometries that lie below the top soil. The models show different failure and post‐failure mechanisms depending on the bedrock geometry and highlight the negative effects of continuous rain infiltrations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Steady‐state analytical solutions of flow and deformation coupling due to a point sink within a finite fluid‐saturated poroelastic layer          下载免费PDF全文

P. Li  K. Wang  G. Fang  D. Lu 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(8):1093-1107

An exact steady‐state closed‐form solution is presented for coupled flow and deformation of an axisymmetric isotropic homogeneous fluid‐saturated poroelastic layer with a finite radius due to a point sink. The hydromechanical behavior of the poroelastic layer is governed by Biot's consolidation theory. Boundary conditions on the lateral surface are specifically chosen to match the appropriate finite Hankel transforms and simplify the transforms of the governing equations. Ordinary differential equations in the transformed domain are solved, and then the analytical solutions in the physical space for the pore pressure and the displacements are finally obtained by using finite Hankel inversions. The analytical solutions at some special locations such as the top and bottom surfaces, lateral surface, and the symmetrical axis are given and analyzed. And a case study for the consolidation of a water‐saturated soft clay layer due to pumping is conducted. The analytical solution is verified against the finite element solution. Meanwhile, an analysis of coupled hydromechanical behavior is carried out herein. The presented analytical solution is an exact solution to the practical poroelastic problem within an axisymmetric finite layer. It can provide us a better understanding of the poroelastic behavior of the finite layer due to fluid extraction. Besides, it can be applied to calibrate numerical schemes of axisymmetric poroelasticity within finite domains. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

利用3S技术及三维激光扫描仪进行耕地损毁勘测     

林学艺 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(2):88-90

利用RS技术发现耕地损毁,网络RTK测量耕地损毁范围及面积,GIS提取耕地被损毁前的分类面积和等别,以及利用网络RTK配合Maptek I-Site8810三维激光扫描仪重构损毁耕地三维模型。  相似文献