La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale     

Jean-Claude Andr  Jean-Yves Caneill  Michel Dqu  Philippe Rogel  Laurent Terray  Yves Tourre 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2002,334(16):1115

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.  相似文献   

A comparative study of the design spectra defined by Eurocode 8, UBC, IBC and Turkish Earthquake Code on R/C sample buildings     

Adem Doğangün  Ramazan Livaoğlu 《Journal of Seismology》2006,10(3):335-351

Earthquake codes have been revised and updated depending on the improvements in the representation of ground motions, soils and structures. These revisions have been more frequently seen in recent years. One of the key changes in earthquake codes has been performed on the design spectra. In this paper, the design spectra recommended by Turkish Earthquake Code and three other well known codes (Uniform Building Code, Eurocode 8, and International Building Code) are considered for comparison. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the differences caused by the use of different codes in the dynamic analysis and seismic verification of given types of buildings located at code defined different sites. The differences in expressions and some important points for elastic and inelastic spectra defined by the codes are briefly illustrated in tables and figures. Periods, base shears, lateral displacements and interstory drifts for the analyzed buildings located at code defined ground type are comparatively presented.  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地中南部三叠系延长组8油层组成岩作用及其对储层物性的控制   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

姜红霞  吴亚生  罗晓容  喻建  毛明陆  杨  陈瑞银 《沉积与特提斯地质》2007,27(1):54-61

鄂尔多斯盆地中南部延长组8油层组主要成岩作用包括压实作用、石英次生加大、自生绿泥石膜生长、次生高岭石化、连晶方解石交代、长石溶蚀。根据铸体薄片,碳氧同位素分析,确定了各种主要成岩产物的空间分布和成因,分析了成岩产物分布与现今总面孔率的关系,从而确定8油层组的物性主要受石英次生加大、连晶方解石、长石溶孔、剩余原生孔隙分布的控制。石英次生加大和连晶方解石发育的地方,储层物性差;具自生绿泥石膜的剩余原生孔隙和长石溶孔发育的地方,储层物性好。  相似文献   

The Alleret maar (Massif Central, France): A new lacustrine sequence of the early Middle Pleistocene in western Europe     

Jean-Franois Pastre  Agns Gauthier  Sbastien Nomade  Paul Orth  Ana Andrieu  Franck Goupille  Herv Guillou  Stphane Kunesch  Stphane Scaillet  Paul Randall Renne 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2007,339(16):987-997

The Alleret maar (Massif Central, France) provides a long lacustrine sequence (40.6 m) attributed to the early Middle Pleistocene. Sediment, pollen and diatoms analysis of its upper part (AL2 core, 14.6 m) indicates two temperate phases marked by high lake levels, forest development and vegetation expansion. They are separated by a cold period during which lake level drops, coarse sediment input increases and steppic and xerophilous plants develop. Pollen data suggests that this sequence belongs to the upper part of the Cromerian complex. These results are in agreement with the 557 ± 3 ka (±12 ka, including all errors) ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age obtained from an interbedded tephra layer emitted by the Mont-Dore/Sancy strato-volcano and establish that this sequence probably covers the MIS 15 substages.  相似文献   

Spectrophotometry of the planetary nebula KjPn 8     

R. Vázquez  R. L. Kingsburgh  & J. A. López 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,296(3):564-568

Flux-calibrated low-resolution spectra covering the optical wavelength range from 3400 to 7500 Å have been obtained over the central region and the surroundings of the extraordinary planetary nebula (PN) KjPn 8 (PNG 112.5-00.1). The spectrum from the core is of low excitation with T _e(N  II ) = 8000 K and n _e(S  II ) = 550 cm⁻³. KjPn 8 is found to be a Type I PN according to the original classification scheme of Peimbert & Torres-Peimbert, with enriched He/H and N/O ratios with respect to mean values for PN. Increased O/H, Ne/H and Ar/H ratios over those of average PN reflect the possible metal-rich environment from which the progenitor star formed, and also are similar to those found in the extreme Type I PN He 2-111. The N/H ratio is found to be only moderately high compared to the average PN and consequently, the large O abundance pulls the N/O ratio towards the lower limit of the criterion for Type I planetary nebulae (PNe) in this case. In addition, the spectra of some knots and faint regions in the KjPn 8 surroundings are presented, which show only a few spectral lines. Low electron densities ranging from 100 to 300 cm⁻³ have been derived in these outer regions.  相似文献   

IMP 8 magnetosheath field comparisons with models     

Z. Kaymaz 《Annales Geophysicae》1998,16(4):376-387

This study presents cross-sectional vector maps of the magnetic field derived from IMP 8 magnetometer in the magnetosheath at 30 R_e behind the Earth. In addition the vector patterns of the magnetosheath field for northward, southward, and east-west interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) directions are qualitatively compared with those obtained from the Spreiter-Stahara gas dynamic (GD) and Fedder-Lyon magnetohydrodynamic models (MHD). The main purpose is to display the cross-sectional differences in relation to the dayside merging with different IMF directions, allowing the reader to make direct visual comparisons of the vector patterns. It is seen that for east-west IMF directions, the data-based and MHD-based patterns differ noticeably in a similar way from the GD model, presumably reflecting the influence of dayside magnetic merging of the Earths magnetic field with the y-component of the interplanetary magnetic field. All three northward IMF cross sections show comparable field draping patterns as expected for a closed magnetosphere. For southward IMF case, on the other hand, differences between the three cross-sectional patterns are greater as seen in the field vector sizes and directions, especially closer to the magnetopause where more disturbed magneto-spheric conditions are known to be exist. The data comparisons with the MHD and GD models show that the differences result from the magnetic field-flow coupling and that the effects of dayside reconnection are present in IMP 8 magnetic field measurements.  相似文献   

The globular cluster system of the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy: the age of Terzan 8     

Montegriffo  Bellazzini  Ferraro  Martins  Sarajedini  & Fusi Pecci 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,294(2):315-326

We present deep V - and I -band CCD photometry of the globular cluster Terzan 8, recently found to be a member of the globular cluster system of the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy. We accurately estimate the metallicity of Terzan 8, and provide the first direct determination of the colour excess toward this cluster. Our robust age estimate confirms that this cluster is indeed coeval with typical Galactic globulars of comparable metal content, and thus it is probably significantly older than at least two other Sagittarius clusters, Terzan 7 and Arp 2. The implications of this result on the star formation history of the Sagittarius galaxy are briefly discussed.  相似文献   

Evidence from the Trent terrace archive, Lincolnshire, UK, for lowland glaciation of Britain during the Middle and Late Pleistocene   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Tom S. White  Andy J. Howard 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2010,121(2):141-153

The late Middle Pleistocene fluvial terrace sequence of the lower Trent system, Lincolnshire (eastern England), provides an excellent record of environmental change, including evidence for the last two interglacial episodes. It also provides important stratigraphical evidence for the timing and extent of three separate glaciations. Two of these, the Anglian and Devensian, are well-established correlatives of Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 12 and 2 respectively; the third is a hitherto un-named post-Anglian-pre-Devensian glaciation in eastern England that has been the subject of much previous speculation, but can now be attributed with some confidence to MIS 8. Crucially, the recognition of MIS 7 interglacial deposits within the Balderton-Southrey terrace of the proto-Trent indicates that the underlying Wragby Till, which is ascribed to this additional glaciation, was emplaced no later than MIS 8. The oldest terrace preserved within the lower Trent staircase, the Eagle Moor-Martin Terrace, is considered to be a complex glacial outwash terrace related to the Wragby Till glaciation. It is suggested that deposits representing MIS 11-9, which are conspicuously absent throughout the Trent system, were removed by this glaciation. This is a departure from previous interpretations, which have suggested MIS 10 or MIS 6 as the most likely stages in which an extensive post-Anglian-pre-Devensian lowland glaciation might have occurred in Britain. However, the widespread preservation of undisrupted post-MIS 8 fluvial sequences throughout the Trent valley and in neighbouring systems, within which MIS 7 interglacial deposits have now been recognized at a number of localities, indicates that ice sheets are unlikely to have advanced further into this catchment during MIS 6 than during the Devensian (MIS 2). Recognition of a British glaciation during MIS 8 corresponds with widespread evidence in Europe, which suggests that glacial deposits classified as ‘Saalian’ represent both MIS 8 and MIS 6; in many areas, distinguishing these remains controversial, as confident correlation with either stage is often only possible where glacial sediments interdigitate with well-constrained fluvial records.  相似文献   

添加剂对KAlSi_3O_8-CaSO_4-CaCO_3体系反应表观活化能的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

石林  曾小平  柴妮  杨国友 《岩石矿物学杂志》2010,29(1):90-94

首先测定了KAlSi3O8-CaSO4-CaCO3体系在不同焙烧条件下钾长石转化成可溶性氧化钾的转化率,进而通过模拟计算表明:KAlSi3O8-CaSO4-CaCO3体系的固相扩散动力学过程符合金斯特林格动力学方程,反应表观活化能Ea为128.92kJ/mol。并着重考察了4种添加剂Na2SO4、Na2SO3、NaCl和NaF对KAlSi3O8-CaSO4-CaCO3体系的影响,结果表明:向体系中分别加入占反应物总质量3%的Na2SO4、Na2SO3、NaCl和1%的NaF后,体系的反应表观活化能Ea从原来的128.92kJ/mol依次下降至87.15、98.71、117.38和126.14kJ/mol,这表明4种添加剂中Na2SO4的效果最好,它能较大程度上降低反应表观活化能,从而降低反应温度和提高固相反应速率。  相似文献   

四川盆地白马地区白马8井垂向地球化学特征     

肖其鹏  陈远荣  贾国相  姚锦其 《矿产与地质》2010,24(2):180-186

文章在详细介绍各项油气化探指标异常形成机制的基础上,通过对白马8井不同地层中化探指标的变化规律、含量特征以及相关元素对比值分析,结果发现白马8井各层位均无油气富集,但发现须家河组第二和第四岩性段是区域上良好的储层,在今后的油气勘查中应该予以重视。  相似文献