Environinformatics in ecological risk assessment of agroecosystems pollutant leaching     

Nazzareno Diodato  Michele Ceccarelli 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(4):292-300

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黄淮和江淮地区2001年9～10月异常干旱的水汽分析     

王秀文  李峰  阿布力米提&#;司马义 《气象学报》2004,62(6):860-867

文中利用NCEP/NCAR 2 0 0 1年 9～ 10月的全球日平均资料和中央气象台的逐日 0 8时 2 4h降水资料 ,着重分析了 2 0 0 1年秋季黄淮、江淮地区持续干旱时期的水汽收支及动力条件。结果表明 ,2 0 0 1年 9～ 10月该地区大气水汽含量比常年同期明显偏小 ,水汽以支出为主 ,并且南边界的水汽输出与多雨时期的情况截然不同 ;与之相反 ,有两支水汽通道将大量水汽输送到中国华西地区 ,为该地区提供了丰富的水汽。在此期间 ,江淮、黄淮地区大气层结稳定或成中性 ,对流弱 ,基本为下沉气流控制 ,使得该地区缺乏有利的动力条件 ,无法形成降水。通过分析发现 ,造成 2 0 0 1年秋季江淮、黄淮地区持续干旱时期水汽和动力条件异常的主要原因是亚洲中高纬地区盛行纬向环流 ,西风锋区位于 5 5°N附近 ,比常年同期偏北约 5个纬距 ;西北太平洋副热带高压持续偏西偏北 ,是近 2 6年来同期副热带高压脊线位置持续在 2 5°N以北时间最长的一年 ;同时 ,2 0 0 1年 9月份东亚 -西太平洋低纬度地区大气活动异于常年 ,吕宋岛附近维持一个强盛的对流中心 ,这在历史上是少有的。  相似文献   

A comprehensive and systematic approach to developing and documenting conceptual models of contaminant release and migration at the Hanford Site     

G. V. Last  V. J. Rohay  F. J. Schelling  A. L. Bunn  M. A. Delamare  R. L. Dirkes  R. D. Hildebr  J. G. Morse  B. A. Napier  R. G. Riley  L. Soler  P. D. Thorne 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(2):109-116

The U. S. Department of Energys Richland Operations Office has initiated efforts to adapt and implement the features, events, and processes (FEP) methodology used in scenario development for nuclear waste disposal programs to the environmental management and remediation problems facing the Hanford site. These efforts have shown that modification of the FEPs methodology to incorporate the use of process relationship diagrams (PRD) is effective in facilitating the development of conceptual models and selection of potentially relevant factors (i.e., FEPs) to be incorporated into a specific environmental assessment. In adopting this methodology for Hanford, a master PRD was created to provide a structure to identify these factors and to illustrate the relationships among them. The organizational framework of the master PRD was developed to match the organization of current Hanford site-wide environmental assessment activities and to facilitate screening of the FEPs relevant to the specific assessments needed for the site.  相似文献   

沈阳市土壤铅的空间分布及风险评价研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

任慧敏  王金达  张学林 《地球科学进展》2004,(Z1)

经测定,沈阳市土壤铅含量范围为22～2910.600mg/kg,平均值是270.297mg/kg。铅污染比较严重且空间变化大,局地污染非常严重。利用地统计方法研究了沈阳市土壤铅的空间结构和分布特征。结果显示,沈阳市土壤铅具有较好的空间结构性,利用半方差函数的结果进行克里格插值得到土壤铅含量的分布图。沈阳市有6个土壤铅污染中心,其中以铁西区和太原街的污染比较突出。工业排放、汽车尾气和污灌是沈阳市铅污染的三大污染源。风险评价结果表明,铁西区属于极高风险区,儿童铅中毒的潜在风险非常大。  相似文献   

Landslide risk evaluation and hazard zoning for rapid and long-travel landslides in urban development areas   总被引：8，自引：6，他引：2  

Kyoji?SassaEmail author  Gonghui?Wang  Hiroshi?Fukuoka  Fawu?Wang  Takahiro?Ochiai  Masanori?Sugiyama  Tatsuo?Sekiguchi 《Landslides》2004,1(3):221-235

Risk evaluation for earthquake-induced rapid and long-travel landslides in densely populated urban areas is currently the most important disaster mitigation task in landslide-threatened areas throughout the world. The research achievements of the IPL M-101 APERITIF project were applied to two urban areas in megacities of Japan. One site is in the upper slope of the Nikawa landslide site where previous movements were triggered by the 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu earthquake. During detailed investigation, the slope was found to be at risk from a rapid and long-travel landslide induced by sliding surface liquefaction by earthquakes similar in scale to the 1995 event. A new plan to prevent the occurrence of this phenomenon was proposed and the plan was implemented. Another area is the Tama residential area near Tokyo. A set of field and laboratory investigations including laser scanner, geological drilling and ring-shear tests showed that there was a risk of sliding surface liquefaction for both sites. A geotechnical computer simulation (Rapid/LS) using the quantitative data obtained in the study allowed urban landslide hazard zoning to be made at individual street level.  相似文献   

ON CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE PRODUCT OF THREE MEANS OF THREE NORMALEY DISTRIBUTED POPULATIONS     

E.A.YFANTIS Computer Science Department  University of Neva  Las Vegas  NV  U.S.A.G.T.FLATMAN U.S.Environmental Protection Agency  E.Harmon  Las Vegas  NV  U.S.A. 《地理学报(英文版)》1991,(3)

In many environmental applications,such as exposure assessment and risk modelling,the desiredestimate is a random variable computed as the product of three independently distributed randomvariables.These variables may not necessarily have the same mean and variance.The method for findingthe 100(1-α)% confidence interval for the mean of the product random variable has been proposed bysome practitioners as the product of the 100(1-α)% confidence interval of the three means.In this paperwe show that the distribution of the product of three independent normal random variables is not normal.We find the mean and variance of the product distribution.Further,we show that although the meanof the product is equal to the product of the means,the product of the three confidence intervals is nota good approximation of the confidence intervals for the mean of the product variable.The confidenceinterval of the mean of the product variable may be estimated by computer simulation.An algorithmfor estimating the confidence interval for the mean of the product random variable is given.The programimplementing this algorithm is given as an appendix.  相似文献   

Improved microbial risk assessment of groundwater     

S. Godfrey  M. Smith 《Hydrogeology Journal》2005,13(1):321-324

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Landslide risk management in Switzerland   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

Olivier Lateltin  Christoph Haemmig  Hugo Raetzo  Christophe Bonnard 《Landslides》2005,2(4):313-320

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Risk assessment for optimal freshwater inflow in response to sustainability indicators in semi-arid coastal bay     

Jae-Hyung Ji  Ni-Bin Chang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(2):111-124

Coastal zones are the primary interface for the exchange of natural and man-made materials between terrestrial and coastal ecosystems. While continuous industrial development and population growth in the coastal region promote unprecedented economic prosperity, water resource management in bay and estuary areas turns out to be a crucial challenge. Therefore, local, state, and federal water planning groups are attempting to manage the supply of freshwater inflow based on sustainability goals, especially for semi-arid coastal regions like South Texas. Surface and ground water management practices in this semi-arid coastal region are implemented to ensure an ever-lasting water supply on one hand and to maintain ecosystem integrity in the bay and estuary system on the other hand. The aim of this study is to apply a stochastic compromise programming model to identify a compromise solution under uncertainty in terms of two competing objectives: minimizing freshwater release from a coastal reservoir and maximizing fishery harvest in its associated bay—Corpus Christi Bay, South Texas. The global criterion method used in the solution procedure seeks to select a compromise solution that possesses the shortest distance from a positive ideal solution (PIS) and the farthest distance from a negative ideal solution (NIS). Solutions were found using three distance-based functions in conjunction with stochastic constraints reflecting the risk levels involved in decision-making. Results indicate that current flows in the mouth of the Nueces River are not sufficient to maintain the salinity level and to satisfy harvest requirements in the Corpus Christi Bay if water supply goal in the city has higher priority. Therefore, a sustainable management plan of exploring the structure of demand and supply is highly desirable in this fast growing urban region.  相似文献   

Snow-avalanche and debris-flow hazards in the fjords of north-western Iceland,mitigation and prevention     

Armelle Decaulne 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(1):81-98

In the fjords of north-western Iceland, snow-avalanche and debris-flow hazards threaten 65% of the inhabitants. In this area, both historical and geomorphological evidences clearly demonstrate the recurrent danger from the steep slopes. Hazard vulnerability has increased during the last century, in connection with the population development of the Westfjords. Two snow-avalanche disasters during 1995 (in which 34 people were killed in two villages) prompted efforts to both mitigate and prevent future snow-avalanche and debris-flow activity. Research (qualitative and quantitative) on process characteristics describes prone terrain, runout distance, process behaviour along the slope, morphometric properties of the deposits and triggering factors. Acceptable risk, hazard and risk zoning are clearly defined by official regulations. Evacuation plans are determined from statistical characterisation of the risk and dynamic numerical modelling. To enhance the risk reduction, permanent and temporary measures aim to control the processes and to protect the population.  相似文献