试论厄尔尼诺对广西气候异常影响的物理机制     

李耀先  梁隽玫  李秀存  张永强 《气象研究与应用》2001,22(1):32-34

通过对瓦克环流、哈德莱环流、副热带高压、台风等的分析 ,结合广西降水和气温异常状况 ,认为厄尔尼诺现象发生时 ,赤道东太平洋海温异常升高 ,使瓦克环流和哈得莱环流发生变化 ,引起副热带高压增强 ,台风生成数减少 ,从而产生广西前汛期偏涝 ,后汛期偏旱 ,全年气温偏暖的结果  相似文献   

PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION OF THE 1997-1999 EL NINOAND LA NINA BY USING AN INTERMEDIATE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL^*          下载免费PDF全文

LI Qingquan  ZHAO Zongci  DING Yihui 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2001,15(2):144-159

The numerical simulations,hindcasts and verifications of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) have been conducted by using a dynamical tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupled model named NCCo.The results showed that the model had performed reasonable simulations of the major El Nino episodes in the history,and the model forecast skill in 1990s had been significantly improved.NCCo model has been used to predict the tropical Pacific SSTA since January 1997.The comparisons between predictions and observations indicated that the occurrence,evolution and ending of the 1997-1998 El Nino episode have been predicted fairly well by using this model.Also,the La Nina episode that began in the autumn of 1998 and the developing tendency of the tropical Pacific SSTA during the year 1999 have been predictedsuccessfully.The forecast skills of NCCo model during the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Nina events are above 0.5 at 0-14 lead months.  相似文献   

厄尔尼诺与亚洲季风对港澳地区降雨影响   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

周文  简裕庚  陈创买  梁嘉静 《热带地理》2001,21(1):36-40

分析研究了香港1853～1997年（145年）、澳门1901～1997年（97年）的月和年降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是：（1）香港、澳门年降雨量存在准2～6年的周期振荡，澳门年降雨量有很强的长期趋势，香港年降雨量无明显趋势；（2）香港、澳门年内雨量的峰值出现在西南季风期（6月和8月），而谷值在东北季风期（12月）；（3）EI Nino事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为正，降雨偏多。在La Nila事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为负，降雨偏少。  相似文献   

El Ni?o影响热带大气季节内振荡的动力学研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李崇银  李桂龙 《大气科学》1996,20(2):159-168

根据El Ni?o期间热带大气状态的异常特征，确定了在简单大气动力模式中描写海温异常的参数化方法。然后利用斜压半地转两层模式从动力学上分析研究了El Ni?o对热带大气低频波的影响。理论分析同有关热带大气季节内振荡的资料分析结果完全一致，El Ni?o事件使热带大气季节内振荡减弱。  相似文献   

A STUDY ON THE VARIATIONS OF ANNUAL FREQUENCY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC DURING THE LAST HUNDRED YEARS     

张光智  张先恭  魏凤英 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1996,2(1):67-75

In this paper, a study on the variation of annual frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) and its relation with SST, Southern Oscillation index, sunspot relative number and number of days for specific circulation patterns was made by using 1884-1988 data of annual frequency for Northwest Pacific TC occurrence, which had been corrected to tendencies.Preliminary results indicated that in the variation of annual TC frequency there exist obvious p.6riods of 21, 31, 15 and 6 years and sustaining periods lasting 12 years in average.Well-defined processes of inflexion were observed in 1931, 1959 and 1977 over the past hundred years.The results also suggested insignificant statistic tendency of annual TC frequency increasing (decreasing) in winter/spring (summer/autumn )in the El Nino years.When the stratosphere was in the zonally westerly phase, the northern zonal circulation would abnormally develop and solar activity would enhance to favour the generation and development of TC.  相似文献   

VARIATIONS IN THE TELECONNECTION INTENSITY INDICES AND THEIR REMOTE RESPONSE TO THE EL NINO EVENTS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE^*          下载免费PDF全文

Zhu Qiangen  Shi Neng 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1992,6(4):433-445

In this study,the monthly and seasonal teleconnection intensity indices of the Pacific/North American(PNA),Western Atlantic(WA),Western Pacific(WP),Eastern Atlantic(EA) and Eurasian(EU) patterns for the period from 1951 through 1990 are calculated.On this basis,their climatic variations and the relationship between the five teleconnection intensity indices and the El Nino events are examined.It is noted that when El Nino is at its mature stage(winter),the weak WP pattern is mainly characteristic of the circulation and the strong PNA pattern is the next.In summer when El Nino occurs and develops,the strong EU,weak WP and weak WA patterns are the main characteristics without the PNA circulation anomalies.Finally,by the nonlinear mapping method a nonlinear mapping diagram is established for diagnosing El Nino using three summer teleeonuection intensity indices and May and August Southern Oscillation Indices(SOIs).Thus,the El Nino phenomenon occurring in 1991 is diagnosed.Besides,the winter atmospheric circulation of the 1991/1992 El Nino is found to be the weak WP pattern and the PNA pattern is also weak.  相似文献   

IAP GCM模式大气波谱结构及其在厄尔尼诺年的异常     

王盘兴  刘家铭  沈素红 《南京气象学院学报》1992,(1)

本文分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气环流模式(IAP GCM)模式大气波谱结构(沿纬圈的谐波波谱和时域上的频率谱)及其在厄尔尼诺年的异常。结果表明,超长波是低纬波动的主要空间形式,准40天振荡在一定地理区域内显著存在,并与观测结果有一定联系,它们在厄尔尼诺年均发生明显异常。本工作对鉴定GCM性能及开发GCM的研究领域可能是一种有益的尝试。  相似文献   

北半球500百帕极地环流与厄尔尼诺、南方涛动及我国气温场的遥相关     

施能  罗伯良 《南京气象学院学报》1992,(2)

本文用1951—1984年的资料对500百帕、65°N以北的高度场作自然正交展开,用模糊聚类对典型场归类。指出,极涡月平均场有三种形态,1月份平均场形态较特殊;大尺度距平场也有三种形态,4月份距平场形态较特殊。此外,研究了典型场的时间权重系数与厄尔尼诺、南方涛动的关系。指出,厄尔尼诺现象发生的当年4月、10月极地大尺度距平场有明显的异常特征。这种极地环流异常已明显影响到我国4月份、10月份的气温场。因而,可能是厄尔尼诺年我国气温4月偏低、10月偏高的一个重要原因。  相似文献   

1986/1987厄尔尼诺期间的西风强化和海气相互作用过程分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

于惠苓  蒲书箴 《大气科学》1992,16(4):427-435

本文利用欧洲中期数值天气预报中心(ECMWF)西北太平洋上空(25°—35°N,110°—180°)850 hPa客观分析的西风分量,计算了1986/1987厄尔尼诺期间的西风强度.结果表明1986年12月—1987年5月西风的累计强度比1986/1987厄尔尼诺前后诸年份同期的西风更强,这种强化与历次厄尔尼诺期间西北太平洋副热带高压的加强是一致的,都反映了哈德莱环流的强化.为了探讨大气环流发生这种变化的原因,作者利用中美海气观测期间的海洋资料,说明了热带两太平洋东部对低纬度大气异常的加热和西部边界流向中纬度海洋输送热量的减少是两个十分重要的原因.  相似文献   

NON-LINEAR CRITICAL LAYER IN EL NINO AND LA NINA YEARS AND FORMATION, MAINTENTENANCE AND OSCILLATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH     

陶丽  陆维松 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1999,5(2):113-122

Monthly mean zonal wind data from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting(ECMWF)for December 1982, April 1983, October 1984 and ApriI 1985 are used in numerical integration as thebasic flow in a non-linear critical-layer model. The subtropical high is extensive and limited in number if simulated with the basic now in December 1982 and April 1983. It consists of 2 to 3 cells that move westward at alloscillatory periods of 1～2 months. The subtropical high, simulated with the basic flow in October 1984 and April1 985. is weak and small in coverage, or distributed in strips that contain up to 4 cells. The high. merged or spillover a short time. is moving westward. The years 1982 ～1983 are a process of EI Niño while the years 1984-1985one of La Niña. lt is known from the chart of energy flux that it oscillates by a much larger amplitude and longerperiod in the EI Niño year than in the La Niña year. All the results above have indicated that the basic flow in the EI Niño year is enhancing the subtropical high lagging by about 4 months and that in the La Niña year is decay'ing it. It is consiStent with the well-known observational fact that the SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacitlc ispositively correlated with the extent and intensity of the subtropical high in west Pacific lagging by 1～2 seasons.The result is also important for further study of the formation, maintenance and oscillation of the subtropicalhigh.  相似文献