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991.
热带印度洋海温异常与ENSO关系的进一步研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
用1955年1月-2001年12月美国Scripps海洋研究所的海温再分析资料、美国NCEP再分析资料和美国气候预测中心(CPC)资料,讨论了热带太平洋ENSO与热带印度洋海温距平以及与印度洋偶极子(Dipole)的关系,研究结果发现:在垂直最大温度距平曲面(MTAL)上,热带印度洋海温距平分布存在着与热带太平洋ENSO密切相关的Dipole现象,其中最大的相关在太平洋ENSO 超前印度洋Dipole一个月.但是,热带印度洋Dipole的分布与Saij定义的位置略有不同,为东北西南向,它们分别在6°-10°S、65°-75°E(西印度洋)和2°-6°N、85°-95°E(东印度洋),它是赤道印度洋的一个主要海温距平系统.另外,在热带印度洋东北部与ENSO相关的海温距平是一个上下不一致的系统,该海温距平并没有伸展到海面,从海面到20-50 m的浅薄水层,则为与赤道西南印度洋相同符号的海温距平分布.因此在海面,海温距平不存在与ENSO有关的Dipole现象,赤道印度洋Dipole只存在于次表层以下,这是赤道印度洋Dipole与ENSO不同之处.这种赤道东北印度洋表层与赤道西南印度洋表层同符号的海温距平现象,有可能是海气热力过程如感热过程造成的.热带印度洋Dipole的周期要小于El Nio,一般为1-6 a. 相似文献
992.
Decadal and interannual variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
This study investigates the decadal and interannual variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD）. It is found that the long-term IOD index displays a decadal phase variation. Prior to 1920 negative phase dominates but after 1960 positive phase prevails. Under the warming background of the tropical ocean, a larger warming trend in the western Indian Ocean is responsible for the decadal phase variation of the IOD mode. Due to reduced latent heat loss from the local ocean, the western Indian Ocean warming may be caused by the weakened Indian Ocean westerly summer monsoon. The interannual air-sea coupled IOD mode varies on the background of its decadal variability. During the earlier period （1948-1969）, IOD events are characterized by opposing SST anomaly （SSTA） in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, with a single vertical circulation above the equatorial Indian Ocean. But in the later period （1980-2003）, with positive IOD dominating, most IOD events have a zonal gradient perturbation on a uniform positive SSTA. However, there are three exceptionally strong positive IOD events （1982, 1994, and 1997）, with opposite SSTA in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, accompanied by an El Nifio event. Consequently, two anomalous reversed Walker cells are located separately over the Indian Ocean and western-eastern Pacific; the one over the Indian Ocean is much stronger than that during other positive IOD events. 相似文献
993.
994.
Twenty-one-year hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific were performed to validate the influence of ocean subsurface entrainment on SST prediction.A new hybrid coupled model was used that considered the entrainment of subsurface temperature anomalies into the sea surface.The results showed that predictions were improved significantly in the new coupled model.The predictive correlation skill increased by about 0.2 at a lead time of 9 months,and the root-mean-square (RMS) errors were decreased by nearly 0.2°C in general.A detailed analysis of the 1997-98 El Nio hindcast showed that the new model was able to predict the onset,peak (both time and amplitude),and decay of the 1997-98 strong El Nio event up to a lead time of one year,factors that are not represented well by many other forecast systems.This implies,in terms of prediction,that subsurface anomalies and their impact on the SST are one of the controlling factors in ENSO cycles.Improving the presentation of such effects in models would increase the forecast skill. 相似文献
995.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)
Abstract Changes in trend and quasi-periodicities are sought in the time series of river discharges in all major South American basins. The relationship between trends and quasi-periodicities found and climate variations on interannual and longer time scales are discussed. Consideration of multiple rivers gives insight into the geographical extent of hydrological signals and climate impacts. It is found that the streamflow of all major rivers of South America has experienced an increased trend since the early 1970s. It is suggested that this simultaneity may reflect the impact of a large-scale climate change. All the time series of river streamflows that were analysed show El Niño-like periodicities. Only for La Plata Basin do these explain a larger part of the total variance than the other quasi-periodicities. There are two other quasi-oscillations in the time series analysed: one of them with a longer period—around 17 years—and the other of about 9 years. Previous work has related these oscillations to sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean. 相似文献
996.
The Manso Glacier (~41°S, 72°W), in the northern Patagonian Andes of Argentina, is a regenerated glacier that, like many other glaciers in the region and elsewhere, has been showing a significant retreat. Glacial melt water feeds the Manso Superior River, which, before crossing the Andes to reach a Pacific outfall, flows through the Mascardi (a deep, oligotrophic and monomictic lake) and significantly smaller Hess and Steffen lakes. Harmonic analysis of Mascardi's lake level series suggests that the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation signal has been strong during the 1985–1995 decade but has grown weaker during the initial decade of the 21st century. Hydrological trend analyses applied in data recorded in the uppermost reaches show a monthly and annual decreasing trend in the Manso Superior River discharge series and Mascardi's lake level, which are connected with both, decreasing melt water discharge and (austral) wintertime atmospheric precipitation. Downstream, the decreasing signal initially looses statistical significance and then, when flowing through Steffen Lake, reverses the lake level trend that becomes significantly positive. This suggests that, on its way to the Pacific Ocean, the Manso River receives abundant Andean snow melt water and atmospheric precipitation, which are sufficient to obliterate the negative trend recorded in the uppermost reaches. The reason for this local phenomenon is that the Manso is an antecedent river (aka superposed stream), and hence, the valley crossing the Andes allows the incursion of Pacific humidity that modifies the hydrological regime several hundred kilometres inland. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
997.
Theoretical and empirical studies have suggested that an underestimate of the ENSO asymmetry may be accompanied by a climatologically smaller and warmer western Pacific warm pool. In light of this suggestion, simulations of the tropical Pacific climate by 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) climate models that do not use flux adjustment were evaluated. Our evaluation revealed systematic biases in both the mean state and ENSO statistics. The mean state in most of the models had a smaller and warmer warm pool. This common bias in the mean state was accompanied by a common bias in the simulated ENSO statistics: a significantly weak asymmetry between the two phases of ENSO. Moreover, despite the generally weak ENSO asymmetry simulated by all models, a positive correlation between the magnitude of the bias in the simulated warm-pool size and the magnitude of the bias in the simulated ENSO asymmetry was found. These findings support the suggested link between ENSO asymmetry and the tropical mean state-the climatological size and temperature of the warm pool in particular. Together with previous studies, these findings light up a path to improve the simulation of the tropical Pacific mean state by climate models: enhancing the asymmetry of ENSO in the climate models. 相似文献
998.
The seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the tropical oceans simulated by three versions of the Flexible Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model (FGOALS-g1.0, FGOALS-g2 and FGOALSs2), which have participated in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), are presented in this paper. The seasonal cycle of SST in the tropical Pacific is realistically reproduced by FGOALS-g2 and FGOALSs2, while it is poorly simulated in FGOALS-g1.0. Three feedback mechanisms responsible for the SST annual cycle in the eastern Pacific are evaluated. The ocean-atmosphere dynamic feedback, which is successfully reproduced by both FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2, plays a key role in determining the SST annual cycle, while the overestimated stratus cloud-SST feedback amplifies the annual cycle in FGOALS-s2. Because of the serious warm bias existing in FGOALS-g1.0, the ocean-atmosphere dynamic feedback is greatly underestimated in FGOALS-g1.0, in which the SST annual cycle is mainly driven by surface solar radiation. FGOALS-g1.0 simulates much stronger ENSO events than observed, whereas FGOALS-g2 and FGOALSs2 successfully simulate the observed ENSO amplitude and period and positive asymmetry, but with less strength. Further ENSO feedback analyses suggest that surface solar radiation feedback is principally responsible for the overestimated ENSO amplitude in FGOALS-g1.0. Both FGOALS-g1.0 and FGOALS-s2 can simulate two different types of El Ni-no events — with maximum SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific (EP) or in the central Pacific (CP) — but FGOALS-g2 is only able to simulate EP El Ni-no, because the negative cloud shortwave forcing feedback by FGOALS-g2 is much stronger than observed in the central Pacific. 相似文献
999.
1000.