千里岩的气温变化特征及其与西北太平洋副热带高压的关系     

贾瑞丽  郭可彩 《海洋预报》1997,14(4):67-72

本文根据１９６０～１９９４年千里岩和青岛月平均气温资料，分析了千里岩与青岛３５年来气温的年、季变化特征及差别，发现３５年来，千里岩和青岛的年、季平均气温均呈变暖趋势，但千里岩增温幅度较青岛小。从分析中发现，与气温变暖趋势相对应，西北太平洋副热带高压（以下简称副高）面积、强度指数的年、季变化也呈明显的增强、增大趋势。且年平均气温与冬季副高面积指数相关最显著。最后依此关系建立回归方程，并预测了１９９６年千里岩年平均气温的变化趋势。  相似文献   

A New Methodology for Incorporating Tide Gauge Data in Sea Surface Topography Models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. C. Iliffe  M. K. Ziebart  J. F. Turner 《Marine Geodesy》2007,30(4):271-296

As part of the Vertical Offshore Reference Frames (VORF) project sponsored by the U. K. Hydrographic Office, a new model for Sea Surface Topography (SST) around the British Isles has been developed. For offshore areas (greater than 30 km from the coast), this model is largely derived from satellite altimetry. However, its accuracy and level of detail have been enhanced in coastal areas by the inclusion of not only the 60 PSMSL tide gauges with long-term records around the coasts of the United Kingdom and Ireland but also some 385 gauges established at different epochs and for different observation spans by the U. K. Admiralty. All tide gauge data were brought into a common reference frame by a combination of datum models and direct GPS observations, but a more significant challenge was to bring all short-term sea level observations to an unbiased value at a common epoch. This was achieved through developing a spatial-temporal correlation model for the variations in mean sea level around the British Isles, which in turn meant that gauges with long-term observation spans could be used as control points to improve the accuracy of Admiralty gauges. It is demonstrated that the latter can contribute point observations of mean sea level (MSL) with a precision of 0.078 m. A combination of least squares collocation and interpolation was developed to merge the coastal point and offshore gridded data sets, with particular algorithms having to be developed for different configurations of coastal topology. The resulting model of sea surface topography is shown to present a smooth transition from inshore coastal areas to offshore zones. Further benefits of the techniques developed include an enhanced methodology for detecting datum discontinuities at permanent tide gauges.  相似文献   

Effect of Sea Level Variation on Tidal Characteristic Values for the East China Sea     

于宜法  俞聿修  左军成  万振文  陈宗镛 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(3)

1 .IntroductionTheglobalairtemperatureroseabout 0 .5～ 0 .6°Coverthepast 2 0thcentury ,andtheglobalmeansealevelincreasedbyabout2 0cmduringtheperiod .Theregionalmeansealevelriseswiththerisingglobalmeansealevel.Zuoetal.( 1 997)indicatedthatthemeanrisingrateofabsolutemeansealevelalongtheChinacoastontheassumptionofunifiedisostaticdatumis 2mm a .Woodworth( 1 999)analyzedsealevelspanning 1 76 8tothepresentinLiverpool,andobtainedaseculartrendforheperiodupto 1 880of0 .39± 0 .1 7mm a ,andatrendfort…  相似文献   

成都地区大气平均温度建模及其在GPS/PWV计算中的应用研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吕弋培  殷海涛  黄丁发  王续本 《测绘科学》2008,33(4)

地基GPS气象学的关键技术是在于通过垂直方向上GPS信号的湿分量延迟值来确定大气可降水量-PWV,而这两个物理量间进行转换时需要用到一个关键性的参数——大气加权平均温度。本文首先讨论了估算加权平均温度的几种方法,然后利用成都地区2005年全年的大气探空数据,采用回归分析方法,建立了适合成都地区的大气加权平均温度模型,精度为±2.21K。最后将该公式应用到成都地区PWV的计算中,得到了非常理想的效果。  相似文献   

利用Jason-1卫星确定全球平均海面高     

赵倩  黄舒青  朱明磊 《测绘信息与工程》2008,33(1):4-6

介绍了卫星测高数据处理的基本方法,分析研究了卫星测高的主要误差,提出了Jason-1的数据编辑准则,并用其测高数据确定了全球平均海面高,与CLS01模型进行了比较分析.  相似文献   

Estimation of covariance matrix from geochemical data with observations below detection limits     

Chang-Jo F. Chung 《Mathematical Geology》1993,25(7):851-865

Multivariate statistical analyses have been extensively applied to geochemical measurements to analyze and aid interpretation of the data. Estimation of the covariance matrix of multivariate observations is the first task in multivariate analysis. However, geochemical data for the rare elements, especially Ag, Au, and platinum-group elements, usually contain observations the below detection limits. In particular, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for the rare elements produces multilevel and possibly extremely high detection limits depending on the sample weight. Traditionally, in applying multivariate analysis to such incomplete data, the observations below detection limits are first substituted, for example, each observation below the detection limit is replaced by a certain percentage of that limit, and then the standard statistical computer packages or techniques are used to obtain the analysis of the data. If a number of samples with observations below detection limits is small, or the detection limits are relatively near zero, the results may be reasonable and most geological interpretations or conclusions are probably valid. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate the covariance matrix from a dataset containing observations below multilevel detection limits by using the marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) method. For each pair of variables, sayY andZ whose observations containing below detection limits, the proposed method consists of three steps: (i) for each variable separately obtaining the marginal MLE for the means and the variances, , , , and forY andZ: (ii) defining new variables by and and lettingA=C+D andB=C–D, and obtaining MLE for variances, and forA andB; (iii) estimating the correlation coefficient _YZ by and the covariance _YZ by . The procedure is illustrated by using a precious metal geochemical data set from the Fox River Sill, Manitoba, Canada.  相似文献   

图像平滑算法比较研究及改进策略   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

秦志远 吴冰王艳  山海涛 《测绘学院学报》2005,22(2):103-106

图像平滑作为去除图像中含有噪声的图像增强处理技术，是各种与图像有关软件中必不可少的功能模块。文中在分析噪声模型的基础上，对均值平滑、中值平滑、边缘保持平滑等技术从图像处理空间域中的算法原理、实现方法及效率等方面进行了详细比较。针对图像中含有的不同噪声模型，通过多次试验，得出了值得从事图像处理研究者参考的结论。这将有助于提高图像处理软件开发的效率。  相似文献   

短期集合降水概率预报试验   总被引：11，自引：2，他引：11       下载免费PDF全文

王晨稀 《应用气象学报》2005,16(1):78-88

以MM5模式作为试验模式, 通过选取不同的物理过程参数化方案产生8个集合成员, 分别用平均法、相关法和Rank法对2001年11月至2002年5月期间的22个降水个例进行短期集合降水概率预报试验。试验结果显示对小雨—大暴雨6类降水的概率预报, Rank法的综合预报效果明显好于相关法和平均法, 相关法的综合预报效果与平均法基本相同; 无论从均方误差角度还是从命中率和假警报率的相对大小角度, 对小雨、中雨、大雨和暴雨各量级以上降水的概率预报, Rank法的平均预报效果是三种方法中最好的, 相关法的平均预报效果与平均法相同; Rank法好于平均法的平均幅度从均方误差角度较大, 从命中率和假警报率的相对大小角度则较小。平均而言, 三种方法对各量级以上降水的概率预报都是有技巧预报, 对量级小的降水的概率预报技巧高于对量级大的降水的概率预报技巧。  相似文献   

我国松花江流域和辽河流域降水的长期变化规律和未来趋势分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

李想李维京  赵振国 《应用气象学报》2005,16(5):593-599

利用1881～2002年我国东北地区的月、季降水资料,采用历史曲线分析、功率谱分析、小波变换等方法,重点分析了松花江流域和辽河流域降水的长期变化规律。结果表明:松花江流域和辽河流域的降水都存在着明显的年代际变化,松花江流域降水以27～30年周期为主,辽河流域降水周期比松花江流域略长,大概为35～38年左右。根据降水自身演变规律及自回归方法预测的结果,估计未来5～10年,松花江流域仍将处于少雨期,辽河流域少雨期维持时间可能会稍长一些。  相似文献   

冷暖事件对大气能量循环和纬向平均环流影响的模拟研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张韬  吴国雄  郭裕福 《气象学报》2002,60(5):513-526

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室新发展的GOALS 5全球海 陆 气耦合模式研究了暖事件 (ElNi no)和冷事件 (LaNina)对大气能量循环和纬向平均环流的影响 ,并用观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明 :对于纬向平均资料来说 ,冷、暖事件在热带和副热带地区的大气环流相关量的反相变化特征非常清晰 ,中高纬度地区并不明显。此外 ,还发现 ,暖事件时定常涡动的经向热通量的变化是北半球对流层热带外地区温度异常的主要原因 ,而瞬变波的影响则起抵消作用。冷事件时定常波和瞬变波相互抵消的局地特征也依然存在 ,但瞬变波的影响有所增强。  相似文献