Cyclone life cycle characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere in coupled GCMs   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Ulrike Löptien  Olga Zolina  Sergey Gulev  Mojib Latif  Vladimir Soloviov 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(5):507-532

Cyclone activity and life cycle are analysed in the coupled GCMs ECHAM5/OM and ECHAM4/OPYC3. First, the results for the present climate (1978–1999) are compared with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, showing a drastic improvement in the representation of cyclone activity in ECHAM5/OM compared to ECHAM4/OPYC3. The total number of cyclones, cyclone intensity, propagation velocity and deepening rates are found to be much more realistic in ECHAM5/OM relative to ECHAM4/OPYC3. Then, changes in extra tropical cyclone characteristics are compared between present day climate and future climate under the emission-scenario A1B using ECHAM5/OM. This comparison is performed using the 20-year time slices 1978–1999, 2070–2090 and 2170–2190, which were considered to be representative for the various climate conditions. The total number of cyclones does not undergo significant changes in a warmer climate. However, regional changes in cyclone numbers and frequencies are evident. One example is the Mediterranean region where the number of cyclones in summer increases almost by factor 2. Some noticeable changes are also found in cyclone life cycle characteristics (deepening rate and propagation velocity). Cyclones in the future climate scenario tend to move slower and their deepening rate becomes stronger, while cyclone intensity does not undergo significant change in a warmer climate. Generally, our results do not support the hypothesis of enhanced storminess under future climate conditions.  相似文献   

热带MJO和ENSO对西北太平洋热带气旋影响研究综述   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

祝丽娟  王亚非  尹志聪 《气象科技》2012,40(1):65-73

对西北太平洋热带气旋的活动规律作了综合评述,简单回顾了热带季节内振荡（MJO）特征和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）特征以及两者间关系,较系统地总结了近年来国内外学者关于MJO和ENSO对西北太平洋海域热带气旋活动影响和机理等方面的研究成果。讨论的热带气旋活动特征包括源地、频数、路径、强度、生命期和登陆等几个方面,并简单讨论了目前该领域存在的科学问题和未来可能的研究方向。  相似文献   

新疆阿勒泰地区一次罕见暴雪天气过程分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

庄晓翠  赵正波  张林梅  田忠锋 《气象与环境学报》2010,26(6):24-30

2010年1月6—7日阿勒泰地区普降暴雪造成罕见雪灾。通过对常规资料、ECWMF客观分析和T639物理量产品00、03时及06时资料、FY2E红外云图及其黑体亮温分析,对暴雪过程及其成因进行诊断分析。结果表明:500 hPa欧亚范围内呈两槽一脊的Ω型,欧洲和萨彦岭均为深厚低涡、西西伯利亚到泰米尔半岛为强阻塞,及中纬度纬向锋区是造成此次暴雪天气的大尺度系统;地面图上,暴雪产生于中亚气旋前部的暖锋前部及850 hPa中尺度切变线和幅合线附近的重叠区域。高湿区和强上升区,云系的发展和移动均与降雪量有较好的对应关系。单站高空风时间剖面图揭示了暴雪过程中,高低空急流、切变线的变化和暖湿气流的输送;单站的物理量变化对暴雪预报有一定的指示意义。  相似文献   

2018年一次温带气旋入海爆发性增强时期的集合预报对比分析     

王慧  张博  吕心艳  曹越男  郑飞 《气候与环境研究》2019,24(6):741-754

基于实况观测资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast, ECMWF)0.5°（纬度）×0.5°（经度）水平分辨率的再分析数据和集合预报数据,对2018年2月一次入海爆发性气旋在黄海南部的爆发性增强时期的动力和热力因子进行了对比分析。根据气旋路径、强度和海面风的检验结果挑选出两组集合成员——好成员组和坏成员组。通过组间对比分析得到如下主要 结论 1）在气旋入海之后爆发性增强时,500 hPa高空槽和850 hPa中低层低涡迅速加强,同时低层和高层的西南急流均明显加大,中高层系统快速增强,上述因子均为气旋出现爆发性发展提供有利条件。2）气旋入海之后上升运动快速增强,这加剧了低层辐合与高层辐散,有利于地面降压,促使地面气旋的爆发性发展。水汽在中低层辐合后随气流上升发生凝结并释放潜热,这加强了高层辐散、低层辐合以及上升运动,促使气旋进一步爆发性发展。与此同时,对流层顶的高值位涡下传增强,低层大气斜压性受气旋上空冷暖平流的增强而增大,导致垂直稳定度减小,地面气旋性涡度增强,也有利于气旋爆发性发展。最终此次气旋快速增强并达到中等爆发性气旋的强度。3）虽然集合预报两组成员的平均场均比分析场弱,但是好成员组抓住了气旋上空中高层天气系统的快速增强过程,以及垂直运动、温度平流、水汽条件、位涡等预报因子和物理量的快速增强过程,其预报效果在气旋强度和路径等方面均显著优于坏成员组。  相似文献   

Role of magma mixing in the petrogenesis of tephra erupted during the 1990–98 explosive activity of Nevado Sabancaya,southern Peru     

Marie-Christine?GerbeEmail author  Jean-Claude?Thouret 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2004,66(6):541-561

The Nevado Sabancaya in southern Peru has exhibited a persistent eruptive activity over eight years following a violent eruption in May–June 1990. The explosive activity consisted of alternated vulcanian and phreatomagmatic events, followed by declining phreatic activity since late 1997. The mean production rate of magma has remained low (10⁶–10⁷ m³ per year).The 1990–1998 eruptive episode produced andesitic and dacitic magmas. The juvenile tephra span a narrow range of compositions (60–64 wt% SiO₂). While SiO₂ contents do vary slightly, they do not show any systematic variation with time. Phenocryst assemblages in the juvenile rocks consist of mainly plagioclase, associated with high-Ca pyroxene, hornblende, biotite, and iron-titanium oxides. Rare fine-grained magmatic enclaves, with angular to subrounded shapes, are contained within some of the juvenile lava blocks, which were expelled since 1992. They have a homogeneous andesitic composition (57 wt% SiO₂) and show randomly oriented interlocking columnar or acicular crystals (plagioclase and amphibole), with interstitial glass and a few voids, which define a quench-textured groundmass.Textural, mineralogical and chemical evidence suggests that the 1990–1998 eruptions have mainly erupted hybrid andesites, except for the 1990 dacite. The hybrid andesites contain a mixed population of plagioclase phenocrysts: Ca-rich clear plagioclase (An_40–60), Na-rich clear plagioclase (An_25–35), and inversely zoned dusty-rimmed plagioclase with a sodic core (An_25–40) surrounded by a Ca-rich mantle (An_45–65). Melt-inclusions, wavy dissolution surfaces and stepped zoning within the dusty-rimmed plagioclases are compatible with resorption induced by magma recharge events. Chemical and isotopic lines of evidence also show that andesites are hybrids resulting from magma mixing processes. Repeated magma recharge, incomplete homogenisation and different degrees of crustal assimilation may explain the extended range of isotopic signatures.Our study leads to propose an evolution model for the magmatic system at Nevado Sabancaya. The main magma body consisted of dacitic magmas differentiating through extensive open-system crystallization (AFC). Repeated recharge of more mafic magmas induced magma mixing, leading to the formation of hybrid andesites. A partially crystalline boundary layer formed at the interface between the andesites and the recharge magma. The magmatic enclaves were produced by the disruption and dispersion of this andesitic layer as a result of new magma injection and/or sustained tectonic activity.Periodic magma recharge and interactions with groundwater are two processes that have enabled the explosive regime to remain persistent over an 8-year-long period. What precise mechanism triggers the eruptive activity remains speculative, but it may be related either to new magma injection, or to the sustained tectonic activity that occurred at that time in the vicinity of the volcano, or a combination of both.  相似文献   

龙岗火山群第四纪爆破式火山作用类型与期次研究   总被引：4，自引：8，他引：4  

白志达徐德斌  张秉良张焘 卜景 《岩石学报》2006,22(6):1473-1480

龙岗火山群位于吉林省辉南和靖宇县境内的龙岗山脉中段。火山活动始于新近纪，第四纪更新世为鼎盛期，全新世以来仍有较强的喷发活动，是中国近代活动火山区之一。火山碎屑物的堆积构造、组成、显微形貌和粒度特征表明，第四纪爆破式火山作用包括岩浆爆发、射汽一岩浆爆发和射汽爆发三种类型，以岩浆和射汽-岩浆爆发最为发育。区内爆破式火山活动具有多旋回、多期次、多阶段喷发特点。据火山地质特征，可划分为9期，由老至新为：早更新世早期、晚期；中更新世三角龙湾期、旱龙湾期和金龙顶子早期；晚更新世金川东期；全新世大翁圈期、红期林场期和金龙顶子晚期。爆破式火山灾害的范围较大，岩浆爆发中高危区的半径约10km。射汽-岩浆爆发影响的半径约4km。  相似文献   

Abrupt transitions during sustained explosive eruptions: examples from the 1912 eruption of Novarupta, Alaska     

Nancy K. Adams  Bruce F. Houghton  Wes Hildreth 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2006,69(2):189-206

Plinian/ignimbrite activity stopped briefly and abruptly 16 and 45 h after commencement of the 1912 Novarupta eruption defining three episodes of explosive volcanism before finally giving way after 60 h to effusion of lava domes. We focus here on the processes leading to the termination of the second and third of these three episodes. Early erupted pumice from both episodes show a very similar range in bulk vesicularity, but the modal values markedly decrease and the vesicularity range widens toward the end of Episode III. Clasts erupted at the end of each episode represent textural extremes; at the end of Episode II, clasts have very thin glass walls and a predominance of large bubbles, whereas at the end of Episode III, clasts have thick interstices and more small bubbles. Quantitatively, all clasts have very similar vesicle size distributions which show a division in the bubble population at 30 μm vesicle diameter and cumulative number densities ranging from 10⁷–10⁹ cm^–3. Patterns seen in histograms of volume fraction and the trends in the vesicle size data can be explained by coalescence signatures superimposed on an interval of prolonged nucleation and free growth of bubbles. Compared to experimental data for bubble growth in silicic melts, the high 1912 number densities suggest homogeneous nucleation was a significant if not dominant mechanism of bubble nucleation in the dacitic magma. The most distinct clast populations occurred toward the end of Plinian activity preceding effusive dome growth. Distributions skewed toward small sizes, thick walls, and teardrop vesicle shapes are indicative of bubble wall collapse marking maturation of the melt and onset of processes of outgassing. The data suggest that the superficially similar pauses in the 1912 eruption which marked the ends of episodes II and III had very different causes. Through Episode III, the trend in vesicle size data reflects a progressive shift in the degassing process from rapid magma ascent and coupled gas exsolution to slower ascent with partial open-system outgassing as a precursor to effusive dome growth. No such trend is visible in the Episode II clast assemblages; we suggest that external changes involving failure of the conduit/vent walls are more likely to have effected the break in explosive activity at 45 h.  相似文献   

Surge simulations for 1999 Orissa super cyclone using a finite element model     

G. Latha  E. P. Rama Rao 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(3):615-625

The Orissa super cyclone which crossed the Orissa coastal region near Paradip on October 29, 1999 proved to be disastrous. The strong winds, torrential rains with heavy rainfall and high storm surge associated with the cyclone caused havoc that resulted in the death of thousands of people, cattle and extensive damage to agricultural land, paddy crop, transmission lines, power supply, roads and buildings. In the present study, a fine resolution finite element model is used to simulate surges due to this super cyclone. The model results are compared with observed surges available from post-storm survey reports. Comparison of results show that they are in good agreement with the observed surges, and the finite element model can be used for real time surge forecasts.  相似文献   

Incursion of a large-volume,spatter-bearing pyroclastic density current into a caldera lake: Pavey Ark ignimbrite,Scafell caldera,England     

Peter Kokelaar  Pamela Raine  Michael J. Branney 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2007,70(1):23-54

The Scafell caldera-lake volcaniclastic succession is exceptionally well exposed. At the eastern margin of the caldera, a large andesitic explosive eruption (>5 km³) generated a high-mass-flux pyroclastic density current that flowed into the caldera lake for several hours and deposited the extensive Pavey Ark ignimbrite. The ignimbrite comprises a thick (≤125 m), proximal, spatter- and scoria-rich breccia that grades laterally and upwards into massive lapilli-tuff, which, in turn, is gradationally overlain by massive and normal-graded tuff showing evidence of soft-state disruption. The subaqueous pyroclastic current carried juvenile clasts ranging from fine ash to metre-scale blocks and from dense andesite through variably vesicular scoria to pumice (<10³ kg m⁻³). Extreme ignimbrite lithofacies diversity resulted via particle segregation and selective deposition from the current. The lacustrine proximal ignimbrite breccia mainly comprises clast- to matrix-supported blocks and lapilli of vesicular andesite, but includes several layers rich in spatter (≤1.7 m diameter) that was emplaced in a ductile, hot state. In proximal locations, rapid deposition of the large and dense clasts caused displacement of interstitial fluid with elutriation of low-density lapilli and ash upwards, so that these particles were retained in the current and thus overpassed to medial and distal reaches. Medially, the lithofacies architecture records partial blocking, channelling and reflection of the depletive current by substantial basin-floor topography that included a lava dome and developing fault scarps. Diffuse layers reflect surging of the sustained current, and the overall normal grading reflects gradually waning flow with, finally, a transition to suspension sedimentation from an ash-choked water column. Fine to extremely fine tuff overlying the ignimbrite forms ∼25% of the whole and is the water-settled equivalent of co-ignimbrite ash; its great thickness (≤55 m) formed because the suspended ash was trapped within an enclosed basin and could not drift away. The ignimbrite architecture records widespread caldera subsidence during the eruption, involving volcanotectonic faulting of the lake floor. The eruption was partly driven by explosive disruption of a groundwater-hydrothermal system adjacent to the magma reservoir.  相似文献   

华北地区一次黄河气旋发生发展时所引起的暴雨诊断分析   总被引：13，自引：2，他引：13       下载免费PDF全文

梁丰陶诗言  张小玲 《应用气象学报》2006,17(3):257-265

利用NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料和GMS红外黑体亮度温度 (T_BB) 资料等, 对1991年6月9—11日的一次黄河气旋暴雨过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明:黄河气旋的发生发展是大气斜压性强烈发展的结果, 强的高空辐散与正涡度平流共同作用形成了黄河气旋, 对流层低层的暖平流促进了黄河气旋的进一步发展, 并对其移动方向有引导作用; 暴雨出现在黄河气旋的初生、发展阶段, 产生于气旋前部暖区的盾状云系中; 暴雨的水汽有西南和东南两个来源, 其中西南水汽通量大于东南; 暴雨区上空大气具有很强的对流不稳定性, 中尺度对流云团的发生发展, 造成了气旋降水分布的不均匀性和强降水中心; 降水造成的凝结潜热释放对气旋的发展有正反馈作用。  相似文献