The increasing predominance of extreme precipitation in Southwest China since the late 1970s          下载免费PDF全文

Guowei Zheng  Yang Li  Quanliang Chen  Xin Zhou  Guolu Gao  Minggang Li  Ting Duan 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(5):100227

Extreme precipitation events cause severe environmental and societal damage worldwide. Southwest China (SWC) is sensitive to such effects because of its overpopulation, underdevelopment, and fragile ecosystems. Using daily observations from 108 rain-gauge stations, the authors investigated the frequency of extreme precipitation events and their contribution to total precipitation in SWC since the late 1970s. Results indicate that total precipitation is decreasing insignificantly, but rainfall-events frequency is decreasing significantly, whereas the region is experiencing more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events. Note that although fewer stations are statistically significant, about 60% of the rain-gauge stations show an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation. Furthermore, there is an increasing trend in the contribution of total extreme precipitation to total precipitation, with extreme precipitation becoming dominant in the increasingly arid SWC region. The results carry important implications for policymakers, who should place greater emphasis on extreme precipitation and associated floods and landslides when drafting water-resource management policies.摘要本文分析了中国西南20世纪70年代末以来极端降水事件的频率, 强度及其对总降水的贡献. 结果表明, 该地区约60%的降水站点极端降水的频率和强度正在增加, 而大多数站点总降水频率明显减少. 同时极端降水总量对总降水量的贡献有显著增加的趋势, 极端降水在日益干旱的中国西南地区变得更具主导性. 研究结果提醒应更加重视极端降水及其可能引发的次生灾害, 如洪水, 山体滑坡等.  相似文献   

Features of the Extremely Severe Drought in the East of Southwest China and Anomalies of Atmospheric Circulation in Summer 2006   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

LI Yonghu  XU Haiming  LIU De 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(2):176-187

The spatial-temporal features of the extremely severe drought and the anomalous atmospheric circulation in summer 2006 are analyzed based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the characteristic circulation indices given by the National Climate Center of China, and the daily precipitation data of 20 stations in the east of Southwest China (ESC) from 1959 to 2006. The results show that the rainless period started from early June and ended in early September 2006 with a total of more than 80 days, and the rainfall was especially scarce from around 25 July to 5 September 2006. Precipitation for each month was less than normal, and analysis of the precipitation indices shows that the summer precipitation in 2006 was the least since 1959. The extremely severe drought in the ESC in summer 2006 was closely related to the persistent anomalies of the atmospheric circulation in the same period, i.e., anomalies of mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation, western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), westerlies, South Asian high, lower-level flow, water vapor transport, vertical motion, and so on. Droughts usually occur when the WPSH lies anomalously northward and westward, or anomalously weak and eastward. The extreme drought in summer 2006 was caused by the former. When the WPSH turned stronger and shifted to the north and west of its normal position, and the South Asian high was also strong and lay eastward, downdrafts prevailed over the ESC and suppressed the water vapor transfer toward this area. At the same time, the disposition of the westerlies and the mid-high latitude circulation disfavored the southward invasion of cold air, which jointly resulted in the extremely severe drought in the ESC in summer 2006. The weak heating over the Tibetan Plateau and vigorous convective activities over the Philippine area were likely responsible for the strong WPSH and its northwestward shift in summer 2006.  相似文献   

A note of caution when interpreting parameters of the distribution of excesses     

Pierre Ribereau  Philippe NaveauArmelle Guillou 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(10):1215-1221

In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations.  相似文献   

南京极值温度长期变化及其与平均温度的关系     

闫少锋  张金池  张波  王永平  俞红  闵俊杰  张增信 《辽宁气象》2011,(3):33-39

利用1951—2009年南京日平均气温、日最高气温以及日最低气温等资料,分析了南京日最高气温和最低气温的长期演变趋势及其与平均温度的关系。结果表明：近60 a来,南京年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均呈变暖趋势,20世纪90年代增温尤为明显;日最高气温,除夏季表现为降温趋势外,其他季节均为升温趋势;而四季平均气温和平均最低气温均为增温趋势;夏季气温日较差下降趋势明显,导致夏季昼夜温差减小;极端高温、低温的发生日数均呈下降趋势。极端气温与平均气温之间存在明显的相关性,且极端低温对平均气温影响更为明显。  相似文献   

北太平洋高度场异常关联中心的空间结构特征的研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

季飞  支蓉  龚志强 《大气科学》2011,35(4):721-728

采用NCEP/NCAR全球高度场和地面气压资料,研究了北太平洋负关联中心由低层到高层的空间分布,以及与其有较强关联的异常关联中心的特征.结果表明,各高度场中与北太平洋关联比较显著的中心比较一致,主要分布在三个区域:赤道中太平洋和白令海峡的负关联中心,以及北美大陆东南部的正关联中心.三个区域内格点对北太平洋的综合作用表现...  相似文献   

站网均匀化订正对中国夏季气温EOF分析的改进   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

罗小莉  李丽平  王盘兴 《大气科学》2011,35(4):620-630

本文对中国160站站网上1960～2010年夏季(6～8月)气温距平场序列进行了站网均匀化订正,对订正前、后的气温距平场序列作了EOF分析.结果表明:(1)订正后的前3个典型场高绝对值区均衡分布在三北(东北、华北、西北)地区、青藏高原和长江中下游地区,与夏季气温均方差场高值区位置基本一致;订正前的前3个特征向量高绝对值...  相似文献   

南京极值温度长期变化及其与平均温度的关系          下载免费PDF全文

闫少锋  张金池  张波  王永平  俞红  闵俊杰  张增信 《气象与环境学报》2011,27(3):33-39

利用1951-2009年南京日平均气温、日最高气温以及日最低气温等资料,分析了南京日最高气温和最低气温的长期演变趋势及其与平均温度的关系。结果表明：近60a来,南京年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均呈变暖趋势,20世纪90年代增温尤为明显;日最高气温,除夏季表现为降温趋势外,其他季节均为升温趋势;而四季平均气...  相似文献   

Anomalous Signals Prior to Wenchuan Earthquake Detected by Superconducting Gravimeter and Broadband Seismometers Records     

申文斌  王迪晋  黄金维 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2011,(5)

Using 1 Hz sampling records at one superconducting gravimeter(SG) station and 11 broadband seismometer stations,we found anomalous signals prior to the 2008 Wenchuan(汶川) earthquake event.The tides are removed from the original SG records to obtain the gravity residuals.Applying the Hilbert-Huang transform(HHT) and the wavelet analysis to the SG gravity residuals leads to time-frequency spectra,which suggests that there is an anomalous signal series around 39 h prior to the event.The period and the magnitude...  相似文献   

On the long-term response of marine structures     

L.V.S. Sagrilo  A. NaessA.S. Doria 《Applied Ocean Research》2011,33(3):208-214

This paper addresses some important issues related to the estimation of long-term extreme responses of marine structures. Several convolution models to establish the long-term distribution of a marine structure response parameter are available in the literature. These methods are typically based either on all short-term peaks, all extreme short-term peaks or all short-term upcrossing rates. The main assumptions and simplifications of the five models most usually found in the literature are discussed in this paper. A linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system along with a bi-lognormal probability model for significant wave heights and zero-crossing wave periods have been used for numerical tests. An improved approach to efficiently evaluate the long-term convolution integrals is also proposed in this paper. It is shown that a combination of the Inverse First Order Reliability Method (IFORM) and an Importance Sampling Monte Carlo Simulation (ISMCS) approach can be used to obtain a very good result for the exact solution of long-term integrals.  相似文献   

Effects of an exceptional drought on daily activity patterns, reproductive behaviour, and reproductive success of reintroduced Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx)     

K. Ismail  K. KamalM. Plath  T. Wronski 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(2):125-131

Activity patterns, social behaviour, and reproductive success of Arabian oryx were monitored in a reintroduced population in Mahazat as-Sayd Protected Area, Saudi Arabia. During the first year of the study, precipitation was 38% lower than the long-term average, whereas rainfall in the following year resulted in precipitation that was 92.8% of the long-term average. These dramatically different rainfall conditions corresponded with distinct patterns in various environmental parameters (air and soil temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, air pressure). Daily activity patterns, the frequency of social behaviours, and foraging activity were significantly reduced during the drought period. The frequency of reproductive behaviour was significantly related to daytime, air temperature and radiation, with a pronounced reduction of reproductive activities during the drought. Monthly rates of conceptions were considerably lower during the drought. Our results substantiate the idea that extended dry periods affect the population development of Oryx, but also raise questions about habitat suitability and carrying capacity. Future management of Arabian oryx should consider extreme climatic events as factors influencing various aspects of the ecology and behaviour of this species. This aspect may become even more important in the face of climate change, including a future increase of extreme climatic events.  相似文献