Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments     

Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner  Jan Seibert 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(8):1281-1299

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.  相似文献   

Experimental analysis of reservoir release wave routing in upland boulder bed rivers     

D. J. Gilvear 《水文研究》1989,3(3):261-276

Reservoir release wave routing during 33 controlled reservoir releases, along 15 upland boulder bed river channel reaches, on five different regulated rivers were monitored to assess the importance of river channel roughness and reservoir release magnitude on reservoir release wave speeds. Wave speeds varied between 0.52 and 3.01 m s^?1. Reservoir release wave translation, steepening, and attenuation occurred. With high channel roughness values reservoir release wave arrival speed is retarded in comparison to peak stage and wave steepening occurs, but with a reduction in channel roughness reservoir release wave front arrival is accelerated producing attentuation. The threshold between reservoir release wave front attenuation and steepening occurs at a pre-release discharge/channel width of approximately 0.1, an index of channel roughness. The paper also demonstrates, via comparison of observed and calculated reservoir release wave speeds on the River Washburn, Yorkshire, the difficulty of accurately predicting flood wave movement in upland boulder bed channels using existing prediction equations. The calculated values, however, revealed systematic error with pre-release discharge and reservoir release magnitude. Apparently the equations fail to account for the effects of high channel roughness together with pressure gradient forces, induced by rapid rates of stage change on the rising limb of reservoir releases. In order to accurately predict reservoir release wave movement in regulated rivers, this paper demonstrates that hydraulic studies need to be undertaken and pre-release discharges prescribed to determine desired reservoir release wave routing behaviour. Manipulation of the reservoir release pattern at the dam alone, cannot dictate reservoir release wave front form downstream or wave speed.  相似文献   

甘肃省春季沙尘暴强弱年份大气环流特征对比分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

俞亚勋  赵建华 《干旱气象》2003,21(3):48-57

文中使用NCEP/NCAR1955～2000年全球月平均再分析网格点资料(2.5°×2.5°纬度/经度)和甘肃省区域性沙尘暴过程资料,分别选取了甘肃省5个春季典型沙尘暴年份和5个春季非沙尘暴年份,对其气候平均的大尺度环流场和有关物理量场的动力和热力结构差异进行了对比分析。初步探讨了甘肃省春季沙尘暴发生与全球海温异常的关系。分析结果表明,甘肃省春季沙尘暴年和非沙尘暴年大尺度高低空环流场和有关物理量场差异明显,从而揭示了沙尘暴形成的大尺度环流以及动力和热力因子影响的事实,以期对我国西北地区沙尘暴气候成因有更全面深入的了解,为沙尘暴短期气候预测提供理论依据和强信号。  相似文献   

Diffusive wave solutions for open channel flows with uniform and concentrated lateral inflow     

P. Fan  J.C. Li 《Advances in water resources》2006

The diffusive wave equation with inhomogeneous terms representing hydraulics with uniform or concentrated lateral inflow into a river is theoretically investigated in the current paper. All the solutions have been systematically expressed in a unified form in terms of response function or so called K-function. The integration of K-function obtained by using Laplace transform becomes S-function, which is examined in detail to improve the understanding of flood routing characters. The backwater effects usually resulting in the discharge reductions and water surface elevations upstream due to both the downstream boundary and lateral inflow are analyzed. With a pulse discharge in upstream boundary inflow, downstream boundary outflow and lateral inflow respectively, hydrographs of a channel are routed by using the S-functions. Moreover, the comparisons of hydrographs in infinite, semi-infinite and finite channels are pursued to exhibit the different backwater effects due to a concentrated lateral inflow for various channel types.  相似文献   

Space-time soil wetness variations monitoring by a multi-temporal microwave satellite records analysis     

T. Lacava  E.V. Di Leo  V. Tramutoli 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2006,31(18):1274-1283

In the last few years, remote sensing observations have become a useful tool for providing hydrological information, including the quantification of the main physical characteristics of the catchment, such as topography and land use, and of its variables, like soil moisture or snow cover. Moreover, satellite data have also been largely used in the framework of hydro-meteorological risk mitigation.Recently, an innovative Soil Wetness Variation Index (SWVI) has been proposed, using data acquired by the microwave radiometer AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) which flies aboard NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellites.SWVI is based on a general approach for multi-temporal satellite data analysis (RAT - Robust AVHRR Techniques). This approach exploits the analysis of long-term multi-temporal satellite records in order to obtain a former characterization of the measured signal, in term of expected value and natural variability, providing a further identification of signal anomalies by an automatic, unsupervised change-detection step. Such an approach has already demonstrated, in several studies carried out on extreme flooding events which occurred in Europe in the past few years, its capability in reducing spurious effects generated by natural/observational noise. In this paper, the proposed approach is applied to the analysis of the flooding event which occurred in Europe (primarily in NW Spain) in June 2000. Results obtained, in terms of reliability as well as efficiency in space-time monitoring of soil wetness variation, are presented. Future prospects, in terms of exportability of the methodology on the new dedicated satellite missions, like ESA-SMOS and NASA-HYDROS, are also discussed.  相似文献   

Large phreatomagmatic vent complex at Coombs Hills, Antarctica: Wet, explosive initiation of flood basalt volcanism in the Ferrar-Karoo LIP   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Murray McClintock  James D. L. White 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2006,68(3):215-239

The Mawson Formation and correlatives in the Transantarctic Mountains and South Africa record an early eruption episode related to the onset of Ferrar-Karoo flood basalt volcanism. Mawson Formation rocks at Coombs Hills comprise mainly (≥80% vol) structureless tuff breccia and coarse lapilli tuff cut by irregular dikes and sills, within a large vent complex (>30 km²). Quenched juvenile fragments of generally low but variable vesicularity, accretionary lapilli and country rock clasts within vent-fill, and pyroclastic density current deposits point to explosive interaction of basalt with groundwater in porous country rock and wet vent filling debris. Metre-scale dikes and pods of coherent basalt in places merge imperceptibly into peperite and then into surrounding breccia. Steeply dipping to sub-vertical depositional contacts juxtapose volcaniclastic rocks of contrasting componentry and grainsize. These sub-vertical tuff breccia zones are inferred to have formed when jets of debris + steam + water passed through unconsolidated vent-filling deposits. These jets of debris may have sometimes breached the surface to form subaerial tephra jets which fed subaerial pyroclastic density currents and fall deposits. Others, however, probably died out within vent fill before reaching the surface, allowing mixing and recycling of clasts which never reached the atmosphere. Most of the ejecta that did escape the debris-filled vents was rapidly recycled as vents broadened via lateral quarrying of country rock and bedded pyroclastic vent-rim deposits, which collapsed along the margins into individual vents. The unstratified, poorly sorted deposits comprising most of the complex are capped by tuff, lapilli tuff and tuff breccia beds inferred to have been deposited on the floor of the vent complex by pyroclastic density currents. Development of the extensive Coombs Hills vent-complex involved interaction of large volumes of magma and water. We infer that recycling of water, as well as recycling of pyroclasts, was important in maintaining water supply for phreatomagmatic interactions even when aquifer rock in the vent walls lay far from eruption sites as a consequence of vent-complex widening. The proportion of recycled water increased with vent-complex size in the same way that the proportion of recycled tephra did. Though water recycling leaves no direct rock record, the volcaniclastic deposits within the vent complex show through their lithofacies/structural architecture, lithofacies characteristics, and particle properties clear evidence for extensive and varied recycling of material as the complex evolved. Editorial responsibility: J. Donnelly-Nolan  相似文献   

Pahoehoe flows from the central Paraná Continental Flood Basalts     

Breno L. Waichel  Evandro F. de Lima  Romulo Lubachesky  Carlos A. Sommer 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2006,68(7-8):599-610

Inflated and compound pahoehoe flows have been identified within the central Paraná Continental Flood Basalts based upon their morphology, surface features, and internal zonation. Pahoehoe flow features have been studied at five localities in the western portion of Paraná State, Brazil: Ponte Queimada, Toledo, Rio Quitéria, Matelandia and Cascavel. We have interpreted the newly recognized flow features using concepts of Hawaiian pahoehoe formation and emplacement that have been previously applied to the Columbia River Basalt and Deccan Plateau. Surface features and/or internal structure typical from pahoehoe lavas are observed in all studied areas and features like inflation clefts, squeeze-ups, breakouts, and P-type lobes with two levels of pipe vesicles are indicative of inflation in these flows. The thinner, compound pahoehoe flows are predominantly composed of P-type lobes and probably emerged at the end of large inflated flows on shallow slopes. The presence of vesicular cores in the majority of compound lobes and the common occurrence of segregation structures suggests high water content in the pahoehoe lavas from the central PCFB. More volcanological studies are necessary to determinate the rheology of lavas and refine emplacement models.Editorial responsibility: C. Kilburn  相似文献   

华北地区未来50年地震危险性与强震预测研究     

张卫东  李茂林  王九洋  史宏伟 《东北地震研究》2006,22(4):6-13

本文对文献[1]、[2]的某些结论和结果作了认真的分析和讨论,提出了不同的观点。应用极值理论和b值方法对华北地震区未来50年的地震危险性和活动水平进行了分析,给出了各震级档次地震发生的概率预测。  相似文献   

A cost–benefit appraisal of coastal managed realignment policy     

R.K. Turner  D. Burgess  D. Hadley  E. Coombes  N. Jackson   《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(3-4):397-407

European coasts are coming under increasing threat as a result of climate change from erosion and flooding. While coastal defences such as sea walls have been constructed since Roman times to protect human settlements from the sea, it is now increasingly recognised that these defences are unsustainable. The security provided by ‘hard’ engineered defences has encouraged development on the coast, and the defences themselves have led to the loss of intertidal habitat and the natural protection it provides.An alternative to maintaining ‘hard’ defences (hold-the-line) to protect land from increasing sea levels is managed realignment, where the engineered defences are deliberately breached. By allowing the coastline to recede to a new line of defence further inland, intertidal habitat is created providing natural protection from flooding and erosion.The study evaluates the economic efficiency—using cost–benefit analysis—of various managed realignment scenarios compared to a strategy of holding-the-line within the Humber estuary in North-east England. The results of this analysis show that managed realignment can be more economically efficient than holding-the-line over a sufficiently long time period—generally greater than 25 years. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that results are more sensitive to the amount and value of intertidal habitat generated than they are to the amount and value of carbon stored by this habitat. Cost–benefit analysis is viewed as one component of a wider policy appraisal process within integrated coastal management.  相似文献   

400年来北极巴罗角的温度变化特征   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

王国  张青松 《极地研究》1998,10(1):14-19

近４００年湖泊岩芯温度记录揭示,巴罗地区总的变化趋势是升温,平均升温速率为每百年０．４℃,但近２００年呈降温趋势。熵谱分析表明,近代巴罗地区温度波动存在３３年、４０年、２９年周期和９０年左右的世纪周期;１９２１～１９９４年巴罗气象台逐月温度资料统计分析和熵谱分析表明,现代巴罗温度变化有４个月、半年、１４个月、１６个月、３年、４年、７年和１０年周期。  相似文献