区域滑坡泥石流灾害预警理论与方法研究   总被引：39，自引：4，他引：39  

刘传正 《水文地质工程地质》2004,31(3):1-6

根据数年来的调查观测研究和工作实践,提出了滑坡泥石流灾害的预警分类体系,包括按物理参量划分的空间、时间与强度预警和按诱发因素参量划分的气象、地震与人类活动预警以及多参数、多因素共同作用下的综合预警。初步创建了区域性滑坡泥石流灾害暴发的两种预警理论方法,一种是基于临界过程降雨量判据图的预警方法;另一种是基于GIS的地质环境空间分析预警理论方法,通过计算预警区的滑坡泥石流灾害"发育度"、"潜势度"、"危险度"和"危害度"来实现。阐述了滑坡泥石流灾害预警的技术和行政工作程序,指出建立临界过程降雨量判据与地质环境空间分析相耦合的滑坡泥石流灾害预警理论方法是研究的新方向。  相似文献   

四川雅安地质灾害时空预警试验区初步研究   总被引：11，自引：2，他引：11  

刘传正  李云贵  温铭生  肖智林  钟沛林  周策  李媛  朱晓冬 《水文地质工程地质》2004,31(4):20-30

借鉴美国旧金山湾和香港地区的经验,提出了地质灾害监测预警试验区建设和研究思路。经过近两年的工作,初步建成了四川雅安地质灾害监测预警试验区。取得的阶段性成果主要有:(1)根据现场考察和试验区地质灾害数据库,统计研究了降雨型滑坡的几何特征;(2)建成了由20台遥测雨量计构成的降雨观测网,取得了2002年4月～2003年8月的降雨观测数据;(3)结合历史降雨资料分析,初步研究了雅安试验区的年、日、小时和十分钟最大降雨特征;(4)研制了斜坡岩土体含水量野外监测仪,取得了桑树坡试验点2003年4月～8月的实时监测数据;(5)自上而下分4层研究了斜坡岩土层含水量变化,发现了岩土层含水量变化对降雨过程的滞后性;(6)基于区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法(AMFP),利用地质灾害因子分析结果,分别计算了雅安试验区地质灾害"发育度"和"潜势度";(7)利用2003年8月23～25日的过程降雨观测资料,对雅安试验区在该降雨过程中发生的地质灾害事件进行了时空预警反演模拟研究,计算出的地质灾害"危险度"分布比较符合实际,"危险度"可以作为预警指数使用。  相似文献   

Hydro-thermal performance of multilayer capillary barriers in arid lands     

A. M. O. Mohamed  I. Shooshpasha 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2004,22(1):19-42

In this study, a capillary barrier system was designed and tested for an arid land environment. To simulate arid land conditions of high temperature and sub-irrigation systems, the barrier was subjected to thermal and hydraulic gradients in opposite directions; to test the barrier system under these severe conditions, an experimental apparatus was designed and fabricated. The multilayer capillary barrier consisted of three layers made of silica sand, a mixture of sand and bentonite in equal portions, and a mixture of clay (25%) and aggregate (75%). Several one dimensional coupled heat and moisture tests were performed. Temperature variations along the thickness of the barrier were recorded as a function of time, and at the end of each test, the barrier was sliced into small sections, for the determination of volumetric water content as a function of distance from the heat source. The experimental results were discussed in view of the barrier's intended purpose of its ability to store moisture for long time durations. Coupled heat and moisture flow equations were developed and solved numerically via a finite difference method. Diffusivity parameters were calculated by using experimental results, a numerical model, and Powell's conjugate directions method of nonlinear optimization. The model was calibrated and the results were discussed. Good agreement between calculated and experimental results was obtained. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Simulations of a coupled hydro-chemo-mechanical system in rocks     

Jishan Liu  Barry H. Brady 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2004,22(1):121-133

A coupled hydro-chemo-mechanical numerical model is developed for these coupled phenomena in many engineering fields. The model has been applied to predicting the response of a stressed rockmass column to an injected reactive fluid (reagent) flow. The response includes evolutions of porosity, permeability, reagent and mineral concentrations during dissolution. In the model, the progress of dissolution is defined by the change in porosity ratio and the porosity increases with dissolution assuming there is no precipitation. The numerical evolutions of porosity, permeability, reagent and mineral concentrations during dissolution are validated against steady state solutions. The model results show that these evolutions are regulated to a certain extent by the applied external loadings: an applied extensional stress enhances the progress of the dissolution process while an applied compression stress slows the progress of the dissolution process. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

富宁两次大暴雨的对比研究     

张文  蒋盛闻 《云南地理环境研究》2004,(Z1)

对比云南富宁2001年“8·25”与2004年“5·15”两次大暴雨过程前后的雨量分布、灾情、大气环流背景,以及反映大气水汽、热力、动力条件的部分物理量场,分析它们在两次过程中的异同点,讨论各类条件对暴雨落区的指示性情况,并对“5·15”过程的雷达回波资料作简单的定量分析。  相似文献   

中国西部干旱区生态环境演变过程   总被引：10，自引：13，他引：10  

潘晓玲  马映军  高炜  齐家国  师庆东  陆海燕 《中国沙漠》2004,24(6):663-673

根据湖沼沉积、黄土沉积和冰积等地质记录，运用地理信息系统、遥感、生态景观学等方法．从万年、千年和百年及百年以下四个时间尺度对中国西部干旱区生态环境演变过程进行研究。结果表明，全新世以来，中国西部干旱区的气候变化经历了多次的相对暖干和相对冷湿交替变化，变化历程较为复杂。早全新世、中全新世、晚全新世气候特点因地因时而异，但总体特征以干旱化为主，280～350a来，降水量有明显的减少趋势，并表现出显著的周期性。但在近半个世纪以来，中国天山地区的气候变化特征表现为气温升高，降水量增加。总的来说，从20世纪80年代以来，新疆的气候趋于好转，植被覆盖状况改善明显，山地森林、草甸、人工绿洲的面积均呈增加趋势。研究结果还表明，在一定尺度的气候背景条件下，地表的植被覆盖对调节绿洲区域气候有着积极的作用，可增加局部地区的降水。  相似文献   

Relationship between solar radiation and the development and morphology of small cirque glaciers (Maladeta Mountain massif, Central Pyrenees, Spain)     

Javier Chueca  Asunción Julián 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2004,86(1):81-89

Abstract Spatial and temporal variations in radiative fluxes influence glacier mass‐balance in mountain areas. The primary goal of this study was to assess differences in solar radiation on three glacial cirques located in the Maladeta Mountain massif (Central Spanish Pyrenees), and analyse their implications on glacier development and morphology. A quantitative approach is adopted to obtain the values of solar radiation (direct, diffuse and global radiation), combining several field data parameters (measured at 55 control‐points) with the solar radiation modelling package Ecosim. The data obtained confirm that the morphologies of the glacial bodies developed in the three cirques have a good correlation with the spatial variation on solar radiation inputs, favouring also the conservation (Aneto and Coronas cirques) or total vanishing (Llosás cirque) of the glacial remnants analysed here. The study shows how strongly in this Alpine‐Mediterranean context solar radiation — firstly as a function of latitude and time of year, and locally as a function of topographic slope, aspect and shadowing — controls the mass‐balance and the spatial distribution of melting in small glaciers, having an effect on the development of their morphologies.  相似文献   

Further examples of ventifacts and unusual patterned ground from the Falkland Islands, South Atlantic     

Peter Wilson  Emma J. Edwards 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2004,86(1):107-115

Abstract Examples of ventifacts and forms of unusual patterned ground that differ in situation, characteristics and/or origin to types reported previously are described from the Falkland Islands, South Atlantic. The ventifacts, represented by clasts projecting from an eroding tillite shore platform, have been grooved by the passage of windblown sand. The patterned ground forms comprise stone polygons on clay loam regolith, stone polygons on peat, peat‐filled desiccation cracks on peat, and clusters of on‐edge clasts (stone packings) on a gravel beach. Aeolian transport of particles is considered responsible for the infill of the polygonal cracks. The clusters of on‐edge clasts are thought to have developed as a result of wave action, in particular backwash and/or undertow. Although these features occupy small surface areas they provide useful information about local geomorphic processes and testify to the marked diversity of such features in nature.  相似文献   

Atmospheric hydrological budget with its effects over Tibetan Plateau     

BAI Jingyu  XU Xiangde 《地理学报》2004,14(1):81-86

Based on 1961-2000 NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis datasets, vapor transfer and hydrological budget over the Tibetan Plateau are investigated. The Plateau is a vapor sink all the year round. In summer, vapor is convergent in lower levels (from surface to 500 hPa) and divergent in upper levels (from 400 to 300 hPa), with 450 hPa referred to as level of non-divergence. Two levels have different hydrologic budget signatures: the budget is negative at the upper levels from February to November, i.e., vapor transfers from the upper levels over the plateau; as to the lower, the negative (positive) budget occurs during the winter (summer) half year. Evidence also indicates that Tibetan Plateau is a "vapor transition belt", vapor from the south and the west is transferred from lower to upper levels there in summer, which will affect surrounding regions, including eastern China, especially, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze. Vapor transfer exerts significant influence on precipitation in summertime months. Vapor transferred from the upper layers helps humidify eastern China, with coefficient -0.3 of the upper budget to the precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze (MLRY); also, vapor transferred from east side (27.5o-32.5oN) of the upper level has remarkable relationship with precipitation, the coefficient being 0.41. The convergence of the lower level vapor has great effects on the local precipitation over the plateau, with coefficient reaching 0.44, and the vapor passage affects the advance and retreat of the rainbelt. In general, atmospheric hydrologic budget and vapor transfer over the plateau have noticeable effects on precipitation of the target region as well as the ambient areas.  相似文献   

Modelling the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall: a case study in the wet and dry tropics of North East Australia     

A.K.L. Johnson 《The Australian geographer》2004,35(1):39-57

Rainfall regimes with strong spatial and temporal variation are characteristic of many coastal regions of north and eastern Australia. In coastal regions of north eastern Australia, regimes vary considerably over short distances. This occurs because of changes in local topography, including the height and orientation of mountain ranges and the direction of the coastline with respect to the prevailing moist south east air stream. Northern Australia experiences a tropical monsoon climate with rainfall occurring predominantly during the summer months. Areas with a closer proximity to the coast typically experience the heavier rainfalls. While networks of rainfall gauges have been established and continuous records are available for most of these stations from the 1890s, their low distribution density relative to the complexity of rainfall pattern they are required to represent means that there remains a poor understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in the wet tropics. An enhanced knowledge of rainfall distribution in both space and time has the potential to deliver significant economic and environmental benefits to managers of natural resources. This paper reports on the application of a technique for estimating mean annual and mean monthly rainfall across the Herbert River catchment of north east Australia's dry and wet tropics. The technique utilises thin plate smoothing splines to incorporate both location and elevation into estimates of rainfall distribution. We demonstrate that the method can be applied successfully at the meso scale and within the domain of routinely available data. As such, the method has broad relevance for decision making.  相似文献