Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

G. Zhou  T. Esaki  Y. Mitani  M. Xie  J. Mori 《Engineering Geology》2003,68(3-4):373-386

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using a combined Geographic Information System (GIS), infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed and applied in the landslide-prone area of Sasebo city, southern Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. Calculated results of slope angle and slope aspect derived from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the identified stream network, the thickness distribution of the colluvium above Tertiary strata is determined with precision. Finally, by integrating an infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS, and applying spatial processing, a slope failure probability distribution map is obtained for the case of both low and high water levels.  相似文献   

Circulation characteristics of a monsoon depression during BOBMEX-99 using high-resolution analysis     

Ananda K. Das  U. C. Mohanty  Someshwar Das  M. Manual  S. R. Kalsi 《Journal of Earth System Science》2003,112(2):165-184

The skill and efficiency of a numerical model mostly varies with the quality of initial values, accuracy on parameterization of physical processes and horizontal and vertical resolution of the model. Commonly used low-resolution reanalyses are hardly able to capture the prominent features associated with organized convective processes in a monsoon depression. The objective is to prepare improved high-resolution analysis by the use of MM5 modelling system developed by the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR). It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution of 2.5‡ (latitude/longitude) have been used as first guess in the objective analysis scheme. The additional asynoptic datasets obtained during BOBMEX-99 are utilized within the assimilation process. Cloud Motion Wind (CMW) data of METEOSAT satellite and SSM/I surface wind data are included for the improvement of derived analysis. The multiquadric (MQD) interpolation technique is selected and applied for meteorological objective analysis at a horizontal resolution of 30 km. After a successful inclusion of additional data, the resulting reanalysis is able to produce the structure of convective organization as well as prominent synoptic features associated with monsoon depression. Comparison and error verifications have been done with the help of available upper-air station data. The objective verification reveals the efficiency of the analysis scheme.  相似文献   

Recent Precipitation Trends in Hungary in the Context of Larger Scale Climatic Changes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Domonkos  Peter 《Natural Hazards》2003,29(2):255-271

The time series of monthly precipitation totals from 14 Hungarian observing stations (1901–1998) were analysed to reveal the long term changes in precipitation characteristics occurred in the 20th century. A particular attention was given to the changes in the recent decades and their links with the larger scale climatic and circulation changes over Europe and the Atlantic.The statistical significancesof systematic changes are controlled by linear trend analysis and the Mann–Kendall test. The long term fluctuations are illustrated applying a 15-point Gaussian filter on the time series. The Standardised Precipitation Index is used to evaluate the changes in the drought event frequency. The relationships with larger scale changes are mostly discussed relying on contemporary papers, and the Grosswetterlagen Catalogue is used as well.The annual precipitation total decreased by 15–20% in Hungary during the 20th century. The decline is substantial in both halves of the century, but the precipitation sums in the transition seasons declined in the first 50 years, and the winter precipitation decreased in the latest decades. The precipitation total of the period November–February declined significantly in the last 50 years. In the same time the mean winter value of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) increased, the positions of the main pressure patterns over the Atlantic are shifted northeastward, and lot of other coherent changes detected in the winter climate of the European–Atlantic region. The mean summer precipitation total has hardly changed, but the frequency of summer drought events increased. There are some signs of a shift of the Hungarian summer climate towards a Mediterranean like climate.  相似文献   

Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999     

A. K. Mitra  M. Das Gupta  R. K. Paliwal  S. V. Singh 《Journal of Earth System Science》2003,112(2):223-232

A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.  相似文献   

A Linear Programming Approach to Determine the Normative Composition of Sedimentary Rocks     

V. N. Podkovyrov  O. V. Graunov  R. L. Cullers 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(4):459-476

The analysis of modal and normative composition of sedimentary rocks is widely used for studying their sources and tectonic settings. The normative calculation of the mineral composition of rocks in this study is formulated as a linear programming problem and is solved by means of the simplex method. This enables both simultaneous and successive subtraction of a set of basic minerals from a rock sample represented by its chemical composition {SiO₂...LOI}. Such an approach provides a more exact calculation of the contribution of basic minerals in the rock. This mathematical approach is used to study two representative sets of sandstones and fine-grained rocks from a Meso- to Neoproterozoic marginal basin of southeastern Siberia (Uchur–Maya region, Yakutia) and a Pennsylvanian-Lower Permian uplifted continental block in Colorado, USA. The calculated normative mineral compositions of the Siberian sandstones are consistent with the observed modal compositions. These sandstones vary from K- Feldspar rich arkoses at the base of the sequence (the Uchur Group, lower Riphean) to quartz arenites or lithic sandstones and wacke in transgressive successions of the middle-upper Riphean. Arkoses and quartz arenites are dominant in Meso- to Neoproterozoic Siberia. These samples represent craton interior uplifted basement and quartzose, recycled orogen provenance of a stable craton in Rodinia. There are higher but consistent discrepancies between the calculated and observed compositions for the Pennsylvanian to Lower-Permian arkoses and quartz arenites (Sangre de Cristo, Belden, and Maroon Formations). The differences between the predicted and observed mineralogy may be due to uncertainties in the modes in the matrix and cement of the sandstones. This normative program should supplement modal calculations and provide better genetic constructions, especially in case of matrix-rich sandstones.  相似文献   

Stability analysis of the Vallcebre translational slide,Eastern Pyrenees (Spain) by means of a GIS   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Corominas  Jordi  Santacana  Núria 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):473-485

The stability of the landslide of Vallcebre has been evaluated by means of a GIS. The landslide mechanism is a translational failure which has been analysed as an infinite slope. Soil strength parameters and groundwater conditions are obtained from laboratory tests and monitoring devices. Geometric parameters necessary to compute the factor of safety at each individual cell are generated by interpolation from the boreholes present in the landslide. The results have been checked with the actual behaviour of the landslide and are consistent. The comparison between a conventional slope stability analysis and the GIS-based approach gives similar results, showing the feasibility of the latter.  相似文献   

Predictive GIS-Based Model of Rockfall Activity in Mountain Cliffs   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6  

Marquínez  J.  Menéndez Duarte  R.  Farias  P.  JiméNez Sánchez  M. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):341-360

Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics.  相似文献   

Provenance analysis and tectonic setting of the Ordovician clastic deposits in the southern Puna Basin, NW Argentina   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Udo Zimmermann  Heinrich Bahlburg† 《Sedimentology》2003,50(6):1079-1104

Provenance studies on Early to Middle Ordovician clastic formations of the southern Puna basin in north-western Argentina indicate that the sedimentary detritus is generally composed of reworked crustal material. Tremadoc quartz-rich turbidites (Tolar Chico Formation, mean composition Q_t89 F7 L4) are followed by volcaniclastic rocks and greywackes (Tolillar Formation, mean Q_t33 F42 L25). These are in turn overlain by volcaniclastic deposits (mean Q_t24 F30 L46) of the Diablo Formation (late Arenig–early Llanvirn) that are intercalated by lava flows. All units were deformed in the Oclóyic Orogeny during the Middle and Late Ordovician. Sandstones of the Tolar Chico Formation are characterized by Th/Sc ratios > 1, La/Sc ratios ≈ 10, whereas associated fine-grained wackes show slightly lower values for both ratios. LREE (light rare earth elements) enrichment of the arenites is ≈ 50× chondrite, Eu/Eu* values are between 0·72 and 0·92, and flat HREE (heavy rare earth elements) patterns indicate a derivation from mostly felsic rocks of typical upper crustal composition. The ε_{Nd(t = sed)} values scatter around −11 to −9. The calculated Nd-T_DM residence ages vary between 1·8 and 2·0 Ga indicating contribution by a Palaeoproterozoic crustal component. The Th/Sc and La/Sc ratios of the Tolillar Formation are lower than those of the Tolar Chico Formation. Normalized REE (rare earth elements) patterns display a similar shape to PAAS (post-Archaean average Australian shale) but with higher abundances of HREEs. Eu/Eu* values range between 0·44 and 1·17, where the higher values reflect the abundance of plagioclase and feldspar-bearing volcanic lithoclasts. Average ε_{Nd(t = sed)} values are less negative at −5·1, and Nd-T_DM are lower at 1·6 Ga. This is consistent with characteristics of regional rocks of upper continental crust composition, which most probably represent the sources of the studied detritus. The rocks of the Diablo Formation have the lowest Th/Sc and La/Sc ratios, lower LREE abundances than the average continental crust and are slightly enriched in HREEs. Eu/Eu* values are between 0·63 and 1·17. The Nd isotopes (ε_{Nd(t = sed)} = −3 to −1; T_DM = 1·2 Ga) indicate that one source component was less fractionated than both the underlying Early Ordovician and the overlying Middle Ordovician units. Synsedimentary vulcanites in the Diablo Formation show the same isotopic composition. Our data indicate that the sedimentary detritus is generally composed of reworked crustal material, but that the Diablo Formation appears to contain ≈ 80% of a less fractionated component, derived from a contemporaneous continental volcanic arc. There are no data indicating an exotic detrital source or the accretion of an exotic block at this part of the Gondwana margin during the Ordovician.  相似文献   

The red bed controversy revisited: shape analysis of Colorado Plateau units suggests long magnetization times     

Myrl E. Beck  Jr.  Russell F. Burmester  Bernard A. Housen 《Tectonophysics》2003,362(1-4):335-344

Several Triassic and earliest Jurassic sedimentary units from the Colorado Plateau region have distributions of virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) that are highly elongate along the path of apparent polar wander (APW). This suggests that the remanent magnetizations measured in these units were acquired over an extended period of time, possibly approaching 35 m.y., and are not precisely coeval with the stratigraphic age of the rock. Comparison with other paleomagnetic studies shows that the observed elongation is not a general attribute of the age of the rock, nor is it related to paleolatitude. The rocks that yield elongate VGP distributions are dominantly red to brown mudstones, and it is possible that their remanence is dominated by a slowly acquired chemical remanent magnetization, as suggested by Larson et al. [J. Geophys. Res. 87 (1982) 1081] and other authors. However, several superficially similar units from the Colorado Plateau have nearly circular VGP distributions. The process by which remanence is acquired in clastic sedimentary rocks merits further study.  相似文献   

Phytolith analysis from the archaeological site of Kush, Ras al-Khaimah, United Arab Emirates   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sachiko Ishida  Adrian G. Parker  Derek Kennet  Martin J. Hodson   《Quaternary Research》2003,59(3):310-321

Despite the wealth of archaeological sites and excellent conditions for preservation, few phytolith investigations have been undertaken from the Arabian Gulf region. The results from the Sasanian and Islamic archaeological tell of Kush, Ras al-Khaimah, United Arab Emirates, are presented. Kush is situated just inside the Gulf on an important trade route. The occupation sequence dates from the 4^th century A.D. until the 13^th century A.D., recording the development of the site in the Sasanian period, followed by the arrival of Islam in the 7^th century A.D. and the final abandonment of the site in the late 13^th century when the nearby site of al-Mataf (Julfar) began to develop closer to the present day coastline. All the samples analyzed contained abundant phytoliths (short cells, elongated cells, and groups of elongated cells) of various types. They included date palm (Phoenix dactylifera), papillae (possibly from barley (Hordeum)), and hair cells possibly from species of canary grass (Phalaris spp.). Some researchers have suggested that groups of elongated cells may indicate the presence of irrigation in semiarid environments. The present results for this class of phytoliths appeared to imply that intensive irrigation was unlikely to have taken place around Kush.  相似文献