共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 640 毫秒
1.
P. L. S. Rao U. C. Mohanty P. V. S. Raju M. A. Arain 《Journal of Earth System Science》2004,113(3):281-298
The study delineates the vorticity and angular momentum balances of Asian summer monsoon during the evolution and established
phases. It also elucidates the differences between these balances in the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National
Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (NCMRWF)
analysis fields. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for a 40 year period (1958-97) and the NCMRWF analysis for a three year (1994-96)
period are made use of for the purpose. The time mean summer monsoon circulation is bifurcated into stable mean and transient
eddy components and the mean component is elucidated.
The generation of vorticity due to stretching of isobars balances most of the vorticity transported out of the monsoon domain
during the evolution period. However, during the established period, the transportation by the relative and planetary vorticity
components exceeds the generation due to stretching. The effective balancing mechanism is provided by vorticity generation
due to sub-grid scale processes. The flux convergence of omega and relative momenta over the monsoon domain is effectively
balanced by pressure torque during the evolution and established phases. Nevertheless, the balance is stronger during the
established period due to the increase in the strength of circulation.
Both the NCMRWF and NCEP fields indicate the mean features related to vorticity and angular momentum budgets realistically.
Apart from the oceanic bias (strong circulation over oceans rather than continents), the summer monsoon circulation indicated
by the NCEP is feeble compared to NCMRWF. The significant terms in the large-scale budgets of vorticity and angular momentum
enunciate this aspect 相似文献
2.
3.
Marina Aloysius S Sijikumar S S Prijith Mannil Mohan K Parameswaran 《Journal of Earth System Science》2011,120(2):269-279
The circulation dynamics of an event marked by the formation of an aerosol cluster off the coast of Maharashtra on April 22,
2006, its southward migration along the Indian west coast with a mean speed of ~200 km/day and its final dissipation after
reaching the end of the peninsula by April 28, 2006 as revealed by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) against
the pre-monsoon conditions of April 2006 are examined in this study. The maximum aerosol concentration in the cluster was
found getting confined to lower and lower altitudes during its southward movement. The NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental
Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis wind field indicates that the atmospheric circulation, especially
the horizontal wind convergence is the major factor that guides the formation and the dynamics of the cluster. Fine mode fraction
from MODIS suggests that the cluster mainly consists of coarse dust particles. The regional climate model, RegCM3 with an
efficient dust generation module simulates the formation and movement of the cluster appreciably well. The simulations which
also exhibit the altitudinally descending nature of the cluster during its southward movement confirm the mechanism which
governs the cluster dynamics suggested based on MODIS and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. 相似文献
4.
利用美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的CCSM2全球气候系统模式以及重建的古地理资料研究了晚白垩世(80Ma)东亚的古气候特征。模拟结果表明:80Ma时期东亚地区大范围盛行的风向和气压系统随季节有显著变化,由此可以推断东亚地区当时是存在季风环流的。与现代气候比较,白垩纪时期大陆上空的大气环流系统经向特征更明显,这种特征可能与当时欧亚大陆东西向跨度较小有关。此外,在当时偏暖的背景下,东亚冬季风和夏季风呈现出一致的变化特征,即冬季风和夏季风都比现代强。年平均降水的分布型和现代的情况比较相似,降水最大值出现在10°S～10°N的赤道辐合带中,与西太平洋相邻的大陆东岸降水也较多,其中心超过1200mm,而在中纬度的内陆地区降水则稀少。虽然与现代情况相似,80Ma在30°N附近的西太平洋上也为多雨带,然而在东亚陆地上没有多雨带,这说明了青藏高原隆升在现代东亚夏季梅雨形成中的重要性。此外,模拟的80Ma时期东亚地区气候要比现代温暖,相同纬度的表面气温要高2℃以上,模拟的温度与地质证据估计的温度比较接近。 相似文献
5.
The rapid intensification of Hurricane Charley (2004) near landfall is studied using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State
University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its adjoint system for both vortex
initialization and forecasts. A significant improvement in both track and intensity forecasts is achieved after an ill-defined
storm vortex, derived from large-scale analysis, in the initial condition is replaced by the vortex generated by a four-dimensional
data variational (4D-Var) hurricane initialization scheme. Results from numerical experiments suggest that both the inclusion
of the upper-level trough and the use of high horizontal resolution (6 km) are important for numerical simulations to capture
the observed rapid intensification as well as the size reduction during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Charley. The
approach of the upper-level trough significantly enhanced the upper-level divergence and vertical motion within simulated
hurricanes. Small-scale features that are not resolvable at 18 km resolution are important to the rapid intensification and
shrinking of Hurricane Charley (2004). Numerical results from this study further confirm that the theoretical relationship
between the intensification and shrinking of tropical cyclones based on the angular momentum conservation and the cyclostrophic
approximation can be applied to the azimuthal mean flows. 相似文献
6.
In this article, the interannual variability of certain dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of various sectors in the
Asian summer monsoon domain was examined during the onset phase over the south Indian peninsula (Kerala Coast). Daily average
(0000 and 1200 UTC) reanalysis data sets of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric
Research (NCEP/NCAR) for the period 1948–1999 were used. Based on 52 years onset date of the Indian summer monsoon, we categorized
the pre-onset, onset, and post-onset periods (each an average of 5 days) to investigate the interannual variability of significant
budget terms over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and the Indian peninsula. A higher difference was noticed in low-level kinetic
energy (850 hPa) and the vertically integrated generation of kinetic energy over the Arabian Sea from the pre-onset, onset,
and post-onset periods. Also, significant changes were noticed in the net tropospheric moisture and diabatic heating over
the Arabian Sea and Indian peninsula from the pre-onset to the post-onset period. It appears that attaining the magnitude
of 40 m2 s−2 and then a sharp rise in kinetic energy at 850 hPa is an appropriate time to declare the onset of the summer monsoon over
India. In addition to a sufficient level of net tropospheric moisture (40 mm), a minimum strength of low-level flow is needed
to trigger convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. An attempt was also made to develop a location-specific
prediction of onset dates of the summer monsoon over India based on energetics and basic meteorological parameters using multivariate
statistical techniques. The regression technique was developed with the data of May and June for 42 years (1948–1989) and
validated with 10 years NCEP reanalysis from 1990 to 1999. It was found that the predicted onset dates from the regression
model are fairly in agreement with the observed onset dates obtained from the Indian Meteorology Department. 相似文献
7.
An extreme heat wave hit Egypt in summer 2015. Abnormal hot weather conditions existed over Egypt for the entire summer season. The present paper investigates the relationship between the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over Africa and a scorching heat wave that existed over Egypt in summer 2015. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data of mean surface air temperature for the domain of Egypt for the summer season from 1948 to 2015 were used in this study. In addition, data of the daily maximum and daily minimum temperature used for the summer season of the year 2015 were also used. Time cross-section analysis of the daily operational data of geopotential height at level 500 hPa over Egypt from 1 June to 31 August 2015 was done. Moreover, the African ITCZ, both the western and the eastern ITCZ, data for summer of 2015 were used for the said period. The time series, time cross-section, anomaly, and correlation coefficient techniques were used to analyze the datasets. The results revealed that a new climate change record of heat wave over Egypt existed in summer 2015. Moreover, there is an outstanding significant positive correlation between the abrupt shift of African ITCZ position and heat wave occurrence over Egypt in summer 2015. In particular, the southerly movement of the eastern African ITCZ controls the weather over Egypt and led to the extreme heat wave in summer 2015. 相似文献
8.
美国国家大气研究中心（Nat ionalCenterforAtmosphericResearch，NCAR）是由美国国家科学基金委员会（Nat ionalScienceFoundat ion，NSF）提供主要资助的国家实验室，主要从事大气科学及相关领域研究，其直属管理机构为美国大学大气研究联盟（Universi tyCorporationforAtmospheric Research，UCAR）。作为由NSF提供主要资助的研究中心，NCAR成立40多年来不仅对美国相应政府机构形成科学议案起着重要作用，同时也在基础科学研究上取得了重要的成就，它们分布在相应的分机构中。除介绍NCAR的成立背景、重组前后的机构分布外，重点介绍了NCAR现有机构设置、任务和将来研究方向。 相似文献
9.
In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm. 相似文献
10.
S. K. Roy Bhowmik 《Journal of Earth System Science》2003,112(4):499-519
At the India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi, a 12-level limited area model with 100 km horizontal resolution has
been in use for weather forecasting. The present study uses this model together with a higher horizontal resolution (50 km)
and vertical resolution (16-levels) model to examine the impact of increased resolution to simulate mesoscale features of
rainfall during monsoon disturbances. The model was run for 22 days in the month of August 1997 and one week in September
1997 during three monsoon depressions and one cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. The model results are compared with observations.
The study shows that the model can capture mesoscale convective organization associated with monsoon depression. 相似文献
11.
Meteorological fields variability over the Indian seas in pre and summer monsoon months during extreme monsoon seasons 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
U. C. Mohanty R. Bhatla P. V. S. Raju O. P. Madan A. Sarkar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2002,111(3):365-378
In this study, the possible linkage between summer monsoon rainfall over India and surface meteorological fields (basic fields
and heat budget components) over monsoon region (30‡E-120‡E, 30‡S30‡N) during the pre-monsoon month of May and summer monsoon
season (June to September) are examined. For this purpose, monthly surface meteorological fields anomaly are analyzed for
42 years (1958-1999) using reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for
Atmospheric Research). The statistical significance of the anomaly (difference) between the surplus and deficient monsoon
years in the surface meteorological fields are also examined by Student’s t-test at 95% confidence level.
Significant negative anomalies of mean sea level pressure are observed over India, Arabian Sea and Arabian Peninsular in the
pre-monsoon month of May and monsoon season. Significant positive anomalies in the zonal and meridional wind (at 2 m) in the
month of May are observed in the west Arabian Sea off Somali coast and for monsoon season it is in the central Arabian Sea
that extends up to Somalia. Significant positive anomalies of the surface temperature and air temperature (at 2 m) in the
month of May are observed over north India and adjoining Pakistan and Afghanistan region. During monsoon season this region
is replaced by significant negative anomalies. In the month of May, significant positive anomalies of cloud amount are observed
over Somali coast, north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal and Bangladesh. During monsoon season, cloud amount shows
positive anomalies over NW India and north Arabian Sea.
There is overall reduction in the incoming shortwave radiation flux during surplus monsoon years. A higher magnitude of latent
heat flux is also found in surplus monsoon years for the month of May as well as the monsoon season. The significant positive
anomaly of latent heat flux in May, observed over southwest Arabian Sea, may be considered as an advance indicator of the
possible behavior of the subsequent monsoon season. The distribution of net heat flux is predominantly negative over eastern
Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean. Anomaly between the two extreme monsoon years in post 1980 (i.e., 1988 and 1987)
shows that shortwave flux, latent heat flux and net heat flux indicate reversal in sign, particularly in south Indian Ocean.
Variations of the heat budget components over four smaller sectors of Indian seas, namely Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and west
Indian Ocean and east Indian Ocean show that a small sector of Arabian Sea is most dominant during May and other sectors showing
reversal in sign of latent heat flux during monsoon season. 相似文献
12.
Bingdi Wang Qingquan Li Xinyong Shen Lili Dong Fang Wang Tao Wang Xinzhong Liang 《地球科学进展》2020,35(3):319-330
Based on the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Medium-Term Weather Forecast Center from 1979 to 2016 and the ERSSTv4 sea surface temperature data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the regional climate model CWRF was used to simulate the climate characteristics in East Asia. The results show that the CWRF model can well reproduce the average characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation, including the location and intensity of the low-level continental cold high pressure and variation characteristics of wind field in high and low levels. The occurrence area and frequency of the north wind in the simulation and the reanalysis data were further calculated and compared. It is shown that they are basically consistent. The distribution of air temperature and precipitation over China are well represented by the model. The water vapor transport is also in good agreement with the reanalysis data. The water vapor from the Bay of Bengal plays a vital role in the precipitation over South China. The simulation results of apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink show that the model can well simulate the thermal difference between the East Asian continent and the adjacent sea area. The analysis results indicate that CWRF model has the ability to simulate the main characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon. 相似文献
13.
The impact of different land-surface parameterisation schemes for the simulation of monsoon circulation during a normal monsoon
year over India has been analysed. For this purpose, three land-surface parameterisation schemes, the NoaH, the Multi-layer
soil model and the Pleim-Xiu were tested using the latest version of the regional model (MM5) of the Pennsylvania State University
(PSU)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) over the Indian summer monsoon region. With respect to different land-surface
parameterisation schemes, latent and sensible heat fluxes and rainfall were estimated over the Indian region. The sensitivity
of some monsoon features, such as Somali jet, tropical easterly jet and mean sea level pressure, is discussed. Although some
features of the Indian summer monsoon, such as wind and mean sea level pressure, were fairly well-simulated by all three schemes,
many differences were seen in the simulation of the typical characteristics of the Indian summer monsoon. It was noticed from
the results that the features of the Indian summer monsoon, such as strength of the low-level westerly jet, the cross-equatorial
flow and the tropical easterly jet were better simulated by NoaH compared with verification analysis than other land-surface
schemes. It was also observed that the distribution of precipitation over India during the peak period of monsoon (July) was
better represented with the use of the NoaH scheme than by other schemes.
相似文献
| U. C. MohantyEmail: |
14.
The Indian subcontinent is characterized by complex topography and heterogeneous land use-land cover. The Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are spread across the northern part of the continent. Due to its highly variable topography, understanding of the prevailing synoptic weather systems is complex over the region. The present study analyzes the energetics of Indian winter monsoon (IWM) over the Indian subcontinent using outputs of mesoscale model (MM5) forced with National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR), US, initial and boundary conditions. MM5 modeling framework, designed to simulate or predict mesoscale atmospheric circulations, is having a limited-area, non-hydrostatic and terrain following 12 sigma levels. The IWM energetics is studied using MM5 model outputs. Prior to this model’s validity and deviation from the corresponding observations (NCEP/NCAR) is assessed. The model’s overestimation/underestimation of wind, temperature and specific humidity at upper troposphere proves that the model has difficulty in picking up corresponding fields at all the model grid points because of terrain complexity over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. Hence, the model fields deviate from the corresponding observations. However, model results match well with the winter global energy budget calculated using reanalysis dataset by Peixoto and Oort (1992). It suggests MM5 model’s fitness in simulating large scale synoptic weather systems. And, thus the model outputs are used for calculation of energetics associated with IWM. It is observed that beyond \(15^{{\circ }}\hbox {N}\) lower as well as upper level convergence of diabatic heating, which represents continental cooling and sinking of heat from atmosphere to land mass (i.e., surface is cooler than surrounding atmosphere) dominates. The diabatic heating divergence (cooling of continents) is found over ocean/sea and whole of the China region, Tibetan and central Himalayas (because of excess condensation than evaporation). The adiabatic generation of kinetic energy depends on the cross isobaric flow (north to south in winter, i.e., the present study shows strong circulation during IWM). It is found that wind divergence of model concludes lower level convergence over study region (i.e., strong winter circulation in the model fields). 相似文献
15.
青海省冬季气温变化成因及其预测方法探讨 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用青海省1961-2012年冬季气温观测资料、美国环境预报中心(NCEP)和国家大气研究中心(NCAR)月平均高度场再分析资料、国家气候中心和美国国家海洋局和大气管理局提供的126项环流指数, 探讨青海冬季气温变化特征及成因. 结果表明: 1961-2012年青海冬季气温呈显著上升趋势并具明显的年代际变化特征, 于1986年出现由冷向暖的明显转折; 西伯利亚高压、东亚冬季风是影响青海冬季气温的主要系统. 当冬季北半球500 hPa高度场出现欧亚(EU)遥相关型时, 青海冬季易于偏冷, 同时发现大西洋欧洲区极涡强度和赤道太平洋海域海温与东亚冬季风的强弱有密切关系. 采用主成分回归集成方法初步建立青海冬季气温预测模型, 经历史回报检验其距平符号一致率为87%, 具备一定预报技巧和能力. 相似文献
16.
In this study, the simulation of an extreme weather event like heavy rainfall over Mumbai (India) on July 26, 2005 has been
attempted with different horizontal resolutions using the Advanced Research Weather Research Forecast model version 2.0.1
developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA. The study uses the Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ) and the
Grell–Devenyi ensemble (GDE) cumulus parameterization schemes in single and nested domain configurations. The model performance
was evaluated by examining the different predicted parameters like upper and lower level circulations, moisture, temperature,
and rainfall. The large-scale circulation features, moisture, and temperature were compared with the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction analyses. The rainfall prediction was assessed quantitatively by comparing rainfall from the Tropical
Rainfall Measuring Mission products and the observed station values reported in the Indian Daily Weather Reports from India
Meteorological Department (IMD). The quantitative validation of the simulated rainfall was done by calculating the categorical
skill scores like frequency bias, threat scores (TS), and equitable threat scores (ETS). It is found that in all simulations,
both in single and nested domains, the GDE scheme has outperformed the BMJ scheme for the simulation of rainfall for this
specific event. 相似文献
17.
A methodology for diagnosis of free and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) is reviewed and illustrated for Kelvin and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves. The method is based on prefiltering of the geopotential and horizontal wind, using three-dimensional normal mode functions of the adiabatic linearized equations of a resting atmosphere, followed by space–time power and cross-spectral analysis applied to the normal-mode-filtered fields and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) to identify spectral regions of coherence. The methodology is applied to geopotential and horizontal wind fields produced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis and OLR data produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The same type of data simulated by two climate models that participated in the fifth phase of the climate model intercomparison project are also used. Overall, simulation of free and CCEWs was achieved by the models with moderate success. Kelvin and MRG waves were identified in the space–time spectral domains, using both observationally based and climate model datasets. Other nonequatorial waves, classified as tropical depression and extratropical storm track activity, along with the Madden–Julian oscillation were also observed. However, significant deviations were also evident in the models, which may help identification of deficiencies in the models’ simulation schemes for some physical processes. Therefore, this diagnosis method should be a useful procedure for climate model validation and model benchmarking. 相似文献
18.
Much progress has been made in the area of tropical cyclone prediction using high-resolution mesoscale models based on community models developed at National Centers for Environmental Predication (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). While most of these model research and development activities are focused on predicting hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific domains, there has been much interest in using these models for tropical cyclone prediction in the North Indian Ocean region, particularly for Bay of Bengal storms that are known historically causing severe damage to life and property. In this study, the advanced operational hurricane modeling system developed at NCEP, known as the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, is used to simulate two recent Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones??Nargis of November 2007 and Sidr of April 2008. The advanced NCEP operational vortex initialization procedure is adapted for simulating these Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones. Two additional regional models, the NCAR Advanced Research WRF and NCAR/Penn State University Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) are also used in simulating these storms. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over other models in predicting the Bay of Bengal cyclones. These results also suggest the need for a sophisticated vortex initialization procedure in conjunction with a model designed exclusively for tropical cyclone prediction for operational considerations. 相似文献
19.
20.
Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging
dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense
rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The
inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of
the summer monsoon such as north-south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall
between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location
of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north-east India, along the foothills of Himalayas
and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products
(CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the gird resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western
Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely
discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations
to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is
able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons
(2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP
models. 相似文献