基于5分钟雷达资料降水估测模型的比较          下载免费PDF全文

LIU Yong-He  ZHANG Wan-Chang  SHAO Yue-Hong  ZHANG Jing-Ying 《大气和海洋科学快报》2009,2(6):327-332

For the Z-R relationship in radar-based rainfall estimation, the distribution of corresponding R values for a given Z value （or the corresponding Z value for a given R value） may be highly skewed. However, the traditional power-law model is physically deduced and fitted under the normal-distribution presumption of radar wave echoes associated with a rain rate value, and it may not be very appropriate. Considering this problem, the authors devised several generalized linear models with different forms and distribution presumptions to represent the Z-R relationship. Radar-reflectivity scans observed by a CINRAD/SC Doppler radar and 5-minute rainfall accumulation recorded by 10 ground gauges were used to fit these models. All data used in this study were collected during some large rainfalls of the period from 2005 to 2007. The radar and all gauges were installed in the catchment of the Yishu River, a branch of the Huaihe River in China. Three models based on normal distribution and a dBZ presumption of gamma distribution were fitted using maximum-likelihood techniques, which were resolved by genetic algorithms. Comparisons of estimated maximized likelihoods based on assumptions of gamma and normal distribution showed that all generalized linear models （GLMs） of presumed gamma distribution were better fitted than GLMs based on normal distribution. In a comparison of maximum-likelihood, the differences between these three models were small. Three error statistics were used to assess the agreement between radar estimated rainfall and gauge rainfall： relative bias （B）, root mean square error （RMSE）, and correlation coefficient （r）. The results showed that no one model was excellent in all criteria. On the whole, the GLM-based models gave smaller relative bias than the traditional power-law model. It is suggested that validations conducted in many previous works should have been made against a specific criterion but overlooked others.  相似文献   

不同分辨率BCC_AGCM模式对东亚区域垂直云量的模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙国荣  李昀英  寇雄伟  方乐锌  高翠翠 《气候与环境研究》2016,21(2):175-187

基于ISCCP(International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project)和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)资料分析了BCC_AGCM2.1(Beijing Climate Center_Atmospheric General Circulation Model 2.1)和BCC_AGCM2.2模拟的云在东亚的垂直分布特点,并探讨了误差来源。两个模式大体上模拟出了总云量的分布形势,较好地模拟出了垂直方向上云量大值带随地形的变化特点,但模拟的总云量偏少。AGCM2.2模拟的云量整体上小于AGCM2.1,除复杂地形外AGCM2.2没有体现出高分辨率的优势。模式对中国东部环流场的模拟效果差导致模拟的云量偏少,尤其是AGCM2.2。模拟的对流层高层相对湿度明显偏大导致高层云量偏大。模式在近海面模拟的相对湿度偏小,四川盆地及周围地区冷季模拟的水汽含量偏少,因而模拟的云量偏少。模式云量对相对湿度的响应能力较好,模拟出了云量对垂直速度和稳定度的响应,但地区差异不明显。模式的云参数化方案中云与相对湿度的关系系数需要调整,应更利于云的生成。  相似文献   

基于CMIP5模拟的中国区域陆气耦合强度评估及未来情景预估     

曾毓金  谢正辉 《气候与环境研究》2015,20(3):337-346

基于第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)11个模式历史情景的模拟结果计算得到了中国区域夏季的陆气耦合强度并进行集合平均,结果表明,位于半干旱区的华北和内蒙古地区陆气耦合强度相对较强,西部干旱区的陆气耦合强度相对较弱,位于湿润区的中国东北地区东部、长江中下游和西南地区陆气耦合强度最弱。利用上述模式集合平均结果与由NCEP再分析资料和欧洲中心的中期气象预报40年再分析资料(ERA40)计算得到的陆气耦合强度相比较,结果显示这些模式的集合平均与再分析资料NCEP和ERA40的计算结果有较好的一致性。利用历史情景模拟和不同的典型排放路径(RCP),即低排放情景RCP2.6、中排放情景RCP4.5和高排放情景RCP8.5下的模拟结果预估陆气耦合强度未来变化。结果显示:与历史情景相比较,位于湿润区的中国南方地区蒸散发的主要控制因子是温度,在3种排放情景下随着温度上升引起蒸散发增加所导致陆气耦合强度升高;位于青藏高原以及半干旱区的内蒙古大部分地区蒸散发在未来的年际变化幅度减弱导致陆气耦合指数降低;位于西北干旱区陆气耦合强度在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景上升,然而在RCP8.5情景下陆气耦合强度下降,其原因是在高排放情景下,水汽平流输送明显增强,局地蒸散发异常对空气湿度变化的贡献减弱,导致了陆气耦合强度降低。未来预估结果在中国南方可信度相对较高,从全国来看,在RCP4.5情景下可信度相对较高。  相似文献   

模糊马尔可夫预测法在空气质量评价中的应用     

方红 《辽宁气象》2008,24(1):60-62

将模糊综合评价及马尔可夫链同时运用到空气质量的评价中,可克服大气环境系统所固有的模糊性及随机性。通过1994—1998年芜湖市大气环境监测数据计算表明：不仅预测结果准确,而且由于应用了模糊数学方法,使得结果较为可信,且整个过程计算简单,是一种较适合的方法。  相似文献   

开滦苯加氢精制工程环境风险评价     

王绪鑫  ;徐新阳  ;张宇晨 《辽宁气象》2008,24(1):67-71

以某苯加氢精制工程为例,探讨了焦化行业环境风险评价方法;利用该项目所在地近3 a地面常规气象观测资料,分析了当地的污染气象特征;采用风险识别、源项分析、后果计算、风险评价等环境风险评价技术方法,筛选出主要风险因子并进行风险预测,采用多烟团模式并考虑气象因素进行风险计算。结果表明：污染事故发生后,苯类物质的地面浓度最大值为3 214 mg/m^3,位于距离事故发生源WNW方向约50 m处超标1 339倍,由此可知近距离污染严重;高浓度污染物主要集中在污染源附近,随着距离的延长,污染物浓度不断向下风向扩散,超标范围在6 km内。利用简化分析法,定量给出此项工程的最大可信事故风险值为7.6×10^-6/a,小于化工行业风险值8.33×10^-5/a,此工程风险值水平与同行业比较在可接受的范围内。  相似文献   

广西2007年气候特点及其影响评价   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

黄雪松  李艳兰 《气象研究与应用》2008,29(1):23-28

2007年,广西全区平均气温比常年偏高、平均降水量比常年偏少、平均日照时数比常年偏多。年内出现近十年少见的春季"倒春寒"以及暴雨洪涝、干旱、高温天气、热带气旋、强对流天气等天气气候事件。除干旱较常年偏重、高温天气较常年偏多外,其它灾害属正常到偏轻年份。气候对农业、旅游业的影响属正常稍好年景,对人体健康、交通运输、盐业的影响属偏好年景,对水电的影响属偏差年景。  相似文献   

构建一个经济-气候新模型评价气候变化对粮食产量的影响   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

丑洁明  叶笃正 《气候与环境研究》2006,11(3):347-353

将气候变化研究和农业经济研究相结合,构建了一个经济-气候新模型,用来评价全球气候变化对粮食产量影响的问题。提出在经济模型C-D生产函数中添加气候变化因子,建立一个新的评价模型,作为连接气候变化因素和经济变化因素的桥梁,并对该模型的性能及合理性进行了初步的模拟和验证。  相似文献   

应用GeoStar建立数字佛像三维模型的研究     

朱宜萱  黎景良  宁晓刚  李华玮 《测绘信息与工程》2004,29(4):7-9

通过使用GeoStar系列软件进行数字三维佛像建模 ,进一步实现佛像的动态漫游 ,从而得出了一种基于等值线图建立数字表面模型并进行空间漫游的可行技术 ;通过研究卧佛的历史资料 ,对数字佛像模型进行修补 ,探讨了实现佛像表面三维可视化复原的方法  相似文献   

Dynamical modelling of the elliptical galaxy NGC 2974     

Zhenglu Jiang 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2009,103(1):31-47

In this paper we analyse the relations between a previously described oblate Jaffe model for an ellipsoidal galaxy and the observed quantities for NGC 2974, and obtain the length and velocity scales for a relevant elliptical galaxy model. We then derive the finite total mass of the model from these scales, and finally find a good fit of an isotropic oblate Jaffe model by using the Gauss-Hermite fit parameters and the observed ellipticity of the galaxy NGC 2974. The model is also used to predict the total luminous mass of NGC 2974, assuming that the influence of dark matter in this galaxy on the image, ellipticity and Gauss-Hermite fit parameters of this galaxy is negligible within the central region, of radius 0.5R _e.  相似文献   

Paleomagnetic and rock magnetic results from lower crustal rocks of IODP Site U1309: Implication for thermal and accretion history of the Atlantis Massif     

Xixi Zhao  Masako Tominaga   《Tectonophysics》2009,474(3-4):435-448

Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expeditions 304/305 recovered a total of 1.4 km sequence of lower crustal gabbroic and minor ultramafic rocks from the Atlantis Massif oceanic core complex on the western flank of the Mid Atlantic Ridge (MAR) at 30°N. We conducted an integrated paleomagnetic and rock magnetic study on this sequence to help address the interplay between magmatism and detachment faulting. Detailed thermal and alternating-field demagnetization results demonstrate that stable components of magnetization of mainly reversed polarity with unblocking temperatures below the Curie temperature of magnetite are retained in gabbroic rocks at IODP Site U1309. Several samples also contain multicomponent remanences of both normal and reversed polarities that were acquired over sharply defined blocking temperature intervals, providing evidence for localized reheating of some intervals during both normal and reversed polarity periods. Results from a series of rock magnetic measurements corroborate the demagnetization behavior and show that titanomagnetites are the main magnetic carrier rocks recovered at Site U1309D. The overall magnetic inclination of Hole U1309D is -35°, implying significant (up to ~ 50° counterclockwise, viewed to the north) rotation of the footwall around a horizontal axis parallel to the rift axis (010°) may have occurred. The tectonic rotations inferred by the paleomagnetic data suggest that the original fault orientation dipped relative steeply toward the spreading axis and subsequently rotated to a shallower angle. Coupled with the newly published U–Pb zircon ages for Hole U1309D rocks [Grimes, C.B., John, B.E., Wooden, J.L., 2008. Protracted construction of gabbroic crust at a slow-spreading ridge: Constraints from ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U zircon ages from Atlantis Massif and IODP Hole 1309D, (30°N, MAR). Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 9, Q08012. doi:1029/2008GC002063], the new paleomagnetic data provide temporal and thermal constraints on the accretion history of the Atlantis Massif.  相似文献