Application of functional data analysis to investigate seasonal progression with interannual variability in plankton abundance in the Bay of Fundy,Canada     

Takayoshi Ikeda  Michael Dowd  Jennifer L. Martin 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008

The statistical technique of functional data analysis (FDA) is applied to a time series analysis of plankton monitoring data. The analysis is focused on revealing patterns in the seasonal cycle to assess interannual variability of several different taxonomic groups of plankton. Cell concentrations of diatom, dinoflagellate and zooplankton abundances from the Bay of Fundy, Canada provide the observations for analysis. FDA was performed on the log-transformed abundance data as a new approach for treating such types of sparse and noisy data. Differences in the seasonal progression were seen, with peak numbers, timings and abundance levels varying for the three groups as determined by curve registration and higher order derivatives using the objectively fit FDA curves. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling was used to capture seasonal variation among years. These results were further assessed in terms of dominant species and the relationships between groups for different seasons and years. It is anticipated that the easy to use, general and flexible technique of FDA could be applied to a wide variety of marine ecological data that are characterized by missing values and non-Gaussian distributions.  相似文献   

Long-term benthic responses to sustained disturbance by aggregate extraction in an area off the east coast of the United Kingdom     

Christopher R.S. Barrio Froján  Siân E. BoydKeith M. Cooper  Jacqueline D. EggletonSuzanne Ware 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008

The temporal variability of benthic assemblages inhabiting offshore gravel deposits in the North Sea is poorly known, as purpose-collected long-term data sets have until recently been non-existent. It has therefore proved difficult to understand the stability and resilience of these benthic ecosystems after disturbance caused by the extraction of aggregates on an industrial scale. The present investigation examines an 8-year time series of data collected in and around an active commercial aggregate extraction site off the east coast of the United Kingdom. Both physical and biological data sets suggest a distinct yet localised effect after sustained gravel extraction, with impacted sediments generally appearing more physically homogeneous and faunistically impoverished than undisturbed sediments. Although inter-annual variability of selected assemblage metrics was reduced in disturbed sediments, differences in some assemblage metrics became significant between years. Despite such observations, significant impacts to the benthos in any given year were not sustained for long. However, the magnitude of impact in almost every year would be enough to merit remedial intervention based on an existing model of measuring acceptable levels of disturbance as a result of organic enrichment. Caution must be exercised in making any such recommendations, especially as there are presently no models specifically designed to assess the degree of acceptable disturbance from aggregate extraction. This study not only highlights the importance of and need for long-term data sets in order to better understand the difference between natural and human-induced variability in benthic assemblages, but also emphasises the need to develop more relevant monitoring tools to better manage the activities of the marine aggregate extraction industry.  相似文献   

Volume transport of the Soya Warm Current revealed by bottom-mounted ADCP and ocean-radar measurement   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Yasushi Fukamachi  Iori Tanaka  Kay I. Ohshima  Naoto Ebuchi  Genta Mizuta  Hideo Yoshida  Shiro Takayanagi  Masaaki Wakatsuchi 《Journal of Oceanography》2008,64(3):385-392

The vertical structure of the Soya Warm Current (SWC) was observed by a bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) in the region of the SWC axis near the Soya Strait during a 1-year period from May 2004. The ADCP data revealed a marked seasonal variability in the vertical structure, with positive (negative) vertical shear in summer and fall (winter and spring). The volume transport of the SWC is estimated on the basis of both the vertical structure observed by the ADCP and horizontal structure observed by the ocean radars near the strait. The transport estimates have a minimum in winter and a maximum in fall, with the yearly-averaged values in the range of 0.94–1.04 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹). These lie within a reasonable range in comparison to those through other straits in the Japan Sea.  相似文献   

Short-term variability of suspended sediment and phytoplankton in Tampa Bay,Florida: Observations from a coastal oceanographic tower and ocean color satellites     

Zhiqiang Chen  Chuanmin HuFrank E. Muller-Karger  Mark E. Luther 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

We examined short-term phytoplankton and sediment dynamics in Tampa Bay with data collected between 8 December 2004 and 17 January 2005 from optical, oceanographic, and meteorological sensors mounted on a coastal oceanographic tower and from satellite remote sensing. Baseline phytoplankton (chlorophyll-a, Chl) and sediment concentrations (particle backscattering coefficient at 532 nm, bbp(532)) were of the order of 3.7 mg m⁻³ and 0.07 m⁻¹, respectively, during the study period. Both showed large fluctuations dominated by semidiurnal and diurnal frequencies associated with tidal forcing. Three strong wind events (hourly averaged wind speed >8.0 m s⁻¹) generated critical bottom shear stress of >0.2 Pa and suspended bottom sediments that were clearly observed in concurrent MODIS satellite imagery. In addition, strong tidal current or swells could also suspend sediments in the lower Bay. Sediments remained suspended in the water column for 2–3 days after the wind events. Moderate Chl increases were observed after sediment resuspension with a lag time of ˜1–2 days, probably due to release of bottom nutrients and optimal light conditions associated with sediment resuspension and settling. Two large increases in Chl with one Chl > 12.0 mg m⁻³ over ˜2 days, were observed at neap tides. For the study site and period, because of the high temporal variability in phytoplankton and sediment concentrations, a monthly snapshot can be different by −50% to 200% from the monthly “mean” chlorophyll and sediment conditions. The combination of high-frequency observations from automated sensors and synoptic satellite imagery, when available, is an excellent complement to limited field surveys to study and monitor water quality parameters in estuarine environments.  相似文献   

Forecasting seasonal to multi-year shoreline change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M.A. Davidson  R.P. Lewis  I.L. Turner 《Coastal Engineering》2010

This contribution details a simple empirical model for forecasting shoreline positions at seasonal to interannual time-scales. The one-dimensional (1-D) model is a simplification of a 2-D behavioural-template model proposed by Davidson and Turner (2009). The new model is calibrated and tested using five-years of weekly video-derived shoreline data from the Gold Coast, Australia. The modelling approach first utilises a least-squares methodology to calibrate the empirical model coefficients using the first half of the dataset of observed shoreline movement in response to known forcing by waves. The model is then verified by comparison of hindcast shoreline positions to the second half of the observed shoreline dataset. One thousand synthetic time-series of wave height and period are generated that encapsulate the statistical characteristics of the modelled wave field, retaining the observed seasonal variability and sequencing characteristics. The calibrated model is used in conjunction with the simulated wave time-series to perform Monte Carlo forecasting of the resulting shoreline positions. The ensemble-mean of the 1000 individual five-year shoreline simulations is compared to the unseen shoreline time-series. A simple linear trend forecast of the shoreline position was used as a baseline for assessing the performance of the model. The model performance relative to this baseline prediction was quantified by several objective methods, including cross-correlation (r), root mean square (RMS) error analysis and Brier Skill tests. Importantly, these tests involved no prior knowledge of either the wave forcing or shoreline response. The new forecast model was found to significantly improve shoreline predictions relative to the simple linear trend model, capturing well both the trend and seasonal shoreline variabilities observed at this site. Brier Skill Scores (BSS) indicate that the model forecasts based on unseen data were rated as ‘excellent’ (BSS = 0.83), and root mean square errors were less than 7 m (≈ 14% of the observed variability). The standard deviations of the 1000 individual simulations from ensemble-averaged ‘mean’ forecast were found to provide a useful means of predicting the higher-frequency (individual storm) shoreline variability, with 98% of the observed shoreline data falling within two standard deviations of the forecast position.  相似文献   

海州湾表层沉积物粒度的空间变异特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘付程  张存勇  彭俊 《海洋科学》2010,34(7):54-58

在海州湾海域采集了表层沉积物60个,经实验室分析获得了各采样点不同粒级组分的质量分数,在此基础上运用地统计学方法分析了砂、粉砂和黏粒三组分的空间变异特征,并利用Kriging插值方法绘制了相应的沉积物分布图。结果表明,海州湾表层沉积物中砂和黏粒组分均具有较强的空间自相关性,其空间自相关距离分别达到15 km和28 km,而粉砂则具有中等的空间自相关性,自相关距离在12 km左右;在大于9 km的尺度上,3种粒级沉积物的空间变异性表现出明显的各向异性特征。制图结果表明,研究海域沉积物的总体组成状况是北部偏砂、南部偏黏、中部以粉沙为主。研究结果对连云港航道疏浚、整治及近海水产养殖规划等工作具有一定指导意义。  相似文献   

Variability of surface velocity in the Kuroshio Current and adjacent waters derived from Argos drifter buoys and satellite altimeter data     

马超  吴德星  林霄沛 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2009,27(2):208-217

By combining Argos drifter buoys and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data, the time series of sea-surface velocity fields in the Kuroshio Current (KC) and adjacent regions are established. And the variability of the KC from the Luzon Strait to the Tokara Strait is studied based on the velocity fields. The results show that the dominant variability period varies in different segments of the KC: The primary period near the Luzon Strait and to the east of Taiwan Island is the intra-seasonal time scale; the KC on the continental shelf of the ECS is the steadiest segment without obvious periodicity, while the Tokara Strait shows the period of seasonal variability. The diverse periods are caused by the Rossby waves propagating from the interior ocean, with adjustments in topography of island chain and local wind stress. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Nos. 2007CB411804, 2005CB422303), the NSFC (No. 40706006), the Key Project of International Science and Technology Cooperation Program of China (No. 2006DFB21250) and the “111 Project” (B07036), the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (NECT-07-0781)  相似文献   

The interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tianshun Wang  Yuguang Liu  Haibo Zong  Zengrui Rong 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2009,8(4):335-342

Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2007 period and the thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2005 obtained by using the global ocean temperature data sets recently published are used to investigate the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea (JES) and its response to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the interannual variations of the sea level observed by altimeter and those of the thermosteric sea level obtained from reanalyzed data in the JES are closely related to ENSO. As a result, one important consequence is that the sea level trends are mainly caused by the thermal expansion in the JES. An ‘enigma’ is revealed that the correlation between the thermosteric sea level and ENSO during the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) warm phase (post mid-1970s) is inconsistent with that during the cold phase (pre mid-1970s) in the JES. The thermosteric sea level trends and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggest a strong negative correlation during the period 1977–1998, whereas there appears a relatively weak positive correlation during the period 1945–1976 in the JES. Based on the SODA (Simple Oceanographic Data Assimilation) datasets, possible mechanisms of the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the JES are discussed. Comprehensive analysis reveals that the negative anomalies of SOI correspond to the positive anomalies of the southeast wind stress, the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES during the PDO warm phase. During the PDO cold phase, the negative anomalies of SOI correspond to the positive anomalies of the southwest wind stress, the negative anomalies of the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES.  相似文献   

Environmental effects on the recruitment variability of nursery species     

F. Martinho  M. Dolbeth  I. Viegas  C.M. Teixeira  H.N. Cabral  M.A. Pardal 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009,83(4):460-468

The recruitment variability of the marine fish species Dicentrarchus labrax, Platichthys flesus and Solea solea was evaluated in the Mondego estuary (Portugal) from 2003 to 2007. The relationships between sea surface temperature, NAO index, coastal wind speed and direction, precipitation and river runoff prior to the estuarine colonization and the abundance of 0-group fish were evaluated using gamma-based Generalized Linear Models. Dicentrarchus labrax and P. flesus 0-group decreased in abundance towards the end of the study period, while S. solea, despite low abundance in 2004, increased in abundance in 2007. For D. labrax, river runoff, precipitation and east–west wind were significant; for P. flesus, precipitation, river runoff and both north–south and east–west wind components were significant parameters, while for S. solea only river runoff was important. Results were compared with recent projections for climate change scenarios, to evaluate their effects on future recruitment levels.  相似文献   

Sea surface height variability in the Rio de la Plata estuary from synoptic to inter-annual scales: Results of numerical simulations     

V.L. Meccia  C.G. Simionato  M.E. Fiore  E.E. D'Onofrio  W.C. Dragani   《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009,85(2):327-343

A long term simulation of the barotropic circulation in the Río de la Plata estuary was performed with the aim of identifying the characteristic patterns of sea surface height (SSH) variability from synoptic to inter-annual time scales and their forcing mechanisms. Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HamSOM), forced by tides, monthly mean runoffs and 4-daily 10 m winds and surface atmospheric pressure from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis was run. The solution was analyzed for the period 1965–2004. Inter-annual variability accounts for almost 10% of the variance. The first EOF mode of SSH variability on this time scale is associated with a mean anomaly of approximately 0.25 m at the upper estuary forced by both runoff and winds, which seems to be strongly associated with the ENSO cycles. Other two modes, with periodicities around 2.5 and 10 years were also found. Even though they are linked to weaker SSH anomalies, they are consistent with inter-annual modes of wind variability reported by other authors. Those modes are important, particularly if they act in phase, because they can provide a background for stronger surges. In contrast with the salinity field, SSH variability on seasonal time scales accounts for a very small percentage of variance and it is the combination of an annual and a semi-annual signal forced by winds and runoff, respectively. Approximately 90% of the variance is due to wind driven variability on sub-annual time scales. The most significant SSH anomalies in this band are associated with cyclogenetic events in the atmosphere, occurring either over Uruguay or over the Patagonian Shelf, whereas the strengthening or weakening of the semi-permanent South Atlantic anticyclone displays a relatively smaller influence. In agreement with previous publications, the estuary's spatial patterns in response to short-scale wind variability seem to be determined by wind direction more than by wind speed.  相似文献