近30年东北春玉米发育期对气候变化的响应   总被引：12，自引：4，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

穆佳  赵俊芳  郭建平 《应用气象学报》2014,25(6):680-689

基于1981—2010年东北地区55个农业气象观测站发育期数据、16个气象站逐日气象资料,采用趋势变率、秩相关分析、主成分分析和结构方程模型等方法,分析了近30年东北春玉米关键发育期的变化特征,探讨了春玉米发育期对不同时间尺度气象因子的响应规律。结果表明:1981—2010年春玉米关键发育期 (播种期、抽雄期、成熟期) 均有延后趋势,大部分地区春玉米生长前期 (播种期—抽雄期) 日数减少,生长后期 (抽雄期—成熟期) 日数增加,全生育期日数增加。在绝大多数年份,春玉米播种期在温度适播期之后,成熟期在初霜日之前。近30年对东北春玉米生育期日数影响最大的气象要素为温度,主成分分析结果显示,年际尺度的升温、温度生长期的延长和作物生长期的高温对生育期日数影响显著;结构方程模型指出,作物生长期的最高温度和最低温度对生育期日数影响有间接效应,主导气象要素能够解释生育期日数变异的44%。全球变暖背景下,东北春玉米发育期变化是作物响应气候变化和农业生产适应气候变化的共同结果。  相似文献   

雷电定位系统与人工观测雷暴日数统计比较   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

王学良  张科杰  张义军  朱传林 《应用气象学报》2014,25(6):741-750

为了利用雷电定位系统 (lightning location system,LLS) 资料统计人工观测雷暴日数,采用湖北省2007—2012年LLS监测资料,选取25个气象站为圆心,统计其不同监测半径 (r) 圆区域内LLS监测的雷电日数,并与人工观测雷暴日数进行比较。结果表明:r≤7 km时,LLS监测平均年雷电日数小于人工观测平均年雷暴日数;r≥8 km时, LLS监测平均年雷电日数大于人工观测平均年雷暴日数;r=22 km圆区域内年平均雷电日数可替代最大年雷暴日数。根据r=7 km,r=8 km圆区域内LLS监测的年雷电日数、年平均地闪密度资料,分别采用直接替代法、地闪密度法和该文提出的二元法计算年雷暴日数,结果显示:二元法效果最好。二元法计算的2007—2012年25个站平均年雷暴日数与人工观测相等,平均差异为7.4%;二元法计算的2013年年雷暴日数与人工观测相差0.8 d,平均差异为12.3%。  相似文献   

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in PMIP2 simulations of the last glacial maximum     

Seong-Joong KIM  L Junmei  Baek-Min KIM 《大气科学进展》2014,31(4):863-878

The increasing trend of the Southern Annular Mode （SAM） in recent decades has influenced climate change in the Southem Hemisphere （SH）.How the SAM will respond increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the future remains uncertain.Understanding the variability of the SAM in the past under a colder climate such as during the Last Glacial Maximum （LGM） might provide some understanding of the response of the SAM under a future warmer climate.We analyzed the changes in the SAM during the LGM in comparison to pre-industrial （PI） simulations using five coupled ocean-atmosphere models （CCSM,FGOALS,IPSL,MIROC,HadCM） from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project （PMIP2）.In CCSM,MIROC,IPSL,and FGOALS,the variability of the simulated SAM appears to be reduced in the LGM compared to the PI simulations,with a decrease in the standard deviation of the SAM index.Overall,four out of the five models suggest a weaker SAM amplitude in the LGM consistent with a weaker SH polar vortex and westerly winds found in some proxy records and model analyses.The weakening of the SAM in the LGM was associated with an increase in the vertical propagation of Rossby waves in southern high latitudes.  相似文献   

哈尔滨雾霾天气候特征     

王庆祥  刘玉莲 《黑龙江气象》2014,(2):7-9

利用哈尔滨地面气象观测数据,对1961-2010年哈尔滨雾霾天气候特征进行分析,得出:1961-2010年,哈尔滨的雾霾天经历了一个减少-增多-减少的过程;哈尔滨市雾霾天气出现较频繁,有四到五成的日子会有雾霾天气出现,雾霾天以烟幕和轻雾天为主;雾霾天冬季出现最多,其次秋季,春、夏季较少;雾生多在凌晨3-6时,消多在清晨5-9时;持续时间多4 h(占有记录的雾持续时间81%)。  相似文献   

2009～2010年河西走廊大风日低空垂直切变和湍流统计特征     

董安祥  ;蔡忠兰  ;方锋  ;向军  ;杨苏华 《干旱气象》2014,(2):270-274

为了给河西走廊风电场建设提供科学依据,利用河西走廊14 座风能观测塔2009 年9 月至2010 年8 月的资料,分析了大风日低空垂直切变和湍流的演变和分布.结果表明：大风日风速垂直切变指数年平均在0. 092 ～0. 158 之间,较国标有些偏低;10 ～ 30 m、10 ～ 50 m 和10 ～ 70 m 的大风日风速垂直切变指数比非大风日偏小;低层风速垂直切变大,高层风速垂直切变小;大风日10 m、30 m、50 m 和100 m 4 层的年平均湍流强度为0. 11,比非大风日偏小一半左右;在大风日,随风速增大,风速不均一性减小,风向趋于稳定.  相似文献   

1960～2010年湖南雨日的时空变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张剑明  李巧媛  谭啸 《干旱气象》2014,(3):373-381

采用湖南省的88个地面气象站点逐日降水资料,运用经验正交分解（EOF）、线性回归、小波分析等方法分析了湖南雨日的空间变化特征和气候变化趋势,以及湖南雨日与降水量的关系。结果表明：湖南雨日空间分布大致是南多北少,平原少于山区丘陵区,呈现出2条少雨日带、4个多雨日区;过去51 a湖南大部分地区雨日呈减少趋势,对比雨日的空间分布发现,未来湖南雨日的空间分布差异可能减小;湖南雨日存在明显的年代际变化,1970年代和2000年代分别为近51 a来雨日最多和最少的10 a。湖南雨日的空间分型既有全区一致性,也存在着东南部—西北部、湘中地区与周围地区及东部—西部相反变化的差异。全区一致型雨日呈下降趋势,存在3 a、8 a和21 a周期变化。东南—西北反向型雨日东南（西北）呈下降（上升）趋势,存在3 a、6 a和18 a周期变化。湖南雨日与降水量呈正相关关系,且雨日和降水量的时空变化特征非常相似。  相似文献   

Bayesian modelling the retreat of the Irish Sea Ice Stream     

Richard C. Chiverrell  Ian M. Thrasher  Geoffrey S. P. Thomas  Andreas Lang  James D. Scourse  Katrien J. J. van Landeghem  Danny Mccarroll  Chris D. Clark  Colm Ó Cofaigh  David J. A. Evans  Colin K. Ballantyne 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(2):200-209

We present an 8000‐year history spanning 650 km of ice margin retreat for the largest marine‐terminating ice stream draining the former British–Irish Ice Sheet. Bayesian modelling of the geochronological data shows the ISIS expanded 34.0–25.3 ka, accelerating into the Celtic Sea to reach maximum limits 25.3–24.5 ka before a collapse with rapid marginal retreat to the northern Irish Sea Basin (ISB). This retreat was rapid and driven by climatic warming, sea‐level rise, mega‐tidal amplitudes and reactivation of meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The retreat, though rapid, is uneven, with the stepped retreat pattern possibly a function of the passage of the ice stream between normal and adverse ice bed gradients and changing ice stream geometry. Initially, wide calving margins and adverse slopes encouraged rapid retreat (～550 m a^?1) that slowed (～100 m a^?1) at the topographic constriction and bathymetric high between southern Ireland and Wales before rates increased (～200 m a^?1) across adverse bed slopes and wider and deeper basin configuration in the northern ISB. These data point to the importance of the ice bed slope and lateral extent in predicting the longer‐term (>1000 a) patterns and rates of ice‐marginal retreat during phases of rapid collapse, which has implications for the modelling of projected rapid retreat of present‐day ice streams. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Use of environmental magnetic measurements to validate the vertical extent of ice masses at the Last Glacial Maximum     

John Walden  Colin K. Ballantyne 《第四纪科学杂志》2002,17(3):193-200

Analysis of soil samples from above and below trimlines representing the upper limit of glacial erosion at the Last Glacial Maximum demonstrates that soils with prolonged weathering histories above such trimlines yield significantly different mineral magnetic signatures from soils below trimlines. The nature of the contrast is conditioned by lithology. Basalt soils above the trimline yield significantly higher values of concentration‐dependent magnetic parameters (χ, χ_arm, IRM_3T, soft IRM and hard IRM) than those below the trimline, due probably to transformation of non‐magnetic iron‐bearing minerals into magnetic forms. Conversely, for sandstone soils most magnetic parameters yield significantly lower values for above‐trimline samples, probably reflecting loss of ferrimagnetic minerals by dissolution and oxidation to aniferrimagnetic forms. These significant contrasts represent a new approach to validating high‐level weathering limits as periglacial trimlines cut at the Last Glacial Maximum. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Towards a climate event stratigraphy for New Zealand over the past 30 000 years (NZ‐INTIMATE project)     

Brent V. Alloway  David J. Lowe  David J. A. Barrell  Rewi M. Newnham  Peter C. Almond  Paul C. Augustinus  Nancy A. N. Bertler  Lionel Carter  Nicola J. Litchfield  Matt S. McGlone  Jamie Shulmeister  Marcus J. Vandergoes  Paul W. Williams  NZ‐INTIMATE members 《第四纪科学杂志》2007,22(1):9-35

It is widely recognised that the acquisition of high‐resolution palaeoclimate records from southern mid‐latitude sites is essential for establishing a coherent picture of inter‐hemispheric climate change and for better understanding of the role of Antarctic climate dynamics in the global climate system. New Zealand is considered to be a sensitive monitor of climate change because it is one of a few sizeable landmasses in the Southern Hemisphere westerly circulation zone, a critical transition zone between subtropical and Antarctic influences. New Zealand has mountainous axial ranges that amplify the climate signals and, consequently, the environmental gradients are highly sensitive to subtle changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Since 1995, INTIMATE has, through a series of international workshops, sought ways to improve procedures for establishing the precise ages of climate events, and to correlate them with high precision, for the last 30 000 calendar years. The NZ‐INTIMATE project commenced in late 2003, and has involved virtually the entire New Zealand palaeoclimate community. Its aim is to develop an event stratigraphy for the New Zealand region over the past 30 000 years, and to reconcile these events against the established climatostratigraphy of the last glacial cycle which has largely been developed from Northern Hemisphere records (e.g. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Termination I, Younger Dryas). An initial outcome of NZ‐INTIMATE has been the identification of a series of well‐dated, high‐resolution onshore and offshore proxy records from a variety of latitudes and elevations on a common calendar timescale from 30 000 cal. yr BP to the present day. High‐resolution records for the last glacial coldest period (LGCP) (including the LGM sensu stricto) and last glacial–interglacial transition (LGIT) from Auckland maars, Kaipo and Otamangakau wetlands on eastern and central North Island, marine core MD97‐2121 east of southern North Island, speleothems on northwest South Island, Okarito wetland on southwestern South Island, are presented. Discontinuous (fragmentary) records comprising compilations of glacial sequences, fluvial sequences, loess accumulation, and aeolian quartz accumulation in an andesitic terrain are described. Comparisons with ice‐core records from Antarctica (EPICA Dome C) and Greenland (GISP2) are discussed. A major advantage immediately evident from these records apart from the speleothem record, is that they are linked precisely by one or more tephra layers. Based on these New Zealand terrestrial and marine records, a reasonably coherent, regionally applicable, sequence of climatically linked stratigraphic events over the past 30 000 cal. yr is emerging. Three major climate events are recognised: (1) LGCP beginning at ca. 28 000 cal. yr BP, ending at Termination I, ca. 18 000 cal. yr BP, and including a warmer and more variable phase between ca. 27 000 and 21 000 cal. yr BP, (2) LGIT between ca. 18 000 and 11 600 cal. yr BP, including a Lateglacial warm period from ca. 14 800 to 13 500 cal. yr BP and a Lateglacial climate reversal between ca. 13 500 and 11 600 cal. yr BP, and (3) Holocene interglacial conditions, with two phases of greatest warmth between ca. 11 600 and 10 800 cal. yr BP and from ca. 6 800 to 6 500 cal. yr BP. Some key boundaries coincide with volcanic tephras. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Luminescence dating reveals a rapid response to climate change of fluvial terrace formation along the Ani River,northeastern Japan,during the last glacial period     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2022

Fluvial terraces along the middle reaches of many Japanese rivers were formed during the last glacial period as a result of changes in sediment discharge related to cooler temperatures and/or reduced water discharge because of lower precipitation. The influence of climate change on these fluvial terraces is not yet fully understood because most previous studies lacked detailed reconstructions of the chronology of terrace development. This study provides a detailed luminescence chronology of fluvial terrace deposits along the Ani River, northeastern Honshu, Japan, and compares that chronology to paleoclimatic records. Eight samples for luminescence dating were obtained from an outcrop of terrace deposits (∼10 m thick) in the Ani River valley. The fading-corrected infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) ages are consistent with the fading-corrected post-IR IRSL ages for some samples, which suggests that fading corrections were effective despite the higher fading rates of the IRSL signal. However, for the other samples, the post-IR IRSL ages are significantly older than the fading-corrected IRSL ages due to incomplete bleaching. The pulsed IRSL signals are close to field saturation for older samples, which might have resulted in a greater variation of the ages. Fading-corrected IRSL ages demonstrate periods of rapid aggradation during 105–90 ka and 75–60 ka. Comparison of terrace development with paleoclimatic records indicates that the two periods of fluvial deposition correspond to decreases in precipitation caused by weakened East Asian summer monsoon precipitation and possibly decreases in temperature. The results of this study show that the Ani River responded rapidly to climate change on a time scale of a few tens of thousands of years during the last glacial period.  相似文献