Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?     

Faisal Hossain 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(3):263-276

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.  相似文献   

Secular variations of the upper crust composition: Implication of geochemical data on the Upper Precambrian shales from the Southern Urals western flank and Uchur-Maya region     

A. V. Maslov  V. N. Podkovyrov  Yu. L. Ronkin  M. T. Krupenin  E. Z. Gareev  V. M. Gorozhanin 《Stratigraphy and Geological Correlation》2006,14(2):126-149

In the mid-1980s, it was concluded based on geochemical study that Th, Sc, La concentrations and ratios Th/Sc, La/Sc and Eu/Eu* did not wary significantly in the post-Archean time. It was impossible to judge about compositional variations of upper crust during the Riphean and Vendian, because data of that time characterized a limited number of samples from the post-Archean basins of Australia, New Zealand, and Antarctic. Considered in this work are variations of Eu/Eu*, LREE/HREE, Th/Sc, and La/Sc ratios in Upper Precambrian fine-grained siliciclastic rock of the Southern Urals western flank (Bashkirian meganticlinorium) and Uchur-Maya region (Uchur-Maya plate and Yudoma-Maya belt). As is established, only the Eu anomaly in the studied siliciclastic rocks is practically identical to this parameter of the average post-Archean shale. Three other parameters plot on the Riphean-Vendian variation curves with positive and negative excursions of diverse magnitude, which do not coincide always in time. It is assumed that these excursions likely mark stages of local geodynamic activity, destruction of pre-Riphean cratons, and progressing recycling of sedimentary material during the Riphean.  相似文献   

Lake-Level Fluctuations and Small-Scale Vegetation Patterns During the Late Glacial in The Netherlands     

Johanna A. A. Bos  Sjoerd J. P. Bohncke  C. Roel Janssen 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,35(2):211-238

Late glacial changes in the vegetation were studied in and around a former lake on the southeastern side of a coversand ridge near Milheeze (southern Netherlands). Analyses of microfossils and macroremains and AMS ¹⁴C dating were performed on four sediment cores along a transect from sand ridge to the lake centre. Small-scale vegetation patterns and lake-level fluctuations were reconstructed in detail based on the information provided by the transect. For the first time in The Netherlands, cores along a transect within one lake were used to reconstruct the amplitude of late glacial lake-level fluctuations. Near Milheeze, a small and shallow lake was formed during the Bølling. The large increase in the water level during the Bølling and early Allerød, and the transition to more eutrophic conditions at the start of the Allerød, were probably related to the disappearance of permafrost. During the Allerød, open birch and pine woodlands developed in the area. In the lake, organic deposits accumulated, and the lake size and depth fluctuated. At the start of the Younger Dryas, higher lake water levels were recorded and woodlands became more open as a result of both a drop in the temperature and an increase in the effective precipitation. During the late Younger Dryas the lake water level dropped as the climate became drier and temperatures slightly increased. Accumulation of organic deposits in the lake ceased at the end of the Younger Dryas, which was caused by a drop in the water level in combination with the hydroseral succession process within the lake itself. The climatic signal reflected in the late glacial flora and lake-level fluctuations agree well with other published data from The Netherlands.  相似文献   

Geodynamic significance of granitoid magmatism in the southeast Anatolian orogen: geochemical and geochronogical evidence from Göksun–Afşin (Kahramanmaraş, Turkey) region     

Osman Parlak 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(4):609-627

In southeast Anatolia, there are number of tectonomagmatic units in the Kahramanmaraş–Malatya–Elazığ region that are important in understanding the geological evolution of the southeast Anatolian orogenic belt during the Late Cretaceous. These are (a) metamorphic massifs, (b) ophiolites, (c) ophiolite-related metamorphics and (d) granitoids. The granitoids (i.e. Göksun–Afşin in Kahramanmaraş, Doğanşehir in Malatya and Baskil in Elazığ) intrude all the former units in a NE–SW trending direction. The granitoid in Göksun–Afşin (Kahramanmaraş) region is mainly composed of granodioritic and granitic in composition. The granodiorite contains a number of amphibole-bearing mafic microgranular enclaves of different sizes, whereas the granite is intruded by numerous aplitic dikes. The granitoid rocks have typical calcalkaline geochemical features. The REE- and Ocean ridge granite-normalized multi-element patterns and tectonomagmatic discrimination diagrams, as well as biotite geochemistry suggest that the granitoids were formed in a volcanic arc setting. The K–Ar geochronology of the granitoid rocks yielded ages ranging from 85.76±3.17 to 77.49±1.91 Ma. The field, geochemical and geochronological data suggest the following Late Cretaceous tectonomagmatic scenario for southeast Anatolia. The ophiolites were formed in a suprasubduction zone tectonic setting whereas the ophiolite-related metamorphic rocks formed either during the initiation of intraoceanic subduction or late-thrusting (∼90 Ma). These units were then overthrust by the Malatya–Keban platform during the progressive elimination of the southern Neotethys. Thrusting of the Malatya–Keban platform over the ophiolites and related metamorphic rocks was followed by the intrusion of the granitoids (88–85 Ma) along the Tauride active continental margin in the southern Neotethys.  相似文献   

Petrogenesis and tectonic setting of Cadomian felsic igneous rocks, Sandıklı area of the western Taurides, Turkey     

Semih Gürsu  M. Cemal Göncüoglu 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(5):741-757

In the Sandıklı (Afyon) region, western Taurides, the Late Proterozoic rocks of the Sandıklı basement complex are composed of low-grade meta-sedimentary rocks (Güvercinoluk Formation) intruded by felsic rocks (Kestel Cayı Porphyroid Suite, KCPS). The KCPS is a deformed and highly sheared, dome-shaped rhyolitic body with a granitic core. Quartz porphyry dikes intrude both the slightly metamorphic igneous and the sedimentary rocks of the basement complex. Both the quartz porphyries and rhyolites were converted into mylonites with relict igneous textures. Geochemical data show that these felsic igneous rocks are subalkaline and mainly granitic in composition with SiO₂ >72 wt% and Al₂O₃ >11.5 wt%. The chondrite-normalized incompatible trace element patterns are characterized by distinct negative Rb, Nb, Sr, P, Ti, and Eu with enrichment in Th, U, La, Ce, Nd, Sm, and Zr. The REE patterns of the felsic rocks indicate a strong enrichment in LREE but display slightly flat HREE patterns. According to geochemical characteristics and petrogenetic modeling, extrusive and intrusive rocks of the KCPS were probably derived from an upper continental crustal source (partial melting of granites/felsic rocks) by 18–20% fractional melting plus 18–20% Rayleigh fractional crystallization, which seems to be the most effective igneous process during the crystallization of the KCPS. Single zircon age data from the granitoids and fossils from the disconformably overlying sedimentary successions indicate that the metamorphism and the igneous event in the Taurides are related to the Cadomian orogeny. Based on the geological, geochemical and petrogenetic correlation of the post-collisional granitoids it is further suggested that the Tauride belt in western central Turkey was in a similar tectonic setting to the Gondwanan terranes in North Africa (Younger Granitoids) and southern Europe (Spain, France, Bohemia, Brno Massifs) during the Late Cadomian period.  相似文献   

Faulted backfold versus reactivated backthrust: the role of inherited structures during late extension in the frontal Piémont nappes east of Pelvoux (Western Alps)     

Pierre Tricart  Christian Sue 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(5):827-840

In the central part of the internal Western Alps, widespread multidirectional normal faulting resulted in an orogen-scale radial extension during the Neogene. We revisit the frontal Piémont units, between Doire and Ubaye, where contrasting lithologies allow analysing the interference with the N–S trending Oligocene compressive structures. A major extensional structure is the orogen-perpendicular Chenaillet graben, whose development was guided by an E–W trending transfer fault zone between the Chaberton backfold to the north and the Rochebrune backthrust to the south. The Chaberton hinge zone was passively crosscut by planar normal faults, resulting in a E–W trending step-type structure. Within the Rochebrune nappe, E–W trending listric normal faults bound tilted blocks that slipped northward along the basal backthrust surface reactivated as an extensional detachment. Gravity-driven gliding is suggested by the general northward tilting of the structure in relation with the collapse of the Chenaillet graben. The stress tensors computed from brittle deformation analysis confirm the predominance of orogen-parallel extension in the entire frontal Piémont zone. This can be compared with the nearby Briançonnnais nappe stack where the extensional reactivation of thrust surfaces locally resulted in prominent orogen-perpendicular extension. Such a contrasting situation illustrates how the main direction of the late-Alpine extension may be regionally governed by the nature and orientation of the pre-existing structures inherited from the main collision stage.  相似文献   

晋城市下河泉水源地开发利用可行性分析     

唐青凤 《地下水》2005,27(1):31-33

在野外调查和收集现有资料基础上,对下河泉水源地水文地质条件、泉水流量动态、水源地保证程度与可能的环境问题进行了分析,论证了建立下河泉水源地的可行性.  相似文献   

漳河上游入河排污口调查与分析     

于焕民 《地下水》2005,27(6):429-432

本文在调查、分析了漳河上游入河排污口分布、度污水入河量及污染物入河量的基础上,提出了对入河排污口的治理措施及管理办法.  相似文献   

青藏高原东缘龙门山晚新生代剥蚀厚度与弹性挠曲模拟   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

李勇  ALDENSMORE  周荣军  MA  ELLIS 《地质学报》2005,79(5):608-615

龙门山是青藏高原东缘边界山脉,具有青藏高原地貌、龙门山高山地貌和山前冲积平原三个一级地貌单元。利用数字高程模式图像和裂变径迹年代测定方法研究和计算龙门山晚新生代剥蚀厚度与剥蚀速率,结果表明:3.6 Ma以来龙门山的剥蚀厚度介于1.91-2.16 km之间,剥蚀速率介于0.53-0.60 mm/a之间。在此基础上,开展了该地区岩石圈的弹性挠曲模拟,结果表明龙门山的隆升机制具有以构造缩短隆升和剥蚀卸载隆升相叠合的特点。3.6 Ma之前,龙门山的隆升与逆冲推覆构造负载有关,以构造缩短驱动的构造隆升为特色;3.6 Ma之后,龙门山的隆升与剥蚀卸载驱动的抬升有关,并以剥蚀卸载隆升为特色,进而提出了龙门山晚新生代以来的隆升机制以剥蚀成山作用为主的认识。  相似文献   

层次化网络SCADA通讯模型及其应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

陈志文 《物探化探计算技术》2005,27(4):354-357

为在大型网络分布式SCADA（Super Control and Data Acquisition）应用系统中解决诸如电力、通信、石油、化工、制造业等行业或领域，在过程、流程、状态方面的数据监视、数据控制、数据采集与数据管理的高效、实时问题，解决各级子系统之间人工逐级汇接的问题，提高应用系统的稳定性、可维护性，这里提出了一种层次化网络SCADA通讯模型。该模型是通过在层次化网络SCADA模型中，引入基于TCP／IP协议的客户机／服务器查询方式数据通讯技术和点对点主动数据传递技术而建立的。根据该模型所设计的产品，经过生产实践证明，应用该模型可以较方便地构造分布在不同区域计算机上的SCADA系统，进行高效的实时通信。该模型为具有多层结构的大型分布式网络化集中SCADA系统的设计、开发，探索出了一条十分有效的新路径。  相似文献