数值剖析0411号热带气旋位置不连续变化和强度突变   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈桂兴  林良勋  冯业荣  林钢  袁卓建 《气象学报》2007,65(4):588-600

为探究竟0411号热带气旋(TC0411)出现数小时内向北"走"了300多公里且急剧加强的异常现象,根据TC0411经向环流特征(辐合抬升ω<0的水汽多来自偏南风v>0)及其与第2类条件不稳定(CISK)机制的密切关系,运用反映南海经向环流的线性诊断模式(包含边界效应、各稳定度及17个内力因子),对TC0411进行定量诊断。结果表明:南海东北部深厚强盛的偏南风急流及其造成的弱惯性稳定度为TC0411发生发展(向北不连续位移)提供了有利水汽输送和抬升(驱动)条件。其中,对偏南风有突出正贡献的边界效应与5°N西南夏季风和西太平洋东南风的辐合有关;驱动地转南风的气压梯度力与中南半岛季风槽、西太平洋高压和高层东风扰动有关。驱动非地转南风的内力因子主要是与斜压不稳定有关的平均经向温度平流、与西南风急流切变场有关的涡动西风动量经向输送、与夏季风环流和高层东风扰动相互作用有关的平均西风动量纬向输送及与非对称动力热力场有关的涡动温度平流。TC0411向北不连续位移实质为22.7°N附近生成新热带低压(TD)和19°N附近TD消亡的结果。2004年7月26日20时—27日02时激发22.7°N附近上升运动(19°N附近下沉运动)的主要因子是平均经向温度平流和涡动西风动量水平输送(平均西风动量纬向输送和涡动温度平流)。27日02—14时使新TD加强为热带风暴(TS)并维持的主要因子是潜热加热和平均经向温度平流。根据以上分析,建议业务预报应着眼于深厚强盛西南风急流和温度平流的共同作用。  相似文献   

Monthly prediction of tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea using the FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system          下载免费PDF全文

Shentong Li  Jinxiao Li  Jing Yang  Qing Bao  Yimin Liu  Zili Shen 《大气和海洋科学快报》2022,15(2):26-32

本研究基于新一代FGOALS-f2动力集合预测系统35年(1981-2015年)的热带气旋历史回报试验对南海台风季(7-11月)热带气旋活动超前10天的月预测技巧进行评估,并对2020年南海台风季热带气旋活动进行了实时月预测尝试.结果表明:FGOALS-f2能较好地预测南海热带气旋路径密度演变特征,预测的热带气旋生成个...  相似文献   

Interannual variability in the sea surface cooling induced by tropical cyclones in the South China Sea     

Juan Ouyang  Chunhua Qiu  Zhenhui Yi  Dongxiao Wang  Danyi Su  Hong Liang  Zihao Yang 《海洋学报(英文版)》2021,40(11):70-78

Sea surface cooling induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) is an important component of air-sea interactions. Using coordinate transformation and composite analysis methods, we examined the interannual variability in TC-induced sea surface cooling (TCSSC) in the South China Sea (SCS). The frequency of surface cooling cases was over 86% and that of surface warming cases was less than 14%. The magnitude of TCSSC was defined as the absolute value of TCSSC. The maximum magnitude of TCSSC occurred on the right side of the TC track, and the mean magnitude of TCSSC decreased by 0.04°C/a from 2006 to 2018. The interannual variability in TCSSC was highly correlated with the TC translation speed and pre-TC mixed layer depth. Notably, TCSSC got enhanced in El Ni?o years of 2007, 2010, and 2015. The El Ni?o types were suggested to determine the occurring periods of strong TCSSC via controlling the positions of SCS anticyclones, which brought pre-TC shallow mixed layer and caused strong TCSSC via vertical mixing process during El Ni?o events. To quantify how the anticyclone influences TCSSC, we need to use mixed layer heat balances model in the next study.  相似文献   

Investigation on the Cyclonic Seastate along Southeast Coast of India     

K. V. Anand  V. Sundar 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(1):58-78

The east coast of the Indian Peninsula experiences the effects of a devastating cyclone at least annually. The Thane cyclone of 29–30 December 2011 has been once such event that resulted in significant damages along the coastline of Tamil Nadu on the southeast coast of India (13° 9′ 10′ N and 80° 21′E). Waves as high as 8–12 m in a water depth of 20 m have been measured. Such huge waves, combined with a storm surge of 0.5 m, lead to severe damages to coastal structures during the passage of the cyclone. As a part of an exercise in assessing the sediment transport rates through measurements of the hydrodynamic driving parameters along the coast of major port of Chennai instruments were deployed for the measurement of waves and flow field. The measurement campaign was carried out at a location of about 120 km north of the cyclone made landfall. The ENCEP wind data formed the input for executing the WAM model for the simulation of wave characteristics, which are compared with the measured wave data. The agreement between them is found to be good. The details of the analysis of the results are presented and discussed in this paper.  相似文献   

西北太平洋热带气旋与上层海洋热含量的关系   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

蔡晓杰  姜华  王辉  左军成 《海洋学报》2013,35(3):28-35

利用SODA(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation)的海温资料和Unisys Weather的热带气旋资料,研究了1960-2008年期间北太平洋上层150 m的热含量分布特征及其与西北太平洋热带气旋发生频次的关系。考虑了纬度的变化对热含量的影响后,北太平洋热含量的高值中心位于10°N左右,与上层海温结构相符,计算结果更加符合物理意义。北太平洋热含量与西北太平洋热带气旋频数年际相关性研究表明在北太平洋中高纬度大洋内区和赤道东太平洋热带不稳定波发生区呈现出前期冬季正相关性。此相关性存在显著年代际的变化,在1970-1975年和1984-2008年期间最强,1976-1983年期间较弱。在北太平洋中高纬度大洋内区,同期春夏秋季同样存在强正相关。在西太平洋暖池区,同期秋季负相关最为显著。赤道中太平洋区域在夏季呈显著的正相关,秋季减弱。赤道东太平洋海域的相关性前期冬季负相关最为显著,春季负相关性减弱,夏季和秋季无显著相关。  相似文献   

Occurrence of landslides during the approach of tropical cyclone Juliette (2001) to Baja California Sur,Mexico     

J.L. Antinao  L.M. Farfán 《Atmósfera》2013,26(2):183-208

The approach of tropical cyclone (TC) Juliette, in 2001, to the Baja California Peninsula triggered at least 419 landslides. Most of the landslides were shallow slips and debris slides of limited areal extent, which were converted rapidly into debris flows to be exported quickly out of the mountain areas towards the lowlands. Main factors affecting landslide occurrence were total storm rainfall and intensity, aspect, geology and vegetation association. Two processes can be distinguished as initiating slope failure. Accumulation of rainfall from exposed bedrock slopes, generating excess overland flow, was the main process linked to failures in concave topography. A combination of wind and excess overland flow in the more convex or planar upper slopes was a secondary process related to heterogeneity of vegetation associations in the oak-dry tropical forests ecotone, as uprooted trees dislodged large regolith and bedrock blocks, priming hillslopes for further runoff concentration. An estimative threshold curve for triggering landslides in this region is sketched. From the analysis of historical information, storms like Juliette approach the southern peninsula on average once every 100 years. Denudation estimates are in the higher end of the spectrum for a tectonically passive margin. These estimates should be considered when taking decisions regarding management of water resources in this area through damming of streams. The results emphasize the need for a more detailed representation of the spatial distribution of the rainfall and winds for this mountainous region affected by TCs.  相似文献   

A climatological study of the effect of sea-surface temperature on North Atlantic hurricane intensification     

Erik Fraza  James B. Elsner 《自然地理学》2013,34(5):395-407

The climatic influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on intensification is examined for North Atlantic hurricanes by averaging hourly intensity increases from best-track data over the period 1986–2013 in 4° by 4° latitude–longitude grid cells. Independent monthly SST data over the same period are averaged in the same cells. After removing cells with cold water or fast moving hurricanes, the SST effect on intensification, at the climate scale, is quantified by regressing intensification onto SST while controlling for average intensity. The regression is performed using a generalized linear model from a gamma family and a logarithmic link function. The model shows a statistically significant relationship, with higher intensification values associated with higher SST values. On average, mean intensification increases by 16% [(9,?20)% uncertainty interval] for every 1 °C increase in mean SST. A clustered region where the model underpredicts intensification is noted over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, perhaps related to the fresh water plume from the Orinoco River.  相似文献   

准噶尔盆地南缘一次强对流风暴雷达回波演变特征     

赵俊荣  郭金强  杨景辉  杨建成 《辽宁气象》2011,(1):21-26

利用Doppler雷达产品,结合常规观测资料对2008年7月25日中国准噶尔盆地南缘冰雹、强降水的雷达回波结构演变特征进行分析。结果表明：此次冰雹、强降水天气过程发生在西伯利亚至巴尔喀什湖冷槽东南象限的对流不稳定层结中,近低层至地面有中尺度辐合切变线。强风暴的演变可归为＂逗点—‘人’字形—螺旋形＂3个回波阶段,相应径向速度图上出现＂逆风区＂、中气旋和辐合区。冰雹的雷达回波强度中心值超过65 dBz6,0 dBz回波顶高为5.5 km,65 dBz回波顶高为3.0 km。垂直累积液态含水量由10 kg·m^-2增至70 kg·m^-2。强降水的雷达回波强度中心值达60 dBz,55 dBz回波顶高为3.7 km6,0 dBz回波顶高为2.2 km。垂直累积液态含水量由15 kg·m^-2增加至55kg·m^-2。Doppler雷达产品对冰雹、强降水天气监测预警具有指示意义。  相似文献   

台风"莫拉克"暴雨特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

左平昭  问伟力 《气象科技》2011,39(3):302-307

利用常规气象资料和卫星、雷达、区域自动站等资料以及NCEP再分析资料,对2009年闽东北地区"莫拉克"台风的降水特征做初步分析.结果表明:台风"莫拉克"暴雨具有明显的"空心化"特征,有利的环境场条件、螺旋雨带上对流单体的不断影响、台风移动缓慢是此次台风暴雨的主要原因,而地形也有明显增幅作用.通过雷达回波基本反射率因子强...  相似文献   

Relative role of subinertial and superinertial modes in the coastal long wave response forced by the landfall of a tropical cyclone     

Ziming Ke Alexander E. Yankovsky 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(9):929-938

A set of numerical experiments has been performed in order to analyze the long-wave response of the coastal ocean to a translating mesoscale atmospheric cyclone approaching the coastline at a normal angle. An idealized two-slope shelf topography is chosen. The model is forced by a radially symmetric atmospheric pressure perturbation with a corresponding gradient wind field. The cyclone's translation speed, radius, and the continental shelf width are considered as parameters whose impact on the long wave period, modal structure, and amplitude is studied. Subinertial continental shelf waves (CSW) dominate the response under typical forcing conditions and on the narrower shelves. They propagate in the downstream (in the sense of Kelvin wave propagation) direction. Superinertial edge wave modes have higher free surface amplitudes and faster phase speeds than the CSW modes. While potentially more dangerous, edge waves are not as common as subinertial shelf waves because their generation requires a wide, gently sloping shelf and a storm system translating at a relatively high (∼10 m s⁻¹ or faster) speed. A relatively smaller size of an atmospheric cyclone also favors edge wave generation. Edge waves with the highest amplitude (up to 60% of the forced storm surge) propagate upstream. They are produced by a storm system with an Eulerian time scale equal to the period of a zero-mode edge wave with the wavelength of the storm spatial scale. Large amplitude edge waves were generated during Hurricane Wilma's landfall (2005) on the West Florida shelf with particularly severe flooding occurring upstream of the landfall site.  相似文献