An automatic procedure to forecast tephra fallout     

A. Folch  C. Cavazzoni  A. Costa  G. Macedonio 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Tephra fallout constitutes a serious threat to communities around active volcanoes. Reliable short-term forecasts represent a valuable aid for scientists and civil authorities to mitigate the effects of fallout on the surrounding areas during an episode of crisis. We present a platform-independent automatic procedure with the aim to daily forecast transport and deposition of volcanic particles. The procedure builds on a series of programs and interfaces that automate the data flow and the execution and subsequent postprocess of fallout models. Firstly, the procedure downloads regional meteorological forecasts for the area and time interval of interest, filters and converts data from its native format, and runs the CALMET diagnostic model to obtain the wind field and other micro-meteorological variables on a finer local-scale 3-D grid defined by the user. Secondly, it assesses the distribution of mass along the eruptive column, commonly by means of the radial averaged buoyant plume equations depending on the prognostic wind field and on the conditions at the vent (granulometry, mass eruption rate, etc). All these data serve as input for the fallout models. The initial version of the procedure includes only two Eulerian models, HAZMAP and FALL3D, the latter available as serial and parallel implementations. However, the procedure is designed to incorporate easily other models in a near future with minor modifications on the model source code. The last step is to postprocess the outcomes of models to obtain maps written in standard file formats. These maps contain plots of relevant quantities such as predicted ground load, expected deposit thickness and, for the case of or 3-D models, concentration on air or flight safety concentration thresholds.  相似文献   

Continuous Hidden Markov Models: Application to automatic earthquake detection and classification at Las Canãdas caldera,Tenerife     

Moritz Beyreuther  Roberto Carniel  Joachim Wassermann 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

A possible interaction of (volcano-) tectonic earthquakes with the continuous seismic noise recorded in the volcanic island of Tenerife was recently suggested. Also recently the zone close to Las Canadas caldera shows unusual high number of near (< 25 km), possibly volcano-tectonic, earthquakes indicating signs of reawakening of the volcano putting high pressure on the risk analyst. Certainly for both tasks consistent earthquake catalogues provide valuable information and thus there is a strong demand for automatic detection and classification methodologies generating such catalogues. Therefore we adopt methodologies of speech recognition where statistical models, called Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), are widely used for spotting words in continuous audio data. In this study HMMs are used to detect and classify volcano-tectonic and/or tectonic earthquakes in continuous seismic data. Further the HMM detection and classification is evaluated and discussed for a one month period of continuous seismic data at a single seismic station. Being a stochastic process, HMMs provide the possibility to add a confidence measure to each classification made, basically evaluating how “sure” the algorithm is when classifying a certain earthquake. Moreover, this provides helpful information for the seismological analyst when cataloguing earthquakes. Combined with the confidence measure the HMM detection and classification can provide precise enough earthquake statistics, both for further evidence on the interaction between seismic noise and (volcano-) tectonic earthquakes as well as for incorporation in an automatic early warning system.  相似文献   

Doubled CO₂ impact on subarctic marine carbon cycle: a case study at Ocean Station P     

K. Higuchi  Y. -H. Chan  C. W. Yuen  C. S. Wong 《Marine Chemistry》2000,72(2-4)

Along with meteorological observations, complementary and systematic oceanographic observations of various physical, biological and chemical parameters have been made at Ocean Station P (OSP) (50°N, 145°W) since the early 1950s. These decadal time scale data have contributed to a better understanding of the physical, biological and chemical processes in the surface layer of the northeastern subarctic region of the Pacific Ocean. These data have demonstrated the importance of the North Pacific in the global carbon cycle and, in particular, the role of biological/chemical processes in the net exchange of CO₂ across the air–sea interface. Although we do not fully comprehend how climatic variations influence marine communities or marine biogeochemistry, previous studies have provided some basic understanding of the mechanisms controlling the seasonal and inter-annual variations of biological and chemical parameters (such as phytoplankton, bacteria, nitrate/ammonium concentration) at OSP, and how they affect the carbon cycling in the subarctic North Pacific. In this study, we investigate how these mechanisms might alter the seasonal variations of these parameters at OSP under a 2XCO₂ condition. We examine these influences using a new biological model calibrated by the climatological data from OSP. For the 2XCO₂ simulation, the biological model is driven off line (i.e., no feedback to the ocean/atmospheric model components) by the climatology plus 2XCO₂−1XCO₂ outputs from a global surface ocean model and the Canadian GCM. Under the 2XCO₂ condition, the upper layer ocean shows an increase in the entrainment rate at the bottom of the mixed layer for OSP during the late autumn and winter seasons, resulting in an increase in the f-ratio. Although there is an overall increase in the primary production (PP) by 3–18%, a decrease in the biomass of small phytoplankton and microzooplankton (due to mesozooplankton grazing) lowers the concentration of dissolved organic matter (DOM) by 4–25%. The model also predicts a significant increase in the concentrations of nitrate and ammonium, and in bacterial production during July and August. Doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ from 330 to 660 ppm forces the marine pCO₂ to increase by about 63%, much of which is driven by an increased flux of CO₂ from the atmosphere to the oceans.  相似文献   

Hydrodynamic models of Planetary Nebulae     

Garrelt Mellema 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,245(2):239-253

This article tries to give a short review of the hydrodynamic modelling of Planetary Nebulae to date. I start by discussing the types of observations the modelling aims to reproduce and then discuss the results of different types of models. First the simplified models in which evolutionary changes in the stellar properties are neglected, then the evolutionary models in which these effects are taken into account. The simplified models can reproduce single shell nebulae with the right kinematic properties. The evolutionary models can reproduce multiple shells and some of the kinematic and morphological differences between various ions. I also briefly discuss some of the difficulties which have not been addressed and/or solved by the numerical modelling, such as the point-symmetric nebulae, some of the collimated phenomena, and clumpiness.Abbreviations AGB Asymptotic Giant Branch - PN Planetary Nebulae - YSO Young Stellar Object  相似文献   

Drivers of collaboration to mitigate climate change: An illustration of Swiss climate policy over 15 years     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

Climate change mitigation policy is driven by scientific knowledge and involves actors from the international, national and local decision-making levels. This multi-level and cross-sectoral context requires collaborative management when designing mitigation solutions over time and space. But collaboration in general policymaking settings, and particularly in the complex domain of climate mitigation, is not an easy task. This paper addresses the question of what drives collaboration among collective actors involved in climate mitigation policy. We wish to investigate whether common beliefs or power structures influence collaboration among actors. We adopt a longitudinal approach to grasp differences between the early and more advanced stages of mitigation policy design. We use survey data to investigate actors’ collaboration, beliefs and power, and apply a Stochastic Actor-oriented Model for network dynamics to three subsequent networks in Swiss climate policy between 1995 and 2012. Results show that common beliefs among actors, as well as formal power structures, have a higher impact on collaboration relations than perceived power structures. Furthermore, those effects hold true for decision-making about initial mitigation strategies, but less so for the implementation of those measures.  相似文献   

NEX-GDDP降尺度数据对中国极端降水指数模拟能力的评估     

王倩之  刘凯  汪明 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(1):31-43

利用1986—2005年中国地面气象台站观测的格点化逐日降水数据(CN05.1)评估了NASA高分辨率降尺度逐日数据集NEX-GDDP中21个全球气候模式在0.25?(约25 km×25 km)分辨率下对中国极端降水的模拟能力.选取年最大日降水量(RX1D)、年最大5 d降水量(RX5D)、湿日总降水量(PRCPTOT...  相似文献   

The Ocean Loading Effect in the GPS Analysis: A Case Study in the Antarctic Peninsula Region     

R. Dach  R. Dietrich 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(1):13-25

The accuracy of GPS data analysis for the vertical component has reached a level where the vertical crustal deformation due to the ocean tidal loading should be taken into consideration. Ocean loading affects in particular the results of the GPS analysis for those observation sets covering less than 24 hours. Especially in these cases, a correction for this phenomenon should be performed during the data analysis. On the other hand, it is possible to estimate the ocean loading effect from GPS data sets. In this way it is possible to validate models for the loading deformation derived from global ocean tide models.  相似文献   

海拉尔盆地火山碎屑岩的测井响应与应用   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

陶宏根  程日辉  赵小青  孙凤贤  于振锋 《地球物理学报》2011,54(2):534-544

海拉尔盆地中生界为熔岩-火山碎屑岩-沉积岩系列岩性组合,是测井解释层位.但是精细的岩心岩石类型描述与测井识别岩性的精度不匹配,岩心精细分层厚度往往小于测井分层的最小厚度0.6 m.研究显示,安山岩、熔结凝灰岩、凝灰岩、沉凝灰岩、凝灰质砾岩、凝灰质砂岩和沉积岩等主要岩性具有各自的测井响应,即有特定的岩-电关系模式.交会图...  相似文献   

Probabilistic multi-model ensemble prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using general circulation models: A non-parametric approach     

Nachiketa Acharya  Uma Charan Mohanty  Lokanath Sahoo 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2013,345(3):126-135

Probabilistic prediction has the ability to convey the intrinsic uncertainty of forecast that helps the decision makers to manage the climate risk more efficiently than deterministic forecasts. In recent times, probabilistic predictions obtained from the products from General Circulation Models (GCMs) have gained considerable attention. The probabilistic forecast can be generated in parametric (assuming Gaussian distribution) as well as non-parametric (counting method) ways. The present study deals with the non-parametric approach that requires no assumption about the form of the forecast distribution for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) based on the hindcast run of seven general circulation models from 1982 to 2008. Probabilistic prediction from each of the GCM products has been generated by non-parametric methods for tercile categories (viz. below normal (BN), near-normal (NN), and above normal (AN)) and evaluation of their skill is assessed against observed data. Five different types of PMME schemes have been used for combining probabilities from each GCM to improve the forecast skill as compared to the individual GCMs. These schemes are different in nature of assigning the weights for combining probabilities. After a rigorous analysis through Rank Probability Skill Score (RPSS) and relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the superiority of PMME has been established over climatological probability. It is also found that, the performances of PMME1 and PMME3 are better than all the other methods whereas PMME3 has showed more improvement over PMME1.  相似文献   

Seismic upgrading of old masonry buildings by seismic isolation and CFRP laminates: a shaking-table study of reduced scale models   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Miha Tomaževič  Iztok Klemenc  Polona Weiss 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2009,7(1):293-321

The efficiency of improving the seismic resistance of old masonry buildings by means of seismic isolation and confining the structure with CFRP laminate strips has been investigated. Five models of a simple two-story brick masonry building with wooden floors without wall ties have been tested on the shaking table. The control model has been built directly on the foundation slab. The second model has been separated from it by a damp-proof course in the form of a PVC sheet placed in the bed-joint between the second and the third course, whereas the third model has been isolated by rubber isolators placed between the foundation slab and structural walls. Models four and five have been confined with CFRP laminate strips, simulating the wall ties placed horizontally and vertically at floor levels and corners of the building, respectively. One of the CFRP strengthened models has been placed on seismic isolators. Tests have shown that a simple PVC sheet damp-proof course cannot be considered as seismic isolator unless adequately designed. Tests have also shown that the isolators alone did not prevent the separation of the walls. However, both models confined with CFRP strips exhibited significantly improved seismic behavior. The models did not collapse even when subjected to significantly stronger shaking table motion than that resisted by the control model without wall ties.  相似文献