BP人工神经网络法在大同市日极大风速预报中的应用     

刘洁莉  刘冬辉  韩登云  徐鑫 《内蒙古气象》2019,(2):34-38

文章利用2010年1月1日—2013年12月31日逐日NCEP再分析资料(1°×1°)和大同地区地面常规观测资料,采用BP人工神经网络法建立大同市分站点、分季节日极大风速人工神经网络预报模型并且在对T639数值预报产品和EC细网格数值预报产品释用基础上建立了台站日极大风速的客观预报系统,对2015年9月1日—2016年7月31日进行了24h预报,试用结果显示,各季模式平均绝对误差在3.2~5.7m·s^-1之间,因此,该系统可以为预报员快速做出日极大风速的预报提供客观参考依据。  相似文献   

中国中东部区域TRMM降水产品降尺度研究及其时空特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

何其全  史岚  谭璐璐  万逸波  王茜雯 《气象科学》2019,39(3):312-321

该研究以中国中东部区域(17°～50°N,98°～135°E)为研究范围,在前人研究基础上,根据水汽与降水之间的关系,基于MOD05水汽产品,采用偏最小二乘法,对中国中东部区域2001—2010年10 a平均TRMM3B43_V 7月降水产品进行降尺度,旨在得到空间分辨率为1 km×1 km的月降水空间分布。通过比较分析,发现该降尺度模型能大幅提高TRMM产品空间分辨率,估算结果平均相对误差为15.35%,与地面观测较接近,能体现中国中东部区域降水宏观分布趋势,且估算结果精度高于前人基于归一化植被指数(NDVI)的降尺度模型,能满足降水产品的精细化需求。  相似文献   

我国无缝隙精细化网格天气预报技术进展与挑战   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

金荣花  代刊  赵瑞霞  曹勇  薛峰  刘凑华  赵声蓉  李勇  韦青 《气象》2019,45(4):445-457

本文总结了2014年以来我国无缝隙精细化网格天气预报业务的技术进展,讨论了未来发展所面临的关键技术难点。无缝隙精细化网格预报技术的发展,得益于综合气象观测数据和多源资料融合分析网格实况产品的支撑,更依赖于多尺度数值预报模式和实时快速更新同化预报系统的快速发展。经过近5年的探索和努力,我国已经初步建立了针对不同预报时效的无缝隙精细化网格预报技术体系。对于0～4 h预报时效,主要基于全国雷达拼图和GRAPES-Meso模式预报,发展临近分钟级滚动外推预报技术;对于4 h到30 d预报时效,主要通过对区域或全球不同时空分辨率模式预报进行偏差订正、客观解释应用以及降尺度分析,提高预报的准确度和精细度。与此同时,研发了自动化、智能化的交互式预报制作平台,以满足客观高效制作与预报员对极端或高影响天气主观预报优势相结合的需求。发展了以格点实况分析场为参照的空间分析检验方法,初步实现了对高分辨率网格预报的质量跟踪和性能评估。未来的网格预报技术体系,需要吸纳前沿的技术研究成果,包括人工智能应用技术、高级多模式统计后处理技术和协调一致性关键技术等,并且建立统一完整的技术架构和开发标准等。  相似文献   

地质岩芯科技资源科普化工作探索与实践——以自然资源实物地质资料中心为例     

张志伟  刘文卿  袁野  高建伟  苏桂芬 《地质论评》2024,70(1):362-366

岩芯科技资源科普化是打通地质科研—科普链条的重要途径,本文通过梳理我国岩芯科技资源现状,分析了岩芯科技资源科普化的现实意义,重点阐述了岩芯科技资源在向地质科普转化5个方面的探索与实践,提出了今后岩芯科技资源科普化工作应建立良好政策机制制度、转变科研人员观念、科技知识向科普转化水平、新技术新手段的应用以及做好科普活动的实施总结等5项工作建议。  相似文献   

Variability of temperature,salinity and tidally‐averaged density in the middle estuary of the St Lawrence     

Langley R. Muir 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):320-336

Abstract

Surveys in the Middle Estuary of the St Lawrence have yielded a data base consisting of more than 15,000 T‐S pairs distributed over 62 13‐h profiling stations. Although the T‐S curves at each station are remarkably linear, the variability of the slopes and intercepts of the lines is considerable. The means and standard deviations of the temperature and salinity at each individual station are not explicable in terms of linear combinations of the parameters for location in the Estuary, the upstream water properties, the phase of the spring‐neap cycle and the tidal energies.

It is shown that the tidally‐averaged density structure is separable into horizontal and vertical components and that its vertical variation over the whole Estuary may be explained by any one of three different functional forms. However, its horizontal variation is not explicable in terms of linear combinations of the parameters mentioned in the paragraph above.

Plots of the horizontal variations in temperature, salinity or density may only be meaningful if the data are collected synoptically, and even then cannot be considered to be accurate over time‐scales longer than one tidal cycle.  相似文献   

国家气象中心数值预报业务的进展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

裘国庆 《气象》1994,20(12):27-34

在最近的１５年中，国家气象中心的数值预报业务高速度发展，预报模式从北半球模式发展为全球谱模式，并配套建立了资料同化系统和用于降水预报的有限区预报模式，暴雨和台风预报模式正在研制中。目前数值预报时效已延至７天，Ｔ６３９３丙上时的预报水平已优于的数值预报产品的应用技术在不断改进，最高（低）气温下两天ＭＯＳ预报精度已接近预报员制作的综合预报结果。  相似文献   

Multifacetted study of a cretaceous coal with algal affinities—II. Composition of liquefaction products     

Z. Mudamburi  P.H. Given 《Organic Geochemistry》1985,8(3):221-231

Two hydrogen-rich lithobodies of highly alipathic character from a coal occurring in southwest Utah, have been studied. Bituminite (>50%), vitrinite (25–30%) and liptodetrinite (7–12%) are the principal macerals. The hexane-soluble products of hydrogenating the lithotypes at 400° with tetralin and hydrogen have been analyzed by GC-MS. Products identified include homologous series of alkylated naphthalenes, phenols, furans, cyclohexenones and hydroxy-pyridines. In the case of furans, the alkyl groups extend beyond C₃₀. Materials released by Soxhlet extraction with pyridine consist chiefly of homologous series of fatty acids and their methyl esters and of methyl alkyl ketones, which were not found in the hydrogenation products. The long alkyl chains in these substances can account for about 75% of the alkanes found in the hydrogenation products but not in the extracts. Most of the compounds mentioned in the foregoing are thought to be physically held or trapped in the coal, rather than chemically combined in its macromolecular network. Except for the fatty acids, the origins of these substances are difficult to identify.  相似文献   

Pyrolysis of immature Torbanite and of the resistant biopolymer (PRB A) isolated from extant alga Botryococcus braunii. Mechanism of formation and structure of torbanite     

C. Largeau  S. Derenne  E. Casadevall  A. Kadouri  N. Sellier 《Organic Geochemistry》1986,10(4-6)

Immature Torbanite and the resistant biopolymer (PRB A) isolated from extant B. braunii were previously compared using bulk spectroscopic methods. In the present work, analysis of 400°C pyrolysis products and pyrolysis residues provided further information on their structure and possible relationships. It appears that such polymers are based upon unbranched, saturated, cross-linked hydrocarbon chains up to C₃₁. In addition to these bridging structures, a substantial part of the alkyl chains is singly bound, as esters of unbranched, saturated or cis unsaturated, even fatty acids. These esters are sterically protected, against chemical degradations, by the network of the bioand geopolymer.Quantitative and qualitative observations derived from 400°C pyrolysis confirm that the chemical structure of PRB A and immature Torbanite are closely related. The pyrolysis residues show a similar evolution and numerous common features are noted, with respect to the nature and the distribution of the major constituents of the pyrolysates (hydrocarbons and fatty acids). Accordingly, Botryococcus provides what seems to be the first example of a close structural relationship between a biopolymer produced in large amounts by an extant alga and the geopolymer of an immature kerogen. The essential role of PRB A in Torbanite formation is ascertained. Moreover, it is found that the resistant biopolymer does not undergo important structural changes during the first stages of diagenesis. Thus, owing to steric protection, the esters of immature Torbanite show a distribution quite close to the one of PRB A esters, with exclusively even constituents and a large contribution of unsaturated acids.Recent observations pointed to the possible genesis of some algal kerogens principally by selective preservation of resistant macromolecules. Such a type of formation is clearly predominant in Torbanite, where the bulk of the fossil organic matter corresponds to a selectively preserved and weakly altered, resistant biopolymer, while incorporation of lipids into the kerogen structure during diagenesis seems to play a minor role.  相似文献   

宝顶山石窟造象岩壁风化产物化学特征及形成分析     

汪东云  谢本立 《工程地质学报》1995,3(3):18-30

为研究宝顶山石窟区造象岩壁风化破坏及渗水危害的作用机理,选择不同类型风化产物进行定期采样监测。本文重点论述了外围岩石和造象岩壁风化产物的化学成分及矿物成分、风化产物可溶盐的化学特征及可溶盐类型,以及这些特征的多年变化规律,分析论证了可溶盐不同水化学成因类型的形成特征,为防风化防渗水危害治理措施提供可靠依据。  相似文献   

地球数字产品的空间数学基础   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

胡鹏胡毓钜  吴艳兰杨传勇 李国建 《地球信息科学学报》2001,3(3):36-42

在分析当前地球数字产品空间数学基础局限性的基础上,将地图投影概念由传统的曲面到平面的变换扩展为曲面到曲面的变换,提出一套适合于大型GIS和地球数字产品的“地图投影”模型的实用模型,该模型的视图采用等距离切圆柱投影,度量空间是椭球面几何系统,符合计算机环境下GIS视图与度量空间分离的特性。鉴于全球多分辨率连续可视化,精密可视化量算,三维、多维地球数据统一,标准的空间定位框架和只有在统一的空间系统内全球资源、生态环境数据才能进行精确的地理分析等四个方面的需要,从地图投影进到本模型将是方向和技术趋势。  相似文献