Bias aware Kalman filters: Comparison and improvements   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jean-Philippe Drécourt  Henrik Madsen  Dan Rosbjerg 《Advances in water resources》2006

This paper reviews two different approaches that have been proposed to tackle the problems of model bias with the Kalman filter: the use of a colored noise model and the implementation of a separate bias filter. Both filters are implemented with and without feedback of the bias into the model state. The colored noise filter formulation is extended to correct both time correlated and uncorrelated model error components. A more stable version of the separate filter without feedback is presented. The filters are implemented in an ensemble framework using Latin hypercube sampling. The techniques are illustrated on a simple one-dimensional groundwater problem. The results show that the presented filters outperform the standard Kalman filter and that the implementations with bias feedback work in more general conditions than the implementations without feedback.  相似文献   

Assimilating remotely sensed snow observations into a macroscale hydrology model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Konstantinos M. Andreadis  Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Advances in water resources》2006

Accurate forecasting of snow properties is important for effective water resources management, especially in mountainous areas like the western United States. Current model-based forecasting approaches are limited by model biases and input data uncertainties. Remote sensing offers an opportunity for observation of snow properties, like areal extent and water equivalent, over larger areas. Data assimilation provides a framework for optimally merging information from remotely sensed observations and hydrologic model predictions. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was used to assimilate remotely sensed snow observations into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model over the Snake River basin. The snow cover extent (SCE) product from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) flown on the NASA Terra satellite was used to update VIC snow water equivalent (SWE), for a period of four consecutive winters (1999–2003). A simple snow depletion curve model was used for the necessary SWE–SCE inversion. The results showed that the EnKF is an effective and operationally feasible solution; the filter successfully updated model SCE predictions to better agree with the MODIS observations and ground surface measurements. Comparisons of the VIC SWE estimates following updating with surface SWE observations (from the NRCS SNOTEL network) indicated that the filter performance was a modest improvement over the open-loop (un-updated) simulations. This improvement was more evident for lower to middle elevations, and during snowmelt, while during accumulation the filter and open-loop estimates were very close on average. Subsequently, a preliminary assessment of the potential for assimilating the SWE product from the advanced microwave scanning radiometer (AMSR-E, flown on board the NASA Aqua satellite) was conducted. The results were not encouraging, and appeared to reflect large errors in the AMSR-E SWE product, which were also apparent in comparisons with SNOTEL data.  相似文献   

Data assimilation for transient flow in geologic formations via ensemble Kalman filter     

Yan Chen  Dongxiao Zhang 《Advances in water resources》2006

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Asymmetric copula in multivariate flood frequency analysis   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Salvatore Grimaldi  Francesco Serinaldi 《Advances in water resources》2006

The univariate flood frequency analysis is widely used in hydrological studies. Often only flood peak or flood volume is statistically analyzed. For a more complete analysis the three main characteristics of a flood event i.e. peak, volume and duration are required. To fully understand these variables and their relationships, a multivariate statistical approach is necessary. The main aim of this paper is to define the trivariate probability density and cumulative distribution functions. When the joint distribution is known, it is possible to define the bivariate distribution of volume and duration conditioned on the peak discharge. Consequently volume–duration pairs, statistically linked to peak values, become available. The authors build trivariate joint distribution of flood event variables using the fully nested or asymmetric Archimedean copula functions. They describe properties of this copula class and perform extensive simulations to highlight differences with the well-known symmetric Archimedean copulas. They apply asymmetric distributions to observed flood data and compare the results those obtained using distributions built with symmetric copula and the standard Gumbel Logistic model.  相似文献   

Estimating the Soil Moisture Profile by Assimilating Near-Surface Observations with the Ensemble Kalman Filter （EnKF）   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

ZHANG Shuwen  LI Haorui  ZHANG Weidong  QIU Chongjian  LI Xin 《大气科学进展》2005,22(6):936-945

The paper investigates the ability to retrieve the true soil moisture profile by assimilating near-surface soil moisture into a soil moisture model with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） assimilation scheme, including the effect of ensemble size, update interval and nonlinearities in the profile retrieval, the required time for full retrieval of the soil moisture profiles, and the possible influence of the depth of the soil moisture observation. These questions are addressed by a desktop study using synthetic data. The ＂true＂ soil moisture profiles are generated from the soil moisture model under the boundary condition of 0.5 cm d^-1 evaporation. To test the assimilation schemes, the model is initialized with a poor initial guess of the soil moisture profile, and different ensemble sizes are tested showing that an ensemble of 40 members is enough to represent the covariance of the model forecasts. Also compared are the results with those from the direct insertion assimilation scheme, showing that the EnKF is superior to the direct insertion assimilation scheme, for hourly observations, with retrieval of the soil moisture profile being achieved in 16 h as compared to 12 days or more. For daily observations, the true soil moisture profile is achieved in about 15 days with the EnKF, but it is impossible to approximate the true moisture within 18 days by using direct insertion. It is also found that observation depth does not have a significant effect on profile retrieval time for the EnKF. The nonlinearities have some negative influence on the optimal estimates of soil moisture profile but not very seriously.  相似文献   

Preliminary Study on the Application of GPS Observations to a Mesoscale Numerical Model          下载免费PDF全文

YUAN Zhaohong  DING Jincai  CHEN Min 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2005,19(3):332-344

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The Negra Muerta Volcanic Complex, southern Central Andes: geochemical characteristics and magmatic evolution of an episodically active volcanic centre   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ivan Alejandro Petrinovic  Ulrich Riller  Jos Affonso Brod 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2005,140(4):295-320

This petrologic analysis of the Negra Muerta Volcanic Complex (NMVC) contributes to understanding the magmatic evolution of eruptive centres associated with prominent NW-striking fault zones in the southern Central Andes. Specifically, the geochemical characteristics and magmatic evolution of the two eruptive episodes of this Complex are analysed. The first one occurred as an explosive eruption at 9 Ma and is represented by a strongly welded, fiamme-rich, andesitic to dacitic ignimbrite deposit. The second commenced with an eruption of a rhyolitic ignimbrite at 7.6 Ma followed by effusive discharge of hybrid lavas at 7.3 Ma and by emplacement of andesitic to rhyodacitic dykes and domes. Both explosive and effusive eruptions of the second episode occurred within a short time span, but geochemical interpretations permit consideration of the existence of different magmas interacting in the same magma chamber. Our model involves an andesitic recharge into a partially cooled rhyolitic magma chamber, pressurising the magmatic system and triggering explosive eruption of rhyolitic magma. Chemical or mechanical evidence for interaction between the rhyolitic and andesitic magma in the initial stages are not obvious because of their difference in composition, which could have been strong enough to inhibit the interaction between the two magmas. After the initial explosive stages of the eruption at 7.6 Ma, the magma chamber become more depressurised and the most mafic magma settled in compositional layers by fractional crystallisation. Restricted hybridisation occurred and was effective between adjacent and thermally equivalent layers close to the top of the magma chamber. At 7.3 Ma, increments of caldera formation were accompanied by effusive discharge of hybrid lavas through radially disposed dykes whereby andesitic magma gained in importance toward the end of this effusive episode in the central portion of the caldera. Assimilation during turbulent ascent (ATA) is invoked to explain a conspicuous reversed isotopic signature (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd) in the entire volcanic series. Therefore, the 7.6 to 7.3 Ma volcanic rocks of the NMVC resulted from synchronous and mutually interacting petrological processes such as recharge, fractional crystallization, hybridisation, and Assimilation during Turbulent Ascent (ATA).Geochemical characteristics of both volcanic episodes show diverse type and/or depth in the sources and variable influence of upper crustal processes, and indicate a recurrence in the magma-forming conditions. Similarly, other minor volcanic centres in the transversal volcanic belts of the Central Andes repeated their geochemical signatures throughout the Miocene.  相似文献   

Accumulation and sources of heavy metals in urban topsoils: a case study from the city of Xuzhou, China   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Xue Song Wang  Yong Qin  Shu Xun Sang 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(1):101-107

The knowledge of the variability, the anthropogenic versus natural origin and corresponding environmental risk for potentially harmful elements in urban topsoils is of importance to assess human impact. The aims of the present study were: (1) to assess the distribution of heavy metals (Sn, Li, Ga, Ba, Fe, Mn, Co, Be, Ti, Al, Hg, Cr, Sb, As, Bi, Pd, Pt, Au, Ni, Cd, Zn, Cu, Pb, Se, Mo, Sc and Ag) in urban environment; (2) to discriminate natural and anthropogenic contributions; and (3) to identify possible sources of pollution. Multivariate statistic approaches (principal component analysis and cluster analysis) were adopted for data treatment, allowing the identification of three main factors controlling the heavy metal variability in Xuzhou urban topsoils. Results demonstrate that Hg, Cr, Sb, As, Bi, Pd, Pt, Au, Ni, Cd, Br, Zn, Cu, S, Pb, Se, Mo, Sc and Ag could be inferred to be tracers of anthropogenic pollution, whereas Al, Ti, Ga, Li, V, Co, Pt, Mn and Be were interpreted to be mainly inherited from parent materials. Iron, Ba, Sn, Pd and Br were interpreted to be affected by mixed sources.  相似文献   

Rapid Change of Lava Composition from 1998 to 2002 at Piton de la Fournaise (Reunion) Inferred from Pb Isotopes and Trace Elements: Evidence for Variable Crustal Contamination     

VLASTELIC  IVAN; STAUDACHER  THOMAS; SEMET  MICHEL 《Journal of Petrology》2005,46(1):79-107

After an unusually long quiet period of nearly 6 years, in 1998the Piton de la Fournaise volcano started a new cycle of intensevolcanic activity. We report geochemical data on the first nineevents (53 samples), from the long-lived initial eruption (sixand a half months) of 1998 to the high-flux picritic eruptionof January 2002. Pb isotopes and trace elements display systematic,coupled variations, which are mostly confined to the beginningand the end of the period. Two well-defined binary mixing trendsare shown by Pb–Pb and Pb–trace element relationships.These trends indicate a change of end-member components betweenMarch and June 2001 that coincides with the transition fromsteady-state basalts to picrites. A three-component mixing modelinvolving a homogeneous plume and two contaminants successfullyexplains the data. The Pb–Pb relationship requires thattwo mixing processes occur successively: plume-derived magmainteracts first with altered oceanic crust, and the resultinghybrid product then interacts at shallower level with the oldlavas constituting the base of the volcanic edifice. Assimilationof edifice material decreased continuously from 1998 to 2002,whereas assimilation of oceanic crust drastically increasedduring the late-stage picritic eruption. These results suggestthat picrites may have resided for an unusually long time atan oceanic crustal level before ascending rapidly through thevolcanic edifice with little interaction with channel walls. KEY WORDS: assimilation; lead isotopes; picrites; Piton de la Fournaise; trace elements  相似文献   

Vers une meilleure représentation de la distribution et de la variabilité de l'ozone atmosphérique par l'assimilation des données satellitaires     

Sébastien Massart  Daniel Cariolle  Vincent-Henri Peuch 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(15):1305-1310

Data assimilation plays an important role in the analysis of atmospheric data, in particular for numerical weather prediction and the detection of climate variations. In the field of atmospheric chemistry, assimilation techniques have been recently developed to study the distribution of tracer species, with emphasis on the ozone content. The present work reports on assimilation experiments of vertical ozone profiles from the GOME instrument performed with MOCAGE, a chemical-transport model and a 3D-FGAT variational technique. It is shown that this technique is very well adapted for ozone assimilation and can be extended to various sensors or other trace species. To cite this article: S. Massart et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献