Robust numerical implementation of a 3D rate-dependent model for reservoir geomechanical simulations     

Giovanni Isotton  Pietro Teatini  Massimiliano Ferronato  Carlo Janna  Nicolò Spiezia  Stefano Mantica  Giorgio Volonte 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(18):2752-2771

A 3D elasto-plastic rate-dependent model for rock mechanics is formulated and implemented into a Finite Element (FE) numerical code. The model is based on the approach proposed by Vermeer and Neher (A soft soil model that accounts for creep. In: Proceedings of the International Symposium “Beyond 2000 in Computational Geotechnics,” pages 249-261, 1999). An original strain-driven algorithm with an Inexact Newton iterative scheme is used to compute the state variables for a given strain increment.The model is validated against laboratory measurements, checked on a simplified test case, and used to simulate land subsidence due to groundwater and hydrocarbon production. The numerical results prove computationally effective and robust, thus allowing for the use of the model on real complex geological settings.  相似文献   

Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed     

Yanyan Cheng  Fred L. Ogden  Jianting Zhu 《水文研究》2020,34(3):569-582

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.  相似文献   

River discharge,land use change,and surface water quality in the Xiangjiang River,China          下载免费PDF全文

Zhao Zhang  Yi Chen  Pin Wang  Jiabing Shuai  Fulu Tao  Peijun Shi 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4130-4140

To compare the impacts of river discharge on the surface water quality of the Xiangjiang River in China, 12 surface water quality parameters recorded at 31 sampling sites from January 1998 to December 2008 along the river and its main tributaries were analyzed. Significantly higher concentrations of total nitrogen, ammoniacal nitrogen, and total phosphorus, and biochemical oxygen demand were observed during low‐flow periods than during high‐flow periods, implying a higher risk to local residents drinking untreated water during low‐flow periods. Pollution indexes, including the inorganic pollution index and integrated pollution index (IPI), were negatively related to impervious surface area (ISA) and cropland area (CLA) when ISA (CLA) was less than 160 (3000) km². However, the relationship was positive when ISA (CLA) was larger than 160 (3000) km², which provided a reasonable explanation for the observed spatial patterns of water quality. Distinct increasing temporal trends for two kinds of pollution indexes were also found. The annual ISA was significantly related to the rapid degradation of water quality from 1998 to 2008, with correlation coefficient (r) values of 0.816 (p = 0.002) and 0.711 (p = 0.014) for the organic pollution index (OPI) and IPI, respectively. However, annual rainfall was negatively correlated with the two indexes with r values of 0.785 (p = 0.002) and 0.448 (p = 0.093) for OPI and IPI, respectively. Our study highlights that decision makers should be more aware of recent increases in the pollution of the Xiangjiang River, especially at downriver sites and during low‐flow periods. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Chloride source delineation in an urban-agricultural watershed: Deicing agents versus agricultural contributions     

Andrew Oberhelman  Eric W. Peterson 《水文研究》2020,34(20):4017-4029

Analyses (n = 525) of chloride (Cl⁻), bromide (Br⁻), nitrate as nitrogen (NO₃-N), sodium (Na⁺), calcium (Ca²⁺) and potassium (K⁺) in stream water, tile-drain water and groundwater were conducted in an urban-agricultural watershed (10% urban/impervious, 87% agriculture) to explore potential differences in the signature of Cl⁻ originating from an urban source as compared with an agricultural source. Only during winter recharge events did measured Cl⁻ concentrations exceed the 230 mg/L chronic threshold. At base flow, nearly all surface water and tile water samples had Cl⁻ concentrations above the calculated background threshold of 18 mg/L. Mann–Whitney U tests revealed ratios of Cl⁻ to Br⁻ (p = .045), to NO₃-N (p < .0001), to Ca²⁺ (p < .0001), and to Na⁺ (p < .0001) to be significantly different between urban and agricultural waters. While Cl⁻ ratios indicate that road salt was the dominant source of Cl⁻ in the watershed, potassium chloride fertilizer contributed as an important secondary source. Deicing in watersheds where urban land use is minimal had a profound impact on Cl⁻ dynamics; however, agricultural practices contributed Cl⁻ year-round, elevating stream base flow Cl⁻ concentrations above the background level.  相似文献   

Collaborative Governance and Conflict Management: Lessons Learned and Good Practices from a Case Study in the Amazon Basin     

Joshua Fisher  Hannah Stutzman  Mariana Vedoveto  Debora Delgado  Ramon Rivero  Walter Quertehuari Dariquebe 《社会与自然资源》2020,33(4):538-553

Abstract

Given the linkages between natural resources and social conflicts, evidence increasingly shows that successful natural resource management requires conflict mitigation and prevention. However, there may be a gap in practice between knowing what processes and tools need to be used to manage conservation conflicts and how to actually implement them. We present learning from a practice-based case study of conflict management in the Amarakaeri Communal Reserve in the Peruvian Amazon that aimed to develop natural resource governance institutions and build stakeholder capacity, including of indigenous groups, to navigate existing conflict resolution mechanisms. Through applying good practices in conservation conflict management and collaborative governance, we generated important lessons on the practical considerations involved in collaborative conservation. These lessons, while specific to our case, could be applied to a variety of protected areas facing complex social-ecological systems dynamics and wicked problems.  相似文献   

大兴安岭天保工程区生态系统服务变化研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

郑树峰  王丽萍  臧淑英 《地理科学》2021,41(7):1295-1302

利用Landsat和MODIS遥感数据和InVEST模型,评估了1990―2015年大兴安岭天保工程区实施前后生态系统土壤风蚀量、生境质量和碳储量的时空变化,并通过地理探测器方法对生态系统服务时空变化分布与趋势进行驱动因子探测和交互作用探测分析。结果表明：① 从空间分布来看,额尔古纳市南部、鄂温克族自治旗西北部、科尔沁右翼前旗的土壤风蚀量大,生境质量差,碳储量低。② 2000年天保工程实施之后,森林面积显著增加,土壤风蚀量减少1.14%,生境质量增加0.49%,碳储量减少幅度为0.12%,低于2000年以前的0.64%。③ 土壤风蚀量主要受植被类型、土壤类型的影响,生态系统类型、植被类型对生境质量、碳储量空间异质性的影响显著大于其他因素,海拔、坡度2种地形因子对土壤风蚀量、碳储量的解释能力很小。温度、降水2种气候因子对土壤风蚀量、生境质量和碳储量的解释能力不固定,但仍是不可或缺的因素。  相似文献   

土地资源错配对中国城市工业绿色全要素生产率的影响   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

邓楚雄  赵浩  谢炳庚  李忠武  李科 《地理学报》2021,76(8):1865-1881

基于价格扭曲效应拓展资源错配模型,使用中国285个城市2004—2017年的工业投入产出数据,测算土地资源错配导致的城市工业绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）损失,并分析其时空变化。结果表明：① 土地资源错配对中国城市工业GTFP损失的年均贡献率为10.05%,已与能源错配并列成为继资本错配之后城市工业GTFP损失的重要贡献者。② 土地资源错配导致中国城市工业GTFP损失呈现“先小幅下降,再大幅上升,后较大幅度下降”的时序变化特征,但总体趋于上升,损失值介于1.10%~2.48%之间,纠正土地资源错配,中国现有城市的工业GTFP有望实现年均2%左右的再增加;东、中部地区土地资源错配导致的城市工业GTFP损失呈现出与全国层面类似的变化特征,西部地区的城市工业GTFP损失整体保持高位,总体稍有下降,东部地区是中国城市工业发展的主要阵地,其土地资源错配导致的城市工业GTFP损失主导着全国层面的城市工业GTFP损失变化。③ 土地资源错配导致中国城市工业GTFP损失的空间格局呈连片集聚化的发展特征,城市工业GTFP损失较高和高等级省份的数量有所增加,逐渐集中到以黄河流域为主的北方地区,损失低和中等等级省份的数量相应减少,逐渐集中到长江流域及东部沿海地区;土地资源错配导致中国城市工业GTFP损失的总差异呈缩小态势,三大地区内城市工业用地配置效率不均衡是土地资源错配导致中国城市工业GTFP损失差异的根本原因,其中西部地区内城市工业用地配置效率不均衡是主要原因,近年来的区域协同发展有利于三大地区间城市工业用地配置效率差距的缩小。  相似文献   

收缩情境下城市用地结构时空格局演变及动力机制——以中国东北地区为例   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

宋洋  朱道林  YEUNG Godfrey  徐阳  张立新 《地理研究》2021,40(5):1387-1403

构建城市用地结构时空格局演变分析框架,引入信息熵和偏移份额模型定量剖析2000—2017年中国东北地区城市用地结构时空格局演变特征,通过计量经济模型分阶段对比分析收缩情境下东北地区城市用地结构演变的动力机制。结果表明：东北地区城市用地总面积持续增长,用地结构信息熵整体呈现先上升、后下降的趋势。2011年以后,城市用地结构有序性、多样性不断提升,单一优势地类主导作用显著下降。公共设施用地、道路交通用地及绿地与广场用地为增长型地类,是东北地区城市用地规模扩张和结构演变的主要动因。用地结构竞争性偏移量具有显著的空间非均衡性,总体与辽中南和哈长两大城市群空间格局基本吻合,新增城市用地的集聚效应不断凸显。城市人口规模变迁、城市经济发展水平提升、产业结构升级与城市居住条件改善对城市用地结构演变具有显著的正向驱动作用。收缩情境下,各因素的拉动作用逐渐减弱,国家宏观政策的约束力不断增强,城市公共服务水平改善的强需求成为驱动用地结构演变的外在动力。  相似文献   

喀斯特地区地表温度空间降尺度方法初探     

尹枷愿  蔡宏  田鹏举  唐敏 《地理与地理信息科学》2021,37(2):38-46,99

喀斯特地区地形起伏大,常规的降尺度方法及所选择的因子对其不适用。该文根据喀斯特地区的特点,选取反射率、遥感指数及高程因子为尺度因子,通过随机森林模型建立MODIS第31、32波段辐射亮度数据和尺度因子之间的非线性关系,构建适合喀斯特地区的随机森林(Karst Random Forest,KRF)模型,成功将空间分辨率为1 km的热红外辐射亮度降至100 m,最后利用劈窗算法反演得到空间分辨率为100 m的地表温度。将KRF方法与仅考虑常规因子的多因子随机森林回归模型(MTVRF)和热锐化算法(TsHARP)对比,结果表明:1)在不同高差的喀斯特地区,KRF方法可较大程度提高地表温度降尺度精度,均方根误差(RMSE)在遵义市西北部和贵阳市以南地区分别为2.46 K和1.45 K,较MTVRF模型分别降低了0.1419 K和0.2928 K,较TsHARP算法分别降低了0.6204 K和0.6953 K,且在地形起伏度较低的喀斯特山区城市(贵阳市以南)表现更好;2)在喀斯特地区不同地类上,KRF方法效果也较好,其中植被区域最优,RMSE为1.41 K,破碎的裸土区域RMSE为1.84 K。研究显示,考虑特殊尺度因子的KRF方法可提高喀斯特地区地表温度的降尺度精度,为该地区以地表温度为基础的研究提供更精细可靠的地表温度产品。  相似文献   

基于脱钩模型的湖北省乡村人—耕—居变化关联模式分析     

陈翠芳  孔雪松  朱思阳  陈晓丽 《地理与地理信息科学》2021,37(1):59-65

乡村人口、耕地和居民点(人—耕—居)是农村社会经济发展的核心要素,其变化反映了农村特定时期的人地关系。该文综合运用热点分析和脱钩模型,探讨2009-2017年湖北省县域乡村人—耕—居动态演化特征和时空关联模式,揭示乡村人—耕—居发展的内在关系与规律。结果表明:1)湖北省乡村人—耕—居整体以“人减耕减居增”变化为主,空间上未呈现典型的高低值集聚特征,但武汉市及其周边区域是人口和居民点变化的冷热点集聚区。2)强复钩和衰退复钩分别是湖北省乡村人口与居民点变化及人口与耕地变化的最主要类型,农村居民点粗放利用趋势明显,城镇发展与耕地保护的矛盾依然突出。3)湖北省县域乡村人—耕—居变化共有7种时空关联模式,不同类型分布体现了城镇化和社会经济发展的地域分异性,人—居强复钩与人—耕衰退复钩组合是最主要类型,湖北省县域多数乡村发展尚处于快速城镇化的自然衰退期。研究成果有助于深入理解快速城镇化期乡村人地关系,能够为乡村振兴分类、分标准施策提供借鉴。  相似文献