Moment inequality and complete convergence of moving average processes under asymptotically linear negative quadrant dependence assumptions     

Guang-hui Cai  Hang Wu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(1-2):1-5

Let {Y, Y _i , −∞ < i < ∞} be a doubly infinite sequence of identically distributed and asymptotically linear negative quadrant dependence random variables, {a _i , −∞ < i < ∞} an absolutely summable sequence of real numbers. We are inspired by Wang et al. (Econometric Theory 18:119–139, 2002) and Salvadori (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:116–140, 2003). And Salvadori (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:116–140, 2003) have obtained Linear combinations of order statistics to estimate the quantiles of generalized pareto and extreme values distributions. In this paper, we prove the complete convergence of under some suitable conditions. The results obtained improve and generalize the results of Li et al. (1992) and Zhang (1996). The results obtained extend those for negative associated sequences and ρ^*-mixing sequences. CIC Number O211, AMS (2000) Subject Classification 60F15, 60G50 Research supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China  相似文献   

宁波市负氧离子浓度分布与预测模型及其在旅游气象中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

顾小丽  钱燕珍  鲍岳建  邬方平 《气象与环境学报》2013,29(6):128-133

利用2010-2011年宁波地区空气负氧离子浓度资料,分析其分布特征及与气象因素的相关性,采用逐步回归方法建立负氧离子浓度预测模型。结果表明：负氧离子浓度有市中心附近低、郊区高的地域分布特征;夜晚到清晨高、白天低,夏季高、冬季低的变化规律。据此可选择在早晨或傍晚空气负氧离子含量高的时候多到远郊污染少、植被茂密、有动态水流的地区旅游,避开冬季空气污染大的雾霾日。空气负氧离子浓度与气温、PM₁₀呈负相关,与相对湿度、雷雨、闪电等正相关,可选择在雷阵雨过后的晴朗天气出行旅游。负氧离子预测模型预报能力较好,预测模型的建立实现了宁波地区空气负氧离子浓度的定量化预报,对旅游气象服务有重要意义。  相似文献   

Orbital Period Changes and Long Term Luminosity Variation in Active Binary CG Cyg     

D. M. Z. Jassur  M. H. Kermani  G. Gozaliasl 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2006,304(1-4):157-160

UBV photometric observations of the active binary star CG Cygnus have been presented and analyzed to obtain absolute parameters of both components. Updated O-C diagram analysis by Kalimeris method yielded the values of 1.55× 10^-6 day and 1.4×10^-7day as the amplitudes of orbital period modulation, and P_mod1∼ 52.3 yr and P_mod2 ∼ 15.9 yr as the modulation periodicities. Finally, the consequences of period changes have been discussed on the basis of Applegate mechanism.  相似文献   

Photometric distances to dark clouds: cometary globule CG 12     

G. Maheswar  P. Manoj  H. C. Bhatt 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,355(4):1272-1282

  相似文献   

从气旋和反气旋谈正、负阻尼     

刘式达  刘式适  付遵涛 《大气科学》2014,38(6):1041-1043

在定常条件下,利用简化的大气运动控制方程,分析了气旋与反气旋的基本特征。在此基础上,利用常微分方程的定性分析与求解,获得了气旋和反气旋轨道的解析解。接合气旋与反气旋的基本特征,论证了正负阻尼在气旋和反气旋运动中具体体现,并从物理机理上说明产生气旋和反气旋运动中正负阻尼的差异在于水平辐合在低层的不同。  相似文献   

大连市负氧离子浓度分布及预测模型的建立   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

丛菁  孙立娟 《气象与环境学报》2010,26(4):44-47

利用2008—2009年大连市逐日负氧离子实况资料,分析了负氧离子季、月和日变化特征及其与相关气象要素的关系。结果表明：负氧离子浓度具有明显的季节变化,冬季最大,夏季最小;而气温和PM10等是影响大连市负氧离子浓度的关键因素。运用逐步回归方法,求得各季节负氧离子的预报方程,实现了预报的定量化。经检验,预报方程效果显著,在预报业务中具有实际参考价值。  相似文献   

Analysis of the Winter Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity and Its Synoptic Background in China during 2010-20     

Manman MA  Xiaogang HUANG  Jianfang FEI  Chi ZHANG  Chao LI  Xiaoping CHENG 《大气科学进展》2022,39(6):985-998

Cloud-to-ground(CG)lightning data and the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset are analyzed to gain insight into the spatiotemporal distribution and synoptic background of winter-season CG flashes between December 2010 and February 2020 in China.We identify three Winter Lightning Frequent Areas(WLAs):the southwest side of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau(WLA1),the east side of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau(WLA2),and the Poyang Lake Plain(WLA3).The CG lightning flashes most frequently occur at local midnight and have a monthly peak in February.The CG lightning in WLA1 is mostly generated in non-frontal weather;however,the lightning in WLA2 and WLA3 mostly occurs in frontal systems.The frontal circulation situation is divided into four typical types:transversal trough after high pressure,low vortex,confrontational convergence,and asymptotic convergence.In all typical weather patterns,the lightning occurs downstream of a 500 hPa trough and is accompanied by a southwesterly low-level jet.The convective parameters of winter thunderstorms differ greatly from those of summer thunderstorms.The maximum convective available potential energy(MCAPE)and K-index(KI)are more useful metrics than convective available potential energy(CAPE)and Showalter index(SI)during winter.This study further deepens the understanding of the distribution characteristics of winter CG lightning in China,which motivates further research to improve the ability of winter thunderstorm prediction.  相似文献   

汶川地震前龙门山断裂带闭锁程度和滑动亏损分布研究   总被引：16，自引：6，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

赵静  江在森  武艳强  刘晓霞  魏文薪  李强 《地球物理学报》2012,55(9):2963-2972

利用1999—2007期GPS水平速度场数据,采用Defnode负位错反演程序估算了龙门山断裂在汶川地震前的闭锁程度和滑动亏损分布,结合龙门山断裂带附近地表水平应变率场结果,综合分析了震前地壳变形特征.反演结果表明,震前龙门山断裂中北段处于完全闭锁状态,闭锁深度达到21 km(闭锁比例0.99)左右,垂直断层方向的挤压滑动亏损速率约为2.2 mm/a,平行断层方向的右旋滑动亏损速率约为4.6 mm/a.龙门山断裂南段只有地表以下12 km闭锁程度较高(闭锁比例0.99),垂直断层方向滑动亏损速率约为1.4 mm/a,平行断层方向滑动亏损速率约为4.6 mm/a;在12~16 km处闭锁比例约为0.83,垂直断层方向滑动亏损速率约为1.2 mm/a,平行断层方向滑动亏损速率约为3.8 mm/a;在16~21 km处闭锁比例约为0.75,垂直断层方向滑动亏损速率约为1.1 mm/a,平行断层方向滑动亏损速率约为3.5 mm/a.在21~24 km处整条断裂均逐步转变为蠕滑.上述反演结果与区域应变计算获得的龙门山断裂带中北段整体应变积累速率较低、南段应变积累速率较高相一致,均表明中北段闭锁程度高、南段闭锁程度稍低,该特征可以较好地解释汶川地震时从震中向北东向单向破裂现象.  相似文献   

Stream turbidity responses to storm events in a pristine rainforest watershed on the Coral Coast of southern Fiji     

《国际泥沙研究》2016,(4):279-290

On the Coral Coast of Viti Levu Island in Fiji, inadequate knowledge of suspended sediment delivery patterns in small pristine coastal watersheds hinders any future assessment of accelerated erosion in disturbed areas nearby. This study adopts a rainfall–stream turbidity monitoring approach in the Votua Creek, which drains a small, steep but minimally-disturbed coastal rainforest catchment. Storm rainfall characteristics, stream depth and water turbidity were continuously monitored over one complete Fiji wet season from October 2009 to April 2010. The aim was to evaluate whether these parameters provide sufficient information to illustrate basic features of storm–sediment transport responses, in the case of limited stream gauging and very simple sediment rating curves. This is important because Pacific Island nations like Fiji do not have the resources to initiate long-term gauging and sediment sampling pro-grammes across numerous small catchments.
A significant power function demonstrates that turbidity (T) is a suitable proxy for total suspended solids (TSS) for turbidity measurements above 5 NTU, with TSS?0.930T1.111 (r?0.98, Po0.001). Over the study period, 10 individual storms 11.2–120.1 mm in size produced a‘significant turbidity response’ (STR) in the Votua Creek. Rainfall parameters (totals and intensities) showed positive linear relationships (r ? 0.72–0.94) with stream turbidity parameters (mean, maximum, duration), whilst relationships of similar strength (r ? 0.76–0.98) were also derived between stream flow depth and turbidity. This implies that for small rainforest watersheds in Fiji, rainfall parameters offer no substantial disadvantage over flow as predictors of stream sediment responses to major storms. Event-based analysis revealed that negative (anticlockwise) hysteresis is a typical flow–turbidity pattern for STR events. Negative hysteresis is produced when secondary episodes of renewed (heavy) rainfall occur after maximum intensity, in the later phase of storm events. Tropical Cyclone Mick in December 2009 generated the largest flood and the greatest turbidity response (Tmax ? 1021 NTU, Tmean ? 207 NTU). This concurs with earlier work confirming that tropical cyclones are the most important events for sediment transport in Fiji stream networks.  相似文献   

新一代天气雷达（ＣＢ）发射机的检测与维修     

白水成  黄增林  张世昌  李崇福  李成伟 《陕西气象》2010,(1):38-41

利用2006年和2007年太原地区的闪电定位资料,分析了太原地区地闪的日变化、月变化、闪电强度、闪电密度等特征结果表明：太原地区的正地闪比例明显低于我国北方地区的其它城市;总地闪和负地闪的日变化呈典型的双峰变化正闪的双峰特征不明显;太原市辖区北部和阳曲县是闪电频发的中心地带,闪电空间分布中心与冰雹发生源地和影响区对应一致;闪电多发区与地形、气候背景以及城市热岛效应有很大关系。  相似文献