The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marcel van der Perk  Marc F. P. Bierkens 《Journal of Hydrology》1997,200(1-4):307-322

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.  相似文献   

A bivariate meta-Gaussian density for use in hydrology   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

K. S. Kelly  R. Krzysztofowicz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(1):17-31

Convenient bivariate densities found in the literature are often unsuitable for modeling hydrologic variates. They either constrain the range of association between variates, or fix the form of the marginal distributions. The bivariate meta-Gaussian density is constructed by embedding the normal quantile transform of each variate into the Gaussian law. The density can represent a full range of association between variates and admits arbitrarily specified marginal distributions. Modeling and estimation can be decomposed into i) independent analyses of the marginal distributions, and ii) investigation of the dependence structure. Both statistical and judgmental estimation procedures are possible. Some comparisons to recent applications of bivariate densities in the hydrologic literature motivate and illustrate the model.  相似文献   

Predisposition to Induced Seismicity in Some Czech Coal Mines     

K. Holub 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1997,150(3-4):435-450

—Mining-induced seismicity associated with longwall face operations in the Ostrava- Karviná coal mines, Czech Republic, has been investigated in order to establish the conditions leading to a focal zone generation. The study, based on macroseismic and instrumental observations, proved that seismicity is influenced by natural as well as mining conditions. The first group includes the influence of faults, washouts and red beds, while the second one is represented by shaft and/or crosscut safety pillars and various types of remnant pillars. All the cases discussed show that many focal zones are generated in overstressed strata as a consequence of interaction of natural conditions and/or old workings with the active coal face. Received June 18, 1996, accepted March 10, 1997  相似文献   

Numerical modeling of 3-D terrain effect on MT field   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Shizhe Xu  Baiyao Ruan  Hui Zhou  Leshou Chen  Shiwen Xu 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》1997,40(3):269-275

Using the boundary element method, the numerical modeling problem of three-dimensional terrain effect on magnetotelluric (MT) field is solved. This modeling technique can be run on PC in the case of adopting special net division. The result of modeling test for 2-D terrain by this modeling technique is basically coincident with that by 2-D modeling technique, but there is a great difference between the results of 3-D and 2-D modeling for 3-D terrain. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.  相似文献   

Organism relics or kerogens in oils as oil-source rock correlation indicator     

Suping Yao  Jingrong Zhang  Kuili Jin 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》1997,40(3):253-258

Organism relics or kerogens in oils are first obsenred by a confocal laser scanning microscope (CLSM) and a transmission electron microscope (TEM). The complexes of kerogens in oils are characterized by the presence of a great variety of microfossils or macerals. These kerogens in oils are mainly the residues of the original organic substances from which oil formed, and minor kerogens from enclosing rocks enter the oils, therefore, the components and types of the kerogens in crude oils can serve as an indirect indicator of oil-source rock correlation. This method was applied to Jurassic oils in the Junggar Basin and the Turpan-Hami Basin, and there are two types of the kerogens in oils: one containing a lot of macerals from terrestrial plants may derive from coals, and the other, characterized by a high content of microscopic algae, fungus spores and Acritarch, may originate from Permian organic matter. In addition, the reflectance of the vitrodetrinites in oils can be used as an indicator of oil-source rock correlation.  相似文献   

三维分块倾斜界面的反演及其应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

赖晓玲  郑需要  张先康 《地震工程学报》1997,19(3):63-68

介绍了利用反射波走时反演介质层速度和包含直立断层的三维界面的计算方法．对各层界面利用多个倾斜或平界面方程来描述．给出了数值计算实例．结果表明，反演解与真模型很接近，说明计算方法是有效的．利用该方法处理了唐山地震区的ＰｍＰ反射波资料，获得了该区域莫霍界面的三维分块形态．唐山附近莫霍界面错断与该区域１９７６年唐山地震及一系列余震的发生有密切的联系．  相似文献   

τ-P域地震资料三维叠前深度偏移及其实用算法   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

贺振华  陈志文 《地球物理学报》1997,40(2):257-264

本文提出了在τ-P域实现三维叠前深度偏移的计算方法，该方法把地震道集由时-空域变换到τ-P域，然后对共P数据体进行相移或相移加插值偏移，将偏移后的各共P数据体叠加得到叠前深度偏移结果．该算法能够实现陡倾地层的正确归位，降低偏移处理维数，减少计算机内存需求，易于并行处理，但是计算量和所花费的计算机时间仍然很大．为此我们又提出了针对目的层的分时（层）偏移方法，由于只考虑目的层，可节省大量的计算时间．文中以二维实际地震资料及三维数值模型资料的处理说明了上述方法的可行性与有效性．  相似文献   

地震预测研究与展望   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

陈棋福  陈颙  李娟  陈龙生 《地球物理学报》1997,40(Z1):386-395

概要介绍了近年来国际上就地震预测所展开的争论，分析了VAN方法所反映的地震前兆研究动向；就地震前兆观测与数据资料库建设、地震前兆的统计分析、地震的动力学预测、地震预测算法的发展等方面，论述了国际地震预测研究的进展；并概略地介绍了中国的地震预测研究进展．  相似文献   

扬子板块石炭纪沉积层序及其全球性对比研究   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：8  

李儒峰  刘本培 《沉积学报》1997,15(3):23-28

通过对石炭纪扬子板块内部、扬子板块与华北板块及扬子板块与欧美板块之间的不同级别沉积层序对比研究，编制了扬子板块、华北板块和欧美板块石炭纪的海平面变化曲线。在扬子板块内部，上、下扬子区２级沉积层序可以进行对比，但下扬子区海进和海岸上超滞后于上扬子区，由于资料的限制，３级沉积层序的对比还有困难；华北板块Ｆｕｓｕｌｉｎａ－Ｆｕｓｕｌｉｎｅｌａ带内的一个３级沉积层序和Ｔｒｉｔｉｃｉｔｅｓ－Ｐｅｕｄｏｓｃｈｗａｇｅｒｉｎａ带内的四个３级沉积层序，可以和扬子板块同期的３级沉积层序对比；扬子板块和北美中大陆不仅３级沉积层序可以对比，而且在晚石炭世Ｇｚｈｅｌｉａｎ期４级沉积层序也可以进行对比，但由于它们大地构造背景的差异，导致沉积层序组成内容的不同。上述对比结果被认为是冰川型全球海平面变化所形成全球沉积记录同时性的证据。并以冰期与非冰期、联合古陆形成前后等方面对相同板块内和不同板块间沉积层序的数量和级别的异同原因进行了探讨，认为石炭纪冈瓦纳大陆冰川消长是控制全球海平面变化的主要因素，因此，沉积层序应具全球同时性和可对比性，但局部沉积条件差异也将影响沉积层序组成。  相似文献   

普通克里格法在矿产储量计算中的应用   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9  

邢红星  琚太忠 《地质与勘探》1997,33(4):46-51

普通克里格法能充分利用样品信息，有效地提高块段平均品位及矿产储量精度。以刁泉银铜矿为实例，介绍了该方法的理论和方法应用以及储量计算流程图。  相似文献