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21.
基于AGA的SVM需水预测模型研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
需水预测是一个由城市人口、工业水平、社会经济水平共同作用的多因素、多层次的复杂非线性系统.其结果将直接影响受区域水资源承载力约束的产业结构、布局形态等决策.作为一种集中参数预报方法,支持向量机方法具有对未来样本的较好的泛化性能,对于这类资料缺乏、系统结构尚欠清晰的问题可以取得较好的模拟和预测结果.基于此,本文将支持向量机方法引入需水预测领域,建立了需水预测支持向量机模型.同时,本文将加速遗传算法和支持向量机方法耦合起来,构造了支持向量机模型参数的自适应优化算法.模型在珠海市的应用实例表明:与简单遗传算法比较,AGA的模型参数寻优效率更高;与BP神经网络模型相比,SVM模型较好地解决了小样本、经验性等问题,并取得了较高的预测精度. 相似文献
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In this study, we investigate two internal wave generation methods in numerical modeling of time-dependent equations for water wave propagation, i.e., delta source function method and source term addition method, the latter of which has been called the line source method in literatures. We derive delta source functions for the Boussinesq-type equations and extended mild-slope equations. By applying the fractional step splitting method, we show that the delta source function method is equivalent to the source term addition method employing the energy velocity. This suggests that the energy velocity should be used rather than the phase velocity for the transport of incident wave energy in the source term addition method. Finally, the performance of the delta source function method is verified by accurately generating nonlinear cnoidal waves as well as linear waves for horizontally one-dimensional cases. 相似文献
24.
We develop techniques of numerical wave generation in the time-dependent extended mild-slope equations of Suh et al. [1997. Time-dependent equations for wave propagation on rapidly varying topography. Coastal Engineering 32, 91–117] and Lee et al. [2003. Extended mild-slope equation for random waves. Coastal Engineering 48, 277–287] for random waves using a source function method. Numerical results for both regular and irregular waves in one and two horizontal dimensions show that the wave heights and the frequency spectra are properly reproduced. The waves that pass through the wave generation region do not cause any numerical disturbances, showing usefulness of the source function method in avoiding re-reflection problems at the offshore boundary. 相似文献
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26.
Nonlinear interactions between large waves and freely floating bodies are investigated by a 2D fully nonlinear numerical wave tank (NWT). The fully nonlinear 2D NWT is developed based on the potential theory, MEL/material-node time-marching approach, and boundary element method (BEM). A robust and stable 4th-order Runge–Kutta fully updated time-integration scheme is used with regriding (every time step) and smoothing (every five steps). A special φn-η type numerical beach on the free surface is developed to minimize wave reflection from end-wall and wave maker. The acceleration-potential formulation and direct mode-decomposition method are used for calculating the time derivative of velocity potential. The indirect mode-decomposition method is also independently developed for cross-checking. The present fully nonlinear simulations for a 2D freely floating barge are compared with the corresponding linear results, Nojiri and Murayama’s (Trans. West-Jpn. Soc. Nav. Archit. 51 (1975)) experimental results, and Tanizawa and Minami’s (Abstract for the 6th Symposium on Nonlinear and Free-surface Flow, 1998) fully nonlinear simulation results. It is shown that the fully nonlinear results converge to the corresponding linear results as incident wave heights decrease. A noticeable discrepancy between linear and fully nonlinear simulations is observed near the resonance area, where the second and third harmonic sway forces are even bigger than the first harmonic component causing highly nonlinear features in sway time series. The surprisingly large second harmonic heave forces in short waves are also successfully reproduced. The fully updated time-marching scheme is found to be much more robust than the frozen-coefficient method in fully nonlinear simulations with floating bodies. To compare the role of free-surface and body-surface nonlinearities, the body-nonlinear-only case with linearized free-surface condition was separately developed and simulated. 相似文献
27.
本文探讨东海区近海强风预报模式,首先介绍建立预报模式的思路和步骤,及使用说明,为了验证强风预报模式和判别条件,用1986、1987上日本传真天气图进行试报,准确和基本准确度为91.1%,并给出了1989、1995年随船试验预报结果,准确和基本准确率为90%以上。 相似文献
28.
太湖表面定振波的数值计算和最大熵谱分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用水动力学方程对太湖表面的定振波进行计算,算得定振波周期约为452min,另外,利用1992年8月29-31日在太湖西山观测到的水位资料,采用最大熵谱法,分析太湖表面的定振波,得周期值约为450min。计算和分析的周期值基本吻合,取熵谱分析结果得太湖表面的单节点定振波周期值为450min。 相似文献
29.
贡湖水质富营养化综合评价及初步预测 总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13
对1996年7月贡湖三次调查资料进行的水质和富营养化现状综合评价显示:贡湖水质以Ⅲ-Ⅳ类为主,局部已出发V类,凯氏氮,非离子氨和总磷为主要污染物;营养型以中营养和中富营养类型分布面积较广。 相似文献
30.
Estuary/ocean exchange and tidal mixing in a Gulf of Maine Estuary: A Lagrangian modeling study 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Ata Bilgili Jeffrey A. Proehl Daniel R. Lynch Keston W. Smith M. Robinson Swift 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,65(4):607-624
A Lagrangian particle method embedded within a 2-D finite element code, is used to study the transport and ocean–estuary exchange processes in the well-mixed Great Bay Estuarine System in New Hampshire, USA. The 2-D finite element model, driven by residual, semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal constituents, includes the effects of wetting and drying of estuarine mud flats through the use of a porous medium transport module. The particle method includes tidal advection, plus a random walk model in the horizontal that simulates sub-grid scale turbulent transport processes. Our approach involves instantaneous, massive [O(500,000)] particle releases that enable the quantification of ocean–estuary and inter-bay exchanges in a Markovian framework. The effects of the release time, spring–neap cycle, riverine discharge and diffusion strength on the intra-estuary and estuary–ocean exchange are also investigated.The results show a rather dynamic interaction between the ocean and the estuary with a fraction of the exiting particles being caught up in the Gulf of Maine Coastal Current and swept away. Three somewhat different estimates of estuarine residence time are calculated to provide complementary views of estuary flushing. Maps of residence time versus release location uncover a strong spatial dependency of residence time within the estuary that has very important ramifications for local water quality. Simulations with and without the turbulent random walk show that the combined effect of advective shear and turbulent diffusion is very effective at spreading particles throughout the estuary relatively quickly, even at low (1 m2/s) diffusivity. The results presented here show that a first-order Markov Chain approach has applicability and a high potential for improving our understanding of the mixing processes in estuaries. 相似文献