基于投入产出模型的大型活动对举办地的经济影响——以广交会为例   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

罗秋菊  庞嘉文  靳文敏 《地理学报》2011,66(4):487-503

事件活动的经济影响评估是国外近20 年来的研究热点,然而近年来遭到很多质疑和争论,国内在该领域的理论和实证研究仍处于起步阶段。一年两届的广交会对举办城市具有持续的深远影响,是城市大型活动的典范。本研究以104 与105 届广交会为案例,采用问卷调查及深度访谈法收集广交会所有参与者的消费支出与结构,并运用投入产出模型评估广交会对广州市间接经济影响。结论表明城市定期举办的大型商务活动对举办地的许多产业部门具有很强的拉动效应,对当地经济产生明显的持续性的经济效应;一届广交会对广州市的直接与间接效应合计163.24 亿元,其中直接经济效应55.26 亿元,间接经济效应为107.98 亿元,直接与间接效应之比为1:1.95;2008 年104 届广交会的直接与间接效应总和占广州市全年GDP的1.98%;参与者对广州的经济拉动作用依次为采购商、参展企业、参展个人、承办方、交易团。此外,本文还特别就研究结论存有高估或低估倾向进行了探究。  相似文献   

2008年中国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害网络建模及演化机制研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李双双  杨赛霓  刘宪锋  刘焱序 《地理研究》2015,34(10):1887-1896

基于中国0.5°×0.5°逐日气温和降水格网数据,利用复杂网络分析方法,对2008年南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害综合致灾过程进行再认识,综合分析低温雨雪冰冻灾害在时空维度的网络特性。结果表明：2008年南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害是典型的多灾种叠加事件,低温与雨雪灾害叠加放大了致灾因子的危险性;基础设施设防水平低与春运高峰叠加增大了承灾体的脆弱性;低山丘陵区与人口聚集区叠加降低了孕灾环境的稳定性。低温冰冻雨雪灾害具有小世界特征和核心—边缘结构,具体表现为：在空间打击上具有集聚性,影响区域相对集中;在时间打击上具有连续性,间隔1天事件相对较少。在研究方法上,复杂网络是一种有效分析多灾种叠加的方法,可以进一步挖掘自然灾害的时空演化信息。  相似文献   

气候变化与人体健康   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

周晓农 《气候变化研究进展》2010,6(4):235-240

综述了气候变化与人类健康的关系,着重分析了气候变化对人体健康影响的主要方面与途径、适应气候变化的主要措施,提出了气候变化与人体健康关系研究中的科学问题及优先研究领域。并从国家层面上探讨了如何加强能力建设与制度建设等保障措施。  相似文献   

近60年来厄尔尼诺事件对广东省旱灾的影响   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

唐晓春  袁中友 《地理研究》2010,29(11):1932-1939

厄尔尼诺是影响全球的大尺度气候现象,对广东省的气候也有影响。在对厄尔尼诺事件进行系统分类研究的基础上,利用X²检验和条件概率检验的方法,对近60年来厄尔尼诺事件与广东省旱灾的关系进行研究,结果表明:广东省的旱灾和厄尔尼诺关系较为密切,23次旱灾,有17次和厄尔尼诺事件有关。研究还发现厄尔尼诺事件的强度、发生的季节以及持续的时间与广东省旱灾的发生有一定关系:中等及强厄尔尼诺事件往往会导致广东省旱灾的发生;春季和秋季发生的厄尔尼诺事件,广东省不易发生旱灾,而夏季发生的厄尔尼诺事件则广东省易发生旱灾; 发生连续性的厄尔尼诺事件时,广东省易发生旱灾。  相似文献   

Timing and prediction of climate change and hydrological impacts: periodicity in natural variations     

Y. Jeffrey Yang  James A. Goodrich 《Environmental Geology》2009,57(5):1065-1078

Hydrological impacts from climate change are of principal interest to water resource policy-makers and practicing engineers. Predictive climatic models have been extensively investigated to quantify the impacts. Palaeoclmatic investigations, on the other hand, show unequivocal and strong periodicity of climate variations in proxy evidence. Yet how to use the periodicity in future hydroclimatic timing and forecasting has received less attention. This paper examines the periodicity in Pleistocene–Holocene glacial–interglacial events and in modern precipitation records, and discusses a way in which the periodicity is used for hydroclimatic predictions. The analysis, based on published CO₂, ΔT (δ²H) and δ¹⁸O proxy data of polar ice cores and deep oceanic benthic fossils, shows a periodicity in a ~100, ~40 or 25 kyear duration consistent with Milankovitch orbital regulations during the glacial–interglacial periods. On a fine time scale, millennium and multi-decadal periodicity is observed in high-resolution proxy variations of Greenland ice cores and in instrumental precipitation records of the contiguous USA. A basic periodicity of decadal and multi-decadal changes in ~20 and ~10–15 year duration is apparent in wavelet frequency analysis of both ice core proxy and precipitation data. While the kyear-scale periodicity is found of global prevalence, the millennium and decadal variations vary in space and are region-specific. Based on these findings, a generalized time-downscaling hierarchy of periodicity is proposed as a potential approach for timing and forecasting future hydroclimatic conditions at a resolution relevant to the water resources engineering and management.  相似文献   

A Kaapvaal craton debate: Nucleus of an early small supercontinent or affected by an enhanced accretion event?   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Patrick G. Eriksson  Santanu Banerjee  David R. Nelson  Martin J. Rigby  Octavian Catuneanu  Subir Sarkar  R. James Roberts  Dmitry Ruban  Mtimkulu N. Mtimkulu  P.V. Sunder Raju 《Gondwana Research》2009,15(3-4):354-372

Incorporation of the Kaapvaal craton within a speculative Neoarchaean–Palaeoproterozoic supercontinent has long been debated, and this idea provides a potential solution to solving the apparently enigmatic provenance of the huge quantities of gold within the famous Witwatersrand auriferous deposits of Kaapvaal. Within a framework of a postulated Neoarchaean “Kenorland” (“northern”; present-day reference) supercontinent, we examine possible “southern” cratons that may have been contiguous with Kaapvaal: Pilbara, Zimbabwe, Dharwar, São Francisco, Amazon, Congo. Brief reviews of their basic geology and inferred evolution in syn-Witwatersrand basin times (c. 3.1–2.8 Ga) show no obvious support for any such supercontinental amalgamations. An alternative idea to explain a measure of gross similarity amongst several Neoarchaean cratons is through global events, such as a c. 3125–3000 Ma cratonic-scale erosive event interpreted for both Pilbara and Kaapvaal, and a much more widespread magmatic event at c. 2760–2680 Ma. We postulate that a global superplume event at c. 3.0 Ga included a plume beneath the Kaapvaal cratonic nucleus, thus halting any subduction around that terrane due to the thermal anomaly. Such a speculative global magmatic event is assumed to have enhanced production of juvenile oceanic crust at mid-ocean ridges, including those “offshore” of the thermally elevated Kaapvaal nucleus. Intra-oceanic obduction complexes may have built up fairly rapidly under such conditions, globally, and once the plume event had abated, “normal” plate tectonics would have resulted in composite (greenstone-tonalite, possibly also including granite) terranes accreting with nuclei such as Kaapvaal. This enhanced plume-related cratonic growth can be seen as a rapid accretion event. Formation of the envisaged ophiolite complexes possibly encompassed deformation-related first-order concentration of gold, and once accretion occurred around Kaapvaal's nucleus, from north and west (present-day frame of reference), a second-order (deformation-related) gold concentration may have resulted. The third order of gold concentration would logically have occurred once placer systems reworked detritus derived from the orogens along the N and W margins of Kaapvaal. Such conditions and placer gold deposits are known from many Neoarchaean cratons. The initial source of gold was presumably from the much hotter Mesoarchaean mantle and may have been related to major changes in Earth's tectonic regime at c. 3.0 Ga. The unique nature of Kaapvaal is probably its early stabilization, enabling formation of a complex flexural foreland basin system, in which vast quantities of placer sediments and heavy minerals could be deposited, and preserved from younger denudation through a unique post-Witwatersrand history.  相似文献   

Influence of interaction between small asperities on various types of slow earthquakes in a 3-D simulation for a subduction plate boundary   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Keisuke Ariyoshi  Takane Hori  Jean-Paul Ampuero  Yoshiyuki Kaneda  Toru Matsuzawa  Ryota Hino  Akira Hasegawa 《Gondwana Research》2009,16(3-4):534-544

Recently, the occurrence of slow earthquakes such as low-frequency earthquakes and very low-frequency earthquakes have been recognized at depths of about 30 km in southwest Japan and Cascadia. These slow earthquakes occur sometimes in isolation and sometimes break into chain-reaction, producing tremor that migrates at a speed of about 5–15 km/day and suggesting a strong interaction among nearby small asperities. In this study, we formulate a 3-D subduction plate boundary model with two types of small asperities chained along the trench at the depth of 30 km. Our simulation succeeds in representing various types of slow earthquakes including low-frequency earthquakes and rapid slip velocity in the same asperity, and indicates that interaction between asperities may cause the very low-frequency earthquakes. Our simulation also shows chain reaction along trench with propagation speed that can be made consistent with observations by adjusting model parameters, which suggests that the interactions also explain the observed migration of slow earthquakes.  相似文献   

Field observations of the June 30, 2001 debris flow at Acquabona (Dolomites, Italy)   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Pia Rosella Tecca  Rinaldo Genevois 《Landslides》2009,6(1):39-45

On June 30, 2001, a debris flow occurred in the Acquabona Creek, a small catchment of the Eastern Dolomites, Italy. This debris flow originated shortly after an intense rainstorm, characterised by a peak intensity of 8.6 mm per 10 min; it transported a total volume of 30,000 m³, consisting of poorly sorted gravely sand with boulders up to 3 m in diameter. The sediment erosion yield rate reached as high as 20 m³/m. In order to verify the accuracy of the field measurements, the total volume of debris deposits have was calculated using three different topographic measurement techniques: 3D laser scanning, terrestrial stereo-photogrammetry survey and total topographic station survey. Data collected so far show that no debris flow has occurred at Acquabona with a rainfall intensity lower than 4.6 mm per 10 min. Channel cross section measurements indicate that debris flow velocity ranges from 2.0 to 7.2 m/s along the lower flow channel and peak discharge ranges between 22 and 300 m³/s. Field estimates of the rheological properties indicate a yield strength ranging from 2,088 to 5,313 Pa and Bingham viscosity between 70 and 337 Pa · s. It is not still possible to identify a rainfall intensity and amount threshold for debris flow triggering, but the data so far collected emphasise that debris flows do not occur with a rainfall intensity lower than 4.6 mm per 10 min.  相似文献   

中高层大气瞬态发光事件（TLEs）及可能的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

郄秀书  吕达仁  卞建春  杨静 《地球科学进展》2009,24(3):286-296

中高层大气瞬态发光事件（TLEs）是发生于活跃雷暴上空平流层和中间层的一类快速大气放电现象。根据光辐射的形态特征和发生位置的不同,可将已发现的TLEs归纳为4类：由电离层快速向下发展的Red Sprites(又称红色精灵,红闪);由雷暴云顶部向上发展的Blue Jets（又称蓝色喷流,蓝激流）;由闪电激发的低电离层区域的圆环状放电ELVEs(Emissions of Light and VLF perturbation due to EMP Sources,又称光辐射和EMP源引起的甚低频扰动) 和由云顶向电离层快速向上发展的Gigantic Jets(又称巨大喷流)。对已有的TLEs现象学和形态特征的观测事实以及物理机制和理论研究等进行了回顾,讨论了TLEs对平流层和中间层大气以及电离层的可能影响,并提出了目前在TLEs理论方面尚未解决的问题,指出了进一步观测和理论研究的必要性。  相似文献   

晚中生代地球表层重大地质事件的陆地环境剧变与生物群演替响应   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

柳永清  旷红伟  姬书安  吕君昌  刘燕学  江小均  彭楠  陈铭培  李家华 《地学前缘》2009,16(5)

晚中生代时期华北东北部发育燕辽生物群、热河生物群和阜新生物群陆地生物群。它们的快速演变过程和华北克拉通上同时期发育的岩石圈减薄、大面积强烈岩浆活动、变质核杂岩及伴随的伸展盆地等地球表层重大地质事件并行发生,表现着地壳表层系统圈层间的相互作用和响应。生物群的繁盛与灭绝与地球表层大规模岩浆-火山活动(髫髻山组—张家口组和大北沟组—义县组)发育时代高度协同一致。地球表层重大地质事件直接或间接地控制或改造着地球表层古地理和古生态环境,生物群只得调整自身去适应环境和生态背景的改变。火山-岩浆活动改变着地质-生态环境,生物群都紧密联系多期次火山-岩浆活动,化石也都被埋葬在沉积-火山碎屑岩中。华北克拉通破坏重大地质事件发生响应于全球变化和统一地球表层系统。盆地沉积充填序列、特殊陆相环境沉积建造、特殊环境沉积物等记录了响应的古地理、古环境变化与响应。陆地生物群分布、演化、更替与精确定年,脊椎-无脊椎生物(化石)埋葬特征,生物演化速率、消长关系和生物群(组合)更替的形式和性质,以及脊椎动物骨骼、牙齿的常量、微量元素、H-B-C-N-O-S和C-O-Sr等地球化学特征的研究可以恢复和重建古地理、古生态环境和古生态系统。  相似文献