气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

赵东升  吴绍洪 《地理学报》2013,68(5):602-610

本研究以动态植被模型LPJ 为主要工具,以区域气候模式工具PRECIS 产生的A2、B2和A1B情景气候数据为输入,模拟了未来气候变化下中国自然生态系统的变化状况,应用脆弱性评价模型,评估中国自然生态系统响应未来气候变化的脆弱性。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下中国东部地区脆弱程度呈上升趋势,西部地区呈下降趋势,但总体上,中国自然生态系统的脆弱性格局没有大的变化,仍呈现西高东低、北高南低的特点。受气候变化影响严重的地区是东北和华北地区,而青藏高原区南部和西北干旱区受气候变化影响,脆弱程度明显减轻。气候变化情景下的近期气候变化对我国生态系统的影响不大,但中、远期气候变化对生态系统的负面影响较大,特别是在自然条件相对较好的东部地区,脆弱区面积增加较多。  相似文献   

10个CMIP5模式预估中亚地区未来50 a降水时空变化特征          下载免费PDF全文

吴昊旻  黄安宁  何清  赵勇 《干旱区地理》2013,36(4):669-680

利用CRU月降水资料首先对参与IPCC第五次评估报告（IPCC AR5）的10个CMIP5模式对1951-2005年中亚地区年降水气候平均态、年际变率以及线性趋势等特征参数的模拟能力进行了系统评估,并选取具有较好模拟性能模式的未来预估试验结果作多模式集合平均预估未来50 a（2011-2060年）中亚地区在不同代表性浓度路径下降水量各特征参数的空间分布特征,结果表明：多数模式能够模拟出中亚地区年降水气候平均态、年际变率以及线性趋势的空间分布特征,同时发现中亚地区年降水量在过去50 a整体以轻微增加为主,趋势不显著。根据定量评估结果,从10个模式中选取4个具有较好模拟性能的模式结果做集合平均,同时利用历史回报试验数据进行检验,发现集合平均的模拟结果无论在量级还是高、低值中心的位置和范围与CRU资料非常接近。未来预估结果表明4种排放情景下4模式集合平均的中亚年降水在未来50 a增加较为明显,尤其在中国新疆南部（由低值区转变为高值区）。总体来看,未来50 a中亚降水增加趋势随着RCPs的增加而增加,且降水增加显著的区域随着RCPs的增加而明显增大。  相似文献   

Multivariate skew-t approach to the design of accumulation risk scenarios for the flooding hazard     

Tatiana Ghizzoni  Giorgio Roth  Roberto Rudari 《Advances in water resources》2010

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Hydrological effects of water management measures in the Dovinė River basin,Lithuania     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):363-374

Abstract

Lake ?uvintas, located in southern Lithuania in the Dovin? River basin, is one of the largest lakes and oldest nature reserves in the country. However, changes in the hydrology of the Dovin? River basin, caused by large-scale land reclamation and water management works carried out in the 20th century, have resulted in a significant decrease in the biodiversity of the lake and surrounding wetlands. In order to halt the ongoing deterioration of the lake and wetlands, solutions have to be found at the basin level. Using the SIMGRO model, various measures were therefore analysed to evaluate their impact on the water management in the Dovin? River basin. The results show that it is impossible to fully restore the water dynamics and flow pattern in the Dovin? River to their original state. However, a good measure for improving the hydrological conditions is to block drainage ditches and remove bushes and trees from the wetlands.  相似文献   

城市模拟目标的3维热辐射方向性模型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

马伟  陈云浩  占文凤  周纪 《遥感学报》2013,17(1):62-76

以城市3维结构场景为研究目标,考虑其光影遮蔽关系,模拟传感器视场内目标的可见表面,实现视场尺度内城市模拟目标方向亮温的准确模拟。利用地面试验观测数据对3维热辐射方向性模型进行验证。结果表明,该模型对城市3维结构目标的方向亮温具有较好的模拟精度,均方根误差为0.7K,能够描述微观尺度下城市3维模拟目标的热辐射方向性。利用该热辐射方向性模型对城市区域物理模型的方向亮温进行模拟,发现城市区域物理模型热辐射存在显著的方向差异,并伴有热点效应产生。  相似文献   

Forward simulation and sensitivity analysis of run-out scenarios using MassMov2D at the Trafoi rockslide (South Tyrol,Italy)     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(4):240-249

This paper presents forward simulation with MassMov2D code and sensitivity analysis of run out resulting from different scenarios of potential failure of a 40 million m³ active rockslide hanging above the village of Trafoi, in South Tyrol (Italy). Five scenarios of potential failure zones were identified, with the larger one being the failure of the entire rock slide. Forward simulations showed that the consequences for the Trafoi village would be potentially destructive. A parametric sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to increase the significance of risk assessment. Results obtained by varying friction and turbulent coefficients showed quite unequivocally that although the variability of the run out might be quite large it does not change risk scenarios significantly except in the smaller case of failure. This confirms the usefulness of forward simulations even if they might be affected by uncertainties related to the impossibility to retrieve optimised parameters.  相似文献   

黄河流域未来气候-水文变化的模拟研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

康丽莉  LEUNG L Ruby  柳春  王守荣 《气象学报》2015,73(2):382-393

将大尺度半分布式水文模型VIC应用到黄河上中游流域(花园口水文断面以上),并利用区域气候模式RegCM4.0单向嵌套全球气候模式BCC_CSM1.1,动力降尺度到黄河流域的模拟结果驱动VIC模型,开展在新的典型浓度路径下(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)黄河流域未来气候和水文变化的离线模拟。模拟结果显示,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下,黄河流域21世纪平均地表气温相对于1971—2000年均呈显著上升趋势,2019—2048年上升1.2—1.5℃,2069—2098年上升2.19—3.9℃。未来年平均降水量有微弱的增大,2019—2048年增幅为6%左右,2069—2098年增幅为1.4%—5.6%。未来蒸发量增大明显,2069—2098年年平均蒸发量最大可增加9.6%。2019—2048年花园口水文站的年平均径流量增大3.4%—7.4%,2069—2098年年平均径流量转为减少,减幅为3.3%—5.3%。黄河上游地区未来气候和水文变化趋势与黄河流域基本一致,但未来年径流量变幅低于黄河流域,相对比较稳定。  相似文献   

Development of a seismic damage and loss scenario for contemporary and historical buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Andreas J. Kappos  Georgios Panagopoulos  Gregorios G. Penelis 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2008,28(10-11):836

The methodologies used in Greece for estimating direct losses in both reinforced concrete (R/C) and masonry buildings (also including monuments) are summarised, the critical issue of data collection is addressed, and practical solutions that have been tried are discussed. The development of a seismic risk scenario for contemporary and historical buildings in Thessaloniki is then presented and some key results are given, including the expected geographical distribution of building damage (due to the scenario earthquake) in the municipality of Thessaloniki; damage is described both in structural and in economic terms.  相似文献   

Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius     

G. Zuccaro  F. Cacace  R.J.S. Spence  P.J. Baxter 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2^a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837–845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634–647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15–30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final scenario are highlighted. The results show the high sensitivity of hazard combinations in time and space distribution and address how to mitigate building vulnerability to subsequent eruptive phenomena [Baxter, P., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., 2008-this issue. Risk mitigation and emergency measures at Vesuvius].  相似文献   

中国农业氧化亚氮排放情景研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李迎春  林而达  熊伟 《地理科学进展》2009,28(4)

采用国际应用系统分析研究所的"牲畜和粮食产量动态模型",模拟出2000-2030年间中国粮食和牲畜的数量和需求量的地理分布,然后应用GAINS模型预测我国未来农业N2O排放量。结果显示,2000年我国农业N2O排放量为1533ktN2O,到2030年将增加到2000ktN2O左右,增长31%;农田N2O排放占农业N2O总排放量的80%,2030年农田N2O的排放量比2000年增长37%。由于活动水平数据的模拟结果不同,各情景的N2O排放量不同,其中INMIC_低情景中N2O的排放量稍高于中、高排放情景。我国农业N2O排放主要集中在山东、河南、四川、河北,江苏、湖南、云南、安徽等省,到2030年,黑龙江、内蒙古、新疆、云南和湖南五省的N2O增加量在30ktN2O以上。硝化抑制剂作为N2O的减排措施,从2015年开始实施,减排效率由4%上升到16%。采用IPCC默认排放因子会高估我国农田N2O排放。  相似文献