The Tau Model for Data Redundancy and Information Combination in Earth Sciences: Theory and Application   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Sunderrajan Krishnan 《Mathematical Geosciences》2008,40(6):705-727

Many decision-making processes in the Earth sciences require the combination of multiple data originating from diverse sources. These data are often indirect and uncertain, and their combination would call for a probabilistic approach. These data are also partially redundant with each other or with all others taken jointly. This overlap in information arises due to a variety of reasons—because the data arises from the same geology, because they originate from the same location or the same measurement device, etc. The proposed tau model combines partially redundant data, each taking the form of a prior probability for the event being assessed to occur given that single datum. The parameters of that tau model measure the additional contribution brought by any single datum over that of all previously considered data; they are data sequence-dependent and also data value-dependent. Data redundancy depends on the sequence in which the data is considered and also on the data values themselves. However, for a given sequence, averaging the tau model parameters over all possible data values leads to exact analytical expressions and corresponding approximations and inference avenues. Information on multiple-point connectivity of permeability arrives from core data, well-test data and seismic data which are defined over varying supports with complex redundancy between these information sources. In order to compute these tau weights for determining connectivity, one needs a model of data redundancy, here expressed as a vectorial training image (Ti) constructed using a prior conceptual knowledge of geology and the physics of data measurement. From such a vectorial Ti, the tau weights can be computed exactly. Neglecting data redundancy leads to an over-compounding of individual data information and the possible risk of making extreme decisions.  相似文献   

Change of Support for Estimating Local Block Grade Distributions     

Xavier Emery 《Mathematical Geosciences》2008,40(6):671-688

An important aspect in mineral resource evaluation is the reduction of variance when post-processing the grade distributions defined on the support (volume) of the available data into distributions defined on the support of the proposed selective mining units. Although the volume-variance relationship is well understood for the estimation of global grade distributions, it is still an unsolved issue for local estimation studies based on non-parametric geostatistical methods, such as indicator kriging, for which the support correction is not inherent to the method. To clarify this relationship, the local change of support problem is examined in the scope of two parametric models (multi-Gaussian and discrete Gaussian models). It is shown that the variance reduction factor between point and block-support local distributions depends on the block being considered and is less than the global variance reduction factor. As a consequence, post-processing the local point-support grade distributions on the basis of the latter systematically understates the importance of the change of support at the local scale and makes selective mining appear more economically attractive than it really is. In the light of these results, a methodology is proposed to post-process the local point-support distributions obtained via non-parametric (indicator) methods into block-support distributions. An application to simulated data indicates that this methodology provides an accurate estimation at the block support when dealing with diffusion-type random fields.  相似文献   

浅谈太湖流域饮用水安全与地下水保护     

肖裕生  钟华平  谢石连 《上海国土资源》2008,(1):18-20,43

太湖流域经济发达,人口稠密,如管理不善将引发水污染严重、水环境恶化和水质型缺水等水问题,对饮用水安全构成威胁。因此,地下水在保障太湖流域饮用水安全中的作用就显得特别重要,提出了太湖流域地下水保护的对策措施。  相似文献   

数值模拟技术在海坨子油田开发调整研究中的应用     

翟雨阳  刘钦甫  张立德  唐勇  刘振兴 《上海国土资源》2008,(2):47-50

讨论分析数值模拟技术在海坨子油田开发调整研究中的思路和方法,采用美国Landmark公司VIP2003．4版本数值模拟软件包进行模拟研究,通过参数准备,静、动态拟合,模拟出海坨子油田海S9—11井组1—9砂组各小层剩余储量大小及不同阶段流体饱和度分布,结合可视化技术形象描述了海坨子油田剩余油变化规律及潜力区,在此基础上预测不同井网加密方式开发指标,并优选出最佳方案,为海坨子油田下步开发调整提供了重要依据,取得了较好的效果。  相似文献   

震灾保险研究中的软科学问题     

巫孟还  徐蓓蕾 《国际地震动态》1996,(3):18-21

震灾保险研究融会着自然科学与社会科学的紧密结合和相互渗透,基于这一认识,本文联系震灾保险的社会属性,分析并指出这一险种的非强制性质;保护应用的权益与责任;对社会不规范投保行为的制约;正确理解“与国际惯例接轨”、地震系统的协作模式、政府部门的政策导向等等带有根本性的问题,以启示人们把握研究的大方向,从而加快我国该项研究的实用化进程。  相似文献   

The dynamics and thermodynamics of large ash flows   总被引：6，自引：6，他引：0  

Marcus I. Bursik  Andrew W. Woods 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1996,58(2-3):175-193

 Ash flow deposits, containing up to 1000 km³ of material, have been produced by some of the largest volcanic eruptions known. Ash flows propagate several tens of kilometres from their source vents, produce extensive blankets of ash and are able to surmount topographic barriers hundreds of metres high. We present and test a new model of the motion of such flows as they propagate over a near horizontal surface from a collapsing fountain above a volcanic vent. The model predicts that for a given eruption rate, either a slow (10–100 m/s) and deep (1000–3000 m) subcritical flow or a fast (100–200 m/s) and shallow (500–1000 m) supercritical flow may develop. Subcritical ash flows propagate with a nearly constant volume flux, whereas supercritical flows entrain air and become progressively more voluminous. The run-out distance of such ash flows is controlled largely by the mass of air mixed into the collapsing fountain, the degree of fragmentation and the associated rate of loss of material into an underlying concentrated depositional system, and the mass eruption rate. However, in supercritical flows, the continued entrainment of air exerts a further important control on the flow evolution. Model predictions show that the run-out distance decreases with the mass of air entrained into the flow. Also, the mass of ash which may ascend from the flow into a buoyant coignimbrite cloud increases as more air is entrained into the flow. As a result, supercritical ash flows typically have shorter runout distances and more ash is elutriated into the associated coignimbrite eruption columns. We also show that one-dimensional, channellized ash flows typically propagate further than their radially spreading counterparts. As a Plinian eruption proceeds, the erupted mass flux often increases, leading to column collapse and the formation of pumiceous ash flows. Near the critical conditions for eruption column collapse, the flows are shed from high fountains which entrain large quantities of air per unit mass. Our model suggests that this will lead to relatively short ash flows with much of the erupted material being elutriated into the coignimbrite column. However, if the mass flux subseqently increases, then less air per unit mass is entrained into the collapsing fountain, and progressively larger flows, which propagate further from the vent, will develop. Our model is consistent with observations of a number of pyroclastic flow deposits, including the 1912 eruption of Katmai and the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. The model suggests that many extensive flow sheets were emplaced from eruptions with mass fluxes of 10⁹–10¹⁰ kg/s over periods of 10³–10⁵ s, and that some indicators of flow "mobility" may need to be reinterpreted. Furthermore, in accordance with observations, the model predicts that the coignimbrite eruption columns produced from such ash flows rose between 20 and 40 km. Received: 25 August 1995 / Accepted: 3 April 1996  相似文献   

初论地幔热柱与成矿——以冀西北金银多金属成矿区为例   总被引：22，自引：8，他引：14  

李红阳  阎升好  王金锁  张建珍  王国富 《矿床地质》1996,15(3):249-256

作者通过对冀两北金、银多金属矿化集中区成矿规律和物探航磁、重力及遥感信息的综合研究,提出冀西北地区存在一个超越内蒙地轴与燕山褶皱带两个不同历史大地构造单元之上的中生代地幔热柱构造。文中例举了地幔热梓构造标志特征,探讨了地幔热柱构造地质作用（超变质作用、岩浆作用、成矿作用）及其时空演化规律,建立了地幔热柱构造的壳幔成矿模式。  相似文献   

Actinic flux and photolysis frequency comparison computations using the model PHOTOGT     

Carsten Blindauer  Vladimir Rozanov  John Philip Burrows 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1996,24(1):1-21

The accurate radiative transfer model GOMETRAN, initially designed to yield radiances at TOA in the wavelength range 240–790 nm, has been extended to allow for the computation of actinic fluxes down to 175 nm and for the calculation of photolysis frequencies in the atmosphere. The capability of the extended model PHOTOGT (PHOTOGOMETRAN) is demonstrated in a number of successful comparison studies both with recent experiments (ground-based, balloonborne, airborne) and model calculations of radiances, actinic fluxes and photolysis frequencies in the stratosphere and troposphere. In an atmospheric case study, the impact of new quantum yield data for the O₃ » O₂+O(¹ d) photodissociation channel on the photolytic production of O(¹ d) atoms in the lower atmosphere has been quantified.  相似文献   

CSU－RAMS模式在区域气侯模拟中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

万齐林  施永年 《热带气象学报》1996,(2)

将ＣＳＵ－ＲＡＭＳ（中尺度）数值模式改造成“区域气候数值模式”以及进行区域气候数值模拟的试验研究。说明将有限区域中尺度数值模式与ＧＣＭ模式嵌套应用到区域气候数值模拟研究上能够取得有意义的结果。它能在一定程度上改善ＧＣＭ模式的不足。可以更为细致地描述大气环流的变化特征,是了解区域气候变化的有效方法之一。  相似文献   

The Taconite Inlet Lakes Project: a systems approach to paleoclimatic reconstruction     

R. S. Bradley  M. J. Retelle  S. D. Ludlam  D. R. Hardy  B. Zolitschka  S. F. Lamoureux  M. S. V. Douglas 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1996,16(2):97-110

A comprehensive study of meteorological, hydrological, limnological and sedimentological conditions in the watersheds of density-stratified (meromictic) lakes around Taconite Inlet, Northern Ellesmere Island, N.W.T., Canada was carried out from 1990–1992. Lakes C1 and C2 contain seawater trapped by isostatic uplift as the former embayments became isolated from the sea. These lakes, and Lake C3, contain varved sediments which provide an annually resolvable paleoclimatic record. By studing the major systems influencing sedimentation in one of these lakes (Lake C2) a better understanding of the climatic controls on varve formation, and hence on the paleoclimatic signal in the varved sediment record, was obtained. The varves of Lake C2 provide a proxy record of summer temperature for the region.This is the first in a series of papers published in this issue on the Taconite Inlet Lakes Project. These papers were collected by Dr R. S. Bradley.  相似文献