城市雨水利用在区域规划环评中的可行性分析          下载免费PDF全文

常春芝 《气象与环境学报》2008,24(3):24-28

我国目前正处于城市化快速发展阶段,随之而来的城市雨水资源的大量流失和污染严重的雨水径流及由此引起的城市洪灾和生态环境破坏等问题引起了人们的高度关注。对开发区雨水利用可行性分析结果表明:开发区雨水收集量可占总用水量的2.5%—8.0%,可节约用水费用12%—20%;与污水回用相比,在污水量小于5 000 m3/d时,采用雨水收集利用更加经济可行。因此,提出在区域规划层次上,应提高对城市雨水利用对策的重视,充分发挥区域规划环境影响评价宏观控制、协调的作用。  相似文献   

气候检测与归因的格兰杰检验法     

曹鸿兴 郑艳虞海燕  蔡秀华 《气候变化研究进展》2008,4(01):37-41

为揭示气候变化并探索其可能原因,引入了格兰杰因果检验法。在叙述其基本原理的基础上,对影响中国气温变化的若干因子进行了检验。论证了通过检验的因子与中国气温变化的可能物理联系,着重说明了二氧化碳增加对中国气温变化的影响,解释了我国增温滞后于全球气温变化的原因。由此证实格兰杰因果检验法是气候变化检测与归因的一种有用的新方法。通过计算和分析,证实了格兰杰检验法的可用性。  相似文献   

ENSEMBLE PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES BY USING MULTIPLE CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

郝世峰  崔晓鹏  潘劲松 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2008,14(1):41-44

Ensemble prediction experiments of the tracks of eight tropical cyclones occurring between 2004 -2006 over the western Pacific have been performed by using MM5 with five cumulus parameterizations chemes. The results show that the predictions of the tracks of the tropical cyclones are sensitive to the selection of cumulus parameterization schemes. Each scheme has its own advantage and disadvantage, and the predications without cumulus parameterization schemes are not the worst, sometimes even better than the others. And all of the three ensemble methods improve the predictions of the tracks significantly, among which the ensemble method without parameterization schemes, the Grell, Betts-Miller and Kain-Fritsch schemes are the best.  相似文献   

辽宁区域性春旱的大气环流及影响因子分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

阎琦  崔锦  吴艳青  常国旭 《气象与环境学报》2008,24(6):29-33

利用美国NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料、Hadley中心逐月海温资料(HadiSST)和辽宁地区逐日降水资料,对辽宁区域性春旱大气环流特征及影响因子进行分析。结果表明：乌山脊和东亚大槽减弱,位相比历年平均位相偏东,中高纬大气环流经向度减小,是导致中国辽宁区域性春季降水减少的大气环流背景;区域性春旱同期,大陆气压升高,海上气压降低;辽宁上空湿度明显小于历年均值,贝湖到中国辽宁一带盛行西北气流。区域性春旱前冬,辽宁上空200hPa高度场出现正距平;地面气温较历史同期偏高;Nino3海温异常偏低。  相似文献   

How good is good? Human values and Europe's proposed Marine Strategy Directive   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Mee LD  Jefferson RL  Laffoley Dd  Elliott M 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(2):187-204

The adoption of the proposed European Marine Strategy Directive is an opportunity for a comprehensive policy for protecting, improving and sustainably using Europe's environmentally degraded seas. It calls for an ecosystem-based approach to management where humans are regarded as a key system component. Although the proposed wording has been the subject of fierce debate, the central policy goal remains achieving "Good Environmental Status". The interpretation of "good" is key to implementation and relates to human values and worldviews. We demonstrate how these vary widely across Europe. Solution of fundamental considerations such as the assignation of reference states, the balance between precautionary and evidence-based action, the degree of subsidiarity, and conservation strategies including marine protected areas, will ultimately depend upon public understanding, involvement in and support for the Directive. The social element, critical to effective adaptive management, requires greater attention within the context of a regional seas geographical framework.  相似文献   

强震前地震非均匀度异常与前兆群体异常关系的研究     

李志雄  陶本藻  路鹏  李圣强  泽仁志玛  吴婷  和平 《地震》2008,28(2):17-28

通过对比研究华北地区部分中强以上地震震前地震非均匀度异常与区域地震前兆观测群体异常的变化过程, 发现两者在地震前的异常时空演化过程中, 具有一定的关联性。 在时间上, 部分地震震前的地震非均匀度异常出现后, 半年左右前兆观测异常在数量上将出现一次较大幅度的增加; 在空间上, 前兆异常展布范围与地震非均匀度异常范围大体一致。 研究结果表明, 地震非均匀度(GL值)在强地震前出现的异常变化从震例的角度, 表明可能与局部应力场变化有关。 地震非均匀度和前兆群体异常的这种准同步变化, 可能对判定地震孕育进入中短期阶段具有一定的指示意义。  相似文献   

云南年度危险区预测能力的统计分析     

付虹  刘丽芳  赵小艳  毛惠玲  李永莉 《地震》2008,28(4):68-79

通过对云南省地震局1989—2006年度地震趋势研究报告中年度预测水平、 危险区圈定和实际发生地震情况等统计分析, 结果显示云南地区每年发生2.8组M≥5地震, 3年发生2组M≥6地震, 发震的自然概率较高, 1989年以来年度地震活动水平预测为M≥6的对应率较高, 达到了56%。 危险区的预测不能用异常数量的多少来判定, 对于M≥6地震, 应用4级地震频度增长显著的区域和高水位异常区域等指标能更好的预测危险区。 5级地震在云南地区有的时候异常出现最多就是2～3个月就发震, 年度很难用异常判断级地震的危险区, 但5级地震也存在10年左右的主体活动地区迁移现象, 利用主体活动地区的特征可以提高5级地震发生区域的预测能力。 年度应重点跟踪M≥6地震, 由于云南地区6级以上地震发生前中小地震活动增长和前兆异常出现后, 对应地震的时间从几个月到3年不等, 但半年尺度前兆异常数量增加显著, 因此在看到地震活动增强后动态跟踪前兆的变化, 采用长、 中、 短、 临渐进式的预报方式, 仍然是目前提高地震预报效能最有效的途径。  相似文献   

Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure     

Mark Bebbington  Shane J. Cronin  Ian Chapman  Michael B. Turner 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.  相似文献   

川西南及邻区地震短临预测的实践与思考     

牟雅元 《国际地震动态》2008,(5):12-22

在简介川西南及邻区地震地质和历史强震活动的基础上,通过重点梳理部分典型地震短临预测实例,介绍了地方政府对防震减灾、地震预报工作的重视和支持,对工作中的一些实际问题进行了思考,供同行们讨论与参考。  相似文献   

基于指数趋势模型的卡尔曼滤波法在危岩体变形分析中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陆付民  王尚庆 《岩土力学》2008,29(6):1716-1718

以指数趋势模型为基础,建立卡尔曼滤波模型对链子崖危岩体GA监测点的位移量进行预测。首先,把非线性的指数趋势模型经线性化处理后转化成线性模型,用线性最小二乘法求出线性化后的模型参数,再将线性化后的模型参数看作带有动态噪声的状态向量,建立卡尔曼滤波模型,以此模型为基础,对危岩体的位移量进行预测。实例计算表明,用卡尔曼滤波模型对危岩体的位移量进行预测,其预测误差较小,效果较为理想。  相似文献