从气象灾害防御到气象灾害风险管理的管理方法转变     

王炜  权循刚  魏华 《辽宁气象》2011,(1):7-13

讨论了气象灾害和气象灾害风险的重点研究对象。尝试性地将人类认识气象灾害的过程归纳为4个阶段：气象灾害的启蒙认识阶段、气象灾害的监测与预报阶段、气象灾害的减灾工程阶段和气象灾害的风险管理阶段。同时,引出了气象灾害和气象灾害风险的不同理念。以现在时刻为划分点,将过去已发生的灾害定义为气象灾害,将未来可能发生的灾害定义为气象灾害风险。最后建立了基于SWOT的远期气象灾害风险管理的分析方法,并提出了将人工影响天气作为气象灾害风险管理的气象工程手段的观点。  相似文献   

南海西北部浅海沉积物重金属污染的综合评价   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

金路  初凤友  赵建如  翟万林 《海洋学研究》2011,29(2):24-34

利用在南海西北部北部湾和海南岛周边海域采集的492个站位的底质沉积物样品,以同一海区内同时采集的柱状样品的底层样品和"清洁区"样品中各重金属元素含量值作为背景值,运用潜在生态危害指数法、沉积物富集系数法和ArcGIS软件,对其Cd、Zn、Pb、Cu和Crs种重金属元素分布特征及其上述2种污染指数的分布图进行了分析和比较...  相似文献   

Heat flow analysis of an FPSO topside model with wind effect taken into account: A wind-tunnel test and CFD simulation     

B.J. Kim 《Ocean Engineering》2011,38(10):1130-1140

The aim of this paper is to study the feasibility of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method to examine the effect of wind on the thermal-diffusion characteristics of floating production storage and offloading (FSPO) topside models subject to fire. It is motivated by the need to identify the fire loads on FPSO topsides, taking into account the effects of wind speed and direction as well as the effects of geometry of the FPSO topsides. The results of a wind-tunnel test and CFD simulation undertaken for these purposes on a 1/14-scale FPSO topside model of a VLCC class FPSO unit are reported here. In the wind-tunnel test, the locations of the heat source of the fire are varied, as are the speed and direction of the wind, and the temperature distribution is measured. CFD simulations, using the ANSYS CFX (2009) program, were performed on the test model, with the results compared with the experimental results. It is concluded that wind has a significant effect on the thermal-diffusion characteristics of the test model and that the CFD simulations are in good agreement with the experimental results. The insights developed in this study will be very useful for the fire engineering of FPSO topsides.  相似文献   

Prediction of debris-flow danger area by combining hydrological and inundation simulation methods   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Peng Cui  Kaiheng Hu  Jianqi Zhuang  Yu Yang  Jianqiang Zhang 《山地科学学报》2011,8(1):1-9

Debris flows have caused serious human casualties and economic losses in the regions strongly affected by the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. Debris flow mitigation and risk assessment is a key issue for reconstruction.The existing methods of inundation simulation are based on historical disasters and have no power of prediction.The rain-flood method can not yield detailed flow hydrograph and does not meet the need of inundation simulation. In this paper,the process of water flow was studied by using the Arc-SCS model combined with hydraulic method,and then the debris flow runoff process was calculated using the empirical formula combining the result from Arc-SCS.The peak discharge and runoff duration served as input of inundation simulation. Then,the dangerous area is predicted using kinematic wave method and Manning equation.Taking the debris flow in Huashiban gully in Beichuan County,Sichuan Province,China on 24 Sep.2008 as example,the peak discharge of water flow and debris flow were calculated as 35.52 m3·s-1 and 215.66 m3·s-,with error of 4.15%compared to the measured values.The simulated area of debris-flow deposition was 161,500 m2,vs.the measured area of 144,097 m2,in error of 81.75%.The simulated maximum depth was 12.3 m,consistent with the real maximum depth between 10 and 15 m according to the field survey.The minor error is mainly due to the flow impact on buildings and variations in cross-section configuration.The present methodology can be applied to predict debris flow magnitude and evaluate its risk in other watersheds inthe earthquake area.  相似文献   

Seismic hazard model for loss estimation and risk management in Taiwan     

K. W. Campbell  P. C. Thenhaus  T. P. Barnhard  D. B. Hampson 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(9-12):743-754

We developed a seismic hazard model for Taiwan that integrates all available tectonic, seismicity, and seismic hazard information in the region to provide risk managers and engineers with a model they can use to estimate earthquake losses and manage seismic risk in Taiwan. The seismic hazard model is composed of two major components: a seismotectonic model and a ground-shaking model. The seismotectonic model incorporates earthquakes that are expected to occur on the Ryukyu and Manila subduction zones, on the intermediate-depth Wadati-Benioff seismicity zones, on the active crustal faults, and within seismotectonic provinces. The active crustal faults include the Chelungpu fault zone, the source of the damaging M_W 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, and the Huangchi-Hsiaoyukeng fault zone that forms the western boundary of the Taipei Basin. The ground-shaking model uses both US, worldwide, and Taiwanese attenuation relations to provide robust estimates of peak ground acceleration and response spectral acceleration on a reference site condition for shallow crustal and subduction zone earthquakes. The ground shaking for other site conditions is obtained by applying a nonlinear soil-amplification factor defined in terms of the average shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m of the soil profile, consistent with the methodology used in the current US and proposed Taiwan building codes.  相似文献   

北京市门头沟区地质灾害隐患特征     

冉淑红 《城市地质》2013,(3):30-34

北京市门头沟区境内98．5％为山区,地形地质条件复杂,地质灾害较发育,截止到2012年8月,在门头沟区调查确定的地质灾害隐患点共106处。本文分析了门头沟区地质灾害隐患的形成条件,总结了地质灾害隐患在时问和空间上的分布特征,提出了防治建议。  相似文献   

Warning systems for natural threats     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(1):3-20

This paper is a somewhat revised version of the one previously given as a keynote lecture in the ECI Conference, ‘Geohazards: Technical, Economical and Social Consequences’. Some changes have been made to the original paper and the oral presentation: several of the figures and pictures illustrating the recent events have been eliminated, only one decision analysis example is shown and the review of literature on other warning systems has been expanded. Readers interested in the conference paper and oral presentation are referred to the website: http://services.bepress.com/eci/geohazards/  相似文献   

Early detection of brine and CO2 leakage through abandoned wells using pressure and surface-deformation monitoring data: Concept and demonstration     

《Advances in water resources》2013

In this paper, we develop a methodology for early detection of potential CO₂ leakage from geological storage formations using pressure and surface-deformation anomalies. The basic idea is based on the fact that leakage-induced pressure signals travel much faster than the migrating CO₂; thus such anomalies may be detected early enough for risk management measures taking effect in avoiding substantial CO₂ leaks. The early detection methodology involves automatic inversion of anomalous brine leakage signals with efficient forward pressure and surface-deformation modeling tools to estimate the location and permeability of leaky features in the caprock. We conduct a global sensitivity analysis to better understand under which conditions pressure anomalies can be clearly identified as leakage signals, and evaluate signal detectability for a broad parameter range considering different detection limits and levels of data noise. The inverse methodology is then applied to two synthetic examples of idealized two-aquifer-and-one aquitard storage systems, with an injection well and a leaky well, for different monitoring scenarios. In Example 1, only pressure data at the monitoring and injection wells are used for leakage detection. Our results show that the accuracy of leakage detection greatly depends on the level of pressure data noise. In Example 2, joint inversion of pressure and surface-deformation measurements significantly improves the speed of convergence toward the true solution of the leakage parameters and enables early leakage detection. In both examples, successful detection is achieved when two monitoring wells are appropriately placed within up to 4 km from the leaky well.  相似文献   

Classification of kangaroo habitat distribution using three GIS models     

Andrew K. Skidmore  Alison Gauld  Paul Walker 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(4):441-454

Abstract

In this paper, we compare three techniques for mapping wildlife habitat, termed BIOCLIM, CART and a new classification method based on nonparametric techniques. These techniques model dependent map layers of species distributions, where the areas to be mapped are large and the plot data is sparse. The techniques recognise pattern in the (independent) plot data, available to natural resource managers. In this case, the independent data set comprised 12 climate surfaces, that attempt to represent the range of temperature and precipitation important in determining the habitat of kangaroos across Australia. With this particular data set, the CART (decision tree) model was most accurate, but more time consuming to initialise. The relative performance of these models depends on the quality of the data set, and skill of the GIS analyst. Where possible, GIS analysts should implement all available methods, and compare output.  相似文献   

海洋渔业中的不确定性、风险及其效应     

郭守前 《广东海洋大学学报》2003,23(2):1-5

在海洋渔业中 ,存在着自然状态的不确定性 ,这会引起人的行为的不确定性 ,进而引起资源供给的不确定性。不确定性使渔民对其行为的预期存在风险 ,因而他们总是试图规避风险以减少不确定性带来的损失。人们的风险规避行为可能带来海洋渔业资源过度使用的效应  相似文献