Stationarity is undead: Uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes     

《Advances in water resources》2015

The increasing effort to develop and apply nonstationary models in hydrologic frequency analyses under changing environmental conditions can be frustrated when the additional uncertainty related to the model complexity is accounted for along with the sampling uncertainty. In order to show the practical implications and possible problems of using nonstationary models and provide critical guidelines, in this study we review the main tools developed in this field (such as nonstationary distribution functions, return periods, and risk of failure) highlighting advantages and disadvantages. The discussion is supported by three case studies that revise three illustrative examples reported in the scientific and technical literature referring to the Little Sugar Creek (at Charlotte, North Carolina), Red River of the North (North Dakota/Minnesota), and the Assunpink Creek (at Trenton, New Jersey). The uncertainty of the results is assessed by complementing point estimates with confidence intervals (CIs) and emphasizing critical aspects such as the subjectivity affecting the choice of the models’ structure. Our results show that (1) nonstationary frequency analyses should not only be based on at-site time series but require additional information and detailed exploratory data analyses (EDA); (2) as nonstationary models imply that the time-varying model structure holds true for the entire future design life period, an appropriate modeling strategy requires that EDA identifies a well-defined deterministic mechanism leading the examined process; (3) when the model structure cannot be inferred in a deductive manner and nonstationary models are fitted by inductive inference, model structure introduces an additional source of uncertainty so that the resulting nonstationary models can provide no practical enhancement of the credibility and accuracy of the predicted extreme quantiles, whereas possible model misspecification can easily lead to physically inconsistent results; (4) when the model structure is uncertain, stationary models and a suitable assessment of the uncertainty accounting for possible temporal persistence should be retained as more theoretically coherent and reliable options for practical applications in real-world design and management problems; (5) a clear understanding of the actual probabilistic meaning of stationary and nonstationary return periods and risk of failure is required for a correct risk assessment and communication.  相似文献   

从风险社会理论视角看全国地震重点监视防御区制度的作用     

高孟潭  伍国春  吴新燕  郎从 《中国地震研究》2015,29(1):1-7

Earthquake disaster risk,as a typical social disaster risk,is one of the most important risks in modern Chinese society.This study gives definitions of the institution,describes the formation history,the connotations and development and analyzes its role in the control of major social risks caused by earthquakes.Finally,the paper presents recommendations for continuous improvement of this institution under the guidance of risk society theory,and for its application to the government reform and social governance.  相似文献   

Integrating TRMM and MODIS satellite with socio-economic vulnerability for monitoring drought risk over a tropical region of India     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2015

Drought is a recurring feature of the climate, responsible for social and economic losses in India. In the present work, attempts were made to estimate the drought hazard and risk using spatial and temporal datasets of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in integration with socio-economic vulnerability. The TRMM rainfall was taken into account for trend analysis and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) estimation, with aim to investigate the changes in rainfall and deducing its pattern over the area. The SPI and average rainfall data derived from TRMM were interpolated to obtain the spatial and temporal pattern over the entire South Bihar of India, while the MODIS datasets were used to derive the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) deviation in the area. The Geographical Information System (GIS) is taken into account to integrate the drought vulnerability and hazard, in order to estimate the drought risk over entire South Bihar. The results indicated that approximately 36.90% area is facing high to very high drought risk over north-eastern and western part of South Bihar and need conservation measurements to combat this disaster.  相似文献   

我国地震灾害风险分散模式探究     

任俊峰  袁国旭  孙澎涛  焦成丽  张玉林  李文军  孙贵成  于艳红  李万里 《高原地震》2014,(2):39-42

为加强我国防震减灾工作,完善地震灾后补偿制度,我国应建立合理的地震灾害风险分散模式。通过比较研究发达国家地震灾害风险分散的模式,得出我国实行地震灾害风险分散模式的必要性;同时提出建立适合我国国情的地震灾害风险分散模式,为地震灾后补偿机制及灾后保障体系的建立提供较好的建议。  相似文献   

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the mariculture zones of China’s northern Yellow Sea     

Humin Zong  Xindong MaGuangshui Na  Chuanlin HuoXiutang Yuan  Zhifeng Zhang 《Marine pollution bulletin》2014

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were detected in water and sediment samples collected from three mariculture zones in China’s northern Yellow Sea. In these samples, total PAH concentrations ranged from 110.8 ng/L to 997.2 ng/L and 142.2 ng/g dry weight (dw) to 750.2 ng/g dw, respectively. The log K_OC values of the various PAH compounds examined in this study increased with the log K_OW values, which is consistent with the prediction regarding PAH behavior in the environment. However, these K_OC values were lower than the predicted values as a result of the effects of organic matters, which were abundant in the mariculture water. The isomeric ratios of the PAHs in sediment indicated that the source of the PAHs in the mariculture zones were mainly pyrolytic. The TEQ^carc values of PAHs ranged from 7 ng TEQ/g dw to 92 ng TEQ/g dw, and only a few samples met the safe criterion with respect to individual PAH concentrations.  相似文献   

Seismic damage evaluation in urban areas using the capacity spectrum method: Application to Barcelona   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Alex H. Barbat  Luis G. Pujades  Nieves Lantada 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2008,28(10-11):851

Conceptual aspects related to seismic vulnerability, damage and risk evaluation are discussed first, together with a short review of the most widely used possibilities for seismic evaluation of structures. The capacity spectrum method and the way of obtaining seismic damage scenarios for urban areas starting from capacity and fragility curves are then discussed. The determination of capacity curves for buildings using non-linear structural analysis tools is then explained, together with a simplified expeditious procedure allowing the development of fragility curves. The seismic risk of the buildings of Barcelona, Spain, is analyzed in the paper, based on the application of the capacity spectrum method. The seismic hazard in the area of the city is described by means of the reduced 5% damped elastic response spectrum. The information on the buildings was obtained by collecting, arranging, improving and completing a broad database of the dwellings and current buildings. The buildings existing in Barcelona are mainly of two types: unreinforced masonry structures and reinforced concrete buildings with waffled-slab floors. The ArcView software was used to create a GIS tool for managing the collected information in order to develop seismic risk scenarios. This study shows that the vulnerability of the buildings is significant in Barcelona and, therefore, in spite of the low-to-moderate seismic hazard in the region, the expected seismic risk is considerable.  相似文献   

GIS-based risk analysis of debris flow： an application in Sichuan, southwest China   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

B.E DI  N.S.CHEN  P.CUI  Z.L.LI  Y.P.HE  Y.C.GAO 《国际泥沙研究》2008,23(2):138-148

Debris flow is a serious geologic hazard in China. It is estimated that nationally debris flows cause up to 2 billion RMB （250 million US$） in damages and 300-600 deaths and injuries annually. To mitigate debris flow hazards, it is necessary to map, model, and identify zones of debris flow hazards and vulnerability as to inform the local people about the potential risk with a geographic information system. This research presents a regional scale case study modeling debris flow risk （hazard and vulnerability） in Sichuan Province, Southwestern China. In this area, 3,290 debris flows have been identified and the spatial-temporal distribution and activity characteristics of them have been documented. Based on the available meteorological data, a Digital Elevation Model with the rate of 1：250,000 and a regional geological map, the 24-hr rainfall threshold （y） for debris flow occurrence is closely related （significant at 99% confidence level） to the index （x） defined using a geology factor （rock hardness： a） and a topographical factor （channel gradient： d） where y = 21 ＋ 10200 / x, in which x = 2.7 × e^a ＋ 1000 × d. The discipline is constructive in developing the rainfall threshold for debris flow activity in remote mountainous areas that lack data. For a given watershed, a four-level debris flow hazard map is developed by comparing the rainfall threshold to the design rainfall intensities with 50-, 20-, and 5-year average recurrence intervals, respectively. The degree of debris flow vulnerability is determined by the watershed socio-economic conditions. A four-class debris flow risk map, at the final phase of the research, is generated by combining debris flow hazards and vulnerability. With the debris flow risk assessment, the Sichuan Province is classified into the slight, moderate, severe and very severe regions, which accounts for 36%, 19%, 20% and 25% of total area respectively.  相似文献   

Evaluating sources of uncertainty in Australian runoff projections     

B.L. Preston  R.N. Jones 《Advances in water resources》2008

Generating estimates of the future impacts of climate change on human and natural systems is confounded by cascading uncertainties which propagate through the impact assessment. Here, a simple stochastic rainfall–runoff model representing 238 river basins on the Australian continent was used to assess the sensitivity of the risk of runoff changes to various sources of uncertainty. Uncertainties included global mean temperature change, greenhouse gas stabilisation targets, catchment sensitivities to climatic change, and the seasonality of runoff, rainfall, and evaporation. Model simulations provided estimates of the first-order risk of climate change to Australian catchments, with several regions having high likelihoods of experiencing significant reductions in future runoff. Climate uncertainty (at global and regional scales) was identified as the dominant driving force in hydrological risk assessments. Uncertainties in catchment sensitivities to climatic changes also influenced risk, provided they were sufficiently large, whereas structural assumptions of the model were generally negligible. Collectively, these results indicate that rigorous assessment of climate risk to water resources over relatively long time-scales is largely a function of adequately exploring the uncertainty space of future climate changes.  相似文献   

奥布公路泥石流危险性评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

尚彦军  李坤  陈全君  杨长德  魏思宇 《新疆地质》2019,(3):382-388

作为喀喇昆仑公路的重要组成部分,奥依塔克-布伦口(简称奥布)公路受到沿线数量众多且规模较大的泥石流影响,常导致行车中断,人员和车辆安全受到威胁。在现场地质考察和走访基础上,依据ArcGIS工具对奥布公路段的15条典型泥石流沟开展了重点调查和危险性评价。首先对汇流面积、纵坡度、面积宽度比、堆积区面积和距公路距离等5个评价因子属性进行归一化处理;然后采用两层结构的层次分析法计算得到影响因子的权重,随后将属性函数与权重乘积加和,得到灾害易发性指数(DFRD);最后对泥石流危险度(DRFR)进行计算分析和危险程度分级。结果发现,高-中度危险的11条泥石流主要分布在布伦口峡谷上游、盖孜检查站和加水沟之间,构成了泥石流灾害发育较为集中且危害性较大的路段。工程上相应采用隧道、高架桥等绕避措施,取得较好成效。  相似文献   

影响公众震灾风险认知的因素分析——以新疆喀什、乌鲁木齐地区为例   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

苏筠  尹衍雨  高立龙  努尔买买提·吾布力卡斯木 《地震工程学报》2009,31(1):51-56

研究震灾风险认知及其影响因素有助于从公众视角揭示风险潜在因素,为降低灾害风险提供决策依据.本文以新疆的喀什、乌鲁木齐为研究区,通过问卷调查方式,采用假设检验和相关分析等统计方法,研究影响公众的临震心理、风险估计、地震知识水平、防震意愿及行为等震灾风险认知的因素.结果表明:影响因素包括性别、教育水平、收入水平、家庭结构、房屋结构、居住区危险性等;因素之间互相联系与风险认知因子形成正、负反馈链,其中收入水平影响了风险感知是否能转化为防减灾的积极行为.并在灾害风险分析的基础上提出了减轻地震灾害风险的对策建议.  相似文献