Spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in a MCDA-based flood vulnerability model     

Mariana Madruga de Brito  Adrian Almoradie  Mariele Evers 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(9):1788-1806

This study presents a methodology for conducting sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a GIS-based multi-criteria model used to assess flood vulnerability in a case study in Brazil. The paper explores the robustness of model outcomes against slight changes in criteria weights. One criterion was varied at-a-time, while others were fixed to their baseline values. An algorithm was developed using Python and a geospatial data abstraction library to automate the variation of weights, implement the ANP (analytic network process) tool, reclassify the raster results, compute the class switches, and generate an uncertainty surface. Results helped to identify highly vulnerable areas that are burdened by high uncertainty and to investigate which criteria contribute to this uncertainty. Overall, the criteria ‘houses with improper building material’ and ‘evacuation drills and training’ are the most sensitive ones, thus, requiring more accurate measurements. The sensitivity of these criteria is explained by their weights in the base run, their spatial distribution, and the spatial resolution. These findings can support decision makers to characterize, report, and mitigate uncertainty in vulnerability assessment. The case study results demonstrate that the developed approach is simple, flexible, transparent, and may be applied to other complex spatial problems.  相似文献   

Fatigue reliability analysis of mooring system for fish cage     

《Applied Ocean Research》2018

Fish cages in the open sea are exposed to cycle loads due to irregular wave climate during their service life, and thus the fatigue reliability assessment of mooring system should be conducted to ensure the safe operation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the fatigue failure probability of mooring system for fish cage. Numerical simulation of net cage in random waves is performed and the time dependent approach is applied to conduct the fatigue reliability analysis of shackle chains based on S-N curve method. The sensitivity analysis of fatigue reliability of mooring line to the uncertainty of random variables in the fatigue limit state is conducted. In addition, the system reliability for mooring system is analyzed and the effect of the initial pretension and safety factor on system reliability is investigated. The results indicate that a case without the initial pretension on anchor lines is helpful to decrease the failure probability of mooring system and the safety factor of mooring lines in the current regulation is conservative for the system reliability against fatigue damage.  相似文献   

导电性影响的地面核磁共振反演   总被引：13，自引：2，他引：11       下载免费PDF全文

翁爱华  王雪秋  刘国兴  莫修文  王德利 《地球物理学报》2007,50(3):890-896

导电性影响对实际的地面核磁共振反演非常重要. 在导电条件下,导出了地面核磁共振感应电动势的平方是含水率分布的二次型. 通过进一步分析,我们将其对含水率的灵敏度用显式表示出来,为由核磁感应电动势利用迭代技术快速求解含水率分布奠定了理论基础. 数值模拟结果表明,在自由空间与导电条件下,采用非线性反演技术获得的含水率分布与理论模型都有非常好的一致性.  相似文献   

Uncertainty in the Specification of Surface Characteristics, Part ii: Hierarchy of Interaction-Explicit Statistical Analysis     

Devdutta S. Niyogi  Sethu Raman  Kiran Alapaty 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1999,91(3):341-366

The uncertainty in the specification of surface characteristics in soil-vegetation- atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) schemes within planetary boundary-layer (PBL) or mesoscale models is addressed. The hypothesis to be tested is whether the errors in the specification of the individual parameters are accumulative or whether they tend to balance each other in the overall sense for the system. A hierarchy of statistical applications is developed: classical one-at-a-time (OAT) approach, level 1; linear analysis of variance (ANOVA), level 1.5; fractional factorial (FF), or level 2; two-factor interaction (TFI) technique, or level 2.5; and a non-linear response surface methodology (RSM), or level 3. Using the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) observations for June 6, 1987 as the initial condition for a SVAT scheme dynamically coupled to a PBL model, the interactions between uncertainty errors are analyzed. A secondary objective addresses the temporal changes in the uncertainty pattern using data for morning, afternoon, and evening conditions. It is found that the outcome from the level 1 OAT-like studies can be considered as the limiting uncertainty values for the majority of mesoscale cases. From the higher-level analyses, it is concluded that for most of the moderate surface scenarios, the effective uncertainty from the individual parameters is balanced and thus lowered. However, for the extreme cases, such as near wilting or saturation soil moisture, the uncertainties add up synergistically and these effects can be even greater than those from the outcomes of the OAT-like studies. Thus, parameter uncertainty cannot be simply related to its deviation alone, but is also dependent on other parameter settings. Also, from the temporal changes in the interaction pattern studies, it is found that, for the morning case soil texture is the important parameter, for afternoon vegetation parameters are crucial, while for the evening case soil moisture is capable of propagating maximum uncertainty in the SVAT processes. Finally, a generic hypothesis is presented that an appropriate question for analysis has to be rephrased from the previous 'which parameters are significant?’ to 'what scenarios make a particular parameter significant?’  相似文献   

Sensitivity of near-surface Tropical Instability Waves to submonthly wind forcing in the tropical Atlantic     

Gabriela Athi  Frdric Marin  Anne-Marie Treguier  Bernard Bourls  Catherine Guiavarc&#x;h 《Ocean Modelling》2009,30(4):241-255

This study demonstrates the sensitivity of the near-surface properties in the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the high-frequency of the winds in numerical simulations. At intra-seasonal timescales (2–50 days), two distinct period ranges dominate the variability in the upper ocean: periods between 2 and 20 days, which are essentially wind-forced and periods between 20 and 50 days, due mostly to Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs). Using a numerical model forced by different wind fields, it is shown that the characteristics of the intra-seasonal variability in the ocean surface mixed-layer are strongly dependent on the wind forcing. Submonthly winds are shown to force large variability in the upper ocean that can strikingly decrease the amplitude of the TIWs in the mixed-layer and their imprint on the horizontal distribution of sea surface temperatures. Wind products containing too much energy at submonthly periods thus prevent wind-forced simulations from reproducing a realistic surface signature of TIWs, when compared to satellite observations of sea surface temperature. In addition, submonthly wind variability may be responsible for part of the observed interannual variability of the TIW signature in the temperature. The impact of submonthly winds is strongest in the mixed-layer: beneath the mixed-layer, all simulations show similar characteristics of the TIWs.  相似文献   

Sensitivity analysis of influencing parameters on slit-type barrier performance against debris flow using 3D-based numerical approach     

Minseop Kim  Seungrae Lee  Tae-Hyuk Kwon  Shin-Kyu Choi  Jun-Seo Jeon 《国际泥沙研究》2021,36(1):50-62

Extreme rainfall-induced debris flow can be catastrophic to an urban area,and installation of slit-type barriers can prevent such damage while minimizing negative impact on environments.However,the performance of slit-type barriers against debris flows remains poorly identified partly due to the innate complexity in interactions between debris flow and solid structure.This paper investigated the flow behaviors of debris affected by slit-type barriers using the computational fluid dynamics(CFD)method,in which the numerical model based on the volume of fluid method was verified using the physical modeling results.The sensitivity analysis was performed by building metamodels to determine the primary parameters influencing the barrier performance against debris flows among various variables,in which the effect of input properties and design parameters,particularly the soil concentration in fluidized debris,initial velocity and volume of debris,the barrier height,and the opening ratio,was evaluated from the perspectives of the flow energy reduction and debris trapping.The initial velocity and volume of debris were found to play a significant role in determining the debris flow characteristics.A decrease in the opening ratio in the channel primarily facilitated the energy reduction and trapping due to the reduced opening size.However,the barrier height exhibited a limited effect when the height was sufficiently high to block the debris flow volume.In addition,it was observed that the double barrier system effectively increased the energy reduction while keeping the benefit of open-type barrier.The developed simulation method and obtained results provide an effective tool and an insight that can contribute to an optimum design of the debris-flow barrier.  相似文献   

Sensitivity of fluid flow to deformation-band damage zone heterogeneities: A study using fault facies and truncated Gaussian simulation     

《Journal of Structural Geology》2013

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Comparative performances of eggs and embryos of sea urchin (Paracentrotus lividus) in toxicity bioassays used for assessment of marine sediment quality     

《Marine pollution bulletin》2013,71(1-2):204-209

The potential toxicity of sediments from various ports was assessed by means of two different liquid-phase toxicity bioassays (acute and chronic) with embryos and eggs of sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. Performances of embryos and eggs of P. lividus in these bioassays were compared for their interchangeable applicability in integrated sediment quality assessment. The obtained endpoints (percentages of normally developed plutei and fertilized eggs) were linked to physical and chemical properties of sediments and demonstrated dependence on sediment contamination. The endpoints in the two bioassays were strongly correlated and generally exhibited similar tendency throughout the samples. Therein, embryos demonstrated higher sensitivity to elutriate exposure, compared to eggs. It was concluded that these tests could be used interchangeably for testing toxicity of marine sediments. Preferential use of any of the bioassays can be determined by the discriminatory capacity of the test or vulnerability consideration of the test subject to the surrounding conditions.  相似文献   

Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment     

Pepijn de Vries  Jacqueline E. Tamis  Edwin M. Foekema  Chris Klok  Albertinka J. Murk 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013

The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO₂ levels and related considerations of geological CO₂ storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO₂ levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment.  相似文献   

Marine spatial planning and oil spill risk analysis: Finding common grounds     

Catarina Frazão Santos  Jaqueline Michel  Mário Neves  João Janeiro  Francisco Andrade  Michael Orbach 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013

A flow of key information links marine spatial planning (MSP) and oil spill risk analysis (OSRA), two distinct processes needed to achieve true sustainable management of coastal and marine areas. OSRA informs MSP on areas of high risk to oil spills allowing a redefinition of planning objectives and the relocation of activities to increase the ecosystem’s overall utility and resilience. Concomitantly, MSP continuously generates a large amount of data that is vital to OSRA. The Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) mapping system emerges as an operational tool to implement the MSP–OSRA link. Given the high level of commonalities between ESI and MSP data (both in biophysical and human dimensions), ESI tools (both paper maps and dynamic GIS-based product) are easily developed to further inform MSP and oil spill risk management. Finally, several other benefits from implementing the MSP–OSRA link are highlighted.  相似文献