梧州市森林火险气象预报     

黎金水  杜国定 《气象》1994,20(1):40-42

使用１９８０－１９９１年森林火灾及相应的气象资料，分析了森林火灾与有关气象要素的相关性。在此基础上，计算了森林火险天气预报指标，建立了预报模式，开展了森林火险天气等级预报。经试用效果较好。  相似文献   

1993年北半球环流特征及其对我国天气气候的影响   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈桂英 《气象》1994,20(4):23-26

１９９３年北半球主要环流特征表现为：５００ｈＰａ副产持续加强西伸，位置偏南；亚洲中纬度春，夏经向环流发展，东亚太平洋遥相关型稳定；西藏高原５００ｈＰａ位势高度持续偏高，印缅槽持续偏弱；１００ｈＰａ位势高度场低纬持续偏高，中，高纬持续偏低，夏季南亚高压位置异常偏高。热带海洋出现明显异常，一次新的厄尔尼诺现象发生。热带海洋和北半球大气环流的异常对我国天气气候产生明显影响。  相似文献   

人工神经网络在天气预报中的应用研究   总被引：14，自引：4，他引：14  

张承福 《气象》1994,20(6):43-47

介绍了将人工神经元网络用于灾害性天气（暴雨）预报研究的情况，分析了天气预报问题的数学提法及困难所在，神经元网络用于天气预报的原理，暴雨预报的特点及我们对网络模型的改进。结果表明，神经风格确可通过学习从原始数据中提取足够的分类信息，达到较好的预报准确率，值得进一步研究。  相似文献   

CHARACTERISTICS OF TURBULENCE SPECTRA IN DIFFERENT WEATHER PROCESSES UNDER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS^*          下载免费PDF全文

Zhu Wenqin  Zhu Cuijuan  Li Xingsheng 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1994,8(3):296-304

In this paper,the data chosen from measurements by supersonic anemometers in Tongxian County of Beijing in 1990 are used to study characteristics of turbulence spectra in precipitation weather.Some turbulence parameters such as turbulence intensity,heat and momentum fluxes,friction velocity,M-O length and stability parameter are calculated and their dependence on turbulence spectra in different stability conditions are analyzed.Some encouraging results are obtained and compared with others' results.  相似文献   

Development of Artificial Intelligence Technology in Weather Forecast     

Leiming Ma 《地球科学进展》1986,35(6):551-560

Numerical weather prediction, which is the major basis of current weather forecast, has some shortcomings, such as the understanding of the law of atmospheric motion, the assimilation and application of observation data, the expression of model physics, etc., leading to the forecast error of weather. The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology in recent years provides a new possibility for the advancement and innovation of weather forecast. In this paper, the background of the development of artificial intelligence, the current situation of the application of artificial intelligence technology to weather forecast and the future development trend are mainly described to account for this possibility. After that, the idea for development of weather forecast technology based on the integration of artificial intelligence and numerical forecast is put forward. Particularly, this study stresses that, in order to advance the AI algorithm of weather forecast in the future, it is requested to focus on the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of atmospheric motion leading to the uncertainty of forecast. Starting from the essence of mathematics and physics, we need to realize the hybrid modeling of mathematics and physics, not only to establish the framework of input-output mapping, but also to provide solutions to the bottleneck problems of weather forecast.  相似文献   

自忆性方程与自忆模式   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

曹鸿兴 《气象》1995,21(1):9-13

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Characteristics of air flow over Andaman islands including precipitation     

Sarat C. Kar  N. Ramanathan 《Journal of Earth System Science》1987,96(2):169-188

The characteristics of simulated air flow over Andaman Islands are studied with a two-dimensional version of the University of Virginia meso scale model (UVMM). Using the observed synoptic data as initial conditions, 24 hr simulations are obtained for a day each in April and November. These days are chosen to study the variations in the simulated flow pattern under different synoptic conditions including precipitation effects. A large scale condensation scheme is employed to consider the effect of latent heat release on the perturbations. The results show that the latent heat released by condensation strengthens the intensity of perturbations and the topography accelerates the arrival of sea breeze by about an hour. The model-simulated results, given in graphical form, are discussed and compared with available observations.  相似文献   

Statistics on the vertical structure of rainshowers     

R. R. Rogers  K. J. Keen  M. Blaskovic 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1983,121(1):167-184

A large sample of summertime data from the McGill Radar Weather Observatory was analyzed to determine the variation with altitude of the horizontal extent of individual rainshowers. For echoes defined by a reflectivity factor of 39 dBz (equivalent to a rainfall rate of about 10 mm/h) it was found that the mean area of the total population of echoes decreases linearly with altitude from approximately 20 km² at 2 km to 11 km² at 8 km. Subsets of the total population were investigated, consisting of only the echoes penetrating the altitudes of 6, 7, and 8 km. On the average these relatively tall echoes are much greater in horizontal extent than the total population. Whereas the sizes of the total population of echoes at any altitude are distributed approximately exponentially in terms of the square root of area, the sizes of the “survivors” that extend to high altitudes may be described by the gamma distribution with a mean value decreasing approximately linearly with height above 3 km and a dispersion of 0.55. Some characteristics are also reported for echoes defined by reflectivities of 31 dBz and 47 dBz. Estimates are given of the fraction of the total area in a horizontal plane that contains echoes in each of these categories.  相似文献   

Statistics on the sizes and internal structures of rainshowers     

R. R. Rogers  K. J. Keen  A. P. Schwartz 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1983,121(1):133-166

A large sample of radar reflectivity data from essentially a full summer of operation was analyzed to determine the horizontal extents and internal structure of rain areas observed at altitude levels from 2 to 10 km. Results are given on the size distributions of individual cells or patches defined by reflectivity thresholds approximately 4 dBz apart, on the dependence of mean size on altitude and reflectivity threshold, and on the interior structure of the patches as characterized by the number and sizes of higher-threshold patches contained in each echo. In a more detailed analysis of internal structure, the data were restricted to convective echoes in which certain prescribed reflectivities, ranging from about 30 to 50 dBz, were exceeded. It was found that the dependence of mean quantities, such as patch area, on reflectivity and altitude could be approximately described by simple functions, but that the scatter of observations about the mean was usually large.  相似文献   

浅谈自动气象站的防雷设计要点   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李荣迪  潘田凤 《广西气象》2005,26(2):51-52,55

运用当代防雷领域中的有关理论，对自动气象站容易遭受雷击的原因和途径进行分析，提出了自动气象站的防雷设计要点。  相似文献