南海北部海域油气勘探保障建设选址适宜性研究     

武二亮  陈浩东  刘裕光  安永宁 《海岸工程》2020,39(4):256-262

为分析南海北部海域油气勘探保障建设选址的适宜性,在广泛研究备选区特征资料的基础上,基于层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)原理,以自然环境因素、开发环境因素、基础设施与投资情况以及其他因素作为一级评判准则,建立了包括12项二级评判准则的递进层次结构模型,并以永兴岛、赵述岛和晋卿岛作为3个假定备选区,来验证分析评价模型的有效性和可靠性。AHP评判结果显示,3个备选区的整体优劣指数依次为0.587 1, 0.212 1, 0.200 8;AHP模型的一致性比例CR值为0.020 3。通过分析和筛选影响远海油气勘探保障建设的选址因子,构建基于AHP原理的选址评价模型,可用于分析评价南海北部岛礁油气勘探保障建设选址的适宜性。  相似文献   

基于高分辨率风场的海洋近惯性能通量计算——时空特征及其影响因素     

杨兵  侯一筠 《海洋与湖沼》2020,51(5):978-990

基于高分辨率CFSR(climate forecast system reanalysis)风场资料、气候态海洋混合层厚度资料和卫星高度计海面高度异常资料,本文估计了大气风场向全球海洋混合层的近惯性能通量和近惯性能量输入功率,并探究了混合层厚度、风场时间分辨率、经验衰减系数和中尺度涡旋涡度对近惯性能通量和能量输入功率的影响。浮标实测风场和流速表明,本文所用的风场和阻尼平板模型可用于估计风场向全球海洋的近惯性能通量。本文计算得到的大气向全球海洋输入近惯性能量的功率为0.56TW(1TW=10~(12)W),其中北半球贡献0.22TW,南半球贡献0.34TW。在时间上,风场的近惯性能通量呈现各个半球冬季最强、夏季最弱的特征,这和西风带风场的季节变化有关。在空间上,近惯性能通量的高值海域为南、北半球西风带海洋,尤其是南大洋。混合层厚度和风场空间不均匀性使得西风带近惯性能通量呈现纬向变化,即海盆西部强于海盆东部。风场时间分辨率对近惯性能通量的估计至关重要,低时间分辨率风场对近惯性能通量的低估达到13%—30%。阻尼平板模型中的经验衰减系数对近惯性能通量估计的影响不超过5%。中尺度涡旋涡度仅改变近惯性能通量的空间分布,而对全球近惯性能量输入功率的影响可以忽略。  相似文献   

Root‐zone moisture replenishment in a native vegetated catchment under Mediterranean climate     

Xiang Xu  Huade Guan  Grzegorz Skrzypek  Craig T. Simmons 《水文研究》2019,33(18):2394-2407

The root‐zone moisture replenishment mechanisms are key unknowns required to understand soil hydrological processes and water sources used by plants. Temporal patterns of root‐zone moisture replenishment reflect wetting events that contribute to plant growth and survival and to catchment water yield. In this study, stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes of twigs and throughfall were continuously monitored to characterize the seasonal variations of the root‐zone moisture replenishment in a native vegetated catchment under Mediterranean climate in South Australia. The two studied hillslopes (the north‐facing slope [NFS] and the south‐facing slope [SFS]) had different environmental conditions with opposite aspects. The twig and throughfall samples were collected every ~20 days over 1 year on both hillslopes. The root‐zone moisture replenishment, defined as percentage of newly replenished root‐zone moisture as a complement to antecedent moisture for plant use, calculated by an isotope balance model, was about zero (±25% for the NFS and ± 15% for the SFS) at the end of the wet season (October), increased to almost 100% (±26% for the NFS and ± 29% for the SFS) after the dry season (April and May), then decreased close to zero (±24% for the NFS and ± 28% for the SFS) in the middle of the following wet season (August). This seasonal pattern of root‐zone moisture replenishment suggests that the very first rainfall events of the wet season were significant for soil moisture replenishment and supported the plants over wet and subsequent dry seasons, and that NFS completed replenishment over a longer time than SFS in the wet season and depleted the root zone moisture quicker in the dry season. The stable oxygen isotope composition of the intraevent samples and twigs further confirms that rain water in the late wet season contributed little to root‐zone moisture. This study highlights the significant role of the very first rain events in the early wet season for ecosystem and provides insights to understanding ecohydrological separation, catchment water yield, and vegetation response to climate changes.  相似文献   

Farmer-based Rice Cropping Systems in the Poyang Lake Region,China: Analysis of Characteristics and Policy Implications     

Khampheng BOUDMYXAY  LI Peng  XIAO Chiwei  SHEN Lei  ZHONG Shuai 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(3):256-264

This paper examines the spatial characteristics of farmer/household behaviors in regional rice cropping systems (RCS), and the results provide necessary information for developing strategies that will maintain regional food security. Through field study and statistical analysis based on 402 households questionnaires finished in 2014-2015 in the Poyang Lake Region (PLR) of China, we arrived at two main conclusions. First, single- and double cropping rice were found across the study area, but showed a general distribution trend, with double cropping rice in the southeast part (especially in Jinxian county) and single cropping rice in the northwest (particularly in De’an county). Second, the household decisions concerning RCS varied in different parts of the PLR, but double cropping was the dominant type, with about 63.57% of the respondent households in the PLR cultivating double cropping rice. However, the multiple-cropping index of paddy rice was only 1.55. About 3% of interviewed households had altered their RCS during this period. Based on these findings, the local governments should guide farmers’ paddy field cultivation behaviors by increasing the comparative efficiency of rice production, promoting appropriate scale operations and land conversion, as well as optimizing rice growing conditions to improve the multiple cropping index and enhance food provision. Finally, land-use efficiency and more sustainable use of land resources should be improved.  相似文献   

辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计的海冰参数选取     

马玉贤  关湃  许宁  许有良  袁帅  刘永青  于福祥 《海洋工程》2019,37(3):136-142

海冰参数的合理取值是海洋工程海冰灾害风险评估的重要内容。利用1950—2018年的冰情等级(5个等级)数据,进行了1950—2018、1950—1990、1991—2018三种情景下的回归分析,确定了不同时期的冰情等级概率分布密度函数。利用鲅鱼圈雷达观测站2002—2017年的海冰现场实测资料,分别对鲅鱼圈附近海域一般冰厚、最大冰厚、最小冰厚进行概率分布拟合。基于上述概率分布结果,给出不同冰情等级的重现期,进而对海冰作业条件给出的设计参考值进行评价。结果表明:1990年以后2级、3级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变小,4级、5级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变大,规范给出重现期范围已不能代表辽东湾冬季海冰情况。本研究成果可为辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计提供重要数据支撑。  相似文献   

基于无人机多源遥感数据海岛植被叶面积指数协同反演研究     

吴剑  陈鹏  傅世锋  陈庆辉  潘翔  宋志晓 《海洋技术学报》2019,38(6):1-8

无人机多源遥感数据的获取、融合以及应用是当今研究的热点和难点。文中以城洲岛为例,针对海岛特殊的地理生态环境,获取无人机多源遥感数据。结合无人机多光谱遥感数据定量分析各遥感植被指数与植被叶面积指数(Leaf Area Index, LAI)的响应关系,构建单因子遥感反演模型;基于无人机激光LiDAR点云提取海岛植被冠层高度模型(Canopy Height Model,CHM),并将其作为自变量引入到多源统计回归分析中,从而构建多源遥感数据协同反演模型,对区域尺度下海岛叶面积指数(LAI)进行估算,开展验证和精度评价。结果显示,加入植被冠层高度因子的协同反演模型的判定系数R2为0.92,绝对平均误差系数为12.29%,预测精度要优于单因子反演模型(判定次数R2为0.86,绝对平均误差系数19.95%)。研究表明,加入了植被冠层高度因子的协同反演模型能在一定程度上提高乔木植被LAI的预测精度。实践证明,无人机多源遥感技术在生态学定量研究中具有巨大的潜力和广阔的应用前景。  相似文献   

Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions          下载免费PDF全文

Lei Yan  Lihua Xiong  Dedi Liu  Tiesong Hu  Chong‐Yu Xu 《水文研究》2017,31(1):69-89

The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimation of instantaneous peak flow from maximum mean daily flow by regionalization of catchment model parameters          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Ding  Uwe Haberlandt 《水文研究》2017,31(3):612-626

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Generation of continuous surface soil moisture dataset using combined optical and thermal infrared images          下载免费PDF全文

Pei Leng  Xiaoning Song  Si‐Bo Duan  Zhao‐Liang Li 《水文研究》2017,31(6):1398-1407

Surface soil moisture (SSM) is a critical variable for understanding water and energy flux between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. An easy to apply algorithm for deriving SSM time series that primarily uses temporal parameters derived from simulated and in situ datasets has recently been reported. This algorithm must be assessed for different biophysical and atmospheric conditions by using actual geostationary satellite images. In this study, two currently available coarse‐scale SSM datasets (microwave and reanalysis product) and aggregated in situ SSM measurements were implemented to calibrate the time‐invariable coefficients of the SSM retrieval algorithm for conditions in which conventional observations are rare. These coefficients were subsequently used to obtain SSM time series directly from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) images over the study area of a well‐organized soil moisture network named REMEDHUS in Spain. The results show a high degree of consistency between the estimated and actual SSM time series values when using the three SSM dataset‐calibrated time‐invariable coefficients to retrieve SSM, with coefficients of determination (R²) varying from 0.304 to 0.534 and root mean square errors ranging from 0.020 m³/m³ to 0.029 m³/m³. Further evaluation with different land use types results in acceptable debiased root mean square errors between 0.021 m³/m³ and 0.048 m³/m³ when comparing the estimated MSG pixel‐scale SSM with in situ measurements. These results indicate that the investigated method is practical for deriving time‐invariable coefficients when using publicly accessed coarse‐scale SSM datasets, which is beneficial for generating continuous SSM dataset at the MSG pixel scale.  相似文献   

Reevaluating suitability estimates based on dynamics of cropland expansion in the Brazilian Amazon     

《Global Environmental Change》2016

Agricultural suitability maps are a key input for land use zoning and projections of cropland expansion. Suitability assessments typically consider edaphic conditions, climate, crop characteristics, and sometimes incorporate accessibility to transportation and market infrastructure. However, correct weighting among these disparate factors is challenging, given rapid development of new crop varieties, irrigation, and road networks, as well as changing global demand for agricultural commodities. Here, we compared three independent assessments of cropland suitability to spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001–2012. We found that areas of recent cropland expansion identified using satellite data were generally designated as low to moderate suitability for rainfed crop production. Our analysis highlighted the abrupt nature of suitability boundaries, rather than smooth gradients of agricultural potential, with little additional cropland expansion beyond the extent of the flattest areas (0–2% slope). Satellite-based estimates of the interannual variability in the use of existing crop areas also provided an alternate means to assess suitability. On average, cropland areas in the Cerrado biome had higher utilization (84%) than croplands in the Amazon region of northern Mato Grosso (74%). Areas of more recent expansion had lower utilization than croplands established before 2002, providing empirical evidence for lower suitability or alternative management strategies (e.g., pasture–soya rotations) for lands undergoing more recent land use transitions. This unplanted reserve constitutes a large area of potentially available cropland (PAC) without further expansion, within the management limits imposed for pest management and fallow cycles. Using two key constraints on future cropland expansion, slope and restrictions on further deforestation of Amazon or Cerrado vegetation, we found little available flat land for further legal expansion of crop production in Mato Grosso. Dynamics of cropland expansion from more than a decade of satellite observations indicated narrow ranges of suitability criteria, restricting PAC under current policy conditions, and emphasizing the advantages of field-scale information to assess suitability and utilization.  相似文献