面向防震减灾的人口数据空间化研究——以2007年宁洱地震灾区为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈振拓  李志强  丁文秀  韩贞辉 《震灾防御技术》2012,7(3):273-284

入口是地震灾害的重要受灾体,准确的入口空问分布信息是防震减灾工作的重要依据.本文借助地理信息系统,将人口统计数据与高分辨率遥感数据相结合,应用基于居民地的人口数据空间化方法,模拟人口空间分布.首先根据城市人口—面积异速生长模型的分形几何意义,推导出城乡人口一面积统一模型;进而以2007年宁洱地震灾区为例,在建立居民地分类体系和遥感解译标志的基础上,目视解译获得准确的居民地信息;最后应用城乡人口—面积统一模型获得网格人口密度矢量数据.经检验,本文的结果达到了较高的精度.同时在人口数据空间化完成的基础上,以地震受灾人口估算为例,探讨了人口数据空间化在防震减灾中的应用.研究结果表明,基于网格人口矢量数据的受灾人口估算结果更能客观反映地震灾情,可以为防震减灾和应急救援工作提供可靠的依据.  相似文献   

Comparing models of debris-flow susceptibility in the alpine environment   总被引：12，自引：3，他引：9  

Alberto Carrara  Giovanni Crosta  Paolo Frattini   《Geomorphology》2008,94(3-4):353

Debris-flows are widespread in Val di Fassa (Trento Province, Eastern Italian Alps) where they constitute one of the most dangerous gravity-induced surface processes. From a large set of environmental characteristics and a detailed inventory of debris flows, we developed five models to predict location of debris-flow source areas. The models differ in approach (statistical vs. physically-based) and type of terrain unit of reference (slope unit vs. grid cell). In the statistical models, a mix of several environmental factors classified areas with different debris-flow susceptibility; however, the factors that exert a strong discriminant power reduce to conditions of high slope-gradient, pasture or no vegetation cover, availability of detrital material, and active erosional processes. Since slope and land use are also used in the physically-based approach, all model results are largely controlled by the same leading variables.Overlaying susceptibility maps produced by the different methods (statistical vs. physically-based) for the same terrain unit of reference (grid cell) reveals a large difference, nearly 25% spatial mismatch. The spatial discrepancy exceeds 30% for susceptibility maps generated by the same method (discriminant analysis) but different terrain units (slope unit vs. grid cell). The size of the terrain unit also led to different susceptibility maps (almost 20% spatial mismatch). Maps based on different statistical tools (discriminant analysis vs. logistic regression) differed least (less than 10%). Hence, method and terrain unit proved to be equally important in mapping susceptibility.Model performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies, the number of debris-flow falling within the area classified as unstable by each model, and through the metric of ROC curves. Although all techniques implemented yielded results essentially comparable; the discriminant model based on the partition of the study area into small slope units may constitute the most suitable approach to regional debris-flow assessment in the Alpine environment.  相似文献   

A statistical method for varve verification using seasonal pollen deposition     

Jeannine-Marie St. Jacques  Brian F. Cumming  John P. Smol 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2008,40(2):733-744

We developed a fast, inexpensive, statistically rigorous method of varve verification that uses prospective varve layer-splitting and seasonal pollen deposition. This method can be used on any sediment that contains seasonally deposited pollen, and avoids the need for radio-isotopic, optical, or thermoluminescence dating. The method uses a χ² test and non-parametric regression, together with recorded plant bloom times from pollen traps, to assess the differences in pollen abundances in light/dark (i.e. summer/winter-spring) sediment layers. A statistical test is required because such seasonally deposited data are inherently noisy, with a low signal-to-noise ratio. To illustrate this approach, visible laminations of Lake Mina, Minnesota, USA, were assessed in two separate regions of a core spanning 900 years. Results show that the laminations were deposited annually.  相似文献   

Statistical identification of seismicity phases     

A. Pievatolo  R. Rotondi 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,173(3):942-957

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Earthquake prediction: probabilistic aspect     

G. Molchan  V. Keilis-Borok 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,173(3):1012-1017

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特高压电气设备抗震设计反应谱特征周期取值研究     

尤红兵  赵凤新  尤贺 《中国地震研究》2015,29(1):117-127

特征周期是抗震设计反应谱的重要参数,开展特高压电气设备抗震设计反应谱特征周期的研究,具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。对美国、日本等世界范围内的1448 条Ⅲ类场地水平向强震记录进行了统计分析,结果表明震级、震中距对特征周期有较大影响;强震记录特征周期的80%分位数结果约为0.9s。对全国近年来已通过评审的312 个Ⅲ类场地的地震安全性评价结果进行了统计分析,70%分位数的特征周期为0.9s。结合相关规范的对比分析,建议特高压电气设备抗震设计反应谱的特征周期取0.9s,可有效保证特高压电气设备的地震安全。  相似文献   

A statistical evaluation of the potential genotoxic activity in the surface waters of the Golden Horn Estuary     

Emel Kocak  Kaan Yetilmezsoy  Mustafa Petek 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(10):1708-1717

The potential genotoxic activity in the surface waters of the Golden Horn Estuary was statistically evaluated utilizing a combination of appropriate parametric and non-parametric tests. The genotoxic activities that were associated with the water samples were determined by the SOS chromotest microplate assay. This assay utilizes β-galactosidase activity, alkaline phosphatase activity, and four different solvent controls, to generate reliable results when corrected induction factors (CIF) are used as quantitative measurements of genotoxic activity. The CIF values were obtained from a total of 384 different genotoxic experiments that were grouped into subsets according to the respective seasons and the selected sampling locations. A total of 160 subsets were statistically compared to assess any possible differences between the pairs of groups, with 95% confidence limits. The findings of this study clearly indicate that some seasonal variations exist in the CIF values at several sampling sites. However, no potentially hazardous impact to the aquatic environment was found in the estuarine system.  相似文献   

中山市交通系统地震易损性分析     

杜鹏  聂树明  吴英琴  李晋 《华南地震》2010,30(4):48-54

交通系统地震易损性分析主要是针对系统中的道路、桥梁及路边建筑破坏的影响。分别采用经验统计法、单体桥梁分析方法、瓦砾堆积物计算方法得到了各自对应的道路路段通行概率,而这三个因素共同构成了道路路段的最终通行概率,通过Monte-Carlo算法即可得出交通系统连通可靠性。根据分析结果寻找薄弱环节,为制定相应的防震减灾对策提供依据。  相似文献   

福建地区地震震源深度特征的统计分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

林松建  陈为伟  郑师春 《地震》2010,30(1):82-89

根据福建数字地震台网记录的地震震源深度资料, 统计分析了1998年7月至2008年6月期间福建及邻区M_L≥1.0并有震源深度参数且观测精度为1类地震1431次。 采用0.4°×0.4°网格和以0.2°为滑动步长, 统计了网格内地震的平均深度, 并绘制了平均深度等值线图。 分析结果表明: ① 福建地区地震震源深度总体上呈现东南深、 西北浅的特征, 东南沿海地区平均震源深度大于14 km, 西北地区平均震源深度小于10 km; ② 平均震源深度等值线展布大致呈NE向, 在福建南部地区平均震源深度在沿NE向展布基础上, 还受到NW向断裂控制, 断裂构造通过的地区平均震源深度相对较深; ③ 福建地区地震动力成因与中国大陆其他地区有所不同。  相似文献   

Estimation of Site Effects on Stations in the Capital Circle Region Using the Generalized Inversion Method     

Shi Haixi  Xiu Jigang  Chen Zhangli  Wang Qincai  Hua Wei 《中国地震研究》2010,24(2):198-210

Generalized Inversion Method has been used to estimate the spatial variation of site effects,using the digital data of SH-waves recorded by 63 stations in the Capital Circle Region of China from 2001 to 2006.We gained the site effects of all stations participating in the calculation.We found that the site effect of rock was stabile and about 1.0 from 1.0Hz to 10.0Hz,while the site effect of deposit was high in low frequencies,about 3 ～ 7 from 1.0Hz to 8.0Hz,and the site effect was protuberant at about 5.0Hz,then fell as the frequency increased.The result shows the shape and intensity of station site effects are mainly influenced by the lithology below the station,and possibly also by the local geological structure.  相似文献