北太平洋风暴轴异常变化特征及其与纬向风场的关系研究   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

韩博  任雪娟  杨修群 《气象科学》2007,27(3):237-245

摘要本文通过对300 hPa5、00 hPa和850 hPa的北太平洋风暴轴(PST)的异常研究,分别提取出两个主异常模态进行比较。分析表明在三层的第一主模态都主要对应有PST异常的准10 a的周期变化;而对300 hPa和500 hPa的第二主模态,以及850 hPa的第三模态,对应有更长时间的趋势变化。进一步通过相关的分析,说明PST的异常从低层到高层的变化存在一定的一致性。通过PST与纬向风场在300 hPa的相关分析发现,两个模态与纬向风场的异常在空间上都呈同位相的分布,说明高层纬向风场异常与PST发展可能存在一种互相反馈的作用。进一步通过斜压增长率和水平两维的E-P通量矢的合成分析发现,这种反馈作用,无论从纬向风场异常所产生的环境斜压增长条件的改变,还是从平均动能与扰动动能的转化关系,都是存在的。  相似文献   

"龙王"(LONGWANG)台风过程湿位涡的诊断分析   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

赖绍钧  何芬  赵汝汀  沈桐立  吴启树 《气象科学》2007,27(3):266-271

本文应用MM5V3中尺度数值模式对0519号台风“龙王”过程进行了数值模拟,利用模拟结果计算了台风过程湿位涡(Moist Potential Vorticity,MPV)的演变,从湿位涡的角度研究了台风过程大暴雨的产生机制。结果表明:倾斜涡度发展是“龙王”台风在福建沿海产生大暴雨的重要机制之一,湿位涡能够对暴雨落区的预报有较强的指示性作用,暴雨产生在θse线陡立的对流层中低层MPV1等值线密集带中零线附近,对流层中高层的MPV2负值区可以作为暖湿气流或涡旋活动的示踪;另外,对流层中高层中高纬度冷空气扩散南下与台风的东南暖湿空气在福建沿海交汇,加剧了气旋性涡度发展,对暴雨的发生发展也有巨大的作用。  相似文献   

资源卫星（可见光）遥感数据获取任务调度优化算法研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

徐雪仁  宫鹏  黄学智  金勇 《遥感学报》2007,11(1):109-114

从资源卫星（可见光）遥感数据获取任务调度的影响因子分析入手,在研究国外相关遥感任务调度算法的基础上,提出了基于目标的卫星遥感任务调度算法规则,并依据该规则研究建立了算法实现流程,以解决用户需求和星地资源使用约束之间的冲突,从而有效地满足用户对遥感数据的需求。  相似文献   

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model for natural channels     

R. Gopakumar  P. P. Mujumdar 《水文研究》2009,23(12):1753-1767

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model (FDFRM) for natural channels is presented, wherein the flood wave can be approximated to a monoclinal wave. This study is based on modification of an earlier published work by the same authors, where the nature of the wave was of gravity type. Momentum equation of the dynamic wave model is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. Hence, the FDFRM gets rid of the assumptions associated with the momentum equation. Also, it overcomes the necessity of calculating friction slope (S_f) in flood routing and hence the associated uncertainties are eliminated. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on an equation for wave velocity, which is obtained in terms of discontinuities in the gradient of flow parameters. The channel reach is divided into a number of approximately uniform sub‐reaches. Training set required for development of the fuzzy rule based model for each sub‐reach is obtained from discharge‐area relationship at its mean section. For highly heterogeneous sub‐reaches, optimized fuzzy rule based models are obtained by means of a neuro‐fuzzy algorithm. For demonstration, the FDFRM is applied to flood routing problems in a fictitious channel with single uniform reach, in a fictitious channel with two uniform sub‐reaches and also in a natural channel with a number of approximately uniform sub‐reaches. It is observed that in cases of the fictitious channels, the FDFRM outputs match well with those of an implicit numerical model (INM), which solves the dynamic wave equations using an implicit numerical scheme. For the natural channel, the FDFRM outputs are comparable to those of the HEC‐RAS model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Accelerating the convergence of coupled geomechanical‐reservoir simulations     

L. Jeannin  M. Mainguy  R. Masson  S. Vidal‐Gilbert 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2007,31(10):1163-1181

The pressure variations during the production of petroleum reservoir induce stress changes in and around the reservoir. Such changes of the stress state can induce marked deformation of geological structures for stress sensitive reservoirs as chalk or unconsolidated sand reservoirs. The compaction of those reservoirs during depletion affects the pressure field and so the reservoir productivity. Therefore, the evaluation of the geomechanical effects requires to solve in a coupling way the geomechanical problem and the reservoir multiphase fluid flow problem. In this paper, we formulate the coupled geomechanical‐reservoir problem as a non‐linear fixed point problem and improve the resolution of the coupling problem by comparing in terms of robustness and convergence different algorithms. We study two accelerated algorithms which are much more robust and faster than the conventional staggered algorithm and we conclude that they should be used for the iterative resolution of coupled reservoir‐geomechanical problem. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于稀疏AR模型的潮流信号建模与预报   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

卢小鹏  叶庆卫  吕翠兰 《海洋学研究》2015,33(2):14-18

潮流信号处理与预报在很多方面具有非常重要的意义和价值。本文引入信号稀疏表示理论,构建一种稀疏AR模型,寻找各潮流数据间的历史关联性,并进行预报分析。首先由实测潮流信号进行常规AR建模,获得一组过完备稀疏基;其次随机从该过完备稀疏基抽取部分建立欠定方程组,利用稀疏优化算法获得最稀疏的AR系数;多次重复上一步,获得稀疏AR系数的平均以增强稀疏AR模型的稳定性;最后利用这些稀疏AR系数来重构或预测潮流信号。文章针对实测潮流信号,特别是存在多峰值有回流现象的潮流信号,进行了稀疏AR建模与预测的多次实验。实验结果与传统的潮流信号调和预报方法相对比,发现基于稀疏AR模型的潮流预报对于潮流存在多变的现象时,具有明显优越性,从回报结果来看,稀疏AR模型的潮流预报均方差明显小于传统潮流调和分析预报方法。  相似文献   

Deterministic and ensemble storm surge prediction for Atlantic Canada with lead times of hours to ten days     

《Ocean Modelling》2015

Regional deterministic and ensemble surge prediction systems (RDSPS and RESPS respectively) are used to forecast sea levels off the east of Canada and northeast US. The surge models for the RDSPS and RESPS have grid spacings of 1/30° and 1/12° respectively. The models are driven by surface air pressure and 10 m winds generated by operational global deterministic and ensemble prediction systems that are run operationally by the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Surge forecasts are evaluated for the period 1 March, 2013 to 31 March 2014. Based on traditional statistics (e.g., standard deviation of the difference between observations and predictions) both systems are shown to have skill in forecasting surges six days into the future. It is shown however that skill exists beyond six days if allowance is made for errors in the timing of large surges. The usefulness of the RESPS is demonstrated for two positive surges (important for coastal flooding and erosion) and a negative surge (important for safe navigation in shallow water). It is shown that the RESPS can identify events not forecast by the RDSPS, and can also add useful additional information on the timing of the surge, an important consideration in tidally dominated waters. Several new types of display are used to illustrate the sort of information that can be generated by the RESPS to support the issuers of warnings of unusually high and low total water levels.  相似文献   

一种风暴轴逐日监测的方法及应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

顾聪  朱伟军 《气象科学》2015,35(3):268-278

提出了一种风暴轴逐日监测的方法, 可以获得逐日的风暴轴变化情况。并且采用了动态阈值定义了新的风暴轴的强度和位置指数, 从而可以有效对比不同层次、不同区域、不同时间的风暴轴变化情况。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进行了监测结果的诊断分析。结果表明:各气象要素滤波结果都能表现出两个风暴轴主体, 但有位置上的差别。同时可以利用逐日检测的结果求得逐候、逐月的风暴轴监测结果。在不同高度的风暴轴中, 250~300 hPa高度的风暴轴强度最大, 850 hPa有极小值出现, 各层风暴轴强度呈现准正压结构。采用500 hPa高度场风暴轴监测结果做代表, 讨论了两大洋上各自的风暴轴偏强/偏弱、偏东/偏西、偏北/偏南时同期大气环流的500 hPa高度场和300 hPa纬向风场差异。  相似文献   

基于模拟脚本的气象自动绘图系统   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨波  朱文剑  唐文苑 《气象科技》2015,43(4):627-633

气象自动绘图系统（MEPAS）是一款紧贴我国业务数据环境,以MICAPS和GRIB1/GRIB2数据为主要输入源来实现自动化绘图的业务系统。MEPAS集成了多种物理量和对流参数的计算算法,在中尺度分析方面独具特色。MEPAS主要通过编写XML配置文件来模拟脚本,以命令行的方式运行,它学习简单,使用方便,运行稳定,出图高效,可用于业务系统的建设,也可用于气象科研,具有较高的应用推广价值。MEPAS通过模拟脚本实现自动绘图的技术可以被MICPAS借鉴或吸收,以填补MICAPS脚本交互的技术空白。  相似文献   

一种基于Storm编程模型的迭代Topology方案     

杜政颉  王鹏黄焱  郎福通 《成都信息工程学院学报》2014,(1):47-51

为解决Storm编程模型无法处理具有迭代结构的应用程序的问题,从迭代结构程序的特点出发,在Storm编程模型的基础上通过增加Receiver、IBolt、Checker组件组建迭代Topology,设计了一种可以处理迭代结构的编程模型,分析了这种模型实现原理,对这种模型的新增组件和其对应的应用程序接口进行介绍和分析,同时,在Storm系统架构基础上设计了一种迭代Topology的实现方案,描述了这种实现方式下解决具有迭代结构程序的具体过程,最后使用这种模型模拟实现K-Means算法,实例论证这种迭代模型的可行性。  相似文献