基于新型探测资料对西安一次弱降水预报失误的原因分析     

肖贻青  张黎  姚静  刘慧  刘嘉慧敏 《气象科技》2024,52(1):104-115

利用微波辐射计、激光测风雷达、多普勒雷达、相控阵雷达等新型探测资料、地面加密观测资料、ERA5再分析及多模式数值预报结果对2022年4月24日西安城区一次弱降水预报出现明显失误的原因进行分析,结果表明：(1)全球数值预报模式和中尺度数值预报模式对本次过程西安城区均报有明显降水,主要原因为模式对低层相对湿度预报明显偏大;(2)多种新型探测数据分析认为近地层湿度条件较差及中层的绝对水汽含量低,中层的干暖空气不利于成云致雨,垂直上升运动不强,且由于低层非常干燥,使水滴在下沉过程中蒸发,从而无法形成雨滴下落,这些原因共同造成西安城区无降水,低层相对湿度预报偏大是造成这次西安城区降水预报失误的主要原因之一;(3)造成西安城区近地层湿度条件差的原因是城市干热岛效应和低层干暖平流输送,且降水云团翻越秦岭后其湿空气绝热下沉至城区后出现增温降湿,使得城区形成较为深厚的干层,即使有雨滴在下落过程中也会造成更强的蒸发,这也是城区没有降水的重要原因之一;(4)预报员主观预报订正出现空报主要是源于对边界层水汽、抬升条件等关键降水要素缺乏订正能力,且对大城市的干热岛效应和秦岭山区地形影响研究不足。  相似文献   

Occurrence and Distribution of Organic Contaminants in the Aquatic System in Berlin.Part II: Substituted Phenols in Berlin Surface Water     

K. Schmidt-Bumler  Th. Heberer  H.-J. Stan 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1999,27(3):143-149

In a surface water screening, 30 representative surface water samples collected from rivers, canals, and lakes in Berlin were investigated for the presence of 22 substituted phenols. The phenols selected include the 11 phenols considered as “priority pollutants” by the US Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA). Surface water samples were extracted applying solid-phase extraction with styrenedivinylbenzene adsorbent. The recoveries, determined in spiking experiments, were between 80 % and 103 %. After derivatization with N-(tert-butyldimethylsilyl)-N-methyl-trifluoroacetamide (MTBSTFA) the samples were analyzed by capillary gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Phenol, cresols, 2-ethylphenol, 2-chlorophenol, 4-chloro-3-methylphenol, pentachlorophenol, 2-nitrophenol, and 4-nitrophenol were detected in the surface water samples at concentrations between 0.02 μg/L and 7.8 μg/L, respectively. The distribution of these residues in the Berlin surface waters showed that the phenolic residues, with the exception of pentachlorophenol and 2-ethylphenol, do not originate primarily from municipal sewage treatment plants discharges. Some of the phenols are formed naturally or occur as ubiquitous anthropogenic contaminants in the aquatic system.  相似文献   

砂卵石地层土压盾构掘进掌子面稳定性室内试验与三维离散元仿真研究     

王俊  王闯  何川  胡雄玉  江英超 《岩土力学》2018,39(8):3038-3046

采用?800 mm模型土压盾构开展室内掘进试验,以探究砂卵石中土压盾构隧道掌子面失稳诱发地层变形特征。同时,补充开展三维离散元仿真以挖掘室内试验难以获取的掌子面失稳信息,并研究隧道埋深对掌子面稳定性的影响规律。研究结果表明：砂卵石地层中盾构隧道掌子面失稳发展到地表后,沉降曲面呈上大下小逐步收缩的沙漏状,影响范围小于砂土地层。考虑盾构动态掘进过程后,卵石颗粒接触关系变化十分剧烈,掌子面稳定性被削弱,极限支护压力随之增大。掌子面极限支护压力随隧道埋深基本呈线性增加,极限支护压力与初始支护压力之比则随埋深增大而减小。掌子面失稳机制可根据隧道埋深划分为3种模式。与既有研究相比,考虑了盾构动态掘进过程与实际工程更加接近,可为确保砂卵石地层土压盾构隧道施工掌子面稳定提供参考。  相似文献   

东非鲁武马盆地始新统超深水重力流砂岩储层特征及成因     

赵健  张光亚  李志  史卜庆  范国章  王晓丰  温志新  法贵方  孙国桐 《地学前缘》2018,25(2):83-91

鲁武马盆地古近系-新近系发育多套超深水、超大型、富含天然气藏的重力流沉积砂体。以始新统砂体为解剖对象,分析区内重力流砂岩储层特征及成因。结果表明砂体以巨厚层状产出于深海泥岩内部,并与周围泥岩截然接触,测井曲线表现出宏观均一性;岩心揭示此类巨厚砂体是由多期单砂体叠置而成,单砂体是由底部高密度颗粒流和顶部低密度浊流两部分组成,且经历过强底流改造。鲁武马河流三角洲强大物源供给决定了区内砂体分布面积和体积规模;深海滑塌、块体搬运等重力流沉积过程控制了沉积体粒序构造和内部结构;海底区域性强底流持续冲刷并携带走单砂体顶部细粒沉积物,残留了底部“干净”的中粗粒砂岩;多期沉积事件和频繁水道迁移决定了砂体纵、横向叠加展布,并最终形成了区内厚度巨大、岩性宏观均一且连通性极好的超大型深水重力流沉积砂岩储层。  相似文献   

SENSITIVITY TESTS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN LAND SURFACE PHYSICAL PROCESS AND ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER^*          下载免费PDF全文

LIU Shuhu  WEN Pinghui  ZHANG Yunyan  HONG Zhongxiang  HU Fei  LIU Huizhi 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2002,16(4):451-469

In this paper,an interactive model between land surface physical process and atmosphere boundary layer is established,and is used to simulate the features of soil environmental physics,surface heat fluxes,evaporation from soil and evapotranspiration from vegetation and structures of atmosphere boundary layer over grassland underlying.The sensitivity experiments are engaged in primary physics parameters.The results show that this model can obtain reasonable simulation for diurnal variations of heat balance,soil volumetric water content,resistance of vegetation evaporation,flux of surface moisture,and profiles of turbulent exchange coefficient,turbulent momentum,potential temperature,and specific humidity.The model developed can be used to study the interaction between land surface processes and atmospheric boundary layer in city regions,and can also be used in the simulation of regional climate incorporating a mesoscale model.  相似文献   

Socio-economic vulnerability due to climate change: Deriving indicators for fishing communities in Mumbai     

《Marine Policy》2017

This paper assessed the socio-economic implications of climate change and vulnerability of fishing communities known as “Koli” living in Mumbai, India. The vulnerability indicators are derived from sustainable livelihood literature and use of multi-criteria analyses and are validated with expert opinions. A survey of two hundred fishermen from five fishing villages in Mumbai was conducted to collect data. The results demonstrate that vulnerability perpetuates due to physical and financial resource constraints among the fishing community. Fishermen from Madh and Worli villages are observed to be more vulnerable and less adaptive due to their inability to use efficient mechanized boats and advanced fishing implements, such as fish finders and GPS (Global Positioning System). The divergence in the vulnerability scores among fishing villages is attributed to the coping strategies, resource availability, knowledge and the benefit derived from the local government. Fishermen have been observing the negative impacts of climate change on their fishing livelihoods. Adaptation strategies to maximize fish catch are observed in such practices as targeting different species and fishing intensively for several days. However, these practices are leading to an imbalance in the common resource pool and biased resource sharing among different groups of fishermen.  相似文献   

冲绳海槽热液柱动力过程的数值模拟     

岑显荣  郭双喜  鲁远征  屈玲  周生启 《海洋与湖沼》2017,48(6):1435-1445

本文以冲绳海槽伊平屋北部热液区(126o53.80′,27o45.50′)的现场水文数据作为背景条件,使用k-ε湍流模型模拟热液柱的动力过程。模拟计算得到的羽流速度、温度和湍流耗散率等基本物理量展现了热液柱的时空演化过程。模拟结果显示,羽流最大上升高度及中性浮力面高度与海底的距离分别为83.62m和68.97m,和2014年先导专项在此附近热液区所观测的温度异常和盐度异常的深度位置(离海底约66—86m)接近。羽流的上升速度满足高斯分布,其半径b与距喷口高度z-H成正比:b=0.0985(z-H),其中z为距海底高度,H为热液烟囱体的高度。羽流的最大体积通量比喷口的初始值增加了878倍,达1.034m~3/s;在中性浮力面位置附近,动量通量达到最大值,为0.156m~4/s~2,比初始值增加了882倍;浮力通量在中性浮力面以下和BM2000(Bloomfield et al,2000)理论模型符合良好,在中性浮力面以上则呈现随高度先增加后减小的特征。本文计算得到的平均卷挟率为α≈0.0807,与背景流较弱的热液区的声学现场观测结果相符。  相似文献   

渤海表层沉积物中的生物硅   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

代振飞  薛勇  章海波  涂晨  骆永明 《海洋科学》2017,41(5):42-49

采用0.1 mol/L HCl和1%Na2CO3两步连续提取法,对103个渤海表层沉积物样品的生物硅含量进行了分析,结果表明,渤海表层沉积物中生物硅含量范围为7.3~54.7 g/kg,均值31.5 g/kg,高于其他相关调查,原因可能是由于采用0.1 mol/L HCl提取过程中,破坏了生物硅表面的金属氧化膜。对沉积物生物硅含量的空间分布表征显示,莱州湾是沉积物生物硅的低值区、而渤海湾与辽东湾之间的河北沿岸海域是相对高值区,初步认为是陆源营养物质的输入与黄河泥沙长期不断输入干扰沉积环境的稳定性,造成了该海域表层沉积物生物硅分布差异。主成分分析显示,生物硅含量与沉积物黏粒含量、细粉砂、有机氮、有机碳的含量均呈极显著正相关(P0.01),进一步证实沉积物粒度特征和营养环境对生物硅积累的影响。  相似文献   

A proposal for the theoretical analysis of the interactive coupled effects between urbanization and the eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

Chuanglin Fang  Chenghu Zhou  Chaolin Gu  Liding Chen  Shuangcheng Li 《地理学报(英文版)》2017,27(12):1431-1449

Mega-urban agglomerations are strategic core areas for national economic development and the main regions of new urbanization. They also have important roles in shifting the global economic center of gravity to China. However, the development of mega-urban agglomerations has triggered the interactive coercion between resources and the eco-environment. The interactive coupled effects between urbanization and the eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations represent frontier and high-priority research topics in the field of Earth system science over the next decade. In this paper, we carried out systematic theoretical analysis of the interactive coupling mechanisms and coercing effects between urbanization and the eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations. In detail, we analyzed the nonlinear-coupled relationships and the coupling characteristics between natural and human elements in mega-urban agglomerations. We also investigated the interactive coercion intensities between internal and external elements, and the mechanisms and patterns of local couplings and telecouplings in mega-urban agglomeration systems, which are affected by key internal and external control elements. In addition, we proposed the interactive coupling theory on urbanization and the eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations. Furthermore, we established a spatiotemporal dynamic coupling model with multi-element, multi-scale, multi-scenario, multi-module and multi-agent integrations, which can be used to develop an intelligent decision support system for sustainable development of mega-urban agglomerations. In general, our research may provide theoretical guidance and method support to solve problems related to mega-urban agglomerations and maintain their sustainable development.  相似文献   

The Implementation Effects of a Nationwide Sloping Farmland Soil Erosion Control Project in China     

FENG Wei  YANG Yunfen  ZHAO Yongjun  DI Baofeng  MA Changchen 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2017,8(4):341-351

To understand implementation of a nationwide sloping farmland soil erosion comprehensive control project during China’s 12^th Five-Year Plan we used data collection and expert consultation. We selected 24 indexes across three aspects including project management, engineering construction and implementation benefit and used AHP-grey correlation analysis methods. We found that the scores for engineering construction were greater than 0.65 in most of the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. These scores are high and scores for project management and implementation benefit are between 0.45-0.65; however, overall scores are low. The comprehensive evaluation results are normally distributed. The composite scores for Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou are 0.71, 0.68 and 0.68 respectively, indicating that the implementation effects are good. The scores for Jilin and Liaoning are 0.38 and 0.42 respectively, indicating that the implementation effects need improvement. Scores for other provinces are between 0.45-0.65 and the effects are medium. The evaluation results show certain zonal rules spatially and the implementation effect in karst regions of Southwest China is the highest, followed by the purple soil region in Southwest China, Loess Plateau region of Northwest China, earth-rock mountain region of North China and red soil hilly region of South China. The implementation effect in the black soil region of Northeast China suggests that improvement is needed in this region.  相似文献