1974—2013年甘肃冰雹日数的变化特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

黄玉霞  王宝鉴  王研峰  黄武斌  孔祥伟  谭丹  李文莉 《气象》2017,43(4):450-459

利用甘肃省1974—2013年80个观测站的冰雹观测资料和NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料,通过统计分析和物理量诊断等方法,对1974—2013年甘肃冰雹日数的变化特征进行了分析,结果表明：冰雹总的分布特征是高原和高山多,河谷、盆地、沙漠戈壁少,多年平均降雹日数在0.05~9 d之间,有三个高发中心,主要位于高原和高山地区,说明海拔高度对甘肃冰雹的形成具有重要影响。降雹最早始于3月,最晚结束于11月,主要发生在5—8月。近40年年冰雹日数呈明显的下降趋势,20世纪70—80年代是冰雹的高发期,进入21世纪以后迅速减少,全省而言每10年减少0.5 d。5—8月冰雹日数总体上也呈下降趋势,但各月的年际和年代际变化又具有显著的差异性。除河西地区外,甘肃其他四个区的年冰雹日数均发生了显著减少突变。对5月甘肃降雹偏多年和偏少年的对比分析表明,作为一种强烈的对流运动,降雹偏多年首先表现出对流不稳定能量的异常偏高,能够达到常年的两倍以上,其次发现环境温、湿层结在偏多年份朝着冰雹在积雨云中形成、增长及其落地前融化等一系列物理过程的有利条件方向发展,例如500 hPa有一明显的温度槽且较常年偏低2℃左右,低层水汽增多、中层减少,形成了“上干下湿”的不稳定层结配置,有适宜生长和降落的0℃层（3900～4500 m）和-20℃高度（6400～7000 m）。此外,200 hPa涡旋特征的出现保证了一支强上升气流支撑空中冰雹的增长。  相似文献   

抚仙湖流域植被覆盖度时空分异及其与坡度的关系     

李石华  金宝轩  周峻松  王金亮  彭双云 《地域研究与开发》2017,36(3)

采用像元二分模型,以1974-2014年间的10期Landsat 5/8影像和DEM数据,对抚仙湖流域植被覆盖动态变化进行监测,并结合基础地理信息数据、行政区划界资料、行业部门专题资料等,分析流域植被覆盖时空分异及其与坡度的关系.结果表明:(1)1974-2014年,抚仙湖流域裸地(Ⅰ级)面积波动极小,低植被覆盖(Ⅱ级)、中低植被覆盖(Ⅲ级)、中高植被覆盖(Ⅳ级)面积变化波动大,变化趋势线数次出现谷值和峰值,高植被覆盖(Ⅴ级)面积则呈增加趋势.(2)坡度较小、地势较平缓的区域(0°~15°)以裸地和低植被覆盖为主;中低植被覆盖度、中高植被覆盖和高植被覆盖度主要分布在地势比较陡峭的区域(>15°).(3)抚仙湖流域各年份植被覆盖度Ⅰ级面积最大,1974,1977,1989,1996年Ⅱ,Ⅲ级面积较大,而Ⅳ,Ⅴ级面积较小;2000年后的Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅳ级面积变化较小;2006,2009,2012,2014年Ⅳ,Ⅴ级的面积较大,Ⅱ,Ⅲ级的面积较小.  相似文献   

Monitoring ecosystem dynamics in northwestern Ethiopia using NDVI and climate variables to assess long term trends in dryland vegetation variability     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

Dryland ecosystems are highly vulnerable to environmental changes. Monitoring is vital in order to evaluate their response to fluctuating rainfall and temperature patterns for long-term ecosystem safeguarding. Monitoring of long term changes of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate variables are fundamental for better understanding of change trajectories in dryland ecosystem, and to ascertain their potential interaction with anthropogenic drivers. In this study, we identify determinant factors of dryland changes by using MODIS NDVI, precipitation and temperature data for Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST) and Mann Kendall test statistic. BFAST predicts iteratively time and number of changes within a time series data to depict the size and direction of changes. Analysis of NDVI, precipitation and temperature time series data showed substantial changes during the study period of 2000–2014. There is a reduction trend in vegetation showed by the decline in NDVI, with significant breakpoints till 2009 and recovery afterwards, without a significant change in annual trends of precipitation (α < 0.05) for the same study period. Furthermore 2 positive climate trends were founded: a) a significant positive trend on long term annual rainfall during the main rainy seasons and; 2) a significant (α < 0.05) annual increment of the long term mean minimum and mean maximum temperature of 0.03 °C/year and 0.04 °C/year, respectively. This assessment showed that climate variables cannot be considered as the main factors in explaining the observed patterns of vegetation dynamics. Seasonal and interannual precipitation changes have a lower weight as driving factors for the reduction in vegetation trends. Hence, the decline in vegetation productivity of the region can be attributed to the increasing pressure of human activities.  相似文献   

CO₂ seasonal variation and global change: Test global warming from another point of view     

XiuMing Liu  JiaSheng Chen 《寒旱区科学》2017,9(1):46-53

CO₂ and temperature records at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and other observation stations show that the correlation between CO₂ and temperature is not significant. These stations are located away from big cities, and in various latitudes and hemispheres. But the correlation is significant in global mean data. Over the last five decades, CO₂ has grown at an accelerating rate with no corresponding rise in temperature in the stations. This discrepancy indicates that CO₂ probably is not the driving force of temperature change globally but only locally (mainly in big cities). We suggest that the Earth''s atmospheric concentration of CO₂ is too low to drive global temperature change. Our empirical perception of the global warming record is due to the urban heat island effect:temperature rises in areas with rising population density and rising industrial activity. This effect mainly occurs in the areas with high population and intense human activities, and is not representative of global warming. Regions far from cities, such as the Mauna Loa highland, show no evident warming trend. The global monthly mean temperature calculated by record data, widely used by academic researchers, shows R²=0.765, a high degree of correlation with CO₂. However, the R² shows much less significance (mean R²=0.024) if calculated by each record for 188 selected stations over the world. This test suggests that the inflated high correlation between CO₂ and temperature (mean R²=0.765-0.024=0.741) used in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was very likely produced during data correction and processing. This untrue global monthly mean temperature has created a picture:human emission drives global warming.  相似文献   

东海陆架区的温、盐度逆转现象(Ⅰ)     

蓝淑芳  顾传宬  傅秉照 《海洋湖沼通报》1993,(3)

本文根据国家海洋局1975—1979年标准断面调查资料,对东海陆架区出现的温、盐度逆转现象进行定义和划分;通过统计分析得出,在东海陆架区出现两个逆转现象高频海区,一个位于江苏、浙江近海和外海的一狭长海域内,另一个位于济州岛以南和以西海域。通过对逆转现象成因的讨论认为,前者高频区主要是由于几个不同水团的叠置、交汇、相互作用的结果;由于气旋型涡旋的存在和黄海暖流水附近冷水块的出现而伴生的海水上升运动是导致后者高频区的因素。  相似文献   

晚新生代红粘土的粒度分布及其指示的冬季风演变   总被引：12，自引：1，他引：12  

曹军骥  张小曳  程燕  鹿化煜 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2001,21(3):99-106

晚新生代黄土高原红粘土的粒度分布具有明显的三峰分布 ,分别在 2～ 2 0、2 0～ 10 0和 0 .0 4～ 1μm出现峰值 ,每个峰值对应于不同的形成过程 ,与晚第四纪黄土一致。方式 C粒子 (0 .0 4～ 1μm)可能代表本底气溶胶粒子的沉积物 ,方式 A粒子 (2 0～ 10 0μm)代表冬季风尘暴搬运的大气粉尘 ,方式 B粒子 (2～ 2 0μm)代表冬季风正常搬运的大气粉尘。红粘土的粒度分布表明 ,东亚冬季风环流而非北半球西风环流控制着红粘土物质的堆积过程。红粘土中 >19μm的粗粒子组分指示了东亚冬季风演化历史 :6 .5 Ma BP冬季风开始发育 ,5 .2～ 4.5 Ma BP冬季风减弱并达到最低值 ,4.5～ 3.6 Ma BP冬季风由弱变强 ,3.6～ 2 .6 Ma BP冬季风快速增强并达到最大值。  相似文献   

Seasonal feeding ecology of cod (Gadus morhua L.) on the Norwegian Skagerrak coast     

Hop  Haakon; Gjosaeter  Jakob; Danielssen  Didrik S. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1992,49(4):453-461

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Timing of deep convection in the Greenland and Iceland Seas   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7  

Malmberg  Svend-Aage; Jonsson  Steingrimur 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1997,54(3):300-309

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ERA5再分析地面气温数据在中国区域的适用性分析     

刘婷婷  朱秀芳  张世喆  徐昆  郭锐 《热带气象学报》2023,(1):78-88

再分析资料被广泛用于气候科学及相关研究,但同一再分析数据产品在全球不同区域的适用性存在差别,应用前需要进行评价。欧洲中期天气预报中心推出的第五代再分析产品ERA5,自发布起就受到了广泛的关注,但其在我国的评估都集中在局部区域,且没有关注到对极端气候的模拟能力。以全国728个气象站点温度数据为参考,使用平均绝对误差、均方根误差和Pearson相关系数对比分析了ERA5再分析温度数据在不同时间尺度（月、季）、不同气候区、不同海拔梯度上的精度以及对极端温度事件（包括热浪和寒潮）的刻画能力。结果显示：ERA5数据的日均温的精度最高,日最低温精度最差;ERA5数据春秋两季较冬夏两季的精度高,低海拔区域较高海拔区域精度高, 在高原气候区精度最低,在北亚热带精度最高;ERA5对于极端温度事件的刻画能力不足,在进行极端气候的相关研究时需要谨慎使用。  相似文献   

An experimental,analytical and numerical study on the thermal efficiency of energy piles in unsaturated soils     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2016

Energy piles are bi-functional foundation elements used as structural support as well as ground heat exchangers for shallow geothermal energy systems. Because they are relatively short, energy piles may be partially embedded in unsaturated soils. Saturation conditions influence the thermal properties of the ground and therefore the heat exchange rate, which in turn affects the efficiency of energy piles. This paper combines analytical, experimental and numerical investigations to evaluate the heat exchange rate of energy piles partially or fully embedded in unsaturated soils. The proposed analytical solution is based on the cylindrical heat source theory that treats the soil as a semi-infinite, homogeneous, and isotropic medium. The solution from this theory is multiplied by a function developed analytically in this paper and the outcome is the heat exchange rate for energy piles in unsaturated soils. The proposed function depends on soil saturation, soil and pile thermal properties, and pile geometry. The analytical solution was compared against a finite element solution; which was in turn validated against results from laboratory experiments. Very satisfactory agreements between the analytical, numerical and experimental outputs were observed. The proposed method can be used for a quick and simple evaluation of the efficiency of energy piles in unsaturated conditions. The proposed analytical solution can also be a useful tool for the verification of numerical codes developed for the design of energy piles in unsaturated soils.  相似文献