Stress transfer in earthquakes, hazard estimation and ensemble forecasting: Inferences from numerical simulations     

John B. Rundle  Paul B. Rundle  Andrea Donnellan  P. Li  W. Klein  Gleb Morein  D.L. Turcotte  Lisa Grant   《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):109

Observations indicate that earthquake faults occur in topologically complex, multi-scale networks driven by plate tectonic forces. We present realistic numerical simulations, involving data-mining, pattern recognition, theoretical analyses and ensemble forecasting techniques, to understand how the observable space–time earthquake patterns are related to the fundamentally inaccessible and unobservable dynamics. Numerical simulations can also help us to understand how the different scales involved in earthquake physics interact and influence the resulting dynamics. Our simulations indicate that elastic interactions (stress transfer) combined with the nonlinearity in the frictional failure threshold law lead to the self-organization of the statistical dynamics, producing 1) statistical distributions for magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes that have characteristics similar to those possessed by the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distributions observed in nature; and 2) clear examples of stress transfer among fault activity described by stress shadows, in which an earthquake on one group of faults reduces the Coulomb failure stress on other faults, thereby delaying activity on those faults. In this paper, we describe the current state of modeling and simulation efforts for Virtual California, a model for all the major active strike slip faults in California. Noting that the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) uses statistical distributions to produce earthquake forecast probabilities, we demonstrate that Virtual California provides a powerful tool for testing the applicability and reliability of the WGCEP statistical methods. Furthermore, we show how the simulations can be used to develop statistical earthquake forecasting techniques that are complementary to the methods used by the WGCEP, but improve upon those methods in a number of important ways. In doing so, we distinguish between the “official” forecasts of the WGCEP, and the “research-quality” forecasts that we discuss here. Finally, we provide a brief discussion of future problems and issues related to the development of ensemble earthquake hazard estimation and forecasting techniques.  相似文献   

Enhanced management of personal astronomical data with FITSManager     

Chenzhou Cui  Dongwei FanYongheng Zhao  Ajit KembhaviBoliang He  Zihuang CaoJian Li  Deoyani Nandrekar 《New Astronomy》2012,17(2):167-174

Although the roles of data centers and computing centers are becoming more and more important, and on-line research is becoming the mainstream for astronomy, individual research based on locally hosted data is still very common. With the increase of personal storage capacity, it is easy to find hundreds to thousands of FITS files in the personal computer of an astrophysicist. Because Flexible Image Transport System (FITS) is a professional data format initiated by astronomers and used mainly in the small community, data management toolkits for FITS files are very few. Astronomers need a powerful tool to help them manage their local astronomical data. Although Virtual Observatory (VO) is a network oriented astronomical research environment, its applications and related technologies provide useful solutions to enhance the management and utilization of astronomical data hosted in an astronomer’s personal computer. FITSManager is such a tool to provide astronomers an efficient management and utilization of their local data, bringing VO to astronomers in a seamless and transparent way. FITSManager provides fruitful functions for FITS file management, like thumbnail, preview, type dependent icons, header keyword indexing and search, collaborated working with other tools and on-line services, and so on. The development of the FITSManager is an effort to fill the gap between management and analysis of astronomical data.  相似文献   

AstroGrid CEA架构的应用研究     

汪晶晶  季凯帆  王锋  邓辉 《天文研究与技术》2012,(3):323-328

AstroGrid是一个成熟并已广泛运用的英国虚拟天文台(VO-Virtual Observatory)项目。公共执行架构(Common Execution Architecture,CEA)作为其重要组成部分,通过构建一套合理的接口和框架实现对虚拟天文台天文应用执行过程的建模。详细介绍了AstroGrid CEA的实现原理、基本架构、接口分析和应用模型,并通过CEA实现中国科学技术大学光谱处理数据的发布,完成基于FITS格式的锥型检索服务,最后在此基础上就如何运用CEA进行完整的讨论。  相似文献   

复杂环境电梯试验塔定向控制爆破拆除技术          下载免费PDF全文

韩文红  顾云  刘迪  孙飞  李飞  陈顺禄 《探矿工程》2021,48(11):123-129

介绍了采用控制爆破技术拆除复杂环境下的钢筋混凝土电梯试验塔的设计及施工过程,对爆破效果进行了分析总结。针对剪力墙结构电梯井特点,对非承重结构剪力墙、柱梁以及部分承重剪力墙进行预拆除,确定合理的爆破高度、切口形式和倾倒角度;采用合理半秒延期时间增加了结构物作用时间,保证了电梯试验塔按照设计失稳定向倾倒。对安全防护设计进行校核,爆破后未对周围环境和设施造成影响,达到了预期的爆破拆除效果。  相似文献   

吉林省冬季燃煤民居室内CO污染监测分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

谢静芳  董伟  王宁  陈雷  杨靖华  金英子  田忠臣 《气象与环境学报》2014,30(1):75-79

利用多功能无线电采集器在吉林省开展了冬季燃煤民居室内CO、CO₂、气温自动观测和室内外对比观测试验,分析了CO和CO₂浓度的变化特征及与用火规律、室内温度的关系。结果表明：吉林省冬季燃煤民居中普遍存在CO污染,60 %的民居出现浓度持续超过125mg·m^-3的高污染;CO浓度的逐月变化与燃煤量有关,日变化与用火过程、燃烧阶段和燃烧状态有关;在不同季节、不同城市、不同民居、不同室温以及不同燃烧过程中,CO在烟气中所占的比例不同;在点火、持续燃烧、压炉子和熄火等不同燃烧阶段及旺火燃烧、急倒烟和慢倒烟等不同燃烧状态下,CO浓度的变化特征有显著差异。  相似文献   

软基中500 kV输电桩板塔基现场试验与数值模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘振平  贺怀建  白世伟  张华  邹丹  李火兵 《岩土力学》2012,33(4):1031-1039

针对软弱淤泥地质条件下500 kV输电线铁塔桩板基础型式,在对桩进行完整性检测后,又对整个桩板基础进行了现场堆载、上拔力学试验,同时监测板底压力与桩身钢筋计的受力状况以及大板4脚、基柱的位移变形。试验结果表明,桩板基础具有良好的抗压、抗拔性能,在抵御外载荷作用时,表现出良好的整体性,能够很好地满足工程的需要;通过ABAQUS建立计算模型,在模拟结果与试验数据基本一致的基础上,进一步验证了现场试验的结论,为模拟桩板基础其他受力工况提供了可靠的模型依据。  相似文献   

虚拟井约束地震反演方法在台地斜坡带鲕滩储层预测中的应用——以四川盆地龙岗地区某单元为例     

李梅  郗诚  张志让  詹路锋  潘以红  张健  彭勇 《海相油气地质》2012,17(4):73-77

目前的地震反演均是基于已钻井的地质信息,对无井或少井地区的地震储层预测仍然比较困难。采用叠前和叠后混合反演的办法,实现虚拟井约束地震反演,能弥补缺少钻井的缺陷。该方法充分利用了叠前反演分辨率高和叠后反演效率高、抗噪能力强的优点,运用遗传算法原理,在优选控制点处进行精细的叠前地震波形反演以构建虚拟井,然后以虚拟井作为约束信息进行叠后反演,能够达到储层预测的目的。对四川盆地龙岗地区无井台缘斜坡带鲕滩储层进行了应用尝试,预测效果较好。虚拟井约束地震反演方法对油气勘探初期少井或无井研究区的储层预测是行之有效的技术方法之一。  相似文献   

输变电杆塔基础边坡加固防护方法分析     

潘明波  董理金  王鑫国  邱昌巍  彭蛟 《地质灾害与环境保护》2016,(1):98-103

输变电杆塔基础施工过程中经常会遇到人工开挖边坡,且有其行业特点,若发生灾害将会造成不同程度的影响,如增加工程造价、延长工期,甚至危害到人民生命财产安全。文章总结了输变电杆塔基础边坡的加固防护方法,包括坡率法、坡面防护与绿化、支挡加固、排水工程等,最后对不同方法的优缺点及适用范围进行评价,为今后边坡加固防护提供参考。  相似文献   

GYL-200型塔架履带一体式钻机的研制          下载免费PDF全文

肖燕波  张双临  朱慧  陈敏  戴圣海  彭儒金  李勇前 《探矿工程》2016,43(5):59-62

为提高钻机搬迁的方便性,简化竖塔过程,提高施工效率,研制了一种将后移式工勘钻机置于橡胶履带底盘上,并设计了液压起降折叠开放式三角钻塔的塔架履带一体式钻机。同时为不影响钻机原有的斜孔钻进功能,钻机底架设计为旋转支腿结构;为进一步提高钻机的自动化程度,将原手动式卡盘改为液压卡盘。介绍了该塔架履带一体式钻机的结构以及部分参数选择计算。  相似文献   

基于Sketchup和Google Earth的3D虚拟校园建设     

欧阳荣鑫  陈涛  刘力 《测绘软科学研究》2014,(2):116-119

以重庆市第十八中学的虚拟校园建设为例,阐述了基于Sketch Up和Google Earth的具有良好的现实还原度和更短的开发周期的虚拟校园建设方案。同时,指出了一些较重要问题的解决方案。  相似文献