GRAPES全球集合预报系统模式扰动随机动能补偿方案初步探究   总被引：10，自引：5，他引：5  

彭飞  李晓莉  陈静  李红祺 《气象学报》2019,77(2):180-195

为了体现次网格尺度能量升尺度转换过程中存在的不确定性, 文中将随机动能补偿(Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter, SKEB)方案应用于GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球集合预报系统(GRAPES-GEPS), 以更好地表征模式误差并且增大集合离散度。使用的SKEB方案基于具有一定时、空相关特征的随机型以及由数值扩散导致的局地动能耗散率来构造随机流函数强迫。并根据流函数与水平风速旋转分量的关系, 将SKEB方案中的流函数强迫转化为适用于GRAPES全球模式的水平风速扰动。结果表明, SKEB方案的使用一方面能够提高GRAPES对大气动能谱的模拟能力; 另一方面能够改善GRAPES-GEPS的集合离散度与集合平均误差的关系, 增加了集合离散度, 并在一定程度上减小了集合平均误差, 尤其是在热带地区这种改进更为显著。而且该方案使得热带地区连续分级概率评分(CRPS评分)显著减小。就降水预报而言, 从Brier评分与相对作用特征面积(AROC, Area under the Relative Operating Characteristics)的结果来看, SKEB方案有助于改善中国地区小雨[0.1 mm, 10 mm)、中雨[10 mm, 25 mm)与大雨[25 mm, 50 mm)量级降水的概率预报技巧, 而对暴雨[50 mm, ∞)量级降水预报技巧影响很小(24 h降水量)。总体上, 模式扰动随机动能补偿方案提高了GRAPES-GEPS的概率预报技巧。   相似文献   

Household dependence on solid cooking fuels in Peru: An analysis of environmental and socioeconomic conditions     

《Global Environmental Change》2019

Solid fuel use is linked with adverse effects on the environment and human health. Yet, solid fuels remain an important energy source for households in developing countries. Even when country-level dependence on solid fuels is modest, there is often significant variation in within-country patterns of solid fuel use. This study examines a range of environmental and socioeconomic conditions to understand the relationship between them and household energy use within a country. While our results are derived from a study of regional patterns of solid fuel dependence in Peru, the contribution of this study is broad: variables that we include in our models of households’ fuel choice decisions are likely to shape such decisions in most developing countries. Our findings indicate that environmental conditions, such as elevation and forest cover, are associated with solid fuel use. Socioeconomic factors, including urbanization, poverty and female literacy, are similarly important. In addition, we identify nuanced links between types of female employment and indigenous population, on the one hand, and solid fuel use, on the other.  相似文献   

不同检测方法对混凝土波速的影响研究     

沙玲  杜时贵  陈龙珠 《工程地质学报》2007,15(1):124-128

为建立超声波法和低应变反射波法检测所得混凝土基桩波速的相互转换关系,本文给出了标准线性固体模型下粘弹性介质的三维和一维纵波速度之比及其实用简化公式,并且通过实验得出,混凝土构件的超声波速与1.054倍低应变动测波速之比处于1.03~1.12,具体数值会随着混凝土龄期、弹性模量和强度等级的增加而有所减小。  相似文献   

兰州市南山绿化地裸地冬季地表辐射及能量收支对比     

奥银焕  陈玉春  杨胜朋 《高原气象》2007,26(4):693-700

利用2005年12月7~29日在兰州市皋兰山顶获取的地气相互作用观测资料,对比分析了冬季典型晴天和平均状态下绿化地与裸地地表辐射、能量收支及土壤温、湿度的日变化特征。结果表明:绿化地和裸地太阳总辐射、大气长波辐射很接近,地表短波和长波向上辐射因不同下垫面特征不同而差异较大;地表能量平衡绿化地、裸地均以感热输送为主,土壤热通量和潜热输送很小,尤其是潜热通量,峰值往往不超过10 W.m-2;观测发现绿化地感热比裸地高,这一反常现象值得进一步研究证实;观测期平均特征与晴天比较接近,表明云和降雪的扰动影响有限;绿化地、裸地地表日平均反照率相对稳定,绿化地日平均反照率在0.20~0.28之间变化,裸地在0.25~0.31之间变化,平均值分别为0.21和0.29。  相似文献   

雨季前后珠峰地区近地层气象要素、辐射及能量平衡分量变化特征   总被引：7，自引：7，他引：0  

仲雷  马耀明  苏中波  王永杰  吕雅琼  朱志鵾 《高原气象》2007,26(6):1269-1275

利用架设在珠峰北坡4475m高度处的一套开路涡动协方差测量系统,对曲宗地区的大气状况进行了连续观测.分析了近地层气象要素、辐射平衡各分量和能量平衡各分量在高原雨季前(5月),雨季中(7月)和雨季后(11月)的变化特征.通过分析,发现曲宗地区气温和相对湿度日平均变化均呈单峰单谷型特征,气压则呈双峰双谷型特征,风速日变化为单峰型特征,风速一般在午后突然增大.伴随着雨季的爆发,曲宗地区气温升高,相对湿度增大,气压升高,风速减小.主导风向由东北风转换成西南风.雨季前后,辐射平衡各分量及能量平衡各分量均具有明显的变化趋势.  相似文献   

Sediment transport patterns at Trafalgar offshore windfarm     

G. Besio  M.A. Losada 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(7):653-665

A simple analytical model of wave propagation has been developed in order to study the potential sediment transport patterns due to the action of currents and waves in the neighborhood of cylindrical structures as well inside a group of these structures. The attention is focused on the study of Trafalgar offshore windfarm, a case in which it has been necessary to analyze the flow trough porous structures in order to model fish growing-cages planned to be installed at each aerogenerator structure. The results are obtained by averaging over one period of wave in order to evaluate the net potential sediment transport. The analysis of the results reveals how the processes of wave diffraction and reflection give rise to periodic patterns of sediment transport around and between the structures.  相似文献   

Numerical prediction of MODUs drift during Hurricane Katrina     

G.V. Tahchiev  J. Zhang   《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(10):995-1005

Severe hurricanes, such as Katrina, broke the mooring lines of a number of mobile offshore drilling units (MODU) deployed in the Gulf of Mexico and some of those MODUs went adrift. A drifting MODU may damage other critical elements of the offshore oil and gas infrastructure by colliding with floating or fixed production systems and transportation hubs, or by rupturing pipelines owing to their dragging anchors over the seabed. To avoid or mitigate the damage caused by a drifting MODU, it is desirable to understand the mechanics of the drift of a MODU under the impact of severe wind, wave and current and have the capability of predicting the trajectory of the drift. To explore the feasibility and accuracy of predicting the trajectory of a drifting MODU based on hindcast met-ocean conditions and limited knowledge of the condition of the drifting MODU, this study employed a simplified equation describing only the horizontal (surge, sway and yaw) motions of a MODU under the impact of steady wind, current and wave forces. The simplified hydrodynamic model neglects the first- and second-order oscillatory wave forces, unsteady wind forces (owing to wind gustiness), wave drift damping, and the effects of the body oscillation on the steady wind and current forces. It was assumed that the net effects of the oscillatory forces on the steady motion are insignificant. To verify the accuracy and feasibility of our simplified approach, the predicted drifting trajectories of two MODUs were compared with the corresponding measurements recorded by the global positioning system (GPS).  相似文献   

2D Wave setup behind submerged breakwaters     

M. Calabrese  D. Vicinanza  M. Buccino   《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(10):1015-1028

In addition to reducing the incoming wave energy, submerged breakwaters also cause a setup of the sea level in the protected area, which is relevant to the whole shadow zone circulation, including alongshore currents and seaward flows through the gaps. This study examines such a leading hydraulic parameter under the simplified hypothesis of 2D motion and presents a prediction model that has been validated by a wide ensemble of experimental data. Starting from an approach originally proposed by Dalrymple and Dean [(1971). Piling-up behind low and submerged permeable breakwaters. Discussion note on Diskin et al. (1970). Journal of Waterways and Harbors Division WW2, 423–427], the model splits the rise of the mean water level into two contributions: one is due to the momentum flux release forced by wave breaking on the structure, and the other is associated with the mass transport process. For the first time, the case of random wave trains has been explicitly considered.  相似文献   

Verification of significant wave representation method     

Winyu Rattanapitikon   《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(11-12):1259-1270

The significant wave representation method is the simplest method for computing the transformation of significant wave height across-shore. However, many engineers are reluctant to use this method because many researchers have pointed out that the method possibly contains a large estimation error. Nevertheless, Rattanapitikon et al. [Rattanapitikon, W., Karunchintadit, R., Shibayama, T., 2003. Irregular wave height transformation using representative wave approach. Coastal Engineering Journal, JSCE 45(3), 489–510.] showed that the wave representation method could be used to compute the transformation of root mean square wave heights. It may also be possible to use it for computing the significant wave height transformation. Therefore, this study was carried out to examine the possibility of simulating significant wave height transformation across-shore by using the significant wave representation method. Laboratory data from small- and large-scale wave flumes were used to calibrate and examine the models. Six regular wave models were applied directly to irregular waves by using the significant wave height and spectral peak period. The examination showed that three regular wave models (with new coefficients) could be used to compute the significant wave height transformation with very good accuracy. On the strength of both accuracy and simplicity of the three models, a suitable model is recommended for computing the significant wave height transformation. The suitable model was also modified for better predictions. The modified model (with different coefficients) can be used to compute either regular wave height or significant wave height transformation across-shore.  相似文献   

Numerical calculation of free-surface potential flow around a ship using the modified Rankine source panel method     

Md. Shahjada Tarafder  Kazuo Suzuki 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(5-6):536-544

A modified Rankine source panel method is presented for solving a linearized free-surface flow problem with respect to the double-body potential. The method of solution is based on the distribution of Rankine sources on the hull as well as its image and on the free surface. An iterative algorithm is used for determining the free surface and wave resistance using upstream finite difference operator. A verification of numerical modeling is made using the Wigley hull and the validity of the computer program is examined by comparing the details of wave profiles and wave making resistance with Series 60 model.  相似文献