The economic impacts of introducing CCER trading and offset mechanism into the national carbon market of China北大核心CSCD     

张宁  庞军 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(5):622-636

基于中国风电及光伏国家核证自愿减排量(CCER)现状及发展趋势,针对CCER供给、抵销和价格形成等关键机制问题,运用电力部门细分的递推动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,模拟了在取消电价补贴的背景下全国碳市场引入风电及光伏CCER交易及抵销机制的经济影响。研究发现:引入CCER交易及抵销机制会降低碳配额交易价格,并缓解取消电价补贴对风电和光伏电力的负面影响,但也会削弱全国碳市场的碳减排效果,且随着CCER供给总量增加这些作用更明显;全国碳市场引入CCER交易及抵销机制后,碳排放强度较高的控排行业将选择购买更多的CCER,其中火电行业是主要的CCER需求方;未来我国如果不放开CCER项目备案审批则风电行业将是主要受益方,而未来适度放开CCER项目备案审批则风电和光伏行业都将从中受益。因此,全国碳市场在引入CCER交易及抵销机制的同时需从紧设置初始碳配额发放量,并可考虑适时重启CCER项目备案审批工作以更好地促进风电和光伏电力的发展,但允许的CCER清缴比例上限应结合碳减排目标合理设定,以避免对全国碳市场产生较大冲击。  相似文献   

冬奥会张家口赛区一次降水相态特征分析     

马梁臣  马洪波  张曦丹  陈子健  李江波 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(1):1-7

利用冬奥会气象观测站网资料、ERA5的0.25°×0.25°高分辨率再分析资料、常规探空资料以及激光雷达和风廓线雷达资料,从环流形势、温湿度和微物理特征以及雷达特征等方面对2020年11月17-19日冬奥会张家口赛区一次明显的雨转雪天气过程进行分析。结果表明：低层前期的暖湿西南气流,为降水提供好的水汽和能量条件,后期强的干冷平流为相态转换提供有利条件。赛区出现雨转雪时,700 hPa温度低于-2℃,同时850 hPa温度低于2℃。零度层高度的快速下降是相态转换的重要温度判据,0℃线降到距地面400 m左右赛区降水相态已经转变为纯雪,低层风向的转向对赛场的雨雪相态转换有一定的指示意义。随着高空云冰和雪水含量逐渐增加,其出现最大值后,雨雪相态开始转换。降雪时激光雷达最大探测高度比降雨时有明显的降低,风廓线雷达低层风场的变化和雨雪相态关系密切,风廓线雷达探测的垂直速度变化也能反映雨雪相态的转换。  相似文献   

Random field modeling of the void phase of soils     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(1):57-68

  相似文献   

中国梯田撂荒程度及空间格局分异研究     

董世杰  辛良杰  李升发  谢花林  赵宇鸾  王学  李秀彬  宋恒飞  卢亚晗 《地理学报》2023,78(1):3-15

在城镇化和工业化的驱动下,中国丘陵山区耕地逐渐被边际化,耕地撂荒范围也迅速从劣质的坡耕地延展至优质的梯田,大规模梯田撂荒将会引发一系列社会和生态效应,科学评估中国山区梯田的撂荒程度及空间分布将有助于有效地应对耕地撂荒问题。本文通过全国抽样调查的方式对中国梯田的撂荒程度进行了调查,利用获取的中国329个县的560份村问卷测算了中国梯田撂荒规模,并进一步分析了梯田撂荒空间分异特征及驱动因素。结果显示：(1)全国梯田撂荒现象分布广泛,发生梯田撂荒的村庄占总调查村庄的比例为54%,撂荒面积占梯田总面积的比例达到9.79%;(2)梯田撂荒程度呈现“南高北低”的特征,南方丘陵山区较为严重,尤以长江中下游地区为最;(3)梯田撂荒的主要因素可归结为农业劳动力外出务工、梯田耕作机械化程度、灌溉条件、耕作交通条件等。减缓梯田撂荒,应因区精准施策,提高梯田区机械化水平等措施具有普适性,针对质量较差的梯田,可有序“退耕”,对于质量较好的梯田,可采用调整种植结构、加强农业基础设施建设、鼓励流转与规模经营等方式。  相似文献   

多普勒天气雷达风场反演技术研究进展   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

周海光 《地球科学进展》2002,17(3):384-390

多普勒天气雷达是研究中小尺度天气系统的重要工具，但却只能提供风场的径向速度，因而必须通过风场反演技术来求解二维或三维风场。详细分析了各种单部、多部和多基地多普勒天气雷达风场反演技术及其优缺点，同时指出了应重点研究的方向。从反演结果来看，基于变分法的反演技术明显优于其它方法，这是今后的一个主要研究方向；利用四维同化理论，在数值模式初始场中使用反演数据，是反演技术应用的重点。  相似文献   

QuikSCAT散射计矢量风统计特征及南海大风遥感分析   总被引：18，自引：5，他引：18  

刘春霞  何溪澄 《热带气象学报》2003,19(Z1):107-117

主要分析了QuikSCAT散射计矢量风资料的统计特征,并利用该资料分析了南海大风频数的月变化、空间分布特征以及南海各月风场的空间分布特征.结果显示QuikSCAT矢量风在南海具有可信性;利用散射计风场资料分析发现在南海主要盛行两种风,即冬季东北风和夏季西南风,东北风最大中心在巴士海峡、台湾海峡;南海中南部存在东北季风的次大中心和西南季风的极大中心.  相似文献   

风速不连续,风向气旋式辐合与江苏省暴雨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈家华  徐抗英 《气象科学》1997,17(2):185-191

本文由五次大暴雨过程总结和探讨了风速不连续、风向气旋式辐合在暴雨发生、发展中的作用及其贡献，为提高预报暴雨发生，发展的准确率，提出了“风速不连续、风向气旋式辐合概述模式”，从而在预报暴雨过程时期从预报思路中受到启迪。  相似文献   

Magnetic remote sensing of Europa’s ocean tides     

Robert H. Tyler 《Icarus》2011,211(1):906-908

Recent analyses of Galileo magnetometer and gravity data justifies approximations that allow estimates of the magnetic fields generated by Europa’s ocean tides to be made even though some of the ocean parameters that would generally be required are unavailable. We show solutions for the magnetic fields generated by published estimates of ocean tides on Europa and provide simple scaling formulas that can be used to estimate the magnetic-field amplitudes for other choices for the ocean tidal state. Because of the distinguished spatial/temporal form of these fields, it is expected that Europa’s ocean tides can be inferred from remote magnetic sensing by an orbiter of sufficient duration.  相似文献   

Differential rotation and meridional flow of Arcturus     

M. Küker  G. Rüdiger 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2011,332(1):83-87

The spectroscopic variability of Arcturus hints at cyclic activity cycle and differential rotation. This could provide a test of current theoretical models of solar and stellar dynamos. To examine the applicability of current models of the flux transport dynamo to Arcturus, we compute a mean‐field model for its internal rotation, meridional flow, and convective heat transport in the convective envelope. We then compare the conditions for dynamo action with those on the Sun. We find solar‐type surface rotation with about 1/10th of the shear found on the solar surface. The rotation rate increases monotonically with depth at all latitudes throughout the whole convection zone. In the lower part of the convection zone the horizontal shear vanishes and there is a strong radial gradient. The surface meridional flow has maximum speed of 170 m/s and is directed towards the equator at high and towards the poles at low latitudes. Turbulent magnetic diffusivity is of the order 10¹⁵–10¹⁶ cm²/s. The conditions on Arcturus are not favorable for a circulation‐dominated dynamo (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Modeling spatio‐temporal nonlocality in mean‐field dynamos     

M. Rheinhardt  A. Brandenburg 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2012,333(1):71-77

When scale separation in space or time is poor, the mean‐field α effect and turbulent diffusivity have to be replaced by integral kernels by which the dependence of the mean electromotive force on the mean magnetic field becomes nonlocal. Earlier work in computing these kernels using the test‐field method is now generalized to the case in which both spatial and temporal scale separations are poor. The approximate form of the kernel for isotropic stationary turbulence is such that it can be treated in a straightforward manner by solving a partial differential equation for the mean electromotive force. The resulting mean‐field equations are solved for oscillatory α –shear dynamos as well as α² dynamos with α linearly depending on position, which makes this dynamo oscillatory, too. In both cases, the critical values of the dynamo number is lowered due to spatio‐temporal nonlocality.When scale separation in space or time is poor, the mean‐field α effect and turbulent diffusivity have to be replaced by integral kernels by which the dependence of the mean electromotive force on the mean magnetic field becomes nonlocal. Earlier work in computing these kernels using the test‐field method is now generalized to the case in which both spatial and temporal scale separations are poor. The approximate form of the kernel for isotropic stationary turbulence is such that it can be treated in a straightforward manner by solving a partial differential equation for the mean electromotive force. The resulting mean‐field equations are solved for oscillatory α –shear dynamos as well as α² dynamos  相似文献