Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of hydroclimatic time series with focus on the German part of the Elbe River Basin          下载免费PDF全文

D. Markovic  M. Koch 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2202-2211

Long‐term variations and temporal scaling of mean monthly time series of river flow, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, duration of bright sunshine, degree of cloud cover, short wave radiation, wind speed and potential evaporation within or in vicinity of the German part of the Elbe River Basin are analyzed. Statistically significant correlations between the 2–15 year scale‐averaged wavelet spectra of the hydroclimatic variables and the North Atlantic Oscillation‐ and Arctic Oscillation index are found which suggests that such long‐term patterns in hydroclimatic time series are externally forced. The Hurst parameter estimates (H) based on the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) indicate persistence for discharge, precipitation, wind speed, air pressure and the degree of cloud cover, all having an annual cycle and a broad low‐frequency distribution. Also, DFA H parameter estimates are higher for discharge than for precipitation. The major long‐term quasi‐periodic variability modes of precipitation detected using Singular Spectrum Analysis coincide with those detected in the discharge time series. Upon subtraction of these low‐frequency quasi‐periodic modes, the DFA H parameter estimates suggest absence of the persistence for both precipitation and discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

石羊河下游人工梭梭林土壤呼吸变化特征及其与水热因子的关系          下载免费PDF全文

王新友  马全林  靳虎甲  樊宝丽  张进虎  林慧龙 《干旱区地理》2019,42(3):570-580

土壤呼吸不仅是反映土壤生物活性的重要指标，也是全球碳循环研究中备受关注的热点问题。在地处典型干旱区的石羊河下游，以流动沙丘和去除土壤结皮人工梭梭林为对照，采用LI-8100土壤碳通量监测系统研究了栽植约40 a、30 a、10 a和5 a的人工梭梭林生长季和非生长季的土壤呼吸日变化，并分析了土壤水分和温度对土壤呼吸的影响。结果表明：（1）不同林龄梭梭林生长季和非生长季土壤呼吸速率的日变化均为明显的单峰曲线，且呈现出一定的波动性，日最大排放速率出现在12:00～14:00时，最小值出现在8:00时左右。（2）梭梭林营造和去结皮处理显著提高了沙漠土壤呼吸速率，而且不同林龄土壤呼吸速率大体上随着种植年限的增加而递增，表现为MC >40 a>30 a>10 a>MS >5 a，非生长季表现为MC >40 a>10 a>5 a>30 a>MS。（3）不同林龄梭梭林土壤呼吸速率均具有明显的季节变化特征，生长季（8 月）的土壤呼吸作用明显强于非生长季（1月）。（4）相关性分析表明，生长季和非生长季土壤呼吸均与0～5 cm土壤水分显著相关，且均呈二次曲线关系，分别为Y =-0.205 8X ²+0.946 5X-0.316 6（R ² =0.506 ²，P= 0.041 7）和Y= 0.118 7 X ²+0.156 3X+0.118 8（R ²=0.675 7，P =0.001 1）；但与10 cm土壤温度的相关性不显著，土壤水分是影响人工梭梭林土壤呼吸的关键因素。该研究进一步证明了人工梭梭林的营造有效改善了沙漠土壤的生物活性，提高了土壤碳通量水平，以土壤结皮破坏为基本特征的人工梭梭林退化和沙漠化必然在短期内加剧碳排放。因此，需要在沙漠地区合理营造人工林，并在造林和林业管理过程中注意保护土壤结皮，以减少CO²排放。  相似文献   

一种海洋混合层深度的智能识别方法研究     

张康  郭双喜  黄鹏起  屈玲  鲁远征  岑显荣  于璐莎  周伟东  周生启 《热带海洋学报》2019,38(5):32-41

文章提出了一种识别混合层深度的人工智能方法。该方法在温度(密度)与压强(或深度)间建立线性模型, 并且将其系数和方差做成一组表征廓线特征的统计量。初始时为模型设定一个主观的先验分布, 在一个自海表向下移动的窗口内通过贝叶斯链式法则和最小描述长度原理学习新数据, 得到系数均值的最大后验概率估计。用F-检验识别系数发生突变的位置, 以此确定混合层的存在性及其深度。通过2017年2月太平洋海域的地转海洋学实时观测阵(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography, ARGO)数据进行测试, 并且以质量因子(Quality Index, QI)值作为判断识别混合层深度结果准确性的依据, 发现该方法相比于梯度法、阈值法、混合法、相对变化法、最大角度法和最优线性插值法在识别结果上具备更大的QI值。表明该方法能够准确识别混合层深度。  相似文献   

The vertical influence of temperature and precipitation on snow cover variability in the Central Tianshan Mountains,Northwest China     

Senyao Wu  Xueliang Zhang  Jinkang Du  Xiaobing Zhou  Ye Tuo  Runjie Li  Zheng Duan 《水文研究》2019,33(12):1686-1697

Seasonal snow cover in mountainous regions will affect local climate and hydrology. In this study, we assessed the role of altitude in determining the relative importance of temperature and precipitation in snow cover variability in the Central Tianshan Mountains. The results show that: (a) in the study area, temperature has a greater influence on snow cover than precipitation during most of the time period studied and in most altitudes. (b) In the high elevation area, there is a threshold altitude of 3,900 ± 400 m, below which temperature is negatively correlated whereas precipitation is positively correlated to snow cover, and above which the situation is the opposite. Besides, this threshold altitude decreases from snow accumulated period to snow stable period and then increases from snowmelt period to snow‐free period. (c) Below 2,000 m, there is another threshold altitude of 1,400 ± 100 m during the snow stable period, below (above) which precipitation (temperature) is the main driver of snow cover.  相似文献   

Analysis of resistance factors for LRFD of soil nail pullout limit state using default FHWA load and resistance models     

Hui Hu 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2020,38(3):332-348

Abstract

Resistance factors for load and resistance factor design (LRFD) of pullout limit state of both permanent and temporary soil nails are calibrated against a wide design space using the current Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) nail load and resistance models. The calculated resistance factors were shown to scatter broadly among design scenarios that differ in wall face batter, soil friction angle, nail ultimate bond strength, and surcharge live load. An important lesson learned from the analysis results is that the current practice of using a single resistance factor for LRFD of nail pullout limit state could not result in uniform reliabilities across different design scenarios. Simple artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed for computation of resistance factors. Design examples demonstrated the ability of the ANN models in providing resistance factors that yield satisfactory and consistent reliabilities in different nail pullout designs.  相似文献   

Inference of in situ stress from thermoporoelastic borehole breakouts based on artificial neural network     

Hua Zhang  Shunde Yin 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(16):2493-2511

The determination of in situ stresses is very important in petroleum engineering. Hydraulic fracturing is a widely accepted technique for the determination of in situ stresses nowadays. Unfortunately, the hydraulic fracturing test is time-consuming and expensive. Taking advantage of the shape of borehole breakouts measured from widely available caliper and image logs to determine in situ stress in petroleum engineering is highly attractive. By finite element modeling of borehole breakouts considering thermoporoelasticity, the authors simulate the process of borehole breakouts in terms of initiation, development, and stabilization under Mogi-Coulomb criterion and end up with the shape of borehole breakouts. Artificial neural network provides such a tool to establish the relationship between in situ stress and shape of borehole breakouts, which can be used to determine in situ stress based on different shape of borehole breakouts by inverse analysis. In this paper, two steps are taken to determine in situ stress by inverse analysis. First, sets of finite element modeling provide sets of data on in situ stress and borehole breakout measures considering the influence of drilling fluid temperature and pore pressure, which will be used to train an artificial neural network that can eventually represent the relationship between the in situ stress and borehole breakout measures. Second, for a given measure of borehole breakouts in a certain drilling fluid temperature, the trained artificial neural network will be used to predict the corresponding in situ stress. Results of numerical experiments show that the inverse analysis based on finite element modeling of borehole breakouts and artificial neural network is a promising method to determine in situ stress.  相似文献   

运用人工鱼群算法的3D扫描碎片重建探究     

刘恩盛  程效军  黄玉花 《测绘通报》2019,(3):137-140

针对传统三维碎片拼接匹配过程中依赖单一特征及存在误差累积的问题，提出了一种运用鱼群算法的全局最优匹配方法。该方法先对碎片点云数据进行多特征提取，结合纹理、专家经验信息对混合在一起的多种类型碎片进行粗糙集分类，之后采用鱼群算法的最优解求得最佳匹配方案。实例验证所提全局匹配方法具有能力强、与初始位置无关及较强的稳健性等特点，为三维碎片的全局匹配提供了一种有效的解决方案。  相似文献   

山西夏季不同等级降水时空演变特征及其影响要素研究     

刘焕才  许芃  李曼 《地理科学》2021,41(3):544-552

基于1961—2018年降水观测资料,应用经验正交函数分解（EOF）、大气诊断等方法对山西夏季不同等级降水时空演变特征及其影响要素进行分析。结果表明：① 山西夏季降水量主要由大雨贡献（51.9%）,但在降水频次上以小雨为主。山西大雨与小雨事件存在显著差异。小雨多年平均雨量由南至北递增,而大雨却由南至北递减。此外,EOF表明全区一致型均是不同等级降水中的主空间模态,但在小雨和大雨中高载荷区存在明显差异。② ENSO在影响山西降水特别是大雨中占据主导,而NAO在小雨中作用更为突出。对大气环流异常结构的诊断分析表明,冷（暖）ENSO位相时,源于热带西太平洋并经由南海北上的季风水汽输送增强（减弱）,同时在ENSO和中高纬度大气活动联动调控下,在东亚地区建立的异常反气旋（气旋）可通过其西支南（北）风气流引导（抑制）季风水汽向山西进一步纵深推进,两者共同调配使得山西大雨事件增多（减少）;NAO主要通过一条沿西欧?东欧?乌拉尔山?蒙古高原的高纬度路径对降水施加影响,NAO正（负）位相时,在蒙古高原甚至山西建立的深厚异常（反）气旋通过其南支西（东）风一方面阻挡低纬度季风水汽进入山西,另一方面增强（减弱）山西有限的内陆水汽供应,从而引起山西小雨事件的增多（减少）。  相似文献   

城市暴雨内涝综述：特征、机理、数据与方法   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

黄华兵  王先伟  柳林 《地理科学进展》2021,40(6):1048-1059

建成环境的高空间异质性与致灾过程的复杂性给城市暴雨内涝研究带来巨大的挑战,具体表现为模型代表性不够、计算效率低、基础数据和验证数据匮乏。以机器学习为代表的人工智能技术、高分遥感和互联网大数据的快速发展则为城市暴雨内涝研究提供了新的契机。论文结合人工智能、高分遥感和互联网大数据等新技术发展,从特征、机理、数据与方法4个维度对暴雨内涝的研究现状和发展趋势进行了系统总结,主要结论包括：① 暴雨内涝具有短历时性、空间散布性、连锁性和突变性,其热点呈现空间上的动态迁移特征。② 降雨时空特征和城市化程度决定暴雨内涝灾害的量级,地形条件尤其是微地形则决定发生位置和内涝频率。地形控制作用指数(topographic control index, TCI)对暴雨内涝发生位置具有良好的指示能力。③ 排水管网、高精度地形和不透水面分布是暴雨内涝模拟的关键基础数据;降雨过程的高时空变异性是暴雨内涝近实时预报预警的主要瓶颈,需要充分利用天气雷达观测提高其精准度;互联网众包大数据是获取高空间覆盖度暴雨内涝灾情信息的新途径,但也面临不同类型信息融合、提炼和质量控制的挑战。④ 结合水动力模拟与机器学习可建立兼具物理基础和计算效率的暴雨内涝模拟方法,是实现近实时模拟与快速预报预警的有效途径。  相似文献   

基于TRMM 3B43产品的1998—2016年黄淮海平原降水时空特征研究     

郭斌  邢文雪  李云  赵佳琪  冯凯月  黄壮壮 《地理科学》2021,41(7):1285-1294

以黄淮海平原为研究区,基于59个气象站点的逐月降水数据,采用相关系数（R）、相对误差（BIAS）和均方根误差（RMSE）对TRMM 3B43降水产品的精度进行系统评估,揭示黄淮海平原降水的时空变化规律。研究表明：① TRMM 3B43产品对研究区内大部分气象站点存在轻微高估现象,总体上TRMM产品和站点数据在黄淮海平原的拟合效果较好,且月尺度的精度较年尺度高;② 1998—2016年黄淮海平原年降水和秋季降水增加明显,其余季节降水呈不同程度的减少趋势;③ 研究区降水在空间上呈从南到北递减的趋势,且南北降水差距较大。研究结果为卫星降水产品在中纬度地区水资源评估、农业生产和洪旱灾害等研究提供一定的参考。  相似文献