博白县近50年气候变化特征分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

苏恒  吴益平 《气象研究与应用》2008,29(3)

利用1957～2006年博白国家气象观测站二级站的气象资料,分析了近50a博白县气温、降水和日照的变化特征.分析结果表明,博白县年、冬春季气温呈上升趋势,而夏秋季气温上升不明显,博白县气候正在趋向变暖,特别是最近10a来增温最为明显;年降水总体呈略上升趋势;年日照时数总体呈下降趋势.  相似文献   

2007年深圳市雷电灾害气候特征分析   总被引：10，自引：9，他引：1  

林雨人  高鸿  刘敦训  孙丹波  王海 《气象研究与应用》2008,29(3):46-48

通过对2007年深圳市雷电气候特征、雷电密度分布、重要雷电天气过程分析和雷电灾害情况分析,探讨雷电发生的天气背景以及致灾的成因,为雷电预测预警技术提供科学依据.  相似文献   

Climate Change in China Congruent with the Linear Trends of the Annular Modes   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

周天军  李建 《大气和海洋科学快报》2008,1(1):1-7

The authors exploit the remarkable connection between the Chinese climate trends and the annular modes by partitioning the trends into components linearly congruent with and linearly independent of the annular modes. Results show that the winter hemisphere annular mode has closer connection to Chinese climate than the summer one, e.g., the wetting JJA (June-July-August) rainfall trend along the Yangtze River valley and the associated temperature trends are significantly linearly congruent with the trend of the southern annular mode, while the JFM (January-February-March) climate trends are closely linked to the northern annular mode. The seasonal differences of a meridional wave-train-like chain across the equatorial Pacific associated with the annular modes are responsible for the seasonal-dependent connections to Chinese climate. Citation: Zhou, T. J., and J. Li, 2008: Climate change in China congruent with the linear trends of the annular modes, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 1, 1-7  相似文献   

非线性气候振荡模型的渐近解          下载免费PDF全文

林一骅  林万涛  莫嘉琪 《大气和海洋科学快报》2008,1(1):40-44

A class of nonlinear global climate oscillation models is considered. Using perturbation theory and its methods, solutions to the asymptotic expansions of some related problems are constructed. These asymptotic expansions of the solutions for the original problem possess a higher approximation. The perturbed asymptotic method is an analytic method. Citation: Lin, Y. H., W. T. Lin, and J. Q. Mo, 2008: Asymptotic solutions to a nonlinear climate oscillation model, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 1, 40-44  相似文献   

2006年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

陈洪滨  范学花 《气候与环境研究》2007,12(1):100-112

2006年1月中旬欧洲东部地区经历10年来的最低温天气;2月,非洲南部地区遭遇20年以来的最强降水;2006年上半年美国路易斯安那州经历111年来最干旱的时期;7月,欧美地区经历破纪录的高温炎热天气;菲律宾、印尼、印度等东南亚国家遭受暴雨洪灾。2006年春季,我国北方地区遭受18次沙尘天气的侵袭;夏季重庆等地区遭遇百年一遇的大旱;我国东南沿海等地受到多次强台风袭击;波及全国31个省(市、区)的冰雹、雷雨等强对流天气……。2006年是全球有气象记录以来的第6个高温年,极端天气和气候灾害并没有缓和的迹象;我国又经历了许多极端天气和气候灾害。  相似文献   

一个海气耦合模式对东亚夏季气候预测潜力的评估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

秦正坤  孙照渤  林朝晖  陈红  罗京佳 《气候与环境研究》2007,12(3):426-436

利用一个具有较高分辨率的海气耦合模式SINTEX-F(Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change coupled GCM)的多年回报结果,评估了该海气耦合模式对东亚区域,尤其是中国地区气候异常的预测潜力.与观测实况的比较结果表明:SINTEX-F模式对夏季降水、500 hPa高度场和地表气温都有一定的预测技巧,但是相比而言降水与高度场的回报技巧要高于地表气温;而且耦合模式对东亚地区气候异常的主要空间分布和年际变化特征也有较好的预测潜力,对500 hPa高度场效果较好;对降水异常的年际变化也有一定的预测潜力,尤其是我国中部地区效果较好,但是模式预测的降水异常的幅值较观测相对偏弱;此外对我国西部的极端气候也有一定的预测潜力.  相似文献   

全球气候模式对宁夏区域未来气候变化的情景模拟分析   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

杨侃  许吟隆  陈晓光  陈楠 《气候与环境研究》2007,12(5):629-637

利用多个全球气候模式(GCM)的情景模拟结果分析只考虑温室气体效应的IS92a GG情景和同时考虑温室气体效应和硫化物气溶胶辐射效应的IS92aGS情景以及SRESA2、B2情景下宁夏区域21世纪地面气温和降水量的可能变化,并进行不确定性分析。气候基准时段(1961~1990年)模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明,GCM对宁夏气候具有一定的模拟能力;整体上讲,GCM对地面气温的模拟值偏低,对降水量的模拟值偏高,其中ECHAM4和HadCM3对宁夏基准时段地面气温和降水量的模拟结果与观测比较接近。各GCM模拟值的平均结果显示,4种温室气体排放情景下21世纪宁夏区域气温持续升高,至21世纪末宁夏升温幅度可达4~6℃,与全国平均的增温幅度大致相当;与升温趋势相应的是降水量的增加,但降水变化呈现出很大的波动性,至21世纪末宁夏的降水变化幅度可达10%~40%。各个GCM模拟的宁夏气候变化的总趋势是一致的,但各模式在不同情景下模拟结果的差异很大,存在较大的不确定性。  相似文献   

构建一个经济-气候新模型评价气候变化对粮食产量的影响   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

丑洁明  叶笃正 《气候与环境研究》2006,11(3):347-353

将气候变化研究和农业经济研究相结合,构建了一个经济-气候新模型,用来评价全球气候变化对粮食产量影响的问题。提出在经济模型C-D生产函数中添加气候变化因子,建立一个新的评价模型,作为连接气候变化因素和经济变化因素的桥梁,并对该模型的性能及合理性进行了初步的模拟和验证。  相似文献   

Sorted stone circles in Elysium Planitia, Mars: Implications for recent martian climate     

M.R. Balme  C.J. Gallagher  J.B. Murray 《Icarus》2009,200(1):30-38

We have found sorted stone circles and polygons near the equator of Mars, using new 25 cm/pixel NASA HiRISE (High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment) images. The sorted circles occur in geologically recent catastrophic flood deposits in the equatorial Elysium Planitia region, and are diagnostic of periglacial processes: sorted polygons do not form from volcanic activity, as has been suggested for non-sorted polygons in this region. These landforms indicate that (i) a long-lived, geologically recent, active cryoturbation layer of ground ice was present in the regolith, (ii) there was some degree of freeze-thaw, and thus (iii) there were sustained period(s), likely within the last 10 Ma, in which the martian climate was 40 to 60 K warmer than current models predict.  相似文献   

Yearly and seasonal variations of low albedo surfaces on Mars in the OMEGA/MEx dataset: Constraints on aerosols properties and dust deposits     

Mathieu Vincendon  Y. Langevin  F. Poulet  A. Pommerol  M. Wolff  J.-P. Bibring  B. Gondet  D. Jouglet 《Icarus》2009,(2):395-405

The time variations of spectral properties of dark martian surface features are investigated using the OMEGA near-IR dataset. The analyzed period covers two Mars years, spanning from early 2004 to early 2008 (includes the 2007 global dust event). Radiative transfer modeling indicates that the apparent albedo variations of low to mid-latitude dark regions are consistent with those produced by the varying optical depth of atmospheric dust as measured simultaneously from the ground by the Mars Exploration Rovers. We observe only a few significant albedo changes that can be attributed to surface phenomena. They are small-scaled and located at the boundaries between bright and dark regions. We then investigate the variations of the mean particle size of aerosols using the evolution of the observed dark region spectra between 1 and 2.5 μm. Overall, we find that the observed changes in the spectral slope are consistent with a mean particle size of aerosols varying with time between 1 and 2 μm. Observations with different solar zenith angles make it possible to characterize the aerosol layer at different altitudes, revealing a decrease of the particle size of aerosols as altitude increases.  相似文献