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991.
Early structural damage identification to obtain an accurate condition assessment can assist in the reprioritization of structural retrofitting schedules in order to guarantee structural safety. Nowadays, seismic isolation technology has been applied in a wide variety of infrastructure, such as buildings, bridges, etc., and the health conditions of these nonlinear hysteretic vibration isolation systems have received considerable attention. To effectively detect structural damage in vibration isolation systems based on vibration data, three time-domain analysis techniques, referred to as the adaptive extended Kalman filter （AEKF）, adaptive sequential nonlinear least-square estimation （ASNLSE） and adaptive quadratic sum-sqnares error （AQSSE）, have been investigated. In this research, these analysis techniques are compared in terms of accuracy, convergence and efficiency, for structural damage detection using experimental data obtained through a series of laboratory tests based on a base-isolated structural model subjected to E1 Centro and Kobe earthquake excitations. The capability of the AEKF, ASNLSE and AQSSE approaches in tracking structural damage is demonstrated and compared. 相似文献
992.
ABSTRACTThere is great potential in Data Assimilation (DA) for the purposes of uncertainty identification, reduction and real-time correction of hydrological models. This paper reviews the latest developments in Kalman filters (KFs), particularly the Extended KF (EKF) and the Ensemble KF (EnKF) in hydrological DA. The hydrological DA targets, methodologies and their applicability are examined. The recent applications of the EKF and EnKF in hydrological DA are summarized and assessed critically. Furthermore, this review highlights the existing challenges in the implementation of the EKF and EnKF, especially error determination and joint parameter estimation. A detailed review of these issues would benefit not only the Kalman-type DA but also provide an important reference to other hydrological DA types.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F. Pappenberger 相似文献
993.
In this paper, we derive and study approximate balance models for nearly geostrophic shallow water flow where the Coriolis parameter is permitted to vary across the domain as long as it remains nondegenerate. This situation includes, for example, the β-plane approximation to the shallow water equations at mid-latitudes. Our approach is based on changing configuration space coordinates in the underlying variational principle in such a way that consistent asymptotics in the transformed Lagrangian leads to a degenerate Lagrangian structure. In this paper, we restrict our attention to first-order models. We show that the resulting models can be formulated in terms of an advected potential vorticity with a nonlinear vorticity inversion relation. We study the associated solvability conditions and identify a subfamily of models for which these conditions are satisfied without additional restrictions on the data. Finally, we provide the link between our framework and the theory of constrained Hamiltonian systems. 相似文献
994.
Abstract Statistical analysis of extremes is often used for predicting the higher return-period events. In this paper, the trimmed L-moments with one smallest value trimmed—TL-moments (1,0)—are introduced as an alternative way to estimate floods for high return periods. The TL-moments (1,0) have an ability to reduce the undesirable influence that a small value in the statistical sample might have on a large return period. The main objective of this study is to derive the TL-moments (1,0) for the generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution. The performance of the TL-moments (1,0) was compared with L-moments through Monte Carlo simulation based on the streamflow data of northern Peninsular Malaysia. The result shows that, for some cases, the use of TL-moments (1,0) is a better option as compared to L-moments in modelling those series. Citation Ahmad, U.N., Shabri, A. & Zakaria, Z.A. (2011) Trimmed L-moments (1,0) for the generalized Pareto distribution. Hydrol.Sci. J. 56(6), 1053–1060. 相似文献
995.
ABSTRACTA parameter estimation strategy for a conceptual rainfall–runoff (CRR) model applied to a storm sewer system in an urban catchment (Chassieu, Lyon, France) is proposed on the basis of event-by-event Bayesian local calibrations. The marginal distribution formed by locally-estimated parameters is divided into conditional functions, clustering the event-based parameters based on their transferability to similar rainfall events. The conditional functions showed to be consistent with an observed bimodality in the marginal representation, reflecting two different hydrological conditions mainly related to the magnitude of the rainfall intensities (high or low). The improvements achieved by expressing the parameter probability functions into a conditional form are shown in terms of accuracy (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion), precision (average relative interval length) and reliability (percentage of coverage) for simulating flow rate in 255 and 110 calibration/verification events. 相似文献
996.
997.
基于环境激励的结构振动测试的方法中ERA方法是重要的时域分析方法.本文主要是以随机减量法(RD)和NExT两种数据处理方法结合ERA算法,对绥化学院正在建的网架结构的基本模态参数进行测试.通过分析比较得出RD/ERA和NExT/ERA较直接ERA有更高的精度,且实测分析结果与有限元分析结果较吻合.为网架结构在环境激励下用ERA方法测试模态参数提供了实验依据. 相似文献
998.
建立了基于有限断层的芦山地震的混合震源模型,突出破裂面上滑动量分布中凹凸体的主导作用,同时借助k平方模型表达对震源复杂性认识尚不够深入所带来的随机性.混合震源模型中全局震源参数均值与局部震源参数均值的确定,主要依据统计的半经验标定公式,进一步借助截断正态分布将区域地震、地质构造、地震活动性提供的参数限值结合起来,生成最终的震源参数值.基于上述思路,本文共建立了30组芦山地震混合震源模型,进而以芦山地震8个近场观测台站为试算点,借助地震动反应谱残差评价的方法,从30组模型中选定了表达“平均”特征的混合震源模型. 相似文献
999.
ABSTRACTThere is an implicit assumption in most work that the parameters calibrated based on observations remain valid for future climatic conditions. However, this might not be true due to parameter instability. This paper investigates the uncertainty and transferability of parameters in a hydrological model under climate change. Parameter transferability is investigated with three parameter sets identified for different climatic conditions, which are: wet, intermediate and dry. A parameter set based on the baseline period (1961–1990) is also investigated for comparison. For uncertainty analysis, a k-simulation set approach is proposed instead of employing the traditional optimization method which uses a single best-fit parameter set. The results show that the parameter set from the wet sub-period performs the best when transferred into wet climate condition, while the parameter set from the baseline period is the most appropriate when transferred into dry climate condition. The largest uncertainty of simulated daily high flows for 2011–2040 is from the parameter set trained in the dry sub-period, while that of simulated daily medium and low flows lies in the parameter set from the intermediate calibration sub-period. For annual changes in the future period, the uncertainty with the parameter set from the intermediate sub-period is the largest, followed by the wet sub-period and dry sub-period. Compared with high and medium flows/runoffs, the uncertainty of low flows/runoffs is much smaller for both simulated daily flows and annual runoffs. For seasonal runoffs, the largest uncertainty is from the intermediate sub-period, while the smallest is from the dry sub-period. Apart from that, the largest uncertainty can be observed for spring runoffs and the lowest one for autumn runoffs. Compared with the traditional optimization method, the k-simulation set approach shows many more advantages, particularly being able to provide uncertainty information to decision support for watershed management under climate change.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
1000.
Haykel Sellami Isabelle La Jeunesse Sihem Benabdallah Marnik Vanclooster 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1635-1657
AbstractThe SWAT model was tested to simulate the streamflow of two small Mediterranean catchments (the Vène and the Pallas) in southern France. Model calibration and prediction uncertainty were assessed simultaneously by using three different techniques (SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol). Initially, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the LH-OAT method. Subsequent sensitive parameter calibration and SWAT prediction uncertainty were analysed by considering, firstly, deterministic discharge data (assuming no uncertainty in discharge data) and secondly, uncertainty in discharge data through the development of a methodology that accounts explicitly for error in the rating curve (the stage?discharge relationship). To efficiently compare the different uncertainty methods and the effect of the uncertainty of the rating curve on model prediction uncertainty, common criteria were set for the likelihood function, the threshold value and the number of simulations. The results show that model prediction uncertainty is not only case-study specific, but also depends on the selected uncertainty analysis technique. It was also found that the 95% model prediction uncertainty interval is wider and more successful at encompassing the observations when uncertainty in the discharge data is considered explicitly. The latter source of uncertainty adds additional uncertainty to the total model prediction uncertainty.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. GertenCitation Sellami, H., La Jeunesse, I., Benabdallah, S., and Vanclooster, M., 2013. Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1635?1657. 相似文献