Compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period     

Igor Shishlov  Romain Morel  Valentin Bellassen 《Climate Policy》2016,16(6):768-782

This article provides an ex post analysis of the compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period (2008–2012) based on the final data for national GHG emissions and exchanges in carbon units that became available at the end of 2015. On the domestic level, among the 36 countries that fully participated in the Kyoto Protocol, only nine countries emitted higher levels of GHGs than committed and therefore had to resort to flexibility mechanisms. On the international level – i.e. after the use of flexibility mechanisms – all Annex B Parties are in compliance. Countries implemented different compliance strategies: purchasing carbon units abroad, stimulating the domestic use of carbon credits by the private sector and incentivizing domestic emission reductions through climate policies.

Overall, the countries party to the Protocol surpassed their aggregate commitment by an average 2.4 GtCO₂e yr^–1. Of the possible explanations for this overachievement, ‘hot-air’ was estimated at 2.2 GtCO₂e yr^–1, while accounting rules for land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) further removed 0.4 GtCO₂e yr^–1 from the net result excluding LULUCF. The hypothetical participation of the US and Canada would have reduced this overachievement by a net 1 GtCO₂e yr^–1. None of these factors – some of which may be deemed illegitimate – would therefore on its own have led to global non-compliance, even without use of the 0.3 GtCO₂e of annual emissions reductions generated by the Clean Development Mechanism. The impact of domestic policies and ‘carbon leakage’ – neither of which is quantitatively assessed here – should not be neglected either.

Policy relevance

Given the ongoing evolution of the international climate regime and the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, we believe that there is a need to evaluate the results of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. To our knowledge there has been no overarching quantitative ex post assessment of the Kyoto Protocol based on the final emissions data for 2008–2012, which became available in late 2015. This article attempts to fill this gap, focusing on the domestic and international compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period.  相似文献   

Fisheries compliance in South Africa: A decade of challenges and reform 1994–2004     

Maria Hauck  Marcel Kroese 《Marine Policy》2006

In South Africa, fishery managers have struggled with a number of challenges in terms of compliance amidst a process of legal and policy reform since the democratic elections of 1994. The past 10 years, and more specifically the past five, have seen a significant change in compliance effort, with a particular focus on increasing law enforcement activities and capacity. This paper highlights two case studies that have been instrumental in restructuring fisheries compliance in South Africa. Although law enforcement has been significantly strengthened, greater political will and government commitment is required to implement alternative strategies that will have a long-term impact on levels of compliance.  相似文献   

层状饱和地基上刚性圆板的扭转振动及参数分析     

王国才  陈龙珠 《岩土力学》2004,25(Z2):401-404

用解析的方法首次研究了层状饱和地基上刚性圆板的扭转振动特性.运用Hankel变换求解饱和介质动力问题的控制方程,按混合边值条件建立了层状饱和地基上刚性圆板扭转振动的第二类Fredholm积分方程.数值算例给出了动力柔度系数和扭转角幅值随无量纲频率的变化曲线,与单相弹性及匀质饱和介质情况进行了对比分析,并进行了参数研究.  相似文献   

矿井围岩支护系统粘弹性分析的蠕变柔量法     

薛琳  李晓梅 《岩土力学》1997,18(2):23-28

应用粘弹性介质蠕变柔量理论，分析矿井围岩支护系统应力和变形的时间效应，提出了围岩支护系统粘弹性分析的新方法。  相似文献   

岩土类材料松弛模量的确定     

蒋斌松  周国庆 《岩土力学》2006,27(Z1):5-8

岩土材料,即,土、冻土、岩石以及混凝土具有明显的徐变和应力松弛现象。通过徐变试验可容易确定徐变柔量;而应力松弛试验难度很大,故难以通过试验确定其松弛模量,以致岩土材料的松弛模量一直没有合适方法来确定。作者直接根据岩土材料的徐变柔量,通过解析计算给出了其松弛模量的显式算式,并且给出了三个解析算例。  相似文献   

Financing REDD in developing countries: a supply and demand analysis     

《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):216-231

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) in developing countries has been at the centre of negotiations on a renewed international climate regime. Developing countries have made it clear that their ability to engage in REDD activities would depend on obtaining sufficient and stable funding. Two alternative REDD financing options are examined to find possible ways forward: financing through a future compliance market and financing through a non-offset fund. First, global demand for hypothetical REDD credits is estimated. The demand for REDD credits would be highest with a base year of 1990, using gross—net accounting. The key factors determining demand in this scenario are the emission reduction targets and the allowable cap. A proportion of emission reduction targets available for offsets lower than 15% would fail to generate a sufficient demand for REDD. Also examined is the option of financing REDD through a fund. Indirectly linking the replenishment of a REDD fund to the market is a promising mechanism, but its feasibility depends on political will. The example of overseas development assistance for global health indicates the conditions for possible REDD financing. The best financial approach for REDD would be a flexible REDD mechanism with two tracks: a market track serving as a mitigation option for developed countries, and a fund track serving as a mitigation option for developing countries.  相似文献   

A methodology for historical assessment of compliance with environmental water allocations: lessons from the Crocodile (East) River,South Africa     

Edward Riddell  Sharon Pollard  Stephen Mallory  Tendai Sawunyama 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(3-4):831-843

Abstract

Environmental flow provisions are a legal obligation under South Africa’s National Water Act (1998) where they are known as the “ecological reserve”, which is now being realized in river operations. This article presents a semi-quantitative method, based on flow–duration curve (FDC) analysis, used to assess the compliance of the Crocodile (East) River with the reserve in an historical context. Using both monthly and daily average flow data, we determine the extent and magnitude of non-compliant flows against environmental water requirements (EWRs) for three periods (1960–1983, 1983–2000, and 2000–2010). The results suggest a high degree of non-compliance, with the reserve increasing with each of these periods (14%, 35%, and 39% of the time), respectively, where effects were most pronounced in the low-flow season. The results also suggest that, whilst the magnitudes of reserve infringements for the latter period are relatively high, there appears to have been some improvement since the implementation of the river’s operating rules.