Range expansion and potential distribution of the invasive grass Bromus tectorum in southern South America on the base of herbarium records     

《Journal of Arid Environments》2013

We reconstructed the invasion history and modelled the potential distribution of the invasive grass Bromus tectorum in southern South America. On the base of herbarium data, we described two aspects of B. tectorum's range expansion over time: area of occupancy and extent of occurrence. A maximum entropy model was used to identify both climatic variables associated with B. tectorum's current distribution and potentially invasible areas. The area-of-occupancy curve showed a steady increase of the occupied area since the first collection in 1937, with no obvious asymptote. However, the extent-of-occurrence curve indicated that range expansion was not homogeneous through time, but faster between 1965 and 1980. Most invasible areas were arid and semiarid with markedly Mediterranean precipitation regime. Within this susceptible region, there were large areas containing only a few known records of B. tectorum. Our results indicate that B. tectorum has successfully expanded over much of southern South America. In addition, there seems to be room for further local invasion (i.e. an increase of its area of occupancy) over large susceptible areas within the invaded region. Overall, our results confirm the suitability of southern South America's arid environments to B. tectorum invasion, and stress the importance of long-distance dispersal in accelerating its expansion across the region.  相似文献   

帕默尔干旱指数在天山北坡典型绿洲干旱特征分析中的适用性   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘卫国  王曼  丁俊祥  吕光辉 《中国沙漠》2013,33(1):249-257

以天山北坡为实验区,采用2002-2008年精河、乌苏、石河子、蔡家湖4个气象站的气象数据,进行月的水分平衡及其各分量的多年平均值计算,然后计算各气候常数;基于气候常数计算气候适宜蒸散量、气候适宜补水、气候适宜径流量、气候适宜失水量,确定月正常气候所需的水量,即气候适宜降水量;进而计算水分距平,最终确定研究区的帕默尔干旱指数.对帕默尔干旱指数与本地的历史文献记录的实际干旱情况进行对比,验证了帕默尔干旱指数模式的可应用性,并得出了研究区内4站点的帕默尔干旱指数计算公式,根据该指数计算的结果与实际的旱情记录相符合.  相似文献   

中国南方调整水稻种植格局——一种水稻生产预先适应气候变化的选择(英文)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

马欣  吴绍洪  李玉娥  张雪艳  高清竹  伍洋 《地理学报(英文版)》2013,23(1):67-84

Rice planted in southern China accounts for 94% of the total in sown acreage and 88% of the total in production, which matters a lot to Chinese food security. However, due to the prolonged conflict between water availability and rice growth in spatial/temporal distribu-tion, rice production suffers from seasonal drought at acreage of 16%-22%, which compro-mises food production capacity and food security. Focusing on the spatial distribution of seasonal drought with rice and the practices to adapt to it, and based on an analysis of bal-anced water supply for and demand by rice at a growing season scale during 1981-2030, this paper assesses the changing seasonal drought in the process of rice production under the changing climate in the future, and identifies general rice re-cultivation options for climate change adaptation. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) Rice suggests a decline in seasonal drought, with early season rice (early rice hereafter) by 12,500 km2, middle season rice (middle rice) by 80,000 km2, and in particular late season rice (late rice) by 25,000 km2, which accounts for almost 20% of its cultivated acreage. It is indicated that due to climate change, seasonal drought in major rice producing areas tends to alleviate in general, late season rice in particular. (2) Future climate change brings about a significant impact on the spatial/temporal distribution of water resources in rice producing areas in China. Based on ’pre-designed’ adaptation actions for rice-re-cultivation, the rice cultivation pattern undergoes a significant alteration between 1981-2000 and 2001-2030. In eastern Guizhou and western Hunan, the pattern of single early plus single dry farming is changed into double cropping. In eastern Hunan, the pattern of dry cropping is changed into single early plus single dry farming. In northern Anhui, the pattern of dry farming cropping is changed into middle rice. All this is aimed at a potential adequate availability of water for rice production in the future. (3) Rice re-cultivation patterns developed in this paper help re-balance water demand and supply for rice growth using the spatial analysis tool to adapt rice growth to the changing water avail-ability from spatial perspective, and come up with rice producer-friendly re-cultivation options in response to climate change.  相似文献   

“6·28”矮子沟特大泥石流灾害成因研究     

贺拿  杨建元  陈宁生  朱云华 《地震学刊》2013,(6):671-678,697

通过对四川凉山矮子沟流域的勘查,结合遥感解译及矮子沟流域的地质活动历史,分析“6·28”矮子沟泥石流的影响因素,在此基础上分析了矮子沟泥石流的成因。“6·28”矮子沟泥石流是在地震、人类活动及干旱影响下,受强降雨激发,坡面及支沟先发生泥石流,支沟泥石流堵塞主沟泄洪通道,强降雨使堵塞体瞬间溃决形成较大山洪,山洪的强大揭底作用使沟床松散固体物质启动,沿途不断有岸坡坍塌补给,中下游段有大块石加入,规模不断增大而形成。采用形态调查法计算的泥石流流量为925．91m3／s,泥石流总量为57．4×104m3,一次固体物质总量为27×104m3。通过对矮子沟流域的物源、地形及流域的气候特征研究,得出初步结论：近期泥石流的规模和频率都会降低,但在极端干旱、地震和强降雨的偶然联合作用下,依然可能发生大规模的泥石流灾害。  相似文献   

采集参数对音频大地电磁法二维非线性共轭梯度反演结果的影响研究     

杨承志  邓居智  陈辉 《地球物理学进展》2013,28(3)

非线性共轭梯度(NLCG)算法广泛应用于音频大地电磁法(AMT)二维反演中,并且取得了良好效果.本文以Rodi(2001)提出的大地电磁法二维NLCG反演理论和算法为基础,开展AMT野外数据采集参数(测线长度、点距、频点数)对二维反演效果的影响研究.通过低阻理论模型的试验结果表明:野外数据采集参数的选择应该以探测目标体的规模、深度以及背景电阻率为依据,测线长度应大于目标体宽度和探测深度的两倍以上,异常体上方测点数及探测深度范围内的频点数至少大于三个.  相似文献   

伽马拟声波分频重构反演在储层预测中的应用     

赵继龙  熊冉  陈戈  常少英  曹鹏 《地球物理学进展》2013,28(4)

在地质和地震资料研究基础上,通过岩心、录井和测井分析,探索不同频率尺度测井曲线的储层意义,优选研究区内钻穿古近系底砂岩段砂泥薄互层储层5口探井的储层敏感曲线.在曲线预处理、标准化和敏感性分析的前提下,利用曲线分频拟合,对储层敏感曲线和声波曲线做小波多尺度分解,提取反映薄互层储层岩性变化的中频中尺度伽马曲线和反映地层速度的低频大尺度声波曲线.利用统计模型信息融合构建具有声波量纲的拟声波曲线.在地质研究和沉积演化模式的指导下,运用井约束反演的方法补充地震资料的高频和低频信息,提高地震资料的质量,预测有利储层分布.研究表明,伽马拟声波分频重构反演能有效的提高地震资料的纵向和横向分辨率,刻画复杂地质条件下的薄层储层分布.  相似文献   

基于高灵敏度检波器数据的分频匹配滤波方法及其应用(英文)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

沈洪垒  田钢  石战结 《应用地球物理》2013,10(1):15-24

具有较高自然频率的高灵敏度检波器在采集数据时可以通过压制低频信号来相对提高高频能量,但这也造成了其低频响应差的问题,如果将高灵敏度数据与常规数据进行优势组合,就可以达到拓宽频带的目的。为此,本文提出分频段匹配滤波的方法,即在保持常规数据低频优势的前提下,对其高频端进行匹配滤波,实现不同频带范围内的优势互补,从而改善地震记录。通过引入不同主频的雷克子波模拟得到具有常规数据和高灵敏度数据特点的理论模型,论证了分频匹配滤波方法的可行性。在对野外单炮地震记录处理中发现,分频匹配滤波方法拓宽了地震记录的有效频带宽度,提高了地震记录的分辨率。  相似文献   

A frequency response function change method for damage localization and quantification in a shear building under ground excitation     

Ting‐Yu Hsu  Chin‐Hsiung Loh 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(5):653-668

A frequency response function change (FRFC) method to detect damage location and extent based on the change in the frequency response functions of a shear building under the effects of ground excitation was proposed in this paper. The damage identification equation was derived from the motion equations of the system before and after the occurrence of the damage. Efforts to make the FRFC method less model‐dependent were made. Intact system matrices, which could be estimated using the measured data without the need for an analytical model, and the frequency response functions were required for the FRFC method. The effects of measurement noise and model parameter error in the FRFC method were studied numerically. The proposed FRFC method was validated by experimental studies of a six‐story steel building structure with single and multiple damage cases. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A direct analysis of flood interval probability using approximately 100-year streamflow datasets     

Ian M. Brodie  Shahjahan Khan 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):2213-2225

ABSTRACT

Series of observed flood intervals, defined as the time intervals between successive flood peaks over a threshold, were extracted directly from 11 approximately 100-year streamflow datasets from Queensland, Australia. A range of discharge thresholds were analysed that correspond to return periods of approximately 3.7 months to 6.3 years. Flood interval histograms at South East Queensland gauges were consistently unimodal whereas those of the North and Central Queensland sites were often multimodal. The exponential probability distribution (pd) is often used to describe interval exceedence probabilities, but fitting utilizing the Anderson-Darling statistic found little evidence that it is the most suitable. The fatigue life pd dominated sub-year return periods (<1 year), often transitioning to a log Pearson 3 pd at above-year return periods. Fatigue life pd is used in analysis of the lifetime to structural failure when a threshold is exceeded, and this paper demonstrates its relevance also to the elapsed time between above-threshold floods. At most sites, the interval medians were substantially less than the means for sub-year return periods. Statistically the median is a better measure of the central tendency of skewed distributions but the mean is generally used in practice to describe the classical concept of flood return period.